Homecoming The Box Office Thread

[iEquinox]

Not quite sure what that means but looking at amazing Spider-Man 2 its second Monday the movie made around 2.25 and its 3erd weekend the movie made around 16.8m. As long has the movie dosnt drop by like 64% or worse then the movie will make more on its 3erd weekend then amazing Spider-Man 2 did. I know its early being that it is only Monday but have there been any guess for its 3erd weekend?

WoW drop or week on week drop is the drop from the same day last week. 55.5% WoW drop from last Sunday means it made 55.5% less this Sunday than last Sunday. Just like a 62% weekend drop means it made 62% less this weekend than it did last weekend.

Usually this would get smaller over the next few days, so it can drop less than 55.5% next weekend if it gets the same increases on Friday/Saturday and the same drop on Sunday. Last Monday it made $12.2M, and if it drops 55.5% from that, it would give us $5.43M this Monday. Or explained in another way, if it has the same drop from Sunday as it did last week(58.2%), that would give the same result ($5.43M Monday). It needs to drop less from Sunday than it did last week to make the WoW drop from last Monday less than 55.5%.

TASM2 was released in May, so weekdays can't be compared, schools are still in session in May making weekdays much smaller. It has also already made more than TASM2 did in total.

Next weekend I think it'll drop about 50%. It'll lose IMAX screens to Dunkirk next weekend so that will make it drop again. After that I'm expecting it to start recovering more. I think weekends 4 and 5 will be the most interesting ones to decide where it will eventually end up. That's where it gets a chance to show some legs. If it keeps dropping 50%+ in weekend 4 and 5 then that would be bad.

 

[Tony Stark]

Again, there is just too much competition now. Valerian seems like it's going to be a flop, and Dunkirk is only tracking at 40M. However this is the 3rd week in a row we'll have a movie that's in the 90% rating on RT which we haven't had this summer. Guardians and WW were both very fortunate to get placed where they did. Outside those two films I can't remember a more abysmal two month span for summer new releases in quite some time.

 

[metaphysician]

Dude all Sony cares about is $$$

Indeed, which is my fear. I hope they are smart enough to realize "The key to more money *tomorrow*, is strong ratings *today*", but. . . well, its Sony. This can't be assumed.

 

[TheVileOne]

Competition isn't anything new. But there's definitely a fatigue on franchises from audiences after a parade of subpar sequels and reboots that were complete and utter letdowns.

Look at how poorly Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers both performed this summer. These were franchises you could almost used to guarantee making $300 million or more.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think the OS actuals also came in about a million lower than the early estimates.

Edit: Early estimates were 208.2 million (DOM) + 261 million (OS) = 469.2 million.

World-Wide number is at 467.3 million. The domestic weekend was exactly a million lower than early numbers. So [(469.2-1)-467.3]=0.9 million was lost in the OS numbers.

 

[Tony Stark]

Competition isn't anything new. But there's definitely a fatigue on franchises from audiences after a parade of subpar sequels and reboots that were complete and utter letdowns.

Look at how poorly Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers both performed this summer. These were franchises you could almost used to guarantee making $300 million or more.

Not saying that competition is new, but 1) putting a tentpole franchise film a week after another tentpole franchise film is not something that is typically done, and both films clearly suffered and 2) there has not been much competition if any this summer, and your point clearly reflects that. Look at the RT ratings for all the May and June releases not named Guardians of the Galaxy or Wonder Woman.

SMH had an A Cinemascore and Apes had an A-, which is higher than Kong Island's B+, yet Apes performed worse.

Marvel had the July 7th date when it was going to be Thor Ragnarok's release, but pushed it back when the got the rights to co-produce SMH, so it was really Fox that decided to take the Jul 14th date, which they kind of screwed themselves.

Remember when WB picked the same release date for BvS after Marvel already had Cap 3 scheduled? That's why you move your film, so you can get the max effort from it. If I'm a shareholder in Fox right now I'm furious, and this probably only further strained Fox and Marvel's already rocky relations.

 

[TheVileOne]

Not saying that competition is new, but 1) putting a tentpole franchise film a week after another tentpole franchise film is not something that is typically done, and both films clearly suffered and 2) there has not been much competition if any this summer, and your point clearly reflects that. Look at the RT ratings for all the May and June releases not named Guardians of the Galaxy or Wonder Woman.

SMH had an A Cinemascore and Apes had an A-, which is higher than Kong Island's B+, yet Apes performed worse.

It's really a common practice though that's been happening for the last 10 years. There's a big movie coming out every weekend, and it's been fairly common for a while. In 2007, Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, and Pirates 3 all came out in the same month.

It's been a typical practice for a while. Speed Racer came out a week after Iron Man, and that was back in 2008. Keep in mind Speed Racer was a huge release from the directors of the Matrix at the time.

Marvel had the July 7th date when it was going to be Thor Ragnarok's release, but pushed it back when the got the rights to co-produce SMH, so it was really Fox that decided to take the Jul 14th date, which they kind of screwed themselves.

Remember when WB picked the same release date for BvS after Marvel already had Cap 3 scheduled? That's why you move your film, so you can get the max effort from it. If I'm a shareholder in Fox right now I'm furious, and this probably only further strained Fox and Marvel's already rocky relations.

No matter how much you move a film, there's always going to be a big movie coming out that weekend or the following weekend almost assuredly. Just look at the release dates going back especially over the summer. You can find major tentpole releases with major budgets almost virtually every weekend.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

It definitely took a hit but remember it's been out a week haha. Also, it will most definitely hit $250M by the end of this weekend and surpass both ASM films by the end of the month. Will it hit $300M though, is the question.

 

[Iceman]

Again, there is just too much competition now. Valerian seems like it's going to be a flop, and Dunkirk is only tracking at 40M. However this is the 3rd week in a row we'll have a movie that's in the 90% rating on RT which we haven't had this summer. Guardians and WW were both very fortunate to get placed where they did. Outside those two films I can't remember a more abysmal two month span for summer new releases in quite some time.

Apes and Dunkirk don't even feel like summer films to me. They would do better released at a different time of year (which would contribute to the mood of the film for me). It's a shame that we get potentially 3 really well received films all get slightly disappointing final figures.

 

[spiderman2]

WoW drop or week on week drop is the drop from the same day last week. 55.5% WoW drop from last Sunday means it made 55.5% less this Sunday than last Sunday. Just like a 62% weekend drop means it made 62% less this weekend than it did last weekend.

Usually this would get smaller over the next few days, so it can drop less than 55.5% next weekend if it gets the same increases on Friday/Saturday and the same drop on Sunday. Last Monday it made $12.2M, and if it drops 55.5% from that, it would give us $5.43M this Monday. Or explained in another way, if it has the same drop from Sunday as it did last week(58.2%), that would give the same result ($5.43M Monday). It needs to drop less from Sunday than it did last week to make the WoW drop from last Monday less than 55.5%.

TASM2 was released in May, so weekdays can't be compared, schools are still in session in May making weekdays much smaller. It has also already made more than TASM2 did in total.

Next weekend I think it'll drop about 50%. It'll lose IMAX screens to Dunkirk next weekend so that will make it drop again. After that I'm expecting it to start recovering more. I think weekends 4 and 5 will be the most interesting ones to decide where it will eventually end up. That's where it gets a chance to show some legs. If it keeps dropping 50%+ in weekend 4 and 5 then that would be bad.

Oh ok didn't realize what you meant by WOW. I get it now and now I know it is already passed amazing Spider-Man 2. Yeah I get different day for amazing Spider-Man and for amazing Spider-Man 2 but I was just saying that HC is cleary doing better.

It definitely took a hit but remember it's been out a week haha. Also, it will most definitely hit $250M by the end of this weekend and surpass both ASM films by the end of the month. Will it hit $300M though, is the question.

I think 300 is in the bag. It is around 29 million ahead of were amazing Spider-Man was after 2 weekends and on top of that amazing Spider-Man came out on a wed instead of a Frida so like 2 days longer then HC after 2 weekends. Being that it is 29 million ahead even if it liked made the same amount has amazing Spider-Man did after its 2nd weekend it would end at 291 and being that after 2 weekends amazing Spider-Man had a 2 day advantage and being that also HC should drop off less fast then amazing Spider-Man I don't see how making only a extra 9 should be that much to ask for.

 

[TheVileOne]

The first Amazing Spider-Man made $262 million. Sony and Marvel obviously wanted way more, especially after Civil War.

$300 million might be tough after that huge second weekend drop. It's going to need some better holds in subsequent weekends.

 

[StormC]

The first Amazing Spider-Man made $262 million. Sony and Marvel obviously wanted way more, especially after Civil War.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I'm sure they wanted an uptick from ASM2, which was the real cause for concern at Sony.

But Sony is run by monkeys so maybe I'm wrong. Hopefully HC 2 is a smash hit either way and keeps Sony from pumping the breaks.

 

[Spiderine]

Regardless they got to be feeling good about the sequel right? Its coming fresh on the heels of IW2. Could get the IM3 bump. We know it will feature more MCU characters in the aftermath of IW.

 

[Faith_Cassidy]

The first Amazing Spider-Man made $262 million. Sony and Marvel obviously wanted way more, especially after Civil War.

$300 million might be tough after that huge second weekend drop. It's going to need some better holds in subsequent weekends.

Way more?? I don't think so. Certainly, if they were expecting anything over 350M domestic, their expectations were unrealistic.

But the fact that SMH is critically acclaimed and will almost certainly make more than the previous 2 spidey movies is a very good start. The odds of Sony accomplishing that on their own was slim...very slim.

 

[jmc]

Apes and Dunkirk don't even feel like summer films to me. They would do better released at a different time of year (which would contribute to the mood of the film for me). It's a shame that we get potentially 3 really well received films all get slightly disappointing final figures.

I think ultimately what needs to happen, and I think Wonder Woman is a prime example of this, is that studios have to start focusing on making movies that have staying power at the theatres as opposed to just having a big opening weekend, and the way you do that is getting audiences connected to what's happening. I'd argue most films just skim the surface in their potential these days, they may be movies that are enjoyable but they are also movies that you don't feel the need to watch again anytime soon.

 

[Darepool]

Wonder Women had the novelty factor in it's favor, this is the second reboot in 5 years and is 93% on RT. Really, WTF do people want, the moon everytime? Wait for the sequel.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

It's probably breaking BO records for the second reboot in a franchise

 

[Donald Thomas]

Aloha,
This is why fans have to start spreading out their viewing. You have people that have seen Homecoming 3-4 times already. What happens to week 2,3,4? Major drop. But, it will still beat most of the previous Spidey movie records.
Spidey rules

 

[hafizbat]

I think ultimately what needs to happen, and I think Wonder Woman is a prime example of this, is that studios have to start focusing on making movies that have staying power at the theatres as opposed to just having a big opening weekend, and the way you do that is getting audiences connected to what's happening. I'd argue most films just skim the surface in their potential these days, they may be movies that are enjoyable but they are also movies that you don't feel the need to watch again anytime soon.

I really don't think it's that sophisticated man. People like freshness and big spectacle. WW did so incredibly well because it went beyond a movie and became a symbol for female empowerment. It became an event. Things like F&F, Jurassic World, Pirates, etc etc etc are all big earners because they're big spectacle event films.

I think you give the general audience too much credit if you think BO depends on if a movie depends on emotion and not things like innovation and spectacle, done well of course.

Marvel films are frontloaded the same way Harry Potter films were because they already found their audience and most will go see it opening weekend. The total gross is what matters ultimately, and MCU movies always do very well.

Proposing that it's because Marvel movies don't have staying power because they don't connect with audiences feels a bit disingenuous.

 

[TheVileOne]

Once again, the Spider-Man brand was highly damaged by the Batman and Robin of the series, which was The Amazing Spider-Man.

Case in point, look at Batman Begins. It only made $200 million domestically. Generally very well reviewed by critics. 84 percent on Rotten tomatoes.

 

[TheVileOne]

Aloha,
This is why fans have to start spreading out their viewing. You have people that have seen Homecoming 3-4 times already. What happens to week 2,3,4? Major drop. But, it will still beat most of the previous Spidey movie records.
Spidey rules

No they don't, and that's not going to make a difference.

 

[StormC]

Box office-wise, ASM2's problem was moreso the ridiculous budget. It made a lot of money. Sony just couldn't keep costs down to save their life (or franchise). Homecoming will make more money on a smaller budget.

 

[TheVileOne]

Box office-wise, ASM2's problem was moreso the ridiculous budget. It made a lot of money. Sony just couldn't keep costs down to save their life (or franchise). Homecoming will make more money on a smaller budget.

It only made $202 million domestically.

 

[StormC]

It only made $202 million domestically.

Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes had basically the exact same box office that year (208M DOM/710M WW). It had a budget of 170 million. One of these two movies got a sequel.

 

[jmc]

I really don't think it's that sophisticated man. People like freshness and big spectacle. WW did so incredibly well because it went beyond a movie and became a symbol for female empowerment. It became an event. Things like F&F, Jurassic World, Pirates, etc etc etc are all big earners because they're big spectacle event films.

I think you give the general audience too much credit if you think BO depends on if a movie depends on emotion and not things like innovation and spectacle, done well of course.

Marvel films are frontloaded the same way Harry Potter films were because they already found their audience and most will go see it opening weekend. The total gross is what matters ultimately, and MCU movies always do very well.

Proposing that it's because Marvel movies don't have staying power because they don't connect with audiences feels a bit disingenuous.

Wonder Woman wasn't just some sort of symbol, in fact it's disrespectful to the film and the creative team to suggest as such. The difference between WW and those others films is its staying power, which the facts speak for themselves, it's had the best word of mouth from any superhero film for 15 years.

What I'm suggesting is that longevity in the theatres may actually produce better returns for a film overall than just a big opening weekend, and the best way to do that is if you produce something that people get emotionally attached to that makes them want to see it again and again. WW has just slowly chugged along and is going to end the year as one of the biggest movies. So there's a lesson to be learned here.