The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[SomeOldGuy]

I saw a few more pages and the Monday number seems to have been corroborated by both Rth and EmpireCity so that (27-28) million CD is pretty much a given at this point. I think the CD number should be deemed a crash. I mean TLJ only increased 60%. That's really low. I think there's no spinning that number. It is bad. But what caused it??.

Don’t know yet. Did every film have a soft day yesterday or just TLJ? Are people just waiting for discount Tuesday? Is it mixed WoM? Need more data.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Don’t know yet. Did every film have a soft day yesterday or just TLJ?

I seems like only TLJ had a tepid increase on Monday among the current crop of movies.

Are people just waiting for discount Tuesday?

I get your point here. CD and discount Tuesday being next to each other probably did some damage and there are simply no other historical precedents to look at because Discount tickets weren't thing in 2006. But I find it hard to believe that families will not watch TLJ on one of the biggest days of the year just to avail tickets at a relatively lower price the next day.

Is it mixed WoM?

I think there is certainly a case that can be made in favor this.

Need more data.

Don't we always.

 

[InCali]

I am also beginning to think that this may be playing out like a traditional trilogy. Strong first chapter, weaker second, finishes even stronger. I guess we are so used to the MCU and them not playing out like that, that we have forgotten about how trilogies have traditionally played out.

I pointed out earlier that I expected TFA to be the biggest BO hit, TLJ to bring in the least, and Ep9 to be somewhere in between. Sound familiar (Think OT)?

I predicted 1.4-1.6B so I see the BO results as not surprising (so far) nor particularly good. Let's see what the next week brings and we'll know more.

EDIT: I watched football games on Monday and didn't even consider going to the theater. IMO, people who want to compare movies by adjusting for inflation are way off base. There are so many more option for entertainment today that the comparisons over 10, 20, 30 years don't make any sense.

 

[Flemm]

Snyder deconstructs, because that is how he thinks it should be. Johnson deconstructs in order to build it back up.

Fans of BvS made the argument that it was supposed to be a deconstruction/reconstruction.

It would all be reconstructed in Justice League. What a brilliant idea. A Superman trilogy built around deconstructing the most iconic superhero, then building him back up into the more traditional character that people like.

I even acknowledged that the softer drop on 24th does point to an increase on the slightly lower side on 25th but the extent of it is sorta baffling to me.

It might be that parents are not too enthusiastic about The Last Jedi as a movie for their kids.

Some of the friends I go with in the first week will go back with their kids if they think a particular genre movie is a good fit for them, but they decided "nay" for this movie. Too long and boring, mostly.

 

[Zant]

Can Beauty and the Beast still win 2017 worldwide?

 

[InCali]

Can Beauty and the Beast still win 2017 worldwide?

It seems unlikely.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

27.5 per Mendelson.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...t-showman-struggle-on-christmas/#67a784fa56a0

 

[Silver Surfer]

Damn, 5 million less than the estimate. The enthusiasm around this movie has just evaporated.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Damn, 5 million less than the estimate. The enthusiasm around this movie has just evaporated.

If that were the case, I wouldn’t have expected Sunday’s number. It started at 14 and ended up at 17. That was a 40% drop, which is unexpectedly good for Xmas eve. Then we get a weaker than expected Xmas day. TLJ seems to give us a different read every day.

 

[gerrym51]

Hard to believe the grief people are having over a movie that will at the least make a 300 million dollar profit.

 

[InCali]

Hard to believe the grief people are having over a movie that will at the least make a 300 million dollar profit.

Yeah. I tend to agree and it'll probably make in excess of that number. That being said, when it came to BvS, I heard a lot of defenders saying "Hey. it still made money. What's the problem?" The problem was that it sunk JL. I don't see TLJ having the same effect, but it isn't all about making money. It's partially about setting the stage for the next chapter. Don't get me wrong, I don't see a collapse for Ep 9 along the lines of JL.

 

[BatLobster]

If there's a JL-like effect on Episode IX and it actually far-underperforms, I will be shocked.

It's a totally different situation, imo. The starting points for these respective franchises are The Force Awakens and Man of Steel. One is one of the biggest hits of this century and a reintroduction of Star Wars to a new generation and the other is a modestly successful, but underperforming reboot of Superman.

One of these franchises is clearly more popular with kids and families than the other, and that makes a huge difference alone.

No denying that TLJ is causing a sharp fan divide, but I'm not sure how much that's going to actually effect the box office for the next film. I do think the Star Wars-fatigue factor is something Disney should keep an eye on. But the characters of Rey and Kylo have massive popularity with a new generation of fans, and I have little doubt people will still flock to the theaters in a couple of years to see the conclusion of their story.

Obviously, I could be wrong. I just haven't seen anything drastic enough with the box office of this film yet to suggest that this franchise is in actual trouble. Nobody in their right mind was expecting anything near TFA, which was a once in a generation type of phenomenon. Besides, there's historical precedent for the middle chapter in Star Wars trilogies to have a bit of a dip. DC/WB would kill right now to have their "underperformer" on track to cruise past 1 billion and likely end up somewhere near 1.3-4 billion.

 

[Mjölnir]

Hard to believe the grief people are having over a movie that will at the least make a 300 million dollar profit.

BO shouldn't be relevant whatsoever to people's opinions about the film, regardless if we happen to like or dislike it. The Transformers movies have been flogged far worse than TLJ in movie discussions yet they've made a ton of money as well so it's not very unique even from a statistical point of view.

 

[Iceman]

BO shouldn't be relevant whatsoever to people's opinions about the film, regardless if we happen to like or dislike it. The Transformers movies have been flogged far worse than TLJ in movie discussions yet they've made a ton of money as well so it's not very unique even from a statistical point of view.

The numbers are finally starting to catch up with Transformers at least. Shame it took so long.

 

[gerrym51]

BO shouldn't be relevant whatsoever to people's opinions about the film, regardless if we happen to like or dislike it. The Transformers movies have been flogged far worse than TLJ in movie discussions yet they've made a ton of money as well so it's not very unique even from a statistical point of view.

Isn't this a Box Office thread? This threads viewpoint is boxoffice and profitability.

As to how good or bad a movie is-that's for other threads

 

[rashad]

‘Last Jedi’ Now At $99M
http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-je...efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

 

[Silver Surfer]

Last Jedi only made $2.9M more than Rogue One did a year ago over the four-day Christmas holiday.

Someone press the big red button with the word panic on it.

 

[InCali]

If there's a JL-like effect on Episode IX and it actually far-underperforms, I will be shocked.

It's a totally different situation, imo. The starting points for these respective franchises are The Force Awakens and Man of Steel. One is one of the biggest hits of this century and a reintroduction of Star Wars to a new generation and the other is a modestly successful, but underperforming reboot of Superman.

One of these franchises is clearly more popular with kids and families than the other, and that makes a huge difference alone.

No denying that TLJ is causing a sharp fan divide, but I'm not sure how much that's going to actually effect the box office for the next film. I do think the Star Wars-fatigue factor is something Disney should keep an eye on. But the characters of Rey and Kylo have massive popularity with a new generation of fans, and I have little doubt people will still flock to the theaters in a couple of years to see the conclusion of their story.

Obviously, I could be wrong. I just haven't seen anything drastic enough with the box office of this film yet to suggest that this franchise is in actual trouble. Nobody in their right mind was expecting anything near TFA, which was a once in a generation type of phenomenon. Besides, there's historical precedent for the middle chapter in Star Wars trilogies to have a bit of a dip. DC/WB would kill right now to have their "underperformer" on track to cruise past 1 billion and likely end up somewhere near 1.3-4 billion.

I agree. I was bringing it up more in the sense that a movie is more than just its BO numbers. Just ask Batman Begins.....well, you can't really talk to a movie and expect it to hear....just sayin'....

 

[InCali]

Someone press the big red button with the word panic on it.

Not just yet.

 

[Iceman]

Hard to believe the grief people are having over a movie that will at the least make a 300 million dollar profit.

Star Wars is the biggest franchise on the planet so the rules are different. If Black Panther or Aquaman turn a $300m profit then of course the box office threads for those will be one-sided. But the last Star Wars film made more domestically than most films make worldwide. A $300m profit for Star Wars is not something unusual that will stop (over)analysis of its box office results.

 

[jmc]

Look, the Xmas break and competition can only count for so much, and yes it is not a failure by any normal means, but a nearly 70% drop off from last weekend is not a good look for the franchise. The word of mouth here clearly isn't as good as what the polling has suggested it was. The only conclusion I can come to for this anomaly is the initial high score with Cinemascore is a result of enough people liking enough of the film to give it a pass, but not loving it enough to watch it again and again. But it's not so much this film that's the concern, it was always going to make money, it's the future films that should be of concern moving forward after this. We've already got precedent this year of what happens when you deliver a big name film that divides audiences.

 

[InCali]

Look, the Xmas break and competition can only count for so much, and yes it is not a failure by any normal means, but a nearly 70% drop off from last weekend is not a good look for the franchise. The word of mouth here clearly isn't as good as what the polling has suggested it was. The only conclusion I can come to for this anomaly is the initial high score with Cinemascore is a result of enough people liking enough of the film to give it a pass, but not loving it enough to watch it again and again. But it's not so much this film that's the concern, it was always going to make money, it's the future films that should be of concern moving forward after this. We've already got precedent this year of what happens when you deliver a big name film that divides audiences.

In principle, I agree and mentioned this earlier, but this is far from a BvS that delivered a 27% RT score only to be followed up by a movie that got around 40%.

As Mark Twain once, purportedly, said “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

 

[gerrym51]

Grace's take on this is interesting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_PLxzm6uJQ

 

[Iceman]

Someone press the big red button with the word panic on it.

I didn’t realise the Xmas numbers were so close to Rogue 1.

 

[jmc]

In principle, I agree and mentioned this earlier, but this is far from a BvS that delivered a 27% RT score only to be followed up by a movie that got around 40%.

As Mark Twain once, purportedly, said “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

We're looking at a situation we're something of an anomaly is occurring between critics and word of mouth, this isn't following any pattern that we're use to. So all bets are off right now as to what happens next.