The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[PowerPacked]

JMC, I'm assuming these shows don't show in Australia, but if they do...then you must be high on crack thinking that people never saw these shows:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Transformers_TV_series

Yeah, I'm sure nobody knew there were cartoons. Except for that's what the toys were made for.

 

[mclay18]

Never surprised to see this kind of analysis from a Batty.

Stop baiting people, please.

To be fair, a LOT of superhero films these days have had a frontloaded first weekend and then drop off pretty quickly in the next several months. Last year's crop of Marvel superhero films (X-Men: FC, Thor, CA) for example. You have to go back four years to find two comparable movies that had good WOM for post-opening holds -- Iron Man and TDK. They both had impressive multiples of 3.2 and 3.4, respectively.

The Avengers has a lot of things going for it. If it's as mind-blowingly awesome as the trailers indicate it is... the opening should be bigger than IM2 and final domestic b.o. totals will easily surpass IM.

 

[Mysteryman]

It comes out two weeks before AND two weeks after Avengers

It won't be competition

Does Battleship have sneak previews before Avengers ?
How can it do both?

 

[PowerPacked]

It has international release two weeks before Avengers, domestic two weeks after.


But it looks like **** and everyone I've mentioned it to just bursts into laughter, especially when I describe the giant pegs in the trailer.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Stop baiting people, please.

More like tell them to stop trolling.

Thanks though.

 

[Mysteryman]

It has international release two weeks before Avengers, domestic two weeks after.


But it looks like **** and everyone I've mentioned it to just bursts into laughter, especially when I describe the giant pegs in the trailer.

Ah .
No need to answer Chewy,I get it .
Apparently , I need to keep a closer eye on international releases.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't see Battleship doing good. Almost everyone thinks it looks horrible... & for good reasons too.

 

[PowerPacked]

The giant pegs and aliens mostly.

Especially since, although some people say that Avengers is just a transformers ripoff: Battleship is PROMOTING ITSELF AS A TRANSFORMERS RIPOFF.

 

[Guerrilla]

Still guessing 1.2 billion worldwide when all is said and done. Too lofty?

 

[Raiden]

I don't see Battleship doing good. Almost everyone thinks it looks horrible... & for good reasons too.

The only two things good about the Battleship trailer are Liam Neeson and Brooklyn Decker. Everything else is MEH.

 

[BigThor]

Still guessing 1.2 billion worldwide when all is said and done. Too lofty?

Nah, I can totally see The Avengers making that much although nothing's guaranteed.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Still guessing 1.2 billion worldwide when all is said and done. Too lofty?

Transformers 3 and Return of the King are at 1.1 billion and Deathly Hallows part 2 is at 1.3 billion. So in order for The Avengers to gross 1.2 billion dollars, it's going to have to 1. be, not just good, but a great movie, 2. have at least almost as much action as Transformers 3 (no movie ever is going to have as much action as LOTR though) and 3. be a truly unique experience that one can only have in theaters.

 

[jmc]

Actually I'll just post the numbers here, so you don't have to look them up

Transformers 1 Foreign Gross:$390,463,587
Transformers 2 Foreign Gross:$434,191,823
~44M increase

Iron Man 1 Foreign Gross:$266,762,121
Iron Man 2 Foreign Gross:$311,500,000
~45M increase

Basically the same increase.

Now add 3D + the explosion in foreign theater counts

Transformers 2 Foreign Gross:$434,191,823
Transformers 3 Foreign Gross:$771,356,453
~340M increase

Well if we use that as a guide then Transformers 3 had a 79% increase from the previous film, 70% 3D boost and theatre boom inclusive. Lets hypothetically say the exact same equation happens base on IM2 box office, that gets you to around 550, let's be generous and throw in 50M worth of extra hype for the sake of it. You've still gotta make around 400M States side which is not an easy target in and of itself, 3d boost included. Look if it makes a billion it makes it, if its worthy of it the that's fine, but I'm not willing to bet my house on it.

 

[Chewy]

Well if we use that as a guide then Transformers 3 had a 79% increase from the previous film, 70% 3D boost and theatre boom inclusive. Lets hypothetically say the exact same equation happens base on IM2 box office, that gets you to around 550, let's be generous and throw in 50M worth of extra hype for the sake of it. You've still gotta make around 400M States side which is not an easy target in and of itself, 3d boost included. Look if it makes a billion it makes it, if its worthy of it the that's fine, but I'm not willing to bet my house on it.

It's not easy but it's possible and some feel the film will be good enough that the wom will carry it to 400M dom. Thus the 1B predictions. I have seen hardly anyone say it's a sure thing

Even if it doesn't, 550 overseas (with the 3d bump and expansion in general) and 350 domestic (IM2 + more hype + 3d) is still 900M.

Which is why a lot of people are scratching their heads at some of the ~700M predictions.

 

[warhorse78]

Transformers 3 and Return of the King are at 1.1 billion and Deathly Hallows part 2 is at 1.3 billion. So in order for The Avengers to gross 1.2 billion dollars, it's going to have to 1. Be a, not just good, but great movie, 2. have at least almost as much action as Transformers 3( no movie ever is going to have as much action as LOTR though) and 3. Be a truly unique experience that one can only have in theaters.

Well, let's see. For starters, I was on the 800 million bandwagon, but that was before the latest trailer.That aside, Joss Whedon, to me, is like J.J. Abrahms, he just keeps getting better and better with each project, and with a top notch cast, so far very good direction and what's going to be a top notch script, I'm pretty sure this movie is going to be damn great.

You have Loki and a huge alien army trying to dominate Earth, and in this, there is going to be unbelievable epic action and spectacle, so no worries there.

3rd. I watched the trailer on my lil computer screen, and it was great. I transferred that image onto my big screen HD tv, I was awestruck. I'm going to check this thing out over the weekend on an IMAX screen, I'm pretty sure all of the spectacle is better off seeing on the big screen. I'm also expecting so much will be going on, you'd really not be getting the whole thing in one viewing, so multiple viewings are going to be needed.

 

[Dark Knight]

More like tell them to stop trolling.

Thanks though.

I wasn't trolling. I gave valid reasons as to why I think Avengers will not make the 1 billion WW mark in an Avengers BO thread and wasn't attacking anyone. People automatically assume I was trolling because my name is Dark Knight and I have Batman avatar.

Unreal. Oh well.

I guess if I said, hey...Avengers will make 1 billion WW because of this and that....than I wouldn't be trolling.

Craziness in here.

 

[Dr. Sid Jawtug]

@ Dark Knight
If you admit that the Avengers isn't just a "heavy special effects spectacle film", then I may forgive you.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I wasn't trolling. I gave valid reasons as to why I think Avengers will not make the 1 billion WW mark in an Avengers BO thread and wasn't attacking anyone. People automatically assume I was trolling because my name is Dark Knight and I have Batman avatar.

Unreal. Oh well.

I guess if I said, hey...Avengers will make 1 billion WW because of this and that....than I wouldn't be trolling.

Craziness in here.

It's fair to assume you're biased though, based on what you said in an old thread that one user posted in The Avengers- THEATRICAL TRAILER Discussion Thread. And that was back in 2008, when only 2 MCU movies had been released. Something along the lines of "The Avengers will be for kids while TDKR will be aiming for oscars"

I'm not saying you are biased now, but if you want to be taken seriously in an Avengers forum, don't present yourself as someone who writes off a movie 4 years in advance.

 

[Chewy]

I wasn't trolling. I gave valid reasons as to why I think Avengers will not make the 1 billion WW mark in an Avengers BO thread and wasn't attacking anyone. People automatically assume I was trolling because my name is Dark Knight and I have Batman avatar.

Unreal. Oh well.

I guess if I said, hey...Avengers will make 1 billion WW because of this and that....than I wouldn't be trolling.

Craziness in here.

Hey. Remember when you dismissed any and all negative talk about Green Lantern's BO prospects, no matter who it was from, or what the content was, with "Marvel fanboys getting nervous! LOL! Just wait til this movie crushes Thor and Captain America! LOL!"

Do you not see how some might find this response a tad hypocritical?

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Hey. Remember when you dismissed any and all negative talk about Green Lantern's BO prospects, no matter who it was from, or what the content was, with "Marvel fanboys getting nervous! LOL! Just wait til this movie crushes Thor and Captain America! LOL!"

Do you not see how some might find this response a tad hypocritical?

Which is why I never publicly proclaim the future of a film. Writing off Battleship would be my first time actually. There's this saying, "It's better to be silent and thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt", that applies to Dark Knight. You can't get mad at people for questioning you when in the past you've said things that indicate you may have bias.

 

[Mysteryman]

Which is why I never publicly proclaim the future of a film. Writing off Battleship would be my first time actually. There's this saying, "It's better to be silent and thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt", that applies to Dark Knight. You can't get mad at people for questioning you when in the past you've said things that indicate you may have bias.

The saying you refer to is the exact reason, I am not making any specfic box office predictions this year.
But , I do believe the myth Of "Superhero Fatigue " will be dispelled this Summer.

 

[eddy]

Yeah, I'm sure nobody knew there were cartoons. Except for that's what the toys were made for.

This is getting off topic but this is incorrect. The cartoon was made for the toys. Not the other way around. The cartoons of the 80's were almost all made to sell toys.

90s cartoons are so much better.

 

[Chewy]

This is getting off topic but this is incorrect. The cartoon was made for the toys. Not the other way around. The cartoons of the 80's were almost all made to sell toys.

90s cartoons are so much better.

Beast Wars!

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles!

Batman TAS!

X-Men TAS!

Spider-Man TAS!

Childhood was so fun

 

[flickchick85]

Beast Wars!

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles!

Batman TAS!

X-Men TAS!

Spider-Man TAS!

Childhood was so fun

Superman TAS!

Gargoyles!

Oh 90's, my 12-year-old self scoffs in disbelief at how much I miss you now.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This is getting off topic but this is incorrect. The cartoon was made for the toys. Not the other way around. The cartoons of the 80's were almost all made to sell toys.

90s cartoons are so much better.

It doesn't matter why they were made, the 80's had the most inventive and imaginative cartoons.

Plus the 80's paved the way for the 90's toons (which were mostly comic book commercials).

Show some respect.