Captain Marvel The Captain Marvel box office prediction thread

[writer0327]

I really don't understand what drives the hate for this film.
I get the The anti- female stuff.
but, I think that there is more to it than that.
It seems like now people just want to be proven right about it being a bad film.

I think people just want to complain because of Brie's comments. I also hear from the hardcore comic community that this character isn't really beloved and that Marvel is trying too hard to put her over. I don't know, this all feels like TLJ all over again. Some love it, some hate it, and those folks are the most vocal battling each other online. But myself and the vast majority of people I speak to are right smack dab in the middle of the "It was okay" camp.

 

[Silver Surfer]

TLJ had a much more divisive split down right 50-50. This 90-10 in favor of CM, it's just that the 10% are a lot more invested in hating the movie.

 

[Kuwolski]

If Marvel was trying 'too hard' to put the character over they succeeded as it will very likely make more then the 'icon'. In fact many icons in comics the past few years.
.

 

[writer0327]

TLJ had a much more divisive split down right 50-50. This 90-10 in favor of CM, it's just that the 10% are a lot more invested in hating the movie.

I believe that most of the TLJ hate came about a month after the release, once the online pundits started writing article after article and making video after video spewing their hatred of the film. After week one of TLJ, most people (not all) had a similar reactions, positive but passive. Same with CM, you don't see a lot of folks "raving" about how great the film was. "I liked it", "It was cool" with a shrug and a nod is the typical response. Most people are neutral, they neither love or hate the movie, you hear responses like "typical MCU film" and stuff like that. However if the online pundits start piling up the hate videos in the same way, especially if CM plays this enormous role in defeating Thanos in Endgame, I anticipate the divide will only expand.

 

[Patrick77]

The Last Jedi is an odd case, but that's partially because it was the rare example of a movie that could make 1.4 billion, or thereabouts, and still be considered a little disappointing at the box office.

Internationally, Star Wars simply does not have the clout that Marvel has right now, I don't think that this has anything to do with the film itself being divisive in particular.

In the more established markets, including the US, I do think that there was genuinely a mixed reaction to the film, and probably fewer repeat viewings for a Star Wars film than is normally the case. Many of the reasons for this were perfectly understandable. Simply not liking the film all that much, or not liking certain choices.

But that's distinct from the extremely rabid online hatred for the film, which I don't think was all that different from the hatred being directed at this film. That part of it doesn't represent a lot of people in either case, really, from what I can see.

 

[Sithborg]

No, the reaction was almost immediate. Trust me, I remember the discussions.

 

[roxas99]

I think people just want to complain because of Brie's comments. I also hear from the hardcore comic community that this character isn't really beloved and that Marvel is trying too hard to put her over. I don't know, this all feels like TLJ all over again. Some love it, some hate it, and those folks are the most vocal battling each other online. But myself and the vast majority of people I speak to are right smack dab in the middle of the "It was okay" camp.

I don't get this comparison

The Last Jedi really was a divisive film that some people really did hate for the way it handled beloved characters like Luke Skywalker and Princess Leia

Captain Marvel at worse was an ok film that some on the internet are tying really hard to convince people that it is the worse thing in the world but in the real world I have not met anybody who has seen that film say that they hated it

Something about the outrage over captain marvel feel fake to me. Im convinced that many of the trolls are just using the movie to get more clicks on their youtube channel.

also all of the outrage over Captain Marvel seems to be all about things happening outside of the film. There are tons of youtube videos about the film but very few them are talking about the actual film itself. They seem more interested in fighting a culture war against SJW than they do talking about the film

This is the opposite of The last jedi.
All of the hate for the film started after the film had come out and all people could talk about is their dislike for the film and its director. sure you also had people using that film to fight a culture war but you also had many people who gave very good reasons for why disliked the movie

 

[Kuwolski]

I believe that most of the TLJ hate came about a month after the release, once the online pundits started writing article after article and making video after video spewing their hatred of the film. After week one of TLJ, most people (not all) had a similar reactions, positive but passive. Same with CM, you don't see a lot of folks "raving" about how great the film was. "I liked it", "It was cool" with a shrug and a nod is the typical response. Most people are neutral, they neither love or hate the movie, you hear responses like "typical MCU film" and stuff like that. However if the online pundits start piling up the hate videos in the same way, especially if CM plays this enormous role in defeating Thanos in Endgame, I anticipate the divide will only expand.

Then let the hate come I say, 'cause I'm sure she's going to play a significant role. Why wait until April? Let's get the word out and burn it all to the ground with divisiveness I hate pu$$yfooting around, let's get it!

 

[Patrick77]

No, the reaction was almost immediate. Trust me, I remember the discussions.

You mean around here? I had a different username then, but I was around for that.

Certain choices were controversial, and still are. Some of them for very obvious and understandable reasons. But I would have ranked that stuff more under genuinely disliking certain things, rather than trolling and actively campaigning against the film.

Maybe I'm forgetting or misremembering part of it. But there's room to really dislike something in a way that's not troll-ish.

 

[writer0327]

If Marvel was trying 'too hard' to put the character over they succeeded as it will very likely make more then the 'icon'. In fact many icons in comics the past few years.
.

True. My comment was more about how some feel the character Carol Danvers in comics is not that popular. Some in the Marvel fandom feels that there were many other far more worthy candidates for the "first female led Marvel film" than Carol Danvers and they feel that Marvel is force feeding us Carol. It is true that the Captain Marvel that defeated Thanos in the comics is Mar-Vell, not Danvers.

Now I'm a DC Comics guy more than Marvel Comics guy so I can't confirm or deny any of this....apparently Danvers has only became CM in the last 6-7 years or so and Marvel has rebooted her series a few times in this timespan because issues aren't selling. Any who, I'm just saying maybe that's where some of this hate is coming from.

 

[Kuwolski]

You mean around here? I had a different username then, but I was around for that

But I would have ranked that stuff more under genuinely disliking certain things, rather than trolling and actively campaigning against the film.

Maybe I'm forgetting or misremembering part of it. But there's room to really dislike something in a way that's not troll-ish.

Geeks & Gamers was having live streams where viewers/subscribers we're bragging about hitting RT and down voting the film to get it as low as possible. If that's not a campaign I don't know what is.

 

[Patrick77]

Geeks & Gamers was having live streams where viewers/subscribers we're bragging about hitting RT and down voting the film to get it as low as possible. If that's not a campaign I don't know what is.

There was a campaign, yes. But there's one for this movie, too.

Having thought about it, I guess that it's probably fair to say that The Last Jedi was more divisive among non-trolls than this movie by quite a bit, especially because of what happened with Luke.

But I do think that there was an element of more troll-ish and rabid hate directed at the film, which perhaps fed off of that more genuine reaction, but which was not really identical to it.

That aspect of these online campaigns shifts around, and can target a lot of different things.

 

[roxas99]

There was a campaign, yes. But there's one for this movie, too.

Having thought about it, I guess that it's probably fair to say that The Last Jedi was more divisive among non-trolls than this movie by quite a bit, especially because of what happened with Luke.

But I do think that there was an element of more troll-ish and rabid hate directed at the film, which perhaps fed off of that more genuine reaction, but which was not really identical to it.

That aspect of these online campaigns shifts around, and can target a lot of different things.

had last jedi been a less divisive film the campaign against it would have failed just as badly as the campaign against black panther did last year

but like you said the trolls took advantage of the fact the many people really did dislike the movie
and They used the hate for the film to push their own anti SJW agenda

 

[Kuwolski]

True. My comment was more about how some feel the character Carol Danvers in comics is not that popular. Some in the Marvel fandom feels that there were many other far more worthy candidates for the "first female led Marvel film" than Carol Danvers and they feel that Marvel is force feeding us Carol. It is true that the Captain Marvel that defeated Thanos in the comics is Mar-Vell, not Danvers.

Now I'm a DC Comics guy more than Marvel Comics guy so I can't confirm or deny any of this....apparently Danvers has only became CM in the last 6-7 years or so and Marvel has rebooted her series a few times in this timespan because issues aren't selling. Any who, I'm just saying maybe that's where some of this hate is coming from.

I do think Black Widow should have come first, but I doubt that happens with Ike in charge.

I don't like how some of the promotion for this went down, but everyone all around has to take everything to extremes nowadays and rail on a soapbox. It's become as much self-serving and fashionable as anything else. I saw this coming a year ago, especially after TLJ.

 

[writer0327]

I don't get this comparison

The Last Jedi really was a divisive film that some people really did hate for the way it handled beloved characters like Luke Skywalker and Princess Leia

Captain Marvel at worse was an ok film that some on the internet are tying really hard to convince people that it is the worse thing in the world but in the real world I have not met anybody who has seen that film say that they hated it

Something about the outrage over captain marvel feel fake to me. Im convinced that many of the trolls are just using the movie to get more clicks on their youtube channel.

also all of the outrage over Captain Marvel seems to be all about things happening outside of the film. There are tons of youtube videos about the film but very few them are talking about the actual film itself. They seem more interested in fighting a culture war against SJW than they do talking about the film

This is the opposite of The last jedi.
All of the hate for the film started after the film had come out and all people could talk about is their dislike for the film and its director. sure you also had people using that film to fight a culture war but you also had many people who gave very good reasons for why disliked the movie

Give it time. This is only week one and negative YouTube videos are populating like wet Mogwai, and this is only going to continue with Endgame around the corner. Yes TLJ was condemned by some for how Luke was handled, just as fans of the source material are condemning this version of Captain Marvel, saying Carol Danvers isn't that important or interesting of a character and Marvel is mishandling characters like Mar-Vell and Monica Rambeau while forcing Danvers on us or whatever... Even regular online reviewers who know nothing about the comics and seemed to like the film and gave it a passing grade said the worst thing about the film was the character of Carol Danvers.

However if you ask "Joe Average" general audience fan about either film, not a Marvel or Star Wars buff, and they will say "It was cool", "It was okay". That's what I mean. The split is not 50/50 its more like 10-80-10, the 80% being most of the people who watched TLJ once, said it was cool, and went back to their daily routine.

Look, don't get me wrong, I liked CM and I hope the noise dies down so it doesn't ruin my Endgame buzz, but I see the writing on the wall.

 

[writer0327]

You mean around here? I had a different username then, but I was around for that.

Certain choices were controversial, and still are. Some of them for very obvious and understandable reasons. But I would have ranked that stuff more under genuinely disliking certain things, rather than trolling and actively campaigning against the film.

Maybe I'm forgetting or misremembering part of it. But there's room to really dislike something in a way that's not troll-ish.

Yeah I am talking about the average movie-goer, not message board guys and YouTube watchers like us who subscribe to 25 different movie reviewers and watch them daily. We are a different breed.

Most of the folks who watched TLJ say it was fine. They neither hated or loved the movie.

 

[roxas99]

if CM plays this enormous role in defeating Thanos in Endgame, I anticipate the divide will only expand.

I firmly believe that a woman will have an enormous role in defeating Thanos

unfortunately some people seem to be focused on the wrong woman

Something tells me that Nebula is not going to be sitting around waiting for Iron Man man or Captain Marvel to take out the man who killed her sister......

 

[writer0327]

I firmly believe that a woman will have an enormous role in defeating Thanos

unfortunately some people seem to be focused on the wrong woman

Something tells me that Nebula is not going to be sitting around waiting for Iron Man man or Captain Marvel to take out the man who killed her sister......

I hear you and agree. Nebula undoes the snap in the comics and I think that's the play here. Honestly I don't care if CM beats him or not. I'm still gonna enjoy watching his downfall as I throw salty and heavily buttered popcorn and sour patch kids down my throat.

 

[Kuwolski]

I doubt CM is the one who beats him or finishes him, that's not poetic at all and Marvel is much smarter then that (well usually). I would bet Nebula or one/a combo of the OG Avengers.

 

[Naglfar]

From Charlie over at BOT (Thursday numbers) :

And $9-9.3mn Locked.

Very, very good number. Endgame trailer bumped it up nicely.


Update about the week totals:

]#CaptainMarvel ends it first week at worldwide box office with an estimated $578mn.



USA: $197mn
China: $108mn
Rest: $273mn

 

[AverageMan]

Excellent first week. After this weekend, where do you expect it to be? $700m - $800m?

 

[Naglfar]

Excellent first week. After this weekend, where do you expect it to be? $700m - $800m?

$750M+ seems reasonable with an outside chance at $800M (very difficult with China's performance so far)

 

[Adder]

TLJ was hated right away people who saw it like myself. CM is hated for Brie's comments unrelated to the movie. Mostly by people who didn't watch it.

 

[Iceman]

Excellent first week. After this weekend, where do you expect it to be? $700m - $800m?

I’m hoping for around $760m+. I would have said over $780m but it depends how much China collapses by.

 

[ludovica]

fans of the source material are condemning this version of Captain Marvel, saying Carol Danvers isn't that important or interesting of a character and Marvel is mishandling characters like Mar-Vell and Monica Rambeau while forcing Danvers on us or whatever...

I can assure you that the vast majority of people using that argument are not being honest, the incel white patriarchy fans (sad world we live in) are just trying to conjure up some sort of legitimate criticism, and they are failing at that.
Even by copies selled in the last years, it does not really hold up: do you really believe the people using that argument would have liked a black female superhero movie?