The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[writer0327]

I think this film is certain to outdo R1, but the question is will this outdo TFA? I think it will land somewhere in between.

 

[spiderman2]

Been wanting for this thread to show up. I think a lot of people are underestimating what this movie is going to make USA wise. I have heard a lot of people say that 7 is going to have a big drop from 7 and I just don't see that. I think 8 is going to make at worst 100 million less USA then 7 did. A lot of people talk about how 7 had the OT cast and such but I think a lot of people where turned away from star wars after the PT and I think a lot of people trust star wars again after how well 7 turned out and after R1. So with that said I don't see a 200-300 million USA drop like a lot of people say. Before Fisher passed I was seeing similer numbers to 7. Now that she is gone I think the movie is going to do even better. I see around 1 to 1.1 billion USA. The rest of the world I think will do a little better then 7. So I think we are looking at around 1.2 billion rest of the world maybe a little more. If we could get China on board that could really get this movie to make some crazy numbers but that may be unlikely.

OW 300 Million with final boxoffice numbers has follow.
USA 1.1 billion
Out side 1.2 billion
WW 2.3 billion

 

[scarlet-witch]

$1.8 - $2 Billion

 

[Solidus]

I'd say there are a lot of factors.

I'd say at low 1.6 billion and at high about 2 billion.

It will depend on how it's received and if it has slick pacing which Rian says he seems to be aiming for.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

2.2 billion worldwide.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Anderson Silva money.

 

[AverageMan]

TFA rode the wave of nostalgia.
TLJ will have to establish it's own usp.
I'm expecting big numbers, possibly not quite of the level of TFA though.

 

[scifiwolf]

I voted $1.2-1.4 billion. The China market couldn't care less and the 30+ year absence of the big three on screen isn't a factor this time.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I voted $1.2-1.4 billion. The China market couldn't care less and the 30+ year absence of the big three on screen isn't a factor this time.

Actually using this logic, Luke really hasn't been on screen in 30+ years and sadly this will be the final time we get to see Carrie as Leia. And now the likes of Rey, Kylo, Finn, Poe and BB-8 are quite liked. It won't make TFA money, but I could totally see it topping JW.

 

[The Endless]

1.8 billion as a minimum. 2.8 billion maximum.

 

[writer0327]

How much of a factor will Carrie Fisher's passing play? At first, I thought it would be significant, but now I don't know.

I agree that the nostalgia angle is gone. With movies dropping every year, no one will be starved for Star Wars. The box office will rely purely on the strength of the film.

 

[SpideyJJ]

$1.8-$2.5 billion. Carrie Fisher's passing will definitely play a significant factor (RIP)

 

[Solidus]

Nostalgia can only carry some films so far. TFA’s box-office was riddled with multiple viewings by folks. Characters are what kept them coming back and a good film. No matter what the film was a new SW film after 10 years was going to have massive hype, TPM did. But TPM failed to have many multiple viewings mainly because most did not care for it unlike TFA. That is a huge factor in TLJ as well that many seem to forget. People love the new characters as well, and one of the most asked questions in the sphere of recent films are things like “Who is Rey’s parents?” “Who is Snoke?” “How did the First Order come to be?” “Why did Luke run?”



I think those alone will bring in a lot of folks and the likability built with the new characters. But one thing that will determine that even if it is a great film, it will need to have an easy re-watchablity for the general populace. Things like ESB did not do as well Box Office wise. Some wondered if it was because of its slower nature. Again, Rian seems to think his film is more like ANH/Raiders/TFA in terms of a roller coaster ride so that may help repeat viewings if it is good

 

[sycamore]

TFA rode the wave of nostalgia.
TLJ will have to establish it's own usp.
I'm expecting big numbers, possibly not quite of the level of TFA though.

TLJ will absolutely blow TFA out of the water. Audiences are going to go into this movie with confidence that it will be a good movie, something they didn't have going into TFA (which came on the heels of the Prequels).

 

[kickass]

I think there are 3 factors that will lead TLJ in making more money than TFA:

1) The general audiences love the new characters (Rey, Finn, Kylo, Poe) and will want to see more of them again.
2) We're getting more Luke this time. In fact, he is a major part of the plot. And after the cliffhanger type ending of TFA, people are dying to see what happens next.
3) This is Carrie Fisher's last film.

 

[writer0327]

I think there are 3 factors that will lead TLJ in making more money than TFA:

1) The general audiences love the new characters (Rey, Finn, Kylo, Poe) and will want to see more of them again.
2) We're getting more Luke this time. In fact, he is a major part of the plot. And after the cliffhanger type ending of TFA, people are dying to see what happens next.
3) This is Carrie Fisher's last film.

I don't doubt Carrie Fisher's passing will play a role, but I just wonder how much it will play.

I think TFA was a huge hit with general audiences because it was the first SW film in a while and so many people were excited to return to this universe, it got a ton of repeat viewings. However, TLJ will be the 3rd SW film in as many years, so I think some of that TFA excitement will be lessened.

I expect it will be solid at the BO, but it will really depend on the film itself and how good it is whether or not it eclipses TFA numbers.

 

[Filmfan93]

Been wanting for this thread to show up. I think a lot of people are underestimating what this movie is going to make USA wise. I have heard a lot of people say that 7 is going to have a big drop from 7 and I just don't see that. I think 8 is going to make at worst 100 million less USA then 7 did. A lot of people talk about how 7 had the OT cast and such but I think a lot of people where turned away from star wars after the PT and I think a lot of people trust star wars again after how well 7 turned out and after R1. So with that said I don't see a 200-300 million USA drop like a lot of people say. Before Fisher passed I was seeing similer numbers to 7. Now that she is gone I think the movie is going to do even better. I see around 1 to 1.1 billion USA. The rest of the world I think will do a little better then 7. So I think we are looking at around 1.2 billion rest of the world maybe a little more. If we could get China on board that could really get this movie to make some crazy numbers but that may be unlikely.

OW 300 Million with final boxoffice numbers has follow.
USA 1.1 billion
Out side 1.2 billion
WW 2.3 billion

No way it hits more than $2 billion WW. This is not TFA, but a very different animal.

 

[Silver Surfer]

235 million opening.

1.85 billion WW

 

[Inhuman117]

I hope Disney Doesnt hope to top that and will have the same Realistic Thaught like with Rogue One

 

[whenforeverisnt]

Before Carrie's passing, I thought it'd no way get close to the Force Awakens. Maybe 1.5 billion. But now... maybe? For instance, Fast 8 should never have made as much as it did. Especially compared with how much the rest of the films made. But people were curious about how Paul Walker's death would be managed. Same years ago with Heath Ledger's death making The Dark Knight a billion dollars compared to Batman Begin's $374 million. And Carrie Fisher is more beloved than both Paul and Heath were. So... Carrie's sad passing is going to help this movie a lot.

 

[spiderman2]

No way it hits more than $2 billion WW. This is not TFA, but a very different animal.

Saying a very different animal almost makes it sound like you think it is going to do something really crazy like 3 billion but they you say no way it hits more then 2 billion? So what are you thinking? I think the only way this movie makes less then 2 billion is if it is a bad movie.

 

[Sithborg]

Before Carrie's passing, I thought it'd no way get close to the Force Awakens. Maybe 1.5 billion. But now... maybe? For instance, Fast 8 should never have made as much as it did. Especially compared with how much the rest of the films made. But people were curious about how Paul Walker's death would be managed. Same years ago with Heath Ledger's death making The Dark Knight a billion dollars compared to Batman Begin's $374 million. And Carrie Fisher is more beloved than both Paul and Heath were. So... Carrie's sad passing is going to help this movie a lot.

Eh, China loves them their Vin Diesel.

 

[Filmfan93]

Saying a very different animal almost makes it sound like you think it is going to do something really crazy like 3 billion but they you say no way it hits more then 2 billion? So what are you thinking? I think the only way this movie makes less then 2 billion is if it is a bad movie.

Ok, let me explain:

1. TFA was the first SW film in 10 years and the first SW film in 32 years to feature the original cast. TLJ won't have either of these factors. It won't be the 1st SW film in 10 years nor it will feature the main cast for the first time in 32 years.

2. These same above mentioned novelty factors were used amazingly in a heavy and successful marketing campaign for TFA. And a successful marketing campaign always brings in the $$$.

3.TLJ won't rely as much on nostalgia.

4. A big factor that might bring it to $2 billion could be Carrie's death, but I don't see Disney trying to excessively take advantage of that.

5. As much as I don't want to say this, you have to consider a part of the audience that didn't like TFA and won't show up for TLJ. Of course, this also goes vice versa and many new fans were attracted as well.

By different animal I meant that TLJ will rely on different factors for its BO numbers than TFA did. It will be huge and i can barely wait for it, i am just trying to be objective. I believe it might hit somewhere between $1.5 - 1.8 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

Ok, let me explain:

1. TFA was the first SW film in 10 years and the first SW film in 32 years to feature the original cast. TLJ won't have either of these factors. It won't be the 1st SW film in 10 years nor it will feature the main cast for the first time in 32 years.

2. These same above mentioned novelty factors were used amazingly in a heavy and successful marketing campaign for TFA. And a successful marketing campaign always brings in the $$$.

3.TLJ won't rely as much on nostalgia.

4. A big factor that might bring it to $2 billion could be Carrie's death, but I don't see Disney trying to excessively take advantage of that.

5. As much as I don't want to say this, you have to consider a part of the audience that didn't like TFA and won't show up for TLJ. Of course, this also goes vice versa and many new fans were attracted as well.

By different animal I meant that TLJ will rely on different factors for its BO numbers than TFA did. It will be huge and i can barely wait for it, i am just trying to be objective. I believe it might hit somewhere between $1.5 - 1.8 billion.

1. I think people are underestimating how much damaged the PT did. Yes FA did great but had the PT been much better then I gurinte that FA would have done even better. People knowing that Luke will be in these movie a lot more then FA should help and again people are confident in star wars again. I think there were still a lot of people including me that thought FA would suck and I am sure this movie is going to have a lot of repeat views just like FA did.

2. I don't think FA did that amazing just because of having the old cast. I think it was more because it was a good movie. It had amazing legs. Even if a lot of people wanted to see it because of the old cast had it sucked it would have most likely fell off the cliph after the first week instead of having crazy good legs. Also not having Fisher around any more people are going to want to see her one last time.

3. Like 1 and 2 this dosnt even really matter much.

5. Yeah sure some people may not come back after FA because they didn't like it but considering most people liked or loved it most people are going to come back and are interested in the new charactors and what is going to happened with luke. Also FA with the way it turned out got new fans into it and again it restored faith in star wars again. So that means people that didn't see FA in theaters because they thought it was going to suck because of how bad the PT was are now going to want to see 8 after having not seen 7 in theaters but being surprised how good it turned out once they did see it later on.

Last this is star wars a franchise that I don't think is ever a good idea to underestimate and if FA was able to make has much has it made after the PT there is no reason this movie shouldn't be able to make more after coming of FA and R1 to good movies and FA didn't make a lot of money because people forgot about the PT or got over it. Things don't work like that people are going to remember. Like example batman begings when it come out in 2008 only like 7 years or so after batman and robin only made like 324 million and I am sure most people would agree that it should have made more with hot good of a movie it was and leading up to its release a lot of people were questing it because of batman and robin. With FA same thing a lot of people were questing it because of the PT.

 

[writer0327]

I think those who didn't like TFA will still go out and see TLJ. But my guess is it will take a slight dip just because they won't have the nostalgia factor that they had in TFA.