Dark Phoenix $ The DARK PHOENIX Box Office Speculation ThreaD $

[EnDz0n3]

My only point was the audience now wants more originality. But there is a certain fanbase that takes offense to a harmless opinion.

And the numbers from any of the movies, may they be sequels or reboots or adaptations of IPs that have come out in the past few years does not support that "opinion."

based off the usual huge Marvel comic fan base, it should be at least in the 70 million range over the weekend.

Huh? You assume Marvel fans are some monolithic group that all watch every Marvel movie.

i'm still stunned that as popular as Xmen are as a comic book, they have NEVER eclipsed and reached the 100 million opening weekend mark...

Not even the best of the Xmen or Xmen -related movies (X2, Xmen, 1st Class, Days of Future Past, Logan, Wolverine) have achieved that feat.

X-men making $54Mil in the year 2000 was a big deal. At the time it was the biggest non-sequel opening ever. The year it opened, X-men was the second biggest opening so far, following only Mi:2.

Spider-man 1 making $114 in 3 days two years later was unheard of.

X2 opening to $85Mil in 2003 was also a big deal. Matrix Reloaded, a bigger deal and a more pedigreed franchise back in the day, opened 2 weeks later to $90Mil. The two franchises were seen as rivals.

First Class came after the one-two punch of X3 and X-men Origins Wolverine. 'Nuff said.

Why is that ? (never maxing 100 million at box office on opening weekend) .....

You're right though, DOFP and Logan should have opened north of $100Mil.

 

[Fallen]

Chinese audience has rejected the movie.

7.5 on Maoyan: X战警：黑凤凰 - 猫眼电影 - 一网打尽好电影

 

[Iceman]

Damn, that’s not good either.

 

[Micromind]

I wonder how much will this movie make in China.

 

[Dumain]

I cannot wait to see the China numbers for Friday and Saturday. The drop will be rough.

 

[kevork89]

I don’t see this doing much in Aus either. My session was empty and it’s a Thursday night. Usually a new movie they sell out those sessions. Also I was like to people at work I’m going to see X-Men and the reaction was

Theres another X-Men movie out?

There’s been absolutely no promotion here in Aus.

 

[samsnee]

This movie deserves every dollar it won't get.

 

[Iceman]

I don’t see this doing much in Aus either. My session was empty and it’s a Thursday night. Usually a new movie they sell out those sessions. Also I was like to people at work I’m going to see X-Men and the reaction was

Theres another X-Men movie out?

There’s been absolutely no promotion here in Aus.

I haven’t seen much marketing myself either.

 

[Zarex]

My only point was the audience now wants more originality. But there is a certain fanbase that takes offense to a harmless opinion.

The XMen franchise is old,19 years is a long time, definitely a fatigue franchise. Every good thing must come to an end.

This isn't true. Of the top 10 domestic movies so far this year these is only one original IP. And there are franchises much older than the X-Men, including Rocky and James Bond, that have managed to fend off franchise fatigue. The problem with the X-Men franchise is not the audience.

Anybody paying even the slightest bit of attention should have seen where this was going when Fox announced that Simon Kinberg was writing and directing the next installment in the X-Men franchise. Which was going to be Dark Phoenix, his second attempt at the classic X-Men story. A story that requires build up that this interpretation would not be getting. And James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender and Jennifer Lawrence were all coming back in lead roles.

 

[samsnee]

I think the person meant originality in how these movies tell their stories, not necessarily original properties.

All the trailers for this movie made it look generic and recycled from things we’ve seen in a lot of other movies.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I just saw (well heard...I was in a different room) a new commercial on USA (channel). I know it was new because it had dialogue I hadn’t heard of before.

At the end it said “X-men: Dark Phoenix.”

Yea sorry Fox/Disney I don’t think that’s gonna help you at all.

 

[Raiders]

And the numbers from any of the movies, may they be sequels or reboots or adaptations of IPs that have come out in the past few years does not support that "opinion.".

I wasn’t talking about the past few years, you still don’t get it.

 

[psylockolussus]

Thats what they have been doing for the adverts since last week. Like I said before, they shouldn't have removed the X-Men in the title from the start.

 

[Dark Raven]

In the UK I'm pretty sure it's been retitled "X-Men: Dark Phoenix" for marketing purposes instead of dropping the X-Men brand.

 

[Raiders]

Uh, what? John Wick 3 is doing fantastically. Already well past the first two films in the series, and has gone past 225m, with gas left in the tank. Endgame is going to end up the highest grossing film of all time. You literally couldn't be more wrong about those two movies. Captain Marvel did fantastically, and Aladdin is doing well.

As for future releases this year. Do you expect Toy Story 4, Spider-Man, the Lion King, Frozen 2, and Star Wars all to not break a billion?

I see your point, Wick was a bad example, because it is an original concept that grew into a franchise, just like Fast and Furious and Star Wars. The stronger franchises will do well for now, but the weaker one like MIB won’t survive. Even though it is only four movie, MIB is a fatigue franchise because it been around for 22 years.
The Jurassic and Star Wars franchises play it smart by, they made a three movies franchise and took a 15,16,17 year break for a new generation. The last MIB movie was only seven years ago. They should have waited another ten years.

 

[Raiders]

The box office is not looking good, it’s sad that this historical franchise will end this way. On the hindsight, maybe it would has been better not to do a First Class reboot at all and letting X3 be the last team movie and spinning off Wolverine.
First Class reboot was a mistake, they was better off creating solo movies. I would have love seeing a Iceman movie and other solo X-Men.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I wasn’t talking about the past few years, you still don’t get it.

You’re the one who doesn’t get it. The Top 10 openings this year have all been Adaptations, Sequels and Reboots save for one: Us.

Ditto for 2018, save for one: Bohemian Rhapsody.

All of 2017’s Top 10 were Adaptations, Sequels and Prequels.

Now tell me again how an overwhelming majority likes original content and have “sequel and reboot fatigue.” It’s a nice sentiment but the facts don’t follow it.

 

[psylockolussus]

Its titled as X-Men Dark Phoenix in all markets eXcept for North America for some unknown reason. I feel a bit ocd looking at the titles, and they dropped the X-Men in the title, for example in Wikipedia since the movie is an American film, the title that they are using is the American title. In 20th Century Fox's official site, its just Dark Phoenix instead of X-Men Dark Phoenix. Its inconsistent compare to the previous titles.

In the UK I'm pretty sure it's been retitled "X-Men: Dark Phoenix" for marketing purposes instead of dropping the X-Men brand.

 

[Dark Raven]

Its titled as X-Men Dark Phoenix in all markets eXcept for North America for some unknown reason. I feel a bit ocd looking at the titles, and they dropped the X-Men in the title, for example in Wikipedia since the movie is an American film, the title that they are using is the American title. In 20th Century Fox's official site, its just Dark Phoenix instead of X-Men Dark Phoenix. Its inconsistent compare to the previous titles.

Maybe in the US they thought they were being too clever (or Kinberg thought he was being too clever) and that they could survive without the X-Men brand name. But that probably wouldn't do them any favours. It's like how Star Trek: Enterprise was only "Enterprise" for its first 2 seasons because they wanted to do something different and appeal to a wider audience, but ended up putting back the "Star Trek" into it later on because then no-one cared about the series.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Weekend Forecast: Dark Phoenix & The Secret Life of Pets 2
via boxoffice.com

SLOP2: $62Mil
DPh: $49.9Mil

boxofficeguru.com seems to have stopped doing forecasts on the Thursday before opening day. Ditto for boxofficemojo.com.

 

[EnDz0n3]

 

[I Am The Knight]

Weekend Forecast: Dark Phoenix & The Secret Life of Pets 2
via boxoffice.com

SLOP2: $62Mil
DPh: $49.9Mil

boxofficeguru.com seems to have stopped doing forecasts on the Thursday before opening day. Ditto for boxofficemojo.com.

Won't shock me if this gets to $45 million for the weekend. Those reviews / word of mouth won't help.

 

[Dark Raven]

How come this poll only goes up to over 700 million worldwide, and not in the 2 billion club like Avengers Endgame?

 

[EnDz0n3]

Unfortunately even the best X-men movies do that. Boxoffice analysts on the Sunday an X-men movie is released announce a number for the weekend. Not the forecasted number. It's the number that all the data they've collected says what the box office cume was for this movie.

On Monday they have to walk that back with a lesser number.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Spoke too soon. BoxOfficeMojo just put up their Thursday-scheduled Forecast. And it's depressing as hell.

'Secret Life of Pets 2' and 'Dark Phoenix' Look to Lead Weekend Box Office - Box Office Mojo

They forecast SLOP2 at $51Mil

And I'll turn over to Brad for the depressing part of the news:

Disney's release of Fox's final X-Men film, Dark Phoenix is finally hitting theaters after originally being slated for a November 2018 release. The film will debut in over 3,700 locations and while the studio is anticipating a debut in the $40-50 million range that is looking like it could be a tough range to hit. Reviews for the film are terrible, coming in at 23% on RottenTomatoes, ranking as the worst in the X-Men franchise on the aggregation site.

A look at IMDb page view performance is equally depressing, showing the film pacing well behind the likes of X-Men: Apocalypse and even 2017's The Mummy, which itself disappointed with a $31.6 million opening after dreadful reviews. The best comparison when looking at IMDb's page view data is actually 2016's Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, which Dark Phoenix is out-pacing over the two weeks leading up to release, but that film's $35 million debut is hardly impressive.

• The Secret Life of Pets 2 (4,561 theaters) - $51.0 M
• Dark Phoenix - $39.0 M

He's comparing the Box Office to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows PEOPLE!!! That movie made $82Mil Domestically!!!