The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Chewy]

Really? I thought I remembered Depp talking about it being R rated a while ago.

 

[The Morningstar]

I hope so.

The one I fear for The Avengers the most is Battleship (it appears incredibly stupid but it features the music industry's #1 leading lady and Transformers-esque action/visuals), and the one for TDKR is The Bourne Legacy (won't revolve around Damon this time around but it is a famous franchise).

I'm hoping Prometheus ends up being the sleeper hit of the summer, but if history has taught us anything over the last couple of years in cinema, it's that awful films such as RTOF or Pirates 4 have the ability to conquer.

I really hope Prometheus is a big hit. Well first and foremost I hope it will be a great film, i'm pretty confident it will be.

 

[J.Howlett]

Battleship will only affect Avengers if the word of mouth is ridiculous on it. And make no mistake, the director, Peter Berg, is no slouch. He could shock everyone with that one.

Honestly, I think the title "Battleship" is actually hurting the film. Take away the title and just look at the visuals, it looks like a monster.

Bourne Legacy's not going to hurt Rises one bit.

The Amazing Spider-Man has two and a half weeks to do what it needs to do before Rises.

Honestly, I think the two sleeper hits will be Snow White & the Huntsman (looks epic and serious) and Pixar's Brave....

 

[The Morningstar]

Yea, for some reason people are treating Berg like he's Bay-lite. He's a much better film maker than Bay.

 

[J.Howlett]

Yea, for some reason people are treating Berg like he's Bay-lite. He's a much better film maker than Bay.

Much better.

Again, take the title off this film and just looks at the spectacle in the trailer, that thing smells like a big hit for Universal.

Don't let it be REAL good because it could totally flip the entire month of May around.

But, considering the Avengers is the event film to start off the summer, it should be fine.

The question is the holdovers. For opening weekend, you're looking at at least 147 million dollar weekend for the Avengers. By the time Battleship arrives the following Friday, Avengers will be right at or close to 200 million.

Now, if Battleship is a dud, Avengers has the entire month of May on lock down.

 

[J.Howlett]

Actually, I have it wrong. Battleship opens May 18th. That's two weeks after the Avengers.

And having looked at the calender of release dates, Avengers will be near 300 million by the time Battleship opens.

Men In Black is going to bomb, considering the budget and there's really nothing else after Battleship.

Avengers has the whole month of May to itself to do what it needs to do before Prometheus, Snow White, Brave, Rock of Ages, and G.I. Joe.

 

[BigThor]

Actually, I have it wrong. Battleship opens May 18th. That's two weeks after the Avengers.

And having looked at the calender of release dates, Avengers will be near 300 million by the time Battleship opens.

Men In Black is going to bomb, considering the budget and there's really nothing else after Battleship.

Avengers has the whole month of May to itself to do what it needs to do before Prometheus, Snow White, Brave, Rock of Ages, and G.I. Joe.

I'm definately looking forward to Snow White and after watching the superbowl tv spot and trailer for G.I. Joe I'm starting to think it's going to be a much better film than the first one.

 

[marcvader]

I don't knoe about seeing Snow White in theaters but I probably might see GIJoe. It looks like worth a watch on the big screen.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My prediction:

Domestic: 345mil

International: 405mil

I could be wrong but I don't see 400mil happening domestically. If Captain America and Thor had done 200mil plus and Iron Man 2 was better received and had grossed the 400mil everyone thought it would, yeah I'd easily predict 400mil but right now I'm just not seeing it. I still have time to change my mind but those are my predictions for now.

 

[Micromind]

Looking at a period of two months from the date of release of Avenger's, the main competition will be from -


Marvel's The Avengers - May 4

Dark Shadows - May 11

Battleship - May 18

Men in Black 3 - May 25

Snow White and the Huntsman - June 1

Prometheus - June 8

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - June 8

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - June 22

G.I. Joe: Retaliation - June 29

The Amazing Spider-Man July 3

In fact Avengers has very little competition and a very good chance to make money as not many big movies are being released, but TASM and TDKR will have to face some competition from Ice Age and The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall and The Expendables 2.

 

[KangConquers]

Actually, I have it wrong. Battleship opens May 18th. That's two weeks after the Avengers.

And having looked at the calender of release dates, Avengers will be near 300 million by the time Battleship opens.

Men In Black is going to bomb, considering the budget and there's really nothing else after Battleship.

Avengers has the whole month of May to itself to do what it needs to do before Prometheus, Snow White, Brave, Rock of Ages, and G.I. Joe.

I disagree completely. Battleship is going to fall on it's face. It will be the Green Lantern sized bomb of the Summer.

MIB3 will fight Spider-Man for #3 highest grossing movie of the summer.

 

[KangConquers]

My prediction:

Domestic: 345mil

International: 405mil

I could be wrong but I don't see 400mil happening domestically. If Captain America and Thor had done 200mil plus and Iron Man 2 was better received and had grossed the 400mil everyone thought it would, yeah I'd easily predict 400mil but right now I'm just not seeing it. I still have time to change my mind but those are my predictions for now.

I think you're underestimating the foreign audience's love of spectacle. This is a big Event movie, and is being pegged as one of the biggest movies of the summer. I can't see an International take under 500 Million.

 

[Micromind]

I don't think it will bomb, but neither movie (Battleship and MIB 3) will be great hits either, they will just fare average.

 

[Micromind]

Oh, And The Amazing Spider-Man movie will be the summer's 3rd biggest movie.

 

[Chewy]

Battleship opens a week before Avengers overseas. Almost a full month before its American opening.

That pretty much cries desperation to me

 

[KangConquers]

Oh, And The Amazing Spider-Man movie will be the summer's 3rd biggest movie.

I see both Amazing Spider-Man and MIB3 falling in the 250 Million dollar range domestically, with Avengers at $350 M, and TDKR at around $400 M.

Battleship doesn't break $120 M Domestically: Mark my words.

 

[Micromind]

Battleship opens a week before Avengers overseas. Almost a full month before its American opening.

That pretty much cries desperation to me

The studio (Universal) hasn't been doing good financially speaking for the last three years, they need a hit movie desperately, so can't blame them if they are being too much cautious.

 

[Chewy]

I think you're underestimating the foreign audience's love of spectacle. This is a big Event movie, and is being pegged as one of the biggest movies of the summer. I can't see an International take under 500 Million.

Popular characters (Iron Man and Thor) + 3D + Huge Spectacle = at least 500M overseas

Look at the massive increases in the PotC franchise and the Transformers franchise overseas, due to some of the emerging markets and the fact that OS moviegoers love their 3D spectacle

 

[Chewy]

The studio (Universal) hasn't been doing good financially speaking for the last three years, they need a hit movie desperately, so can't blame them if that are being too much cautious.

I think Snow White is going to make more than Battleship.

 

[Micromind]

I would say that with the news of Transformers reboot, the Transformers fans will go to Battleship, that alone will give it a mega boost.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Popular characters (Iron Man and Thor) + 3D + Huge Spectacle = at least 500M overseas

Look at the massive increases in the PotC franchise and the Transformers franchise overseas, due to some of the emerging markets and the fact that OS moviegoers love their 3D spectacle

Exactly, this is not even up to discussion.

 

[KangConquers]

I think Snow White is going to make more than Battleship.

Agreed. Battleship is going to be a huge flop.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't know guys, I think that Battleship looks terrible but I could see it surprising.

I see Spider-Boot doing 250mil at best. Reboot's so soon never come close to the originals. If this weren't another origin story I think it would do better. Plus ironically I think that the poor reception of Spider-Man 3 will hurt it. I just see it as another Batman Begins situation, everyone is going to predict 300 and 400mil and it's not going to get their and then people are going to lower the bar and say it was wildly successful anyway.

 

[Chewy]

The thing about Battleship is that no one cares about Taylor Gambit, Brooklyn Decker or really any of the cast. Except for Liam Neeson, and the trailers make it look like he's going to be killed off quickly.

Transformers had Optimus Prime + Shia, both of whom audiences liked.

I think Snow White is going to be the surprise hit of the summer. Popular cast, well known story, cool visuals.

 

[Iron_Stark]

The thing about Battleship is that no one cares about Taylor Gambit, Brooklyn Decker or really any of the cast. Except for Liam Neeson, and the trailers make it look like he's going to be killed off quickly.

Transformers had Optimus Prime + Shia, both of whom audiences liked.

I think Snow White is going to be the surprise hit of the summer. Popular cast, well known story, cool visuals.

And Bumblebee, he's as much a popular character among kids as Optimus Prime, if not more. (again, amongst kiddies)

Battleship will fall flat on it's face as KangConquers said earlier.

I think Avengers real threat is Dark Shadows because of the Depp/Burton/Vampire combination and Depp/Burton coming off the success of Alice.