The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[jmc]

Magneto is the second most recognizable X-Man to most people, Beast and Mystique are no slouches either

Come on man, it was a quasi-reboot featuring mostly lesser known actors and lesser known characters. It was never going to be a gigantic hit without the actors and characters that made it famous, even if it did turn out great.

 

[Chewy]

Come on man, it was a quasi-reboot featuring mostly lesser known actors and lesser known characters. It was never going to be a gigantic hit without the actors and characters that made it famous, even if it did turn out great.

I understand that it was never going to be a big hit but I'm saying that it was not the characters/film itself that caused its comparatively small opening. It was because Fox had driven the franchise into the ground and needed to restore its respectability

Kind of like Batman Begins with a slightly lesser known but still pretty popular lead character (Magneto)

 

[Quasimod0]

ASM will beat Avengers worldwide. So will TDKR.

Avengers is looking at 4th or 5th possibly behind Ice Age.

 

[jmc]

I understand that it was never going to be a big hit but I'm saying that it was not the characters/film itself that caused its comparatively small opening. It was because Fox had driven the franchise into the ground and needed to restore its respectability

Kind of like Batman Begins with a slightly lesser known but still pretty popular lead character (Magneto)

Well the lack of well known characters and actors would of played a part do you not agree? I do agree that the franchise had been run into the ground, but starting from scratch like they did with an entirely new cast was always going to lessen its impact. I think it, like GL and Thor, was very much a tier 2 movie and the box office reflected it.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

TAS is undoubtedly the dark horse, but I'm not so sure if Spidey can be top Iron Man and Hulk this time around.

 

[KangConquers]

ASM will beat Avengers worldwide. So will TDKR.

Avengers is looking at 4th or 5th possibly behind Ice Age.

I'm not into the whole pissing contest element of predictions. I think Avengers will do roughly $850 M worldwide. I'm not sure whether that puts ASM above or below it.

I could easily see Avengers doing $350 DOM/ $500 Int and ASM doing $250 M/ $700 M. Foreign audiences tend to go for more established franchises, while american audiences tend to grow tired of endless sequels.

All I care about is if Avengers truly has a $300 M budget, it will need to do $700-800 M worldwide just to be profitable. If this film doesn't pull at least $750 M, you can not only kiss Avengers sequels goodbye, but any risk taking at all. Marvel Studios will basically become like WB, only focusing on one superhero for the next 30 years.

 

[Gamma Burst]

There are folks in these parts who think that Green Lantern was far superior to Iron Man 2 and Superman Returns was a misunderstood masterpiece.

Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Not to mention the ones who think Avengers will be the 4th or 5th in total B.O.

 

[Chewy]

Well the lack of well known characters and actors would of played a part do you not agree? I do agree that the franchise had been run into the ground, but starting from scratch like they did with an entirely new cast was always going to lessen its impact. I think it, like GL and Thor, was very much a tier 2 movie and the box office reflected it.

Fair enough, it obviously played a role. But it's not like the movie was all C-listers; Magneto, Mystique, Xavier, Beast are all pretty well known by most moviegoers

 

[Chewy]

Yeah, it's ridiculous.
Not to mention the ones who think Avengers will be the 4th or 5th in total B.O.

It's not that ridiculous, it will be at least third, and it's very possible that one of IA4 or TASM will beat it

However there are a lot of people predicting TASM's overseas increases as though it were a sequel along the line of TF3 or POTC4 and I think that may lead to some disappointment

 

[Shadowlord X]

I'm not into the whole pissing contest element of predictions. I think Avengers will do roughly $850 M worldwide. I'm not sure whether that puts ASM above or below it.

I could easily see Avengers doing $350 DOM/ $500 Int and ASM doing $250 M/ $700 M. Foreign audiences tend to go for more established franchises, while american audiences tend to grow tired of endless sequels.

All I care about is if Avengers truly has a $300 M budget, it will need to do $700-800 M worldwide just to be profitable. If this film doesn't pull at least $750 M, you can not only kiss Avengers sequels goodbye, but any risk taking at all. Marvel Studios will basically become like WB, only focusing on one superhero for the next 30 years.

I'm doubtful that MARVEL STUDIOS would operate like WB. They are totally different business operations.

To WB, DC comics have no real priority, nor is there any love for the DC universe as a whole. They have many, many other movie projects to work on.

MARVEL STUDIOS exists to put the MARVEL UNIVERSE up on screen. In every film they do you see a love for this universe as a whole. Even if THE AVENGERS doesn't become profitable from BO with a $300 million budget I don't think they will do what WB does.

Also MARVEL's A+ list character, i.e., their Batman, SPIDERMAN is with another studio, so they cannot really pull that.

Also there is IMO a big difference between MARVEL and DC in that much more MARVEL characters IMO have the potential for mass market appeal. I can easily see successful and well done movies based up NAMOR, MOON KNIGHT, BLACK PANTHER, ANT MAN, POWER PACK, DR. STRANGE, GotG, etc., etc.

 

[Shadowlord X]

I'm a bit suspicious of that $300 MILLION budget; I suspect it includes marketing budget.


If the production budget is $300 million though then I'm impressed that MARVEL STUDIOS would have that sense of pride in their work wrt this event movie that they are going all out to make it the best that they can be.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm doubtful that MARVEL STUDIOS would operate like WB. They are totally different business operations.

To WB, DC comics have no real priority, nor is there any love for the DC universe as a whole. They have many, many other movie projects to work on.

MARVEL STUDIOS exists to put the MARVEL UNIVERSE up on screen. In every film they do you see a love for this universe as a whole. Even if THE AVENGERS doesn't become profitable from BO with a $300 million budget I don't think they will do what WB does.

Also MARVEL's A+ list character, i.e., their Batman, SPIDERMAN is with another studio, so they cannot really pull that.

Also there is IMO a big difference between MARVEL and DC in that much more MARVEL characters IMO have the potential for mass market appeal. I can easily see successful and well done movies based up NAMOR, MOON KNIGHT, BLACK PANTHER, ANT MAN, POWER PACK, DR. STRANGE, GotG, etc., etc.

Iron Man 1 and 2 made more money than any Batman movie prior to the The Dark Knight. I think Iron Man qualifies as an A-list top hero now. If Iron Man doesn't, neither do Superman or The X-Men.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Domestically Iron Man is A-list.

Worldwide Iron Man is B-list. It can't compete with A-listers like Spider-man and Batman who pull in near or over one billion dollars.

I think Avengers has a good chance of being A-list domestically AND worldwide.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

ahh... but you also feel Thor didn't deserve the money it got nor the critical acclaim.

And honestly Thor would have been much bigger if FF5 hadn't stolen a bit of it's block buster bluster the week before.

What does my view of a movie that did medicore numbers domestically have to do with my box office prediction?

You need to learn how to argue my friend.

 

[KangConquers]

Domestically Iron Man is A-list.

Worldwide Iron Man is B-list. It can't compete with A-listers like Spider-man and Batman who pull in near or over one billion dollars.

I think Avengers has a good chance of being A-list domestically AND worldwide.

I see the Avengers doing great internationally, but not on the level of TDKR, ASM or the Hobbit. I see Billion dollar grosses in the franchises future, just not on the first movie. I see Avengers performing like the first Transformers, internationally, with adjustments for inflation and 3-D.

 

[cherokeesam]

Domestically Iron Man is A-list.

Worldwide Iron Man is B-list. It can't compete with A-listers like Spider-man and Batman who pull in near or over one billion dollars.

I think Avengers has a good chance of being A-list domestically AND worldwide.

Granted, there's a pretty huge gap between Spidey's lowest (Part 2, at $783 million WW) and Iron Man's best (Part 2, at $623 million WW), but if you're going to make such an arbitrary cut-off, then you're literally limiting "A-lister" to JUST Bats and Spidey, who hold the #1-#4 spots in the superhero genre; and pettily squeezing Iron Man out at #5-#6.

 

[BigThor]

Bats only has one film that even crossed the 500 million mark, people act as if all of films brought in "Dark Knight" money.

 

[Rongxin]

The Avengers has 3D tickets advantage

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Also there is IMO a big difference between MARVEL and DC in that much more MARVEL characters IMO have the potential for mass market appeal. I can easily see successful and well done movies based up NAMOR, MOON KNIGHT, BLACK PANTHER, ANT MAN, POWER PACK, DR. STRANGE, GotG, etc., etc.

I disagree. I believe Flash and Wonder Woman each separately have more mass-appeal than all of those names combined. Most of DC's Heavy-Hitters or Heavyweights are recognized by those who don't even read comics. Hell, Aquaman himself gets more references than Namor (if he has even gotten one ever on a tv show, parody, film, book, etc) and Aquaman is portrayed as a joke, more often than not.

DC's marketability now lies in the fact that average joes know who Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, Flash and Aquaman are without having read a single comic or been a fan of the character and/or genre. For instance, a Batman-Superman crossover on the big screen would be a gargantuan pop-culture/icon deal.

Right now, I only see Wolverine, Spiderman and now Iron Man as Marvel's only Heavy-Hitters. Circumstances can certainly change in a couple years but there's never guarantees in this business. Look at Green Lantern, Ghost Rider, Dare Devil, The Punisher, etc.

Bats only has one film that even crossed the 500 million mark, people act as if all of films brought in "Dark Knight" money.

True, but TDK was the only CBM to cross two barriers (Oscar; Billion). Now, TDKR is riding off that momentum and steam, and it's not showing signs of slowing down. Chris Nolan is pushing the Batman's envelope yet again. He's taking it to places where no CBM has been before.

Whether or not TDKR will make a billion this time around, it's still the top dog in the yard and will be difficult to dethrone (in the genre) solely based on it's reputation from 2008.

That being said, I have a feeling that neither The Avengers, TDKR or TAS will make a billion. The Hobbit and Ice Age are probably destined to rule 2012. It doesn't help the case that we got another Twilight flick coming this year too.

 

[Chewy]

Bats only has one film that even crossed the 500 million mark, people act as if all of films brought in "Dark Knight" money.

Batman 89 is one of the biggest hits ever

 

[BigThor]

Batman 89 is one of the biggest hits ever

But it didn't make Dark Knight money, or anywhear near as much for that matter.

 

[DarthAlani]

Iron Man 1 and 2 made more money than any Batman movie prior to the The Dark Knight. I think Iron Man qualifies as an A-list top hero now. If Iron Man doesn't, neither do Superman or The X-Men.

Adjusted for Inflation Batman beats the hell out of Iron Man

 

[BigThor]

Adjusted for inflation ALOT of older films would be most films in recent years, that's why I don't really use it.

 

[DarthAlani]

Adjusted for Inflation:

-The Dark Knight $581 million
-Batman 89 $492 million
-Batman Forever $331 million
-Batman Returns $307 million
-Batman Begins $250 million
-Batman and Robin $183 million

Batman 89 also said nearly 63 million tickets to IM 1 44 million, Batman Forever also hit 42 million tickets sold and Batman Returns nearly 40 million.

 

[Chewy]

Adjusted for inflation ALOT of older films would be most films in recent years, that's why I don't really use it.

Then don't include it in the conversation. Many more moviegoers bought tickets to Batman 89 than to Iron Man

For it to have made Dark Knight money it would have needed about 2.5x as many people to have watched it. Silly talk