Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[mclay18]

They started it since Friday

Yeah, they’re definitely making it up. Even the theater I work at, we had 24 showings a day and each one had tickets sold during the weekend.

 

[Naglfar]

I heard that Alita Battle Angel had a pretty huge drop this weekend.
Which is ironic, since the haters wanted people to see Alita instead of CM.
Anybody have any actual numbers on how Alita did this weekend?

 

[Mysteryman]

Thanks!

 

[Holy Slapper]

I heard that Alita Battle Angel had a pretty huge drop this weekend.
Which is ironic, since the haters wanted people to see Alita instead of CM.
Anybody have any actual numbers on how Alita did this weekend?

Weekend Box Office Results for March 8-10, 2019 - Box Office Mojo

$3,215,344 -55.5%

 

[Mysteryman]

Ah . thank you for that.

 

[Silver Surfer]

BOT Monday Numbers from Rth:

11m

 

[Mysteryman]

BOT Monday Numbers from Rth:

11m

Is that good?

 

[Naglfar]

Is that good?

71.6% drop. It's average to good, for the MCU

 

[Hammer!]

Beauty and the Beast made 13.5 million first Monday on a 72% drop. So seems pretty par for the course.

 

[Mysteryman]

In that case, I will take it!

 

[ADollarADay]

That's a big drop. Not the best, but the not the worst. Let's compare it to other MCU films first Monday drop:

Ironman - 73.4
TIH - 61.4
Ironman 2 - 69.9
Thor - 68
Cap 1 - 55.5
Avengers - 66.9
Ironman 3 - 73.8
Thor 2 - 52.1
Cap 2 - 73.5
GoTG - 54
Avengers AoU - 73.7
Ant Man - 57.6
Civil War - 68.7
Dr. Strange - 70.6
GoTG 2 - 74.8
SM: H - 58.2
Thor 3 - 74.3
BP - 33.2
IW - 64.3
Ant Man 2 - 62.3
Captain Marvel ~71.6

And apparently it had a record Monday drop in China as well. China LTD is looking more like 150MM as opposed to the 200MM we all thought last week. We'll have to see how it does next weekend for that chance at a billion.

 

[Mysteryman]

That whole chance at a billion stuff is something fans have been talking about today.
Marvel never predicted or estimated it.

 

[LongshotRules]

That's a big drop. Not the best, but the not the worst. Let's compare it to other MCU films first Monday drop:

Ironman - 73.4
TIH - 61.4
Ironman 2 - 69.9
Thor - 68
Cap 1 - 55.5
Avengers - 66.9
Ironman 3 - 73.8
Thor 2 - 52.1
Cap 2 - 73.5
GoTG - 54
Avengers AoU - 73.7
Ant Man - 57.6
Civil War - 68.7
Dr. Strange - 70.6
GoTG 2 - 74.8
SM: H - 58.2
Thor 3 - 74.3
BP - 33.2
IW - 64.3
Ant Man 2 - 62.3
Captain Marvel ~71.6

And apparently it had a record Monday drop in China as well. China LTD is looking more like 150MM as opposed to the 200MM we all thought last week. We'll have to see how it does next weekend for that chance at a billion.

Perhaps Marvel can convince China to give the movie an extended run so 200MM can be within reach. I believe China did it for Infinity War so another exception can be made.

 

[Patrick77]

My recollection is that those extended runs don't necessarily make a huge difference in terms of the overall number in China, as the box office tends to be fairly front-loaded anyway.

As it stands, Captain Marvel is going to do a very good number there for an MCU solo film, but it's doesn't sound like it going break out like Venom and Aquaman did.

That will certainly put a little damper on things, simply because China is potentially such a huge market, but the first weekend was really strong all over the world, so that may balance out any steep drop in China over the long haul.

 

[Zyraquis]

The longer run in China won’t really matter that much since the local theaters won’t be keen to run it if the butts aren’t there.

Part of the reasons for a short screening period for foreign imports in China is that the theaters earn more by screening locally made films, a larger revenue cut or kick backs or whatever they call it in China and is still legal. So theater operators will evaluate how many butts are there for a foreign film vs local films even there are more expected viewers for a Hollywood import they may choose to screen a local film if they think the number makes more sense when the kickbacks kick in.

As for CM the prediction after the initial big one was somewhere in the 150m in China due to an okay audience score short of 9. To have good legs you need 9+ like Aquaman and Venom. 150m is a really good one given almost all MCU solo were in the 100m-120m range and this is a character that had no previous outing nor was it well known outside of Marvel comic fans

 

[Iceman]

That's a big drop. Not the best, but the not the worst. Let's compare it to other MCU films first Monday drop:

Ironman - 73.4
TIH - 61.4
Ironman 2 - 69.9
Thor - 68
Cap 1 - 55.5
Avengers - 66.9
Ironman 3 - 73.8
Thor 2 - 52.1
Cap 2 - 73.5
GoTG - 54
Avengers AoU - 73.7
Ant Man - 57.6
Civil War - 68.7
Dr. Strange - 70.6
GoTG 2 - 74.8
SM: H - 58.2
Thor 3 - 74.3
BP - 33.2
IW - 64.3
Ant Man 2 - 62.3
Captain Marvel ~71.6

And apparently it had a record Monday drop in China as well. China LTD is looking more like 150MM as opposed to the 200MM we all thought last week. We'll have to see how it does next weekend for that chance at a billion.

Thanks for the comparables. So the China collapse is on. Makes sense after the weekend developments and splits but still disappointing. That’s $50m or so gone. That will make the race to a billion tighter than it would have been. IM3 will be a good one to watch as it needs to have better drops than that or it might struggle to get to $400m dom with IM3 finishing at $409m with a bigger opening. The overseas markets outside of China will have an important role to play.

 

[Naglfar]

That's a big drop. Not the best, but the not the worst. Let's compare it to other MCU films first Monday drop:

Ironman - 73.4
TIH - 61.4
Ironman 2 - 69.9
Thor - 68
Cap 1 - 55.5
Avengers - 66.9
Ironman 3 - 73.8
Thor 2 - 52.1
Cap 2 - 73.5
GoTG - 54
Avengers AoU - 73.7
Ant Man - 57.6
Civil War - 68.7
Dr. Strange - 70.6
GoTG 2 - 74.8
SM: H - 58.2
Thor 3 - 74.3
BP - 33.2
IW - 64.3
Ant Man 2 - 62.3
Captain Marvel ~71.6

And apparently it had a record Monday drop in China as well. China LTD is looking more like 150MM as opposed to the 200MM we all thought last week. We'll have to see how it does next weekend for that chance at a billion.

You have to take some things into consideration for some of those drops though. TIH, CA:TFA, GotG, AM, SM:H, AatW were released during the summer break so they were always expected to have lesser drops from Sunday. Also, Thor 2 first Monday was on Veterans Day and BP's was on Presidents Day (both holidays) so they were again expected to have a lower drop. If you take all the rest, you have an average of 70,99% so CM's is on par with that.

But i agree, the 2nd weekend will give us a better picture of how leggy CM will be.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Even with the 'collapse' in China, it's gonna end up making more than all but 3 MCU movies. IM3 made 121m there and still ended up making 1.2 billion.

IM3 is the trajectory it needs to follow, and that had a worse drop on Monday. A billion is and has been a lock.

 

[Vic Ryan]

Has anyone seen this ****?
Disney Lying About Captain Marvel Box Office Numbers?

 

[Silver Surfer]

^ Please don't click that, don't give them clicks for fake news click bait BS.

 

[Adder]

Yeah, they’re definitely making it up. Even the theater I work at, we had 24 showings a day and each one had tickets sold during the weekend.

Posting images of empty theaters is an old troll tactic. I think the first time I ran into it was for bvs. What's funny is that some people buy into it then it becomes part of the conspiracy theory that Disney faked the BO numbers. Lol.

 

[seridrl]

I don't understand why people get so caught up in something they claim not to like or be interested in. Literally spending hours writing articles and making videos for clicks seems to paint a picture of quite significant interest in something.

 

[Ozbridge]

30-50M less in China isn’t much though, when with normal leg CM will get to 1.1-1.15B, so that’s plenty of wiggle room if 1B is the goal.

That's a big drop. Not the best, but the not the worst. Let's compare it to other MCU films first Monday drop:

Ironman - 73.4
TIH - 61.4
Ironman 2 - 69.9
Thor - 68
Cap 1 - 55.5
Avengers - 66.9
Ironman 3 - 73.8
Thor 2 - 52.1
Cap 2 - 73.5
GoTG - 54
Avengers AoU - 73.7
Ant Man - 57.6
Civil War - 68.7
Dr. Strange - 70.6
GoTG 2 - 74.8
SM: H - 58.2
Thor 3 - 74.3
BP - 33.2
IW - 64.3
Ant Man 2 - 62.3
Captain Marvel ~71.6

Can you remove the summer movies (both Ant-Man, SMH, etc) and movies with holiday Monday (e.g. BP). For people who aren’t well-versed with box office those numbers can be misleading.

BTW does anyone know how to block a certain website from your Google search results? Yesterday I searched “captain marvel” on Google news and all top 6 results were from that trash site cosmicbook.com (Avengers cast unhappy with CM, MCU in doubt, Brie Larson against white men, etc) and I stg I have never visited that site before so it isn’t because of cookies (and their content is trash so I don’t know why they got to top results). Or are those sites (and those kinds of “articles”) that popular that Google put them on top?

Has anyone seen this ****?
Disney Lying About Captain Marvel Box Office Numbers?

I don’t know where that cosmicbook site came from but Google algorithms spread it everywhere and apparently it’s Brie Larson’s no 1 hater.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not clicking on it. Disney doesn't crap gold all the time. I think they want ALL their movies to do well not just Marvel, Live Remake, Animated, Star Wars and Pixar.

A Wrinkle in Time, Nutcracker, etc. would be inflated too if that was the case.

 

[Iceman]

Empty seats means nothing unless you know the time, day and location of showing. IW made $257m on opening weekend vs CM's $153m. That means there is over $100m worth of empty seats around the country during this opening weekend (Cap has a few less screens sure, but not enough for a difference of over $100m). So what? It's the same for every other film that opened with numbers like this or less (nearly all films in other words). When I go to opening morning showings there are often empty seats because hardly anyone else can make it at that time in the location that my cinema is (I start work later).