The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

The projected figures are getting ever crazier!

Things are just getting warmed up. t:

 

[Kuwolski]

I'm gonna bask in the glory of this film's success.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

My theater was half full but that's normal in my suburb. I rarely have to worry about sellouts. (awesome)

 

[Iceman]

Things are just getting warmed up. t:

Will be furnace level by Sat/Sun!

 

[Adder]

A billi?

hope so.

 

[MadVillainy]

I don't know but man this movie is blowing up will need to see what kind of legs it has in like weekend 2 and 3 first and what its os numbers are like. Is the movie out ever where now?

I mean what's the next major blockbuster being released?
Pacific Rim 2? This thing has basically free run for a bit. It might even stay #1 until Ready Player One

 

[Iceman]

I mean what's the next major blockbuster being released?
Pacific Rim 2? This thing has basically free run for a bit. It might even stay #1 until Ready Player One

I don't see that much excitement for PR2.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

BP will likely be #1 for the next 3 weeks before likely getting bumped by A Wrinkle in Time, which opens March 9th. If that movie doesn't do it, Tomb Raider opens the next week.

 

[MadVillainy]

I don't see that much excitement for PR2.

Bingo.

There's no excitement for any movie coming out in March. Ready Player One, Tomb Raider, Wrinkle in Time..BP has a long run ahead of it. Think about Deadpool and how it was really the only movie worth a damn for a minute after it was released

BP will likely be #1 for the next 3 weeks before likely getting bumped by A Wrinkle in Time, which opens March 9th. If that movie doesn't do it, Tomb Raider opens the next week.

Oh yeah I forgot about those 2. They even showed the Wrinkle in Time trailer during my BP screening

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I don't see that much excitement for PR2.

I’m pretty pumped for it.

Sounds like a big night for BP. Anything above 20 — heck anything above 12 of so — would be amazing for a non-holiday opening night in February. Big weekend ahead. I can believe 200 now.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

According to Deadline, it's looking like BP is tracking for a $25 million Thursday night opening, which would match CA: CW and trail only AoU's $27.9 million opening. Deadpool did only $12 million on opening night so BP is looking to double that total.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

 

[Iceman]

According to Deadline, it's looking like BP is tracking for a $25 million Thursday night opening, which would match CA: CW and trail only AoU's $27.9 million opening. Deadpool did only $12 million on opening night so BP is looking to double that total.

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-thursday-night-preview-box-office-1202291093/

Matching CW would be seriously good for a solo film.

 

[Iceman]

I’m pretty pumped for it.

Sounds like a big night for BP. Anything above 20 — heck anything above 12 of so — would be amazing for a non-holiday opening night in February. Big weekend ahead. I can believe 200 now.

$200m is a beautiful number, and already halfway to $400m. Crazy times!

 

[Iceman]

Bingo.

There's no excitement for any movie coming out in March. Ready Player One, Tomb Raider, Wrinkle in Time..BP has a long run ahead of it. Think about Deadpool and how it was really the only movie worth a damn for a minute after it was released

I'll see all of those, but I'm not massively excited for them.

 

[MadVillainy]

BP also, similar to Wonder Woman, has a large cultural movement behind it that can't be ignored. It's really going to get those people who maybe don't see SH movies to see it

 

[The Chris]

BP also, similar to Wonder Woman, has a large cultural movement behind it that can't be ignored. It's really going to get those people who maybe don't see SH movies to see it

Yep, like my family. This is the first time we're seeing a film together in the theater in a couple of years.

 

[iEquinox]

Deadline: Black Panther’ Arrives: Thursday Previews Pacing Around $25M – B.O. Estimate Update

From the same article, audience reactions are extremely good:

in ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience reactions Black Panther is flying off the charts with an enormous 91% definite recommend (Typically anything in the 70% range is pretty good) and an overall 96% positive score and five-star rating. Those over 25 at 61% are the biggest crowd turning out with M25+ (34%), F25+ (27%), M25- (21%) an F25- (18%).

For comparison, the highest definite recommend score out of 2017's superhero movies during Thursday previews was 85%(and that was the highest by quite a big margin, with 77% being the 2nd highest)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

What in the actual f**k?? 25m in previews would match CA:CW. Wow.

From Deadline:

Other records being broken: Advance ticket sales continue to go wild over at Fandango with Black Panther now their fourth-biggest pre-seller of all-time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. A few weeks ago, Fandango reported that Black Panther is their biggest superhero ticket-seller.

Note there is a margin of error when shooting from the hip this early. Tonight’s numbers could be much higher by morning. If Black Panther continues on this pace, it’s looking approximately at $65M for Friday (including Thursday), $161M over three and $180M-plus for four.

Absolutely ridiculous. Nobody in their right mind would have thought about these numbers even 2-3 months ago. This is madness.

 

[Iceman]

From the same article, audience reactions are extremely good:

For comparison, the highest definite recommend score out of 2017's superhero movies during Thursday previews was 85%(and that was the highest by quite a big margin, with 77% being the 2nd highest)

Damn, even more huge signs of something crazy going on.

 

[Raiden]

What in the actual f**k?? 25m in previews would match CA:CW. Wow.

From Deadline:





Absolutely ridiculous. Nobody in their right mind would have thought about these numbers even 2-3 months ago. This is madness.

That's amazing, and I think the final numbers might actually end up higher.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

That's amazing, and I think the final numbers might actually end up higher.

Absolutely. Just a week ago I was saying that I can see 160m+ for the 3 day weekend and here we are talking about the possibility of the same while we have only the preview numbers to go off on. This is frankly insane. With sold out late night shows and west coast numbers, the OD should come in higher than these early industry tracking. I suspect it'll be closer to 75 million when the actuals come in. I haven't done any number crunching yet but doing 3 times the previews (movies that are in and around [15m-25m] after previews) is a good bet for the OD. So 75 million is very much on the cards.

 

[KevTravels]

Could anyone have ever predicted this?

1 year ago i'd have predicted 600 million worldwide.

6months ago I'd have predicted 700 million.

Now it looks like 900 is possible.

 

[iEquinox]

The Thursday preview number is huge:

‘Black Panther’ Arrives: Thursday Previews Come In At $25.2M – Friday Update

Black Panther‘s previews are exactly where we told you we would see them and Disney is reporting $25.2M this morning. This is the second best Thursday ever for a Marvel movie after Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M) and some nickels above Captain America: Civil War ($25M).

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

Could anyone have ever predicted this?.

Most black nerds like myself thought 600m was a slap in the face


The projections didn't account for black dollars. This was gonna be huge the moment the casting announcements started

 

[KevTravels]

Most black nerds like myself thought 600m was a slap in the face


The projections didn't account for black dollars. This was gonna be huge the moment the casting announcements started

I'm such a fool. I have really underestimated all of Marvel, but never again.