The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[miltonh]

Oh yeah for sure. But I think if TASM was a better movie and was more inventive and fresh, it would have grossed more and there wouldn't be all this backlash against it on the internet. I have no problem with the reboot and I actually liked TASM. It would have been dumb to make SM4 with a different cast and director. But to so many people felt like TASM was a rehash of SM1 which it kinda was. They should've skipped the origin because they didn't really change anything besides the web shooters and tried to be more inventive and creative then they were.

They just had to try something like The Incredible Hulk... use opening titles to show his origin and then just another adventure. Like Bond movies.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Can we please stop with the Raimi film talk, at least in these terms? It is pretty irrelevant.

 

[ban1o]

Uggh this movie is doing horrible in Japan. That sucks because Japan loves Spider-man. It's OW is getting trashed by Frozen's 7th weekend there.

 

[miltonh]

Japan results... Wow. Just WOW.

 

[LizardMan07]

Just WOW guys!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I was speaking with some of my students (I am a teacher) and even though the Raimi films came out just before they were born, all of them seem to prefer the Raimi films. Honestly, Sony should have worked harder to maintain a better relationship with Raimi ,Maguire and Dunst. That trio could do no wrong. Even though Spider-Man 3 was critically panned, the film grossed nearly $100 million more than its predecessor. Fans were very excited about the next installment.

Amazing Spider-Man did not meet the audience demand set up by the third Raimi film, but it had an amazing turn out for a reboot, especially compared to films like Star Trek and Batman Begins. Sadly, TASM2 seems to be losing traction. Most American movies, like most American businesses, generate most of their revenue overseas. The domestic box office is only marginally important. Pacific Rim for instance only had a lukewarm reception in North America. The film was a blockbuster overseas however, and that has led to a sequel. Even if TASM2 grosses $300 million domestically (highly improbable), it is not likely to make up sufficient revenue in the overseas market, which is why I placed my initial prediction around $550-650 million. This film will perform worse than the first film.

And as for domestic performance, Spider-Man may lose out to Captain America, which has led three weeks in a row as the number one box office film. The Avengers strategy has paid off, and people love seeing how the world building in Marvel films will lead to another exciting crossover. In a way, it is the old comicbook strategy come to life and working quite well in an all new medium.

On the positive side, Sony may wind up relinquishing their film rights to Spidey far sooner than anticipated, and that couldn't be a better development. I'd much prefer Spider-Man to be home with the rest of the Marvel universe.

Even if you convinced Maguire, Dunst and Raimi to do one more movie their salary demands would've been through the roof and it was clear the actors were ready to retire from the series based on interviews.

Then you have the quality issue. Raimi who both wrote and directed SM3 was clearly burned out. SM4 could've very well been more of the same.

The main problem with the reboot was the ugly costume, the dark tone, the weak villain, and of course the rehashed origin story. THese issues turned off too many people. If they avoided those problems there was no reason ASM2 couldn't have increased from ASM1.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Uggh this movie is doing horrible in Japan. That sucks because Japan loves Spider-man. It's OW is getting trashed by Frozen's 7th weekend there.

One country. If it does gangbusters in China, it will make up for a lot of these dips.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Can we please stop with the Raimi film talk, at least in these terms? It is pretty irrelevant.

Yeah, sure.

 

[LizardMan07]

We're putting all our hopes on China!

 

[miltonh]

One country. If it does gangbusters in China, it will make up for a lot of these dips.

it's not just one country... also other big markets like Australia, South Korea or Russia look bad.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Uggh this movie is doing horrible in Japan. That sucks because Japan loves Spider-man. It's OW is getting trashed by Frozen's 7th weekend there.

Japan really won't let it go.

 

[LizardMan07]

You know Milton you're showing a significant lack of faith in the market in Antartica and it is really starting to get on my nerves

 

[DarthSkywalker]

it's not just one country... also other big markets like Australia, South Korea or Russia look bad.

They look bad for a Spidey film in this day and age. But if it does great money in China, it would make up for those numbers. China has the biggest potential behind the US market. Now if it struggles there, well then we can start thinking up $700mil.

 

[miltonh]

They look bad for a Spidey film in this day and age. But if it does great money in China, it would make up for those numbers. China has the biggest potential behind the US market. Now if it struggles there, well then we can start thinking up $700mil.

But Sony will receive less money from China than from any other country. Just around 25-30%. To cover that difference ASM2 would have to make 150M or more in China.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, sure.

My new favorite poster.

 

[ban1o]

Yeah TASM1 opened against TDKR is china and only made 48 million because of that. There should be a huge increase in China for sure. It could make over 100 million there.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But Sony will receive less money from China than from any other country. Just around 25-30%. To cover that difference ASM2 would have to make 150M or more in China.

I don't think any of us know the specifics well enough on Sony's distribution deals to go into a territory by territory breakdown. The general idea is the film needs to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $750mil WW to break even.

 

[ban1o]

I don't think any of us know the specifics well enough on Sony's distribution deals to go into a territory by territory breakdown. The general idea is the film needs to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $750mil WW to break even.

It should get there. if it makes 250 million DOM and 500 million OS. 500 million OS is only possible if China breaks out though. So cross your fingers for that.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yeah TASM1 opened against TDKR is china and only made 48 million because of that. There should be a huge increase in China for sure. It could make over 100 million there.

ASM also opened at the very end of the summer in China.

 

[Arach Knight]

Even if you convinced Maguire, Dunst and Raimi to do one more movie their salary demands would've been through the roof and it was clear the actors were ready to retire from the series based on interviews.

Then you have the quality issue. Raimi who both wrote and directed SM3 was clearly burned out. SM4 could've very well been more of the same.

It is well known that studio interference is what led to Spider-Man 3 being so convoluted. So while Raimi was one of three screen writers, and one of two story plotters, it isn't as if the man was given free reign. The studio forced Raimi to do many things he did not want to do, most notoriously, squeeze Venom into the film.

"The main sticking point? Including Venom in the third movie, which was largely a studio decision, with Sony hoping to spawn a massive spin-off movie."

http://io9.com/5193338/sam-raimi-spider-man-3-wasnt-my-fault

 

[Tymminator]

It is well known that studio interference is what led to Spider-Man 3 being so convoluted. So while Raimi was one of three screen writers, and one of two story plotters, it isn't as if the man was given free reign. The studio forced Raimi to do many things he did not want to do, most notoriously, squeeze Venom into the film.

"The main sticking point? Including Venom in the third movie, which was largely a studio decision, with Sony hoping to spawn a massive spin-off movie."

http://io9.com/5193338/sam-raimi-spider-man-3-wasnt-my-fault

That was ridiculous. The Sinister Six solo movie idea they have now is just as bad.

 

[spider-neil]

That was ridiculous. The Sinister Six idea they have now is just as bad.

The S6 idea is a potential franchise killer.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It is well known that studio interference is what led to Spider-Man 3 being so convoluted. So while Raimi was one of three screen writers, and one of two story plotters, it isn't as if the man was given free reign. The studio forced Raimi to do many things he did not want to do, most notoriously, squeeze Venom into the film.

"The main sticking point? Including Venom in the third movie, which was largely a studio decision, with Sony hoping to spawn a massive spin-off movie."

http://io9.com/5193338/sam-raimi-spider-man-3-wasnt-my-fault

I just made a thread that specifically addresses whether there should've been a Raimi-directed SM4 and if the reboot was a mistake.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=478019

 

[Tymminator]

The S6 idea is a potential franchise killer.

Indeed. It really kind of shows they don't have a good plan or even a solid clue. Also any good they make create with Wbb's Spider-Man trilogy will just get wasted.

 

[GuestStar2004]

It is well known that studio interference is what led to Spider-Man 3 being so convoluted. So while Raimi was one of three screen writers, and one of two story plotters, it isn't as if the man was given free reign. The studio forced Raimi to do many things he did not want to do, most notoriously, squeeze Venom into the film.

"The main sticking point? Including Venom in the third movie, which was largely a studio decision, with Sony hoping to spawn a massive spin-off movie."

http://io9.com/5193338/sam-raimi-spider-man-3-wasnt-my-fault

SM3 still had the raimi formula and he took on the challenge of writing the film himself, so he was in charge of all the villains and their roles, so whatever problems are always going to be raimis fault, one of the funniest moments which shouldn't be funny is harry making mary jane dump peter in the park while he watches from a distance... muhahahahaaaa, yeah lucky she didn't tell peter about you or even hinted to him while you was standing there in the far distance

but anyway if sony made him write venom in for the spin off... why did raimi kill eddie and the symbiote off? i don't think it was for a spin off at that time