The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread

[Raiden]

A substudio (Marvel) making over 2.4 billion in a single year?

Completely unprecedented and ground breaking.

That's more than many full-fledged movie studios, I'd think.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

oh and i also see a lot of disagreement over how well the last jedi did so it feels like it's a very subjective topic which is odd because you'd think numbers could speak for themselves

This is a sketchy territory. TLJ's world-wide numbers are still huge but I personally thought it was going to do better and end up at a higher final total. It has all to do with expectations tho. TLJ is a sequel to a movie that made 2B WW and it also happens to be the biggest movie ever in the domestic market. So expectations for TLJ was already very high to begin with and the OW was gigantic enough to indicate a bigger final haul. So TLJ did well but it could very well have done more so in that sense, I would call it a disappointment.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

That's more than many full-fledged movie studios, I'd think.

In the domestic BO, Vol 2+Ragnarok (701m) is only slightly behind Sony-SM:H (725.7m) & MCU >> Paramount & Lionsgate's entire 2017 movie slate.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-opening-weekend-results-international-box-office-1202289446/

Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther bounded into the UK, Taiwan and Hong Kong in its openings on Tuesday, landing an estimated $5.2M and No. 1s in the three markets. In the UK, it notably topped both Doctor Strange and Thor: Ragnarok‘s first-day performances. It’s early on the Ryan Coogler-directed superhero movie, which rolls out in 69% of the international box office footprint this week, but these are very encouraging launches. While the overseas run has barely begun, Black Panther kicked off mightily versus the best of the deeper Marvel Cinematic Universe. One industry source, based on the first numbers out of South East Asia, believes the movie is likely to expand beyond the core Marvel audience. This person opines it’s going to “overcome the concerns people are having about it in the emerging markets and open bigger than anticipated internationally.” The range we’ve been hearing is from $90M-$120M; this will evolve and sharpen as the weekend nears.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This is a sketchy territory. TLJ's world-wide numbers are still huge but I personally thought it was going to do better and end up at a higher final total. It has all to do with expectations tho. TLJ is a sequel to a movie that made 2B WW and it also happens to be the biggest movie ever in the domestic market. So expectations for TLJ was already very high to begin with and the OW was gigantic enough to indicate a bigger final haul. So TLJ did well but it could very well have done more so in that sense, I would call it a disappointment.

Yeah but Star Wars sequels always drop around 35%.

TLJ wasn't far off from the norm.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Yeah but Star Wars sequels always drop around 35%.

TLJ wasn't far off from the norm.

That's not really true. AOTC dropped 29.9% from TPM and ESB dropped 18.03% from ANH. These drops are based on their first runs only. I'm not considering re-expansions, re-releases (ANH had f**k tons of 'em) etc. The middle chapter of a SW trilogy decreases from the first one but there is no set/fixed projected range for a drop. TLJ is one of the worst performing sequels of all time. Batman Returns and The Lost World are the only two blockbuster sequels (that I know of) that fared worse from their respective previous movies in terms of retention.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

That's not really true. AOTC dropped 29.9% from TPM and ESB dropped 18.03% from ANH. These drops are based on their first runs only. I'm not considering re-expansions, re-releases (ANH had f**k tons of 'em) etc. The middle chapter of a SW trilogy decreases from the first one but there is no set/fixed projected range for a drop. TLJ is one of the worst performing sequels of all time. Batman Returns and The Lost World are the only two blockbuster sequels (that I know of) that fared worse from their respective previous movies in terms of retention.

How much did ANH and ESB make during their original run and what's your source?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

How much did ANH and ESB make during their original run and what's your source?

ANH did 221.3 million and ESB did 181.4 million. I read it somewhere but I'm sure it's true. I gotta eat dinner so I'll check back with you with sources later.

 

[Iceman]

oh and i also see a lot of disagreement over how well the last jedi did so it feels like it's a very subjective topic which is odd because you'd think numbers could speak for themselves

It's a debate between absolute and relative. TLJ was always going to make a lot of money whether it was a turd or the best ever SW film. So if you need X amount to make a profit and you make a lot more than that, that is obviously a success in absolute terms but then if you've got a franchise like Star Wars where a standard Episode film could be expected to make more, then there is room to judge a profitable film somewhat negatively. If you take on the world boxing heavyweight champion and he beats you but you manage to knock him down 3 times before he does, he has still won so you can call it a success but that doesn't mean it is a success worth boasting about. t:

 

[coreymb16]

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/black-panther-box-office-1202700353/

“Black Panther” is already ruling over the international box office.

The Marvel movie blasted off to a lordly $23.2 million overseas after opening in 17 locations, including the United Kingdom, South Korea, and France. Domestically, “Black Panther” will launch in previews on Thursday night before debuting across 4,020 locations. The film is expected to open to as much as $170 million — enthusiasm is rising on the strength of glowing reviews and the historic nature of the production. It is the first Marvel Cinematic Universe movie with a black protagonist.

“Black Panther,” which carries a $200 million budget, opened to $7.2 million in the U.K., $4.7 million in South Korea, $2 million in Taiwan, $1.6 million in France, and $1.1 million in Hong Kong. In many key markets, “Black Panther” is outpacing previous comic-book movie hits such as “Doctor Strange,” “Wonder Woman,” and “Guardians of the Galaxy,” all of which augurs for a healthy opening weekend and much to celebrate in the halls of Marvel.

“Black Panther” is directed by Ryan Coogler (“Creed”) and stars Chadwick Boseman as T’Challa, the king of the African nation of Wakanda. His peaceful kingdom becomes threatened by outside forces, including the arms dealer Ulysses Klaue (Andy Serkis) and Erik Killmonger (Michael B. Jordan), a former Wakandan out for revenge. T’Challa’s masked alter-ego is Black Panther, a hand-to-hand combat expert with a killer suit..

“Black Panther” continues rolling out around the world this weekend and will be in close to 70% of the international marketplace by Sunday. In addition to North America, the film will open Thursday in Germany, Australia, Brazil, Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Israel, and several other territories.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...-results-international-box-office-1202289446/

Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued to show its power at the international box office on Wednesday, lifting its running came to $23.2M in 17 markets. The Wakanda phenomenon is currently pacing ahead of deeper Marvel Cinematic Universe brethren Doctor Strange, Ant-Man and Guardians Of The Galaxy in most of those. This is a very encouraging start.

After a record-setting debut in the UK on Tuesday where the Ryan Coogler-helmed superhero pic scored the best single day of 2018 so far, it has now amassed $7.2M there to run ahead of Strange, Ant-Man, Wonder Woman and Deadpool.

Even more impressively, the Wednesday Korea start of $4.7M is the 2nd biggest MCU/Marvel opening day ever — behind only Avengers: Age Of Ultron. It is also the 7th industry launch day of all time and the best ever for February. That translates to 422% ahead of Guardians Of The Galaxy, 251% bigger than Ant-Man and 77% ahead of Doctor Strange.

Here’s what’s particularly notable in those Korea numbers: this is not a big Guardians hub, but it was a massive play for Doctor Strange. Disney smartly kicked off the global press junket in Korea last week — and the movie was partly shot in Busan. The market was clearly energized on Wednesday.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

How much did ANH and ESB make during their original run and what's your source?

Regarding ANH, from Wiki:

It replaced Jaws as the highest-earning film in North America just six months into release,[144] eventually earning over $220 million during its initial theatrical run ($888 million in 2017 dollars).

Read the last paragraph

Regarding ESB, from Wiki:

It earned $209,398,025 during its first 1980 run in the United States and about $450 million worldwide.

That 209.4 million includes the 1981 re-release which accounted for 28 million. The original BO run ended at 181.4 million.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Regarding ANH, from Wiki:



Read the last paragraph

Regarding ESB, from Wiki:



That 209.4 million includes the 1981 re-release which accounted for 28 million. The original BO run ended at 181.4 million.

Oh okay, so you were correct.

Thank you.

 

[Iceman]

Good start overseas. Not long at all till we start getting U.S. numbers.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Oh okay, so you were correct.

I don't have the re-release figure for ESB but I'm pretty sure it's 28m.

Thank you.

 

[Romannen]

Good start overseas.

I'll be seeing it tomorrow in Sweden. Don't know if it will be reflected in the worldwide box office, but I'll make my contribution anyway.

 

[KevTravels]

I'll be seeing it tomorrow in Sweden. Don't know if it will be reflected in the worldwide box office, but I'll make my contribution anyway.

How's the excitement for it in Sverige?

I imagine loads of comic book fans and the Social Democrats using it to boost their "popularity" with the young folks.

 

[Dboi]

I might need to stop thinking about the box office result for this movie.

As a fan who has been longing for a BP movie since 2010 (Yes 8 years), I have lost my appetite, can't really concentrate well enough to do my assignment as BP fans will be the laughing stock of the internet if the film fails and people will further perpetuate the fact that films with black leads don't do well overseas and may not see a sequel in the future.

Am I overreacting?

I just want the best for BP as the character means a lot to me.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Am I overreacting?

Yes, LOL

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I might need to stop thinking about the box office result for this movie.

You shouldn't stop thinking about it. Just soak it all in. I mean you'e only going to see and hear great things so you might as well enjoy it.

 

[Dboi]

You shouldn't stop thinking about it. Just soak it all in. I mean you'e only going to see and hear great things so you might as well enjoy it.

Oh I have already seen it lol.

Just worried about the general audience around the world.

 

[Dboi]

Yes, LOL

Lol, guess I will tone it down then.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Oh I have already seen it lol.

Just worried about the general audience around the world.

I wasn't talking about the movie itself but it's BO prospects. Don't worry, BP's gonna do extremely well. The WW numbers will be insane.

 

[Dboi]

I wasn't talking about the movie itself but it's BO prospects. Don't worry, BP's gonna do extremely well. The WW numbers will be insane.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Iceman]

I'll be seeing it tomorrow in Sweden. Don't know if it will be reflected in the worldwide box office, but I'll make my contribution anyway.

Excellent! Every penny counts!!