The McCain Thread

[The Senator]

I think you are putting too much stock in current Georgian polls, jman. I don't think it will be anywhere as close to purple as current polls indicate. I don't think it'll end up close enough for five percent to make a difference. Obama is still enjoying the post-primary grace period.

We'll see where we're at in a few months.

I'm currently putting stock in the demographics which make up that state, as well as the results of both the Democratic and Republican primaries. Moreover, I'm counting on the massive Democratic GOTV efforts to cause McCain to spend time and money campaigning in a state he shouldn't have to campaign in. I'm not counting on a win, just a distraction for the Republicans.

I think that could happen in a lot of states, including (but not limited to) the Dakotas, North Carolina, Montana, Alaska and Indiana. Georgia is just another such state.

 

[Mr Sparkle]

You're hardly neutral though.

really? why's that?

 

[Matt]

We'll see where we're at in a few months.

I'm currently putting stock in the demographics which make up that state, as well as the results of both the Democratic and Republican primaries. Moreover, I'm counting on the massive Democratic GOTV efforts to cause McCain to spend time and money campaigning in a state he shouldn't have to campaign in. I'm not counting on a win, just a distraction for the Republicans.

I think that could happen in a lot of states, including (but not limited to) the Dakotas, North Carolina, Montana, Alaska and Indiana. Georgia is just another such state.

McCain won't do the work in a state like Georgia, though. It won't be a distraction or an extra cost for John McCain. He will let 527s deliver the state for him. I read an article a few months back that claimed McCain's campaign will be unprecedented as he will not have the money that most modern Republicans have grown accustomed to and he will be very dependent on 527s and free press time.

really? why's that?

I'll let you figure that one out.

 

[Mr Sparkle]

It is no different than Obama supporters using "McBush" or "Well McCain does this," or "Everyone does it," argument. That is what this election will become.

And Sparkle, I'd thank you to not assume who I will and will not vote for. Last I checked you are not able to read my mind. I would've taken running mate and debates into account before I made a decision. This blew it. No matter how you spin this, no matter how stupid it would've been for Obama to keep his word, he did go back on a promise. Plain and simple and for someone who is meant to represent "change," that is unforgivable.

this election has become what people have made it into.
a man gets penalized because he used the words "hope" and "change" instead of sticking by the old standards of "job growth" even he didn't provide any, and "greatest nation in the world" until his head exploded.
mind you, no promises any politician ever makes are expected to be kept.
from Reagan to McCain whose stint as a soldier makes his stance on the GI bill ever the more baffling, whose experience as a soldier makes his stance on the Tax Cuts, the first time the US has received tax cuts instead of raises during war time by the way, all the more confusing.

nobody talks about that, though, nobody cares, they are too busy pointing and laughing at a man whose fatal flaw apparently is having charisma.


and, excuse me for assuming I know the contents of your mind, really, pardon me for thinking that you weren't going to vote for a man you have repeatedly said "had no business" running for president I just don't understand how you thought debates and running mates were going to change your mind, unless he was running alongside the almighty.
of course, you seem to have no trouble addressing my neutrality on this.
it seems along with your mod-powers you were given a peek into MY mind.
again.

go figure.

ya have been using extreme words for the man, like "unforgivable" I don;t really know why, I find a man who is willing to screw over soldiers, a group he was once part of,not because it's right, but for political gain

"unforgivable"

a man who once spearheaded a sweeping immigration reform that included a path to citizenship, now when it's politically profitable, reverse his stance and talk of the most important issue as "securing the borders" (when he had previously said that was only a part, but the most important part was immigration reform) well, that to me seems about as telling of his character

that also seems "unforgivable" to me.

I wonder why it is though, that you so readily overlook these facts and simply focus on Obama with such vigor.

I wonder.

 

[Mr Sparkle]

I'll let you figure that one out.

don't tell me, tell us all. so we might know the insight into my views that you and only you seem to have.

 

[The Senator]

McCain won't do the work in a state like Georgia, though. It won't be a distraction or an extra cost for John McCain. He will let 527s deliver the state for him. I read an article a few months back that claimed McCain's campaign will be unprecedented as he will not have the money that most modern Republicans have grown accustomed to and he will be very dependent on 527s and free press time.

Ah, but here's the thing: By forcing 527s to campaign in states such as Georgia, the Dakotas, and North Carolina, that essentially limits their resources in swing states such as Missouri, Michigan and Ohio, where the media markets are more expensive. So, 527s can spend money in typical red states, but won't that essentially drain their resources in more important states?

Meanwhile, 527s can only attack, meaning they cannot directly endorse John McCain for President. So McCain will lose ground with voters in Georgia, North Carolina, etc. simply because a pro-McCain message isn't being promoted among the people who need to hear it most. On the other hand, Obama can spend money promoting himself not only in Georgia, North Carolina, etc., but in major swing states such as Missouri and Ohio. And at the same time, independent Democratic groups such as MoveOn.org can attack McCain in those very same states.

 

[Matt]

don't tell me, tell us all. so we might know the insight into my views that you and only you seem to have.

I'll be happy to explain what we (and probably countless others) both know to anyone who is curious via PM. I'm not going to bother arguing with you Sparkle as it is as pointless as arguing with a three year old.

 

[Matt]

Ah, but here's the thing: By forcing 527s to campaign in states such as Georgia, the Dakotas, and North Carolina, that essentially limits their resources in swing states such as Missouri, Michigan and Ohio, where the media markets are more expensive. So, 527s can spend money in typical red states, but won't that essentially drain their resources in more important states?

But as Norman said, it will not be the national groups. It will be state level 527s.

Meanwhile, 527s can only attack, meaning they cannot directly endorse John McCain for President. So McCain will lose ground with voters in Georgia, North Carolina, etc. simply because a pro-McCain message isn't being promoted among the people who need to hear it most. On the other hand, Obama can spend money promoting himself not only in Georgia, North Carolina, etc., but in major swing states such as Missouri and Ohio. And at the same time, independent Democratic groups such as MoveOn.org can attack McCain in those very same states.

We both know there are ways around the "can only attack," rule. You're right, they can. But overly negative attacks against McCain by Obama and MoveOn could easily alienate Georgian voters against Obama.

 

[The Senator]

this election has become what people have made it into.
a man gets penalized because he used the words "hope" and "change" instead of sticking by the old standards of "job growth" even he didn't provide any, and "greatest nation in the world" until his head exploded.
mind you, no promises any politician ever makes are expected to be kept.
from Reagan to McCain whose stint as a soldier makes his stance on the GI bill ever the more baffling, whose experience as a soldier makes his stance on the Tax Cuts, the first time the US has received tax cuts instead of raises during war time by the way, all the more confusing.

nobody talks about that, though, nobody cares, they are too busy pointing and laughing at a man whose fatal flaw apparently is having charisma.


and, excuse me for assuming I know the contents of your mind, really, pardon me for thinking that you weren't going to vote for a man you have repeatedly said "had no business" running for president I just don't understand how you thought debates and running mates were going to change your mind, unless he was running alongside the almighty.
of course, you seem to have no trouble addressing my neutrality on this.
it seems along with your mod-powers you were given a peek into MY mind.
again.

go figure.

ya have been using extreme words for the man, like "unforgivable" I don;t really know why, I find a man who is willing to screw over soldiers, a group he was once part of,not because it's right, but for political gain

"unforgivable"

a man who once spearheaded a sweeping immigration reform that included a path to citizenship, now when it's politically profitable, reverse his stance and talk of the most important issue as "securing the borders" (when he had previously said that was only a part, but the most important part was immigration reform) well, that to me seems about as telling of his character

that also seems "unforgivable" to me.

I wonder why it is though, that you so readily overlook these facts and simply focus on Obama with such vigor.

I wonder.

Post of the day, by far

While I understand Matt's dislike for Obama, I do believe that there has been a huge double standard when it comes to McCain. IN HIS OWN THREAD, there is little mention or criticism of the flip-flopping and backstabbing McCain has done not only as a politician, but as a veteran and a "maverick." This man has become a sell-out simply so he can impress the Republican base, many of whom still aren't satisfied with him and won't be until he starts declaring that he was visited by God halfway between his first divorce and his magical conversion to Baptism over a year ago. McCain changed his position on several issues, sometimes more than once; he had his own pastor problems; and his connections and utterances throughout his life trump that of Obama tenfold. Yet, Obama is the one being criticized, with no mention of McCain, in the McCain thread.

It seems rather excessive to me.

 

[Mr Sparkle]

I'll be happy to explain what we (and probably countless others) both know to anyone who is curious via PM. I'm not going to bother arguing with you Sparkle as it is as pointless as arguing with a three year old.

hahaha! what a pathetic cop-out.
so, you call me biased publicly, you apparently had no trouble doing that, and when asked to back up your argument you go on about the futility of arguing with me.

glad to know, at least YOU know when you're wrong.
and If arguing like me is like arguing with a three year old, then, it must be humbling to know a three year old could own you in a debate.

I'm just saying is all

 

[Matt]

...yawn.

 

[The Senator]

But as Norman said, it will not be the national groups. It will be state level 527s.

Ah, but then, state level 527s are virtually non-existent in the Dakotas and Montana, and they are poorly funded in larger states such as Georgia or North Carolina, which also have fairly expensive media markets. As a result, national 527s are going to have to intervene, thereby limiting the resources available at the national level.

We both know there are ways around the "can only attack," rule. You're right, they can. But overly negative attacks against McCain by Obama and MoveOn could easily alienate Georgian voters against Obama.

And that's fine with me. I'm not counting on an Obama win in Georgia, I'm counting on the GOP, 527s and McCain having to spend more time and money in these states than they should, causing a distraction.

 

[Mr Sparkle]

...yawn.

wow, wit AND insight.
a true Renaissance man.

 

[Matt]

Ah, but then, state level 527s are virtually non-existent in the Dakotas and Montana, and they are poorly funded in larger states such as Georgia or North Carolina, which also have fairly expensive media markets. As a result, national 527s are going to have to intervene, thereby limiting the resources available at the national level.

But all this is operating under the assumption that McCain is actually threatened in these traditionally red states and it is not simply a post-primary bump. I'm willing to bet that following the announcement of a VP for McCain (so long as its a good one) or the Republican Convention, McCain will have the traditional dominant lead in most of these red states that Obama is supposedly putting in play.

And that's fine with me. I'm not counting on an Obama win in Georgia, I'm counting on the GOP, 527s and McCain having to spend more time and money in these states than they should, causing a distraction.

But my point is, they will not need to if Obama and groups like MoveOn overplay their hand.

 

[Cmill216]

Peoples, can we please discuss the Crypt Keeper's latest on-goings without the petty back-and-forth?

Thank you.

 

[The Senator]

But all this is operating under the assumption that McCain is actually threatened in these traditionally red states and it is not simply a post-primary bump. I'm willing to bet that following the announcement of a VP for McCain (so long as its a good one) or the Republican Convention, McCain will have the traditional dominant lead in most of these red states that Obama is supposedly putting in play.

Of course, this comes back to the make up of this election, and why it was a brilliant idea for Obama to forgo public financing. Never before has a Democrat been competitive in states such as Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska and Indiana. It doesn't make any sense why John Kerry or Al Gore didn't spend time campaigning in some of these states. Had Al Gore spent a few days and $10 million in a state like North Dakota, he could have won the 2000 election. These states, while red, are far more purple than people seem to think-- especially Montana, which has a Democratic governor and two Democratic Senators with extremely high approval ratings.

This is why it makes brilliant sense for Obama to campaign there. I read an article which suggested that the only reason why states such as Indiana haven't turned blue is because people have ridden it off as a "red state," thus preventing candidates from selling themselves to independents in those states. If Obama spends a week of his time in some of these smaller states, he could have a dangerous advantage against McCain. Yeah, the Dakotas and Montana only add to a collective 9 electoral votes, but if he won all three of those states, Iowa, and one Western state, he could win the electoral vote. Better still, if he wins Iowa and Indiana, he wins.

So, strategically, it makes a lot of sense for Obama to spend money in these states. It forces McCain and co. to spend money in states they shouldn't have to defend. And then, it draws resources from other states, which gives Obama an incredible advantage you cannot deny exists.

But my point is, they will not need to if Obama and groups like MoveOn overplay their hand.

Considering MoveOn has only released two ads in the past three months, and Obama one national ad, I do not think we have to worry about them "overplaying their hand" any time soon.

 

[Marx]

Can McCain claim the Ron Paul votes?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080622/pl_politico/11246

 

[Marx]

Tom Ridge not ruling out a VP run
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/22/tom-ridge-not-ruling-out-a-vp-run/

 

[chaseter]

Peoples, can we please discuss the Crypt Keeper's latest on-goings without the petty back-and-forth?

Thank you.

Crypt Keeper?

 

[Matt]

Tom Ridge not ruling out a VP run
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/22/tom-ridge-not-ruling-out-a-vp-run/

Bah, Ridge is just grandstanding. Though he had political ambitions, he killed any chance of getting elected to higher office by accepting the homeland security position where he essentially became the constant bearer of bad news for the American people. But now that I think about it former governor of PA (for a little bit anyhow) and Ridge's Lt.Governor Mark Schweiker of PA could make a good running mate. He's young, charasmatic, and handled both the 9/11 attacks and the Quecreek mine disaster very well. He was very popular when he decided not to run for governor in 2003 (most polls indicated he would've defeated Rendell easily). He could potentially deliver PA to McCain. Hmm, I doubt he is on anyone's radar though.

 

[Marx]

Bah, Ridge is just grandstanding. Though he had political ambitions, he killed any chance of getting elected to higher office by accepting the homeland security position where he essentially became the constant bearer of bad news for the American people. But now that I think about it former governor of PA (for a little bit anyhow) and Ridge's Lt.Governor Mark Schweiker of PA could make a good running mate. He's young, charasmatic, and handled both the 9/11 attacks and the Quecreek mine disaster very well. He was very popular when he decided not to run for governor in 2003 (most polls indicated he would've defeated Rendell easily). He could potentially deliver PA to McCain. Hmm, I doubt he is on anyone's radar though.

Pretty much anyone that has had any ties to the Bush Administration is a really bad idea for McCain.

 

[Marx]

Analysis: Three women who could join GOP ticket
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080622/pl_politico/11258

 

[The Senator]

Palin is totally laughable. She has virtually no experience as the governor of one of the five most insignificant states in the country. What has she done which proves she'd be worthy of the Presidency if McCain was unable to finish his term in office? She would only serve as a trophy Vice Presidential candidate, and most voters will see through such a charade.

Fiorina has no governmental experience whatsoever. I want to know what makes people think that a business executive has the right experience to be president or vice president of the United States. Fiorina could make a good cabinet official, perhaps Secretary of Commerce, but she is in no way qualified to be Vice President of the United States. Again, voters will see through such a tactic.

Hutchison is the only one of those three qualified for the position, but I wonder if she'll actually take it if offered. She has her sights set on the Texas governorship in 2010, and sources say she's been preparing for a run for quite some time. Plus, she won't help McCain in a swing state, as Texas will go to the Republicans.

While I'm sure McCain would like to pick a woman or a minority to siphon votes from the Democrats, I don't think there are many qualified choices who fit that model.

 

[Marx]

Palin is totally laughable. She has virtually no experience as the governor of one of the five most insignificant states in the country. What has she done which proves she'd be worthy of the Presidency if McCain was unable to finish his term in office? She would only serve as a trophy Vice Presidential candidate, and most voters will see through such a charade.

Fiorina has no governmental experience whatsoever. I want to know what makes people think that a business executive has the right experience to be president or vice president of the United States. Fiorina could make a good cabinet official, perhaps Secretary of Commerce, but she is in no way qualified to be Vice President of the United States. Again, voters will see through such a tactic.

Hutchison is the only one of those three qualified for the position, but I wonder if she'll actually take it if offered. She has her sights set on the Texas governorship in 2010, and sources say she's been preparing for a run for quite some time. Plus, she won't help McCain in a swing state, as Texas will go to the Republicans.

While I'm sure McCain would like to pick a woman or a minority to siphon votes from the Democrats, I don't think there are many qualified choices who fit that model.

I would agree Jman. I think his VP is ultimately going to be a guy. Probably Mitt Romney of Mike Huckabee. I just have a feeling...

 

[The Senator]

I would agree Jman. I think his VP is ultimately going to be a guy. Probably Mitt Romney of Mike Huckabee. I just have a feeling...

A lot of people say that McCain should try to fill the "gender" or "race" gap with his VP choice.

However, I think he should fill the "young Senator with a funny sounding name" gap by picking John Sununu, the junior Senator from New Hampshire. Sununu is young, somewhat experienced, and from a swing state. Sununu looks to be heading towards a brutal defeat this fall in his own re-election bid, so I don't see why he wouldn't accept if McCain offered him the position.