The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[kedrell]

I'm only using WW numbers from here on out because let's face it, that's all that really matters. I don't see TDKR outgrossing TDK. I'd give it maybe a 20% chance at doing that, and TDK just barely, barely crossed the $1billion mark so I don't think TDKR will join the billion club. $800-900M range? Yeah, I can see that. The Hobbit is practically a lock for a billion. The Avengers has a tad more of a wild card side to it but it's gonna duke it out with TDKR for the #2 spot of the year. I think ASM will outgross Twilight5.

 

[kedrell]

double post

 

[warhorse78]

I sure hope ASM beats Twilight. I hate that crap with a passion.

 

[DarthAlani]

A big reason 1 billion is being cracked more than ever is the price of 3-D.

 

[warhorse78]

A big reason 1 billion is being cracked more than ever is the price of 3-D.

True. TF3 made more money than TF1, but sold less tickets. Amazing that what inflation can do in 4 years.

 

[Quasimod0]

Good thing Avengers is in 3d. is tdkr?

 

[BigThor]

Good thing Avengers is in 3d. is tdkr?

No but it is in IMAX and there's places where it has already sold out in some showing.

 

[warhorse78]

No but it is in IMAX and there's places where it has already sold out in some showing.

I don't know about TDKR, but the two nearest IMAX theaters (yes, I said two) I know the managers to both, and they said they already sold the first 5 days in each IMAX for The Hobbit. I was crushed, so, while I'll see The Hobbit opening weekend, it won't be no IMAX.

 

[DyeLorean]

Mmm 700 million sounds like a sure thing. If TF3 went over 1 billion, then hopefully Avengers can reach that figure easily too.

 

[BigThor]

Mmm 700 million sounds like a sure thing. If TF3 went over 1 billion, then hopefully Avengers can reach that figure easily too.

I feel the same way my friend. t:

 

[kedrell]

I'm sure like Iron Man 2 and Thor, The Avengers will be in IMAX for 2-3 weeks as well. Probably till MIB3 comes out unless Battleship has some IMAX time booked.

 

[DyeLorean]

Yeah, let's not forget that if some release underperforms, Avengers -or other movie- can return to Imax for another short period of time. At least that happened down here a couple of times.

 

[cherokeesam]

I'm only using WW numbers from here on out because let's face it, that's all that really matters. I don't see TDKR outgrossing TDK. I'd give it maybe a 20% chance at doing that, and TDK just barely, barely crossed the $1billion mark so I don't think TDKR will join the billion club. $800-900M range? Yeah, I can see that. The Hobbit is practically a lock for a billion. The Avengers has a tad more of a wild card side to it but it's gonna duke it out with TDKR for the #2 spot of the year. I think ASM will outgross Twilight5.

I think you're right on all points.

As for the trailer: absolutely love it, like almost everyone else here, but it's easy to see that there's still plenty of CG and post left to be done (the 360 team shot, cool as it was, is clearly only half-finished). But I'll wait and see the final trailer, and wait to see the Mainstream reaction to the Super Bowl trailer, before I start adjusting my $750 mil prediction.

Thing is, the fansites (including this one) have been very buzzy about the Super Bowl trailer today, but I keep watching for mainstream reports and haven't seen any yet. I've seen the mainstream outlets already gushing about the TASM trailer coming out in just a few hours from now, but those same sites don't mention the Avengers ad at all.

In any event, I'm still willing to bet a peanut-butter and nanner sandwich that neither Avengers *nor* TDKR joins the WW billion-dollar club.

 

[Mysteryman]

I share your opinion.
Are any of the mainstream outlets buzzing about any of The Super Bowl movie ads ?

 

[cherokeesam]

I share your opinion.
Are any of the mainstream outlets buzzing about any of The Super Bowl movie ads ?

I haven't seen mainstream discuss them yet, but there's a great chart analysis here that shows that Avengers clearly won the Super Bowl trailer battle hands down:

http://wave.wavemetrix.com/content/...sights-avengers-drives-most-intent-view-00886

 

[Shadowlord X]

It's interesting how many major releases for the year did not have Superbowl spots this year:

TASM
The Hobbit
tdkr
Prometheus
MIB III

Makes me wonder if some companies are questioning the value of Superbowl advertising.

 

[Raiden]

The Superbowl between Giants and Pats were seen by a record of 111.3 million people, according to Nielsen rating. If even a third of that audience decided to check out The Avengers after watching the trailer, then I think this movie will be doing extremely well at the box office.

 

[marcvader]

Yup, the SB this year was the most watched program in television history. Airing your ad during that telecast was beneficial to all who advertised.

 

[Mysteryman]

It's interesting how many major releases for the year did not have Superbowl spots this year:

TASM
The Hobbit
tdkr
Prometheus
MIB III

Makes me wonder if some companies are questioning the value of Superbowl advertising.

They could also be questioning if they should spend $3 million dollars for a 30 second spot .
All those films have built in audiences .
It would be a waste of money for them to air a Super Bowl Spot .

 

[04nbod]

I'm not sure. I think you are all overestimating the power of the Avengers brand. People knew that Thor and Cap were leading into Avengers and neither cracked $200M domestic. I'll stick my neck out and say $400M domestic and $900M WW. That is basically Iron Man 2's gross adding 3D and taking into account the expansion of the international market.

 

[Green Day]

I'm sure like Iron Man 2 and Thor, The Avengers will be in IMAX for 2-3 weeks as well. Probably till MIB3 comes out unless Battleship has some IMAX time booked.

One week
Dark Shadows already had a contract before Avengers announced it was in Imax.
I think MIB 3 is also in Imax.

 

[Mysteryman]

That one week for The Avengers in IMAX,
Is it the first week?
Might be a nice boost for the opening weekend.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I'm not sure. I think you are all overestimating the power of the Avengers brand. People knew that Thor and Cap were leading into Avengers and neither cracked $200M domestic. I'll stick my neck out and say $400M domestic and $900M WW. That is basically Iron Man 2's gross adding 3D and taking into account the expansion of the international market.

With all due respect to Marvel Studios, Thor and Captain America were, at best, half of what The Avengers is gonna be.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Actually I think that most of the GA still don't know about the nature of this project.

 

[Mysteryman]

Actually I think that most of the GA still don't know about the nature of this project.

One of my primary concerns in terms of the GA is that the 30 second spot is very vague .
And a lot of them might not have checked out the extended trailer .