Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[Silver Surfer]

So we could be on $580m+ ahead of what is likely to be another big global weekend.

Yup, It's gonna breeze its way to 1B.

 

[Iceman]

Yup, It's gonna breeze its way to 1B.

A $200m global weekend (or thereabouts) would be very nice. That would take it within a couple of days or so of $800m.

 

[Iceman]

You've got to give kudos to Disney/Marvel for getting industry analysts, trade publications, theater owners, and rival studios to all buy into the "Captain Marvel is a BO success!!" conspiracy.

The rival studios in particular we know are desperate to give Disney as much of a leg up as possible.

 

[Smurphftw]

I guess the um ... "logic" ... behind the conspiracy theory is that Captain Marvel was too big to fail? That would explain why Disney allowed John Carter, Tomorrowland, A Wrinkle In Time, and Solo to fail. The failure of those movies just wasn't as important. *rolls eyes*

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Yeah. Who doesn't love seeing mediocrity succeed? Marvel is going to look at all the money this movie is making and conclude that people want more of this. Can't wait for Captain Marvel 2: The Dark World.

Carol Danvers deserved better.

deserved...lol bro these are movies based on comic book characters...it's not that serious this is just a piece of entertainment. You didn't like it? ok...it's just a movie.

 

[jolldan]

So what do people reckon it will do?

This is one side of the business I know literally nothing about

 

[MahvelBaby!]

So what do people reckon it will do?

This is one side of the business I know literally nothing about

all signs point towards 1 billion +

 

[Abudefduf]

deserved...lol bro these are movies based on comic book characters...it's not that serious this is just a piece of entertainment. You didn't like it? ok...it's just a movie.

Tell that to the people in the "Keep Hope Alive" thread - Part 1547.

I kept hope alive for 5 years that I would end up liking this goddamn movie. The last thing I expected was that Marvel would drop the ball on it so hard.

Like, my worst case scenario was that the movie would be an interesting "failure" like Iron Man 3. I sure as heck wasn't expecting "Thor, sort of, but with a woman".

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Tell that to the people in the "Keep Hope Alive" thread - Part 1547.

I kept hope alive for 5 years that I would end up liking this goddamn movie. The last thing I expected was that Marvel would drop the ball on it so hard.

Like, my worst case scenario was that the movie would be an interesting "failure" like Iron Man 3. I sure as heck wasn't expecting "Thor, sort of, but with a woman".

LOL! Your "outrage" is so fake, I'm starting to see through your facade.

 

[Erzengel]

Think of it this way. Even if Captain Marvel's first movie/performance was lackluster, which character's first movie is usually considered the best?

Iron Man as stellar as that is, a lot of people would consider Avengers or Civil War or even Infinity War as the better movie.
Captain America in TWS or CW
Batman in TDK.
Spider-Man in Spider-Man 2.
Doctor Strange in Infinity War
Thor in Ragnarok or Infinity War

 

[Smurphftw]

Tell that to the people in the "Keep Hope Alive" thread - Part 1547.

I kept hope alive for 5 years that I would end up liking this goddamn movie. The last thing I expected was that Marvel would drop the ball on it so hard.

Like, my worst case scenario was that the movie would be an interesting "failure" like Iron Man 3. I sure as heck wasn't expecting "Thor, sort of, but with a woman".

"Thor sort of, but with a.woman" is still significantly better than any of the 3 attempts Fox did with FF, so I don't think that's a particularly good comparison.

If the first FF had been on par with Thor/Captain Marvel, then improved from there with the sequels, I think FF fans wouldn't be nearly as upset with Fox, even though most of us would still want all of Marvel's characters under one roof just out of principle.

 

[Themanofbat]

I thought the movie was good, not great, but good.
Certainly ranks in the middle of the pack of MCU movies.

My only legitimate gripe is that I found it lacked the humour that most of the other movies contain>
There was some, but the scenes were few and far between.

But that is a minor gripe at best.

 

[Jh7058622]

I guess the um ... "logic" ... behind the conspiracy theory is that Captain Marvel was too big to fail? That would explain why Disney allowed John Carter, Tomorrowland, A Wrinkle In Time, and Solo to fail. The failure of those movies just wasn't as important. *rolls eyes*

To be fair none of those films are apart of a film conveyor belt that are interconnected to lead to a finale of an era of the biggest grossing movies in Hollywood history.

And before you say it no Solo does not meet those requirements.

 

[ludovica]

LOL! Your "outrage" is so fake, I'm starting to see through your facade.

Abudefduf does not need anyone speaking for him, but for what is worth I will vouch for his good faith, more than one time on this forum he has been "accused" of being a "SWJ" or "virtue signaling" by that (trolling/reactionary) type of posters, he is absolutely not one of them.
He just truly didn't like the movie and even if I really disagree with him here, I have no doubt about his sincerity.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

 

[Abudefduf]

Ok I confess, I'm a troll. My countdown thread was just a ruse, my plan was always to hate the movie.

Seriously though, enough talking about my opinions, this is the box office thread. I'm not the one who started this discussion, just leave me alone with my disappointment.

 

[divan]

I respect Abudefduf's opinion and I think in general we have similar tastes but I have to disgree with him. I'd actually put this in the upper half of the MCU, on the level of Black Panther, GOTG/GOTG2 and Ragnarok. I thought the way they presented the origin story, as a mystery to hook the audience with was great, Carol was a great character that was allowed to develop more and more interestigly than most MCU protagonists in their first outtings (I have a better idea of this woman's life struggle than I did, say, Ant-Man, Thor and Dr. Strange) and Brie Larson was fantastic juggling the different characterizations she had to show (pre-amnesia, starforce Carol and full CM) the twist with the Skrulls was great and the Kree were a good collective enemy - with the Supreme Inteligence for trash talk and creep factor, the brute force of an Accurser attack as a threat the character has to prove herself against (but with an actual, if small, personality unlike what happened with half of the Black Order and a little well-placed humour) and Yong-Roh and the Starforce for the personal stake against the heroine and creative characterization (come on, that final scene were Jude Law tries to play a final mindgame and have her fight him without powers is more interesting and better acted than 90% of most MCU final villain confrontations, at least on his part).

It's certainly high above the likes of Ant-Man and the Wasp (which was, in my humble opinion, the actual disappoinment of Phase 3 for me), Dr. Strange, Ant-Man, Age of Ultron, Thor: The Dark World, Iron Man 3, The First Avenger, Iron Man 2 and Thor. Seriously, those movies wish they could be as well balanced as this one (and I say this as an MCU fan).

The only I agree with is the VFX problems in the third act (man, it's Black Panther all over again)

 

[Smurphftw]

To be fair none of those films are apart of a film conveyor belt that are interconnected to lead to a finale of an era of the biggest grossing movies in Hollywood history.

And before you say it no Solo does not meet those requirements.

To me that just makes the conspiracy theories even sillier. What franchise is better equipped to roll through a one off failure than the MCU?

John Carter was supposed to kick start a franchise. Solo has at least temporarily put non-episodic Star Wars movies on hold. A Captain Marvel box office disappointment or failure would have been a tiny bump in the road that Endgame would have run right over.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Over 100 already in China.

 

[Iceman]

Glad to see the monster domestic Tuesday confirmed.

 

[Erzengel]

Pre 2012 or I should just say pre Avengers, the top 10 grossing movies in the genre (not taking into account inflation), had Spider-Man 3, Iron Man 2 and the Last Stand on the list.

If CM makes it to a $1B? I think I'd take it, Aquaman and Iron Man 3 over the previous 3.

 

[psylockolussus]

I never imagined that Captain Marvel would have already passed the $500 million mark in more or less than a week. And the 90s chick have yet to appear in Avengers movie.

Mar-Vellous.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Can't say I totally disagree with Abudefduf's feelings about the movie. I was expecting much more from it. In my honest opinion it falls behind Wonder Woman and Black Panther in quality. Something about those 2 films just clicked and made me want repeat viewings immediately where with this movie I'll go back and see it one day but I don't have the urge to see it more than once right now. I saw Black Panther in theaters 4 times and Wonder Woman 3 times. I still want to see it succeed at the box office though. I like tracking these movies.

 

[Patrick77]

14.6M would be around a 33% increase, compared to B&tB at 32.1%, so very close.

That movie ended up with a strong 2.9x domestic multiplier off of a somewhat larger opening (174M). This movie may not be able to maintain that, but, if it can stay relatively close, that will still be very good.

It only needs to do slightly better than 2.6x to get to 400M.

 

[Kuwolski]

I enjoyed the movie a lot (8) but it wasn't a top-tier MCU movie imo. This franchise will only get better though. If people think the studio will ignore critic reactions after having a streak of films the past few years being mostly in the 90's on RT (at worst mid-eighties around 7.5 avg), then they are in for a surprise. I guarantee the box office makes Feige & Co. extremely happy but they surely know a top-tier effort (consensus wise) would likely have beaten BP. They will do their best to make that happen for the sequel.