The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Smurphftw]

3d actually makes the film worse in my opinion.

I'm a 3D enthusiast so obviously I disagree rather strongly with that statement. Doctor Strange, Guardians 2, and Thor 3 benefited greatly from 3D.

 

[InCali]

TLJ is tracking very close to RO now. 12/26 was $27.7 million (vs 32.1 for the same calendar day for RO). 12/27 was $21.5 mil (vs $22.5 for RO). RO's 3rd Friday take was basically the same as the prior Wednesday (12/30 and 12/28). If the calendar day tracking continues, TLJ is set to do a little over $20 million this Friday. Friday to Saturday hold should be stronger this year since NYE falls on Sunday instead of Saturday like last year. So let's say Saturday is up a bit from Friday instead of down 20% like RO.

It basically did 22M yesterday (Wednesday). I'm no box office expert, but I don't foresee a similar number on Wednesday and Friday. By the end of Sunday it should be well, WELL into the 500Ms. We'll see.

 

[InCali]

I'm a 3D enthusiast so obviously I disagree rather strongly with that statement. Doctor Strange, Guardians 2, and Thor 3 benefited greatly from 3D.

Welcome to the (small) club. I have a 3D home projector and think 3d, if done well, really adds to the movie. I stop even noticing it after awhile. It helps the movie from an immersion standpoint (for me anyway).

 

[Greens]

3D is trash as long as the lenses make the picture darker.

 

[InCali]

3D is trash as long as the lenses make the picture darker.

Thanks for setting us straight. We don't want to watch trash so we'll stop watching things in 3D.

The Cinemark I frequent uses dual projectors, so the brightness is better....still trash but brighter trash.

 

[Smurphftw]

Welcome to the (small) club. I have a 3D home projector and think 3d, if done well, really adds to the movie. I stop even noticing it after awhile. It helps the movie from an immersion standpoint (for me anyway).

It's a small club yes but a very enthusiastic and loyal club. A niche market that can be profitable if exploited properly.

I agree that the brightness issue isn't really an issue anymore. Or at least it can be overcome fairly easily.

 

[007]

I'm a 3D enthusiast so obviously I disagree rather strongly with that statement. Doctor Strange, Guardians 2, and Thor 3 benefited greatly from 3D.

I accidently saw Thor in 3d and it definitley took away from the experience. Hated it. Not the film obviously, that was great. But 3d is something I can definitely do without.

 

[007]

3D in Avatar or 3D in films in general? For me it improves Avatar but makes most films worse. Hopefully that will change in the long term future when they finally get to grips with this technology. Surround sound has improved the cinematic experience and in theory I don't see why true 3D wouldn't also make films more immersive. I believe they came out with the tech way too early and also didn't commit to it. A 2D upconversion is like filming something in black and white and then using software to predict the real colours later.

Oh in general, I never saw avatar in 3d. And I agree with the rest of what you said, it should be a lot better.

 

[Iceman]

Oh in general, II never saw avatar in 3d. And I agree with the rest of what you said, it should be a lot better.

It's a shame you can't see it now in a cinema in 3D. I haven't seen every recent film in 3D as I gave up on it a while back but it was something else. The world's had real depth to them rather than the usual 3D gimmicks of something popping out and hitting you in the face every 10 minutes. It is still a technological cinematic marvel in my book (even though the film itself isn't otherwise memorable to me) and should have moved things permanently forward, but other films just didn't pick up the baton.

 

[gerrym51]

it's to bad for TLJ to be compared to TFA-but it is a sequal of a sort.

A seven hundred million dollar drop would usually be bad.

However i'm of the opinion that TFA was unique.

 

[spiderman2]

Oh in general, I never saw avatar in 3d. And I agree with the rest of what you said, it should be a lot better.

I never saw Avatar is theater because I had zero interest in that movie and it didn't look good from the previews to me and I can tell if I am going to like a movie or not from previews like 95% of the time. I saw avatar on video only because after how crazy it did and all the talk about it I had to see what the whole big thing was about with the movie. I thought the movie was very so so but I missed the 3d that ever one was talking about. When it comes to 3d I think any movie that is in 3d is a must to see the movie in 3d and I don't find it hard to see or darker or any thing but unfortatly like ever one I know hates 3d. It drives me crazy has I tend to have to sacrifice and not see a movie in 3d if I am going to go to the movies with someone.

 

[spiderman2]

it's to bad for TLJ to be compared to TFA-but it is a sequal of a sort.

A seven hundred million dollar drop would usually be bad.

However i'm of the opinion that TFA was unique.

Its bad you can say that TFA was unique but this is star wars and star wars its self is unique and TFA being good after the bad prequles should have helped to get people back into star wars and want to see TLJ even more.

 

[Mysteryman]

Its bad you can say that TFA was unique but this is star wars and star wars its self is unique and TFA being good after the bad prequles should have helped to get people back into star wars and want to see TLJ even more.

It doesn’t work that way.

 

[spiderman2]

It doesn’t work that way.

Yeah it does and you have to wonder to with the over all reception that this movie is getting if it will effect episode 9 boxoffice to.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A 30-40% drop is inexcusable, especially after the opening was only 10% behind. The conversation around this movie has undoubtedly cut its legs a great deal.

 

[dataSlave]

It basically did 22M yesterday (Wednesday). I'm no box office expert, but I don't foresee a similar number on Wednesday and Friday. By the end of Sunday it should be well, WELL into the 500Ms. We'll see.

If you look at RO and TFA's first 5 weeks, 9 of 10 times Thursday was down from Wednesday. 3rd week Friday was flat with Wednesday for RO. It was up 20% for TFA but Friday also fell on NY's day.

 

[dataSlave]

It doesn’t work that way.

If it weren't unique, Disney wouldn't have paid over $4 billion for the franchise. Actually half the deal was stock so it's worth $6.4 billion now plus the $140 million in dividends they've paid to Lucas on his stock so far.

 

[Flemm]

Yeah it does and you have to wonder to with the over all reception that this movie is getting if it will effect episode 9 boxoffice to.

Controversy among established fans aside, to my mind they have not done a fantastic job of making the franchise appealing for people who didn't already care about it.

The first movie may have had some overly familiar elements for fans of the first trilogy (because they recognized them all), but I thought it was a solid introduction for people who weren't already aware and invested.

By contrast, there are some things in this movie that invested fans may get fired up about, but for somebody who doesn't already care a lot, I don't think this movie has that much to offer. Or at least nothing out of the ordinary for this type of movie.

Some cool sequences. But a lot of commentary on the older movies.

Over the long term, they may need to rethink that strategy a bit. Maybe in the new movies that are being developed.

 

[Darepool]

Agreed, it doesn't work that way.

But a 700 m drop would not be great either. I think 300-400 million would be more then acceptable.

 

[InCali]

If you look at RO and TFA's first 5 weeks, 9 of 10 times Thursday was down from Wednesday. 3rd week Friday was flat with Wednesday for RO. It was up 20% for TFA but Friday also fell on NY's day.

I read and understood what you said the first time. Like I said, time will tell. Friday may not be up much from Wednesday and Thursday will almost certainly be down. We will see, but any move into the 500M+++ range after 17 days is killing it at the BO. I'm not one of those overboard people who predicted 2B+. I predicted 1.4-1.6 and it still seems reasonable.

Nice to see someone who has never been on SHH be so clued in with regards to this sort of thing. You've obviously thought about these details and should have been posting before now.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Its bad you can say that TFA was unique but this is star wars and star wars its self is unique and TFA being good after the bad prequles should have helped to get people back into star wars and want to see TLJ even more.

Your views on this are just not supported by any experts. It just isn't.

 

[Mysteryman]

If it weren't unique, Disney wouldn't have paid over $4 billion for the franchise. Actually half the deal was stock so it's worth $6.4 billion now plus the $140 million in dividends they've paid to Lucas on his stock so far.

Disney paid all of that money because because they foresaw mega profits.
They got it with TFA and they will get it with TLJ a billion is a billion any way that you slice it.
That having been said, no franchise is immune to holiday anomalies, Like Christmas eve on a Sunday and Christmas on a Monday.
Those seemingly little things do make a difference.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agreed, it doesn't work that way.

But a 700 m drop would not be great either. I think 300-400 million would be more then acceptable.

The obvious problem with this is you are saying this when the original came in the third highest grossing film of all time, and by far the biggest domestic gross of all time.

Also accounting for an overseas dropped aided by a stronger dollar.

In no world is 1.3bil not good. It would be the 9th highest grossing film of all time.

 

[cristianegan]

The obvious problem with this is you are saying this when the original came in the third highest grossing film of all time, and by far the biggest domestic gross of all time.

Also accounting for an overseas dropped aided by a stronger dollar.

In no would is 1.3bil not good.

The dollar is currently a bit weaker than it was 2 years ago.

 

[TheVileOne]

Hardly anyone is shooting in 3D anymore anyway. IMAX discontinued 3D showings. It's pretty much dead.