The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Gamma Burst]

Hey. Remember when you dismissed any and all negative talk about Green Lantern's BO prospects, no matter who it was from, or what the content was, with "Marvel fanboys getting nervous! LOL! Just wait til this movie crushes Thor and Captain America! LOL!"

Do you not see how some might find this response a tad hypocritical?

Only a 'tad'?

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Whoever voted 300 million, you are kidding right?

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Also, trailer hit 17 million views now.

Oh, sorry, that was me.

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Delete

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Oh my have no idea why i just quoted you haha im getting tired, im going to bed after that mistake.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Whoever voted 300 million, you are kidding right?

combocaz might have a reason to vote like that. who knows?

 

[04nbod]

Never underestimate kids' movies. "Experts" like to try to focus on target audience demographics and talk about this age group or this ethnicity or this gender or this social class, but the fact remains that tweens and younger kids can account for more box office clout than grownups any old weekend.

And they almost always do well overseas and have great legs.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=*****nboots12.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=cars2.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=despicableme.htm

 

[metaphysician]

My own prediction is that the Avengers will gross at *least* into the 800M range WW.

-It has RDJ as Tony Stark. That alone is a huge draw, that the marketing has emphasized. Basically, I see everyone who went to see IM1 and IM2 going to see Avengers.

-It has Captain America and Thor, both of whom had moderately successful movies. There's at least *some* non-crossover audience to be had.

-It has obvious and marketed "big explosions" summer blockbuster elements, which should draw in the general summer blockbuster audience more than, say, Thor did.

-The latest trailer set a new record for views online, which suggests definite interest.

-Strong positioning of release, with relatively little real competition.

-Growing international market.

-3D bump.

All these reasons combined make me think that, at a bare minimum, Avengers will manage 20% better gross than Iron Man 2. Now, how high it could go? I think a billion is not certain, but its not out of the question.

 

[eddy]

Whoever voted 300 million, you are kidding right?

I voted 500 million I was trying to be conservative and all we had was the first trailer to go on at the time.

 

[DarthAlani]

Boxoffice.com is predicting a $155m opening, with a $370m total domestic.

 

[Dark Knight]

Wow. I just looked at Lorax's 70 million opening on BOM. Talk about surprising.

A bit surprising, but in way not really. The kids animtaed films that have plenty of color usually are pretty dominate at the BO.

 

[Dark Knight]

Boxoffice.com is predicting a $155m opening, with a $370m total domestic.

Sounds about right, but I would estimate higher for the domestic around $400M and the foreign BO around $300-350M.

$850 million max for the WW BO IMO.

 

[eddy]

A bit surprising, but in way not really. The kids animtaed films that have plenty of color usually are pretty dominate at the BO.

Yeah but almost all of them flopped last year.

I think 850 million worldwide is respectable. The people who are saying "billion or bust" are setting themselves up for disappointment. If it happens great, but don't bet the farm on it.

 

[BigThor]

Boxoffice.com is predicting a $155m opening, with a $370m total domestic.

If this film does have a 155 million domestic opening it's going to make quite a bit more than 370 million total.

 

[eddy]

Yeah they must expect the movie to be pretty front loaded. I hope all the predictions from movie sites are low so that when the movie IS big it blows all of them away.

 

[Liam_H]

$155 million opening and $370 seems about right. That's about 40% of its total, most movies that open that high are right within that range.

 

[BigThor]

Yeah they must expect the movie to be pretty front loaded. I hope all the predictions from movie sites are low so that when the movie IS big it blows all of them away.

Good point

$155 million opening and $370 seems about right. That's about 40% of its total, most movies that open that high are right within that range.

I think if a high quality film opens with 155 milion it's going to atleast cross the 400 million mark domestically.

 

[DarthAlani]

With a opening in that range , $400m Domestic should be the goal.

 

[Shadowlord X]

At first I was thing around $850 million, but based on the exposure and response to the Superbowl spot, the response to the trailer (especially from non-comicbook fans), and the universal reports of being a fantastic movie (which even non-comicbook fans have LOVED), I think we have the potential for a phenomenon here.

 

[Liam_H]

I think if a high quality film opens with 155 milion it's going to atleast cross the 400 million mark domestically.

Why would that be so? In this day most movies that open that high are front loaded because most of the people that will see the movie will have seen it. Especially in the summer when other huge movies are coming in.

 

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

I voted 500 million I was trying to be conservative and all we had was the first trailer to go on at the time.

I understand conservative and your guess is fine, but for someone to think that it would only make 300 and not make a profit is lying to themselves.

 

[Chewy]

Sounds about right, but I would estimate higher for the domestic around $400M and the foreign BO around $300-350M.

So essentially you don't think it's going to increase overseas from Iron Man 2 at all? lol

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Why would that be so? In this day most movies that open that high are front loaded because most of the people that will see the movie will have seen it. Especially in the summer when other huge movies are coming in.

They'd see it again and again because it's extremely good, that's why. Twilight is usually front loaded because after the huge opening, the low quality of the film kicks in and no one but obsessed fangirls see it after that. Harry Potter is pretty front loaded, but it's also pretty high quality, but those movies flirt with a billion constantly so that's a moot point.

 

[Liam_H]

We're talking about domestic not international. Most people do not pay to see a movie over and over again. Twilight is essentially for the fans and Harry Potter applies to that to a lesser extent. HP7.2 was generally regarded as pretty good but that was front loaded considering it made $168 million opening weekend but earned $380 million total.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

We're talking about domestic not international. Most people do not pay to see a movie over and over again. Twilight is essentially for the fans and Harry Potter applies to that to a lesser extent. HP7.2 was generally regarded as pretty good but that was front loaded considering it made $168 million opening weekend but earned $380 million total.

Avengers will probably appeal to the US more than Harry Potter though.