The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread

[Chewy]

I was talking about all three of them. Even Spider-Man 3.

Facts are, people outside the US just don't give a crap about those movies unless Spider-Man or Batman are in them and even then they don't make as much as POTC or HP.

They don't care about Thor or Cap or Hulk. For them it's basically Iron Man 3, and you could expect it to make as such outside the US.

Alright, well then you have to be aware that the overseas market of 2002 and 2004 is not even close to what the overseas market of 2012 is.

Transformers 1 made "only" 380M overseas back in 2007. PotC 1 made "only" 350M back in 2003. Similar numbers to the first 2 Spidey films.

What PotC and HP and TF have in common with Spidey, and Avengers, is large scale spectacle.

Thor punching the Destroyer armor once and smacking Loki around for 90 seconds is not huge scale spectacle.

In countries like China and Russia and South Korea, the number of theaters playing American films has been growing at an absurd rate. I think it's been tripling every year for the past 3 years. And films with large scale spectacle, especially films with 3D large scale spectacle, have been HUGE OS. Like, mindbogglingly huge.

Saying it's like Iron Man 3 OS is accurate. It's like IM3, with HUGE HUGE action (something the first two didn't have), and in 3D (something the first two weren't). Look at the OS increases of franchises like Transformers and Pirates once they added 3D.

 

[PowerPacked]

First of all: Avengers has big spectacle. You can easily see this from the trailer.

Second of all:

 

[Spider-Vader]

Toy Story 3 made 1 billion because it was a fantastic movie. A fantastic movie that was the sequel to a dear part of alot of people's childhoods.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

I was talking about all three of them. Even Spider-Man 3.

Facts are, people outside the US just don't give a crap about those movies unless Spider-Man or Batman are in them and even then they don't make as much as POTC or HP.

They don't care about Thor or Cap or Hulk. For them it's basically Iron Man 3, and you could expect it to make as such outside the US.

You can't just assume that. There's no facts supporting the claim. Just because superhero movies haven't done as well overseas yet doesn't mean it's because they don't care about them. There's a first time for everything you know.

Toy Story 3 made 1 billion because it was a fantastic movie. A fantastic movie that was the sequel to a dear part of alot of people's childhoods.

And The Avengers won't be? It may not have been a part of "a lot" of people's childhoods, but I fully expect a fantastic movie.

 

[cherokeesam]

Alright, well then you have to be aware that the overseas market of 2002 and 2004 is not even close to what the overseas market of 2012 is.

Transformers 1 made "only" 380M overseas back in 2007. PotC 1 made "only" 350M back in 2003. Similar numbers to the first 2 Spidey films.

What PotC and HP and TF have in common with Spidey, and Avengers, is large scale spectacle.

Thor punching the Destroyer armor once and smacking Loki around for 90 seconds is not huge scale spectacle.

In countries like China and Russia and South Korea, the number of theaters playing American films has been growing at an absurd rate. I think it's been tripling every year for the past 3 years. And films with large scale spectacle, especially films with 3D large scale spectacle, have been HUGE OS. Like, mindbogglingly huge.

Saying it's like Iron Man 3 OS is accurate. It's like IM3, with HUGE HUGE action (something the first two didn't have), and in 3D (something the first two weren't). Look at the OS increases of franchises like Transformers and Pirates once they added 3D.

I don't think you can safely say *anything* about viewer interest in 3D other than the fact that 3D markup artificially inflates the hell out of ticket prices and artificially inflates box office over actual ticket sales.

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of audiences around the world are sick to death of being enslaved to the marketing gimmick.

 

[warhorse78]

I don't think you can safely say *anything* about viewer interest in 3D other than the fact that 3D markup artificially inflates the hell out of ticket prices and artificially inflates box office over actual ticket sales.

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of audiences around the world are sick to death of being enslaved to the marketing gimmick.

Nope, I'm afraid not. At least not in the Asian countries. And when they come to the USA, they love the 3D over 2D. Absolutely love it. I work with a couple of Chinese, and Japanese and 5 Vietnamese. They all love movies, we all love talking about them, but they are the first to say, if it ain't in 3D, they ain't watching it on the big screen.

 

[Chewy]

I don't think you can safely say *anything* about viewer interest in 3D other than the fact that 3D markup artificially inflates the hell out of ticket prices and artificially inflates box office over actual ticket sales.

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of audiences around the world are sick to death of being enslaved to the marketing gimmick.

You can safely say lots of things. The numbers speak for themselves

 

[cherokeesam]

You can safely say lots of things. The numbers speak for themselves

Here's what the numbers say:

Adjusted for inflation, there are exactly 3 3D films in the Top 100 Grossing Films of All Time. They are Avatar (at #14, far below its "OMG #1 top-grossing movie of all time" rating *before* inflation), Toy Story 3 at #88, and HP:TDH2 at #100.

Again, 3D is a marketing gimmick that inflates ticket prices to make box office numbers look like huge ticket sales. But there's a big difference between box office and # of actual tickets sold. That's why the AFI (Adjusted for Inflation) stats are the ones that tell the true story.

 

[Liam_H]

You can't really compare movies altogether since habits have changed a lot over the decades.

 

[Chewy]

When things cost more fewer people will buy them.

As films cost more to make they have had to charge more per ticket.

The industry has to adjust, every industry has to adjust.

And you are talking domestically. I am not. Ticket sales for big 3D movies have been gargantuan in foreign markets, specifically Asian countries

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Here's what the numbers say:

Adjusted for inflation, there are exactly 3 3D films in the Top 100 Grossing Films of All Time. They are Avatar (at #14, far below its "OMG #1 top-grossing movie of all time" rating *before* inflation), Toy Story 3 at #88, and HP:TDH2 at #100.

Again, 3D is a marketing gimmick that inflates ticket prices to make box office numbers look like huge ticket sales. But there's a big difference between box office and # of actual tickets sold. That's why the AFI (Adjusted for Inflation) stats are the ones that tell the true story.

While it is true that it's a marketing gimmick, I firmly believe that it is in no way a film making gimmick.

 

[Liam_H]

While it is true that it's a marketing gimmick, I firmly believe that it is in no way a film making gimmick.

But most of the movies that are in 3D are for the former reason not the latter. Its why we have so many post conversion crap.

 

[Mysteryman]

Are there any recent 3D films that have not done as well some of the others have in Europe ?
How did The Three Musketeers do over there?
It tanked here.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

But most of the movies that are in 3D are for the former reason not the latter. Its why we have so many post conversion crap.

According to these guys The Avengers is looking to be good post conversion.
http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=379229&page=4
Maybe it's not the actual post conversion that's crap, but rather the effort put forth by the post converters.

 

[Chewy]

Are there any recent 3D films that have not done as well some of the others have in Europe ?
How did The Three Musketeers do over there?
It tanked here.

It pretty much tanked everywhere

But John Carter, which is tanking in the US and Europe, just set the opening day record in Russia

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Here's what the numbers say:

Adjusted for inflation, there are exactly 3 3D films in the Top 100 Grossing Films of All Time. They are Avatar (at #14, far below its "OMG #1 top-grossing movie of all time" rating *before* inflation), Toy Story 3 at #88, and HP:TDH2 at #100.

Again, 3D is a marketing gimmick that inflates ticket prices to make box office numbers look like huge ticket sales. But there's a big difference between box office and # of actual tickets sold. That's why the AFI (Adjusted for Inflation) stats are the ones that tell the true story.

3D is still huge overseas.

and domestically, how many movies have done better than 3D blockbusters since the recent 3D craze.

answer: The Dark Knight and that's it.

 

[kedrell]

THG is going to open a lot bigger than Lorax. A lot

We'll see. But I think assuming THG=Twilight is very premature.

 

[kedrell]

3D is still huge overseas.

and domestically, how many movies have done better than 3D blockbusters since the recent 3D craze.

answer: The Dark Knight and that's it.

TDK came in before the 3-D craze. The 3-D craze didn't really start until Avatar.

 

[marcvader]

I'm thinking Hunger Games is going to be huge. It just has that look. Trailers for it are top notch.

 

[cherokeesam]

3D is still huge overseas.

and domestically, how many movies have done better than 3D blockbusters since the recent 3D craze.

answer: The Dark Knight and that's it.

Well, yeah, there's TDK.
And The Twilight Saga. And The Hangover 1 & 2. And Fast Five. And MI: Ghost Protocol. And Sherlock Holmes. And Inception. The Karate Kid. True Grit. Star Trek. The Blind Side. Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Squeakuel. Night at the Museum. 2012. Hancock. Wall-E. Kung Fu Panda, the first one. Madagascar. Quantum of Solace. And oh yeah, those Iron Man films.

But other than those, yeah, no, nothing beats 3D at the box office

 

[Chewy]

3D craze started with Avatar. Majority of those movies came before Avatar.

And we were discussing the effect 3D had overseas. I'm not sure how that got distorted into a domestic discussion. But obviously American filmgoers are very picky with their 3D filmgoing tendencies.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well, yeah, there's TDK.
And The Twilight Saga. And The Hangover 1 & 2. And Fast Five. And MI: Ghost Protocol. And Sherlock Holmes. And Inception. The Karate Kid. True Grit. Star Trek. The Blind Side. Alvin & The Chipmunks: The Squeakuel. Night at the Museum. 2012. Hancock. Wall-E. Kung Fu Panda, the first one. Madagascar. Quantum of Solace. And oh yeah, those Iron Man films.

But other than those, yeah, no, nothing beats 3D at the box office

Um, none of those beat 3D movies like Toy Story 3, Transformers 3, Alice in Wonderland or Harry Potter 8.

Recently the biggest movies have been in 3D both domestically and overseas.

 

[The Morningstar]

I was talking about all three of them. Even Spider-Man 3.

Facts are, people outside the US just don't give a crap about those movies unless Spider-Man or Batman are in them and even then they don't make as much as POTC or HP.

They don't care about Thor or Cap or Hulk. For them it's basically Iron Man 3, and you could expect it to make as such outside the US.

That's strange, considering Thor made most of it's money outside the US.

Avengers doesn't remotely look like any other superhero movie seen before. It looks like a big, spectacular alien invasion movie... that has superheroes. If you don't think that will have people buzzing, then I don't know what world you're on.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

That's strange, considering Thor made most of it's money outside the US.

Avengers doesn't remotely look like any other superhero movie seen before. It looks like a big, spectacular alien invasion movie... that has superheroes. If you don't think that will have people buzzing, then I don't know what world you're on.

So did Captain America

 

[Selim844]

What do you mean by it won't "touch" the OW record? You mean it won't come close, or it won't break it? If it's marketed right and if it's good enough I think it could. John Carter's 25% Friday to Saturday boost came from good WOM, If the Avengers is actually a better than it's hyped up to be than it's possible.

I mean it wont come close. People were all hyped up the same way when Iron Man 2 was about to come out, that it would break the Dark Knight record.. It didn't even come close. Avengers will do better than Iron Man 2, but I don't think it will break the Dark Knight's old record ($158) or come close to the new one ($169).

As far as overseas goes, the only superhero character that makes top dollars is Spider-Man, and then Batman. I doubt the rest of the world is all that hyped up about Avengers as you guys are in America.