The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[BigThor]

I still think THOR and CA:TFA did pretty well, I don't just count the domestic gross I count the worldwide grosses as well.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Domestic grosses are more important to comic book films than international. Which is why despite making more money over-seas than the dark knight did spider-man 3 is seen as a disappointment.

 

[Adamantium Man]

^ Why is that? Is international money somehow worth less?

 

[Chewy]

^ Why is that? Is international money somehow worth less?

Used to be. Studios got a smaller % of each ticket sold

That's becoming less and less true, as the markets have expanded and the studios have renegotiated their deals

These days WW is all that really matters, and you see sequels greenlit solely based on OS numbers (Wrath of the Titans, Pirates of the Caribbean 5, etc)

 

[Shadowlord X]

Yes, OS used to something like only 15%, now I believe it's up to 45%, whilst domestic is 55%.

 

[kedrell]

Well Cap & Thor are recent releases so I'm sure their WW gross is ultimately what counts for them and why both are getting sequels. Not sure how long ago this shift occurred with OS money but it sure was in effect by 2009.

 

[Blue Hero]

It was widely reported how disappointing the numbers were for the big releases last Winter.

I love how self-absorbed the movie industry is that after four years of a recession, an unemployment rate around 8%, and an underemployment rate (I.E., people who's stopped looking for work) around 15%, They're people are going to movies less.

 

[hatebox]

I love how self-absorbed the movie industry is that after four years of a recession, an unemployment rate around 8%, and an underemployment rate (I.E., people who's stopped looking for work) around 15%, They're people are going to movies less.

If that's the industry you work in of course you'll care about bad attendances. Doesn't matter that the product is something as frivolous as movies.

Anyway, my Avengers prediction is pretty much the same as a few months ago: $355m domestic, $760m worldwide. More than enough to warrant a sequel.

 

[hatebox]

The Empire assessment is actually heartening to me. If that ludicrous prediction is in line with what industry insiders expect, then The Avengers will be seen to have over-performed when the actual numbers are tallied.

I haven't seen any box office sites/publications suggest it'll be that low, word of mouth would have to be terrible after it's inevitably big opening for it to stall that hard. Comingsoon.net suggested 'very low 300s' for domestic, which I still think is rather conservative.

 

[Quasimod0]

I really hope this is the biggest movie of the summer. Imagine how much better other comic book films would be if this superhero film made over a billion. It'd be the first of it's kind to do so

 

[Chewy]

Well it won't be, TDKR is going to be gargantuan. Whatever it drops from TDK domestically it'll more than make up for with an OS bump.

I don't see anything that can unseat Avengers as #2 movie of the summer, though

 

[Quasimod0]

No hope for it to beat the dark knight?

 

[KangConquers]

I haven't seen any box office sites/publications suggest it'll be that low, word of mouth would have to be terrible after it's inevitably big opening for it to stall that hard. Comingsoon.net suggested 'very low 300s' for domestic, which I still think is rather conservative.

I think we'll see a domestic total of roughly $330 M, and a foreign of over half a billion.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't see the avengers doing much better off than either of the iron man movies. Both were low 300 mill domestic i believe.

Iron man is still the draw for the avengers, most of the people who saw either cap or thor likely saw the iron man films as well. I doubt they're this separate demo that is going to be added to the avengers.

Honestly though just based on the semi-backlash from iron man 2 and the only relative success of cap and thor I could actually see the avengers making less than 300 milllion domestic.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see the avengers doing much better off than either of the iron man movies. Both were low 300 mill domestic i believe.

Iron man is still the draw for the avengers, most of the people who saw either cap or thor likely saw the iron man films as well. I doubt they're this separate demo that is going to be added to the avengers.

Honestly though just based on the semi-backlash from iron man 2 and the only relative success of cap and thor I could actually see the avengers making less than 300 milllion domestic.

I'm with you at best I see it doing adjusted for ticket price inflation Iron Man numbers domestically. I don't that it will do under 300mil though I wouldn't exactly be shocked if it did.

 

[Weadazoid]

I'm with you at best I see it doing adjusted for ticket price inflation Iron Man numbers domestically. I don't that it will do under 300mil though I wouldn't exactly be shocked if it did.

ahh... but you also feel Thor didn't deserve the money it got nor the critical acclaim.

And honestly Thor would have been much bigger if FF5 hadn't stolen a bit of it's block buster bluster the week before.

 

[jmc]

ahh... but you also feel Thor didn't deserve the money it got nor the critical acclaim.

And honestly Thor would have been much bigger if FF5 hadn't stolen a bit of it's block buster bluster the week before.

I'll agree that F5 stole some of the thunder (no pun intended) in terms of who kicks off the blockbuster season, but I really don't think it was substantial enough to diminish the overall box office. I think the fact that all 4 superhero films last year opened between that 55-65 million range showed that's kinda the average for unknown characters opening box office (with the occasional exception).

 

[Xeno]

ahh... but you also feel Thor didn't deserve the money it got nor the critical acclaim.

And honestly Thor would have been much bigger if FF5 hadn't stolen a bit of it's block buster bluster the week before.

There are folks in these parts who think that Green Lantern was far superior to Iron Man 2 and Superman Returns was a misunderstood masterpiece.

 

[marcvader]

I'll agree that F5 stole some of the thunder (no pun intended) in terms of who kicks off the blockbuster season, but I really don't think it was substantial enough to diminish the overall box office. I think the fact that all 4 superhero films last year opened between that 55-65 million range showed that's kinda the average for unknown characters opening box office (with the occasional exception).

I actually think Cap could've done better in Thor's slot?

 

[Blue Hero]

If that's the industry you work in of course you'll care about bad attendances. Doesn't matter that the product is something as frivolous as movies.

Oops. My bad. What I meant to say was that they were pretty self-absorbed to be surprised that people weren't going to see movies. They all seemed to be shocked, and thinking: there must have been really bad movies that year, or people must not be liking movies as much--the internet is the enemy!--but it never seemed to occur to them that people weren't going to movies because of the economy, stupid!

As for predictions, I could be wrong, but I think Avengers has a chance to beat Batman. Batman won't have the boost of Heath Ledger's death, and the Avengers is such a huge event.

But Batman has his reputation. That could easily bring him to number one.

But yeah, nothing takes Avengers lower than #2.

 

[Chewy]

I'll agree that F5 stole some of the thunder (no pun intended) in terms of who kicks off the blockbuster season, but I really don't think it was substantial enough to diminish the overall box office. I think the fact that all 4 superhero films last year opened between that 55-65 million range showed that's kinda the average for unknown characters opening box office (with the occasional exception).

Well firstly the X-Men aren't unknown, they just had to deal with the two awful films that came before

And secondly Cap and Thor both opened to 65, despite opening in the 2nd weekend of other big hits (Harry Potter and Fast Five respectively), whereas Green Lantern opened to 55, opposite basically nothing

So I don't think it's fair to blanket them together and say "there's your average"

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM will beat Avengers worldwide. So will TDKR.

Avengers is looking at 4th or 5th possibly behind Ice Age.

 

[jmc]

Well firstly the X-Men aren't unknown, they just had to deal with the two awful films that came before

And secondly Cap and Thor both opened to 65, despite opening in the 2nd weekend of other big hits (Harry Potter and Fast Five respectively), whereas Green Lantern opened to 55, opposite basically nothing

So I don't think it's fair to blanket them together and say "there's your average"

I think it's perfectly fine to say that's average, I genuinely believe those films wouldn't have done much more business than what they did with or without the films from previous weeks, GL is the only one that really could have done better had the film been better, but even then I don't believe it gets much more than 65 million either. Lets not make out that those are bad openings, these were lesser known characters (Xmen included given no Wolverine) and I believe those openings reflect that.

 

[Chewy]

I know people expect 800M or something ridiculous for AMS overseas take but that's hardly a guarantee

 

[Chewy]

I think it's perfectly fine to say that's average, I genuinely believe those films wouldn't have done much more business than what they did with or without the films from previous weeks, GL is the only one that really could have done better had the film been better, but even then I don't believe it gets much more than 65 million either. Lets not make out that those are bad openings, these were lesser known characters (Xmen included given no Wolverine) and I believe those openings reflect that.

Magneto is the second most recognizable X-Man to most people, Beast and Mystique are no slouches either