Dark of the Moon The 'Transformers 3' Box Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

So TF2 sold much less dvds than TF1.

That doesn't bode well for the TF3.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

I don't even know why I'm here. I don't really care how much money a movie makes. t:

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yes you do.

You know you want to use ever increasing box office figures to defend Bay's movies.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

I don't defend Bay's movies. I just happen to like some of them. I never followed who directed what until I came here. I didn't even know that Bay directed Bad Boys and The Rock at the time I saw them. I never used to care. I still don't that much. I don't see movies based on who the director is.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

So TF2 sold much less dvds than TF1.

That doesn't bode well for the TF3.

I sort of disagree,it only sold 7 million dvd copies less compared to Transformers 1. 11 is pretty close 18,it could have been much worse.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

A 40% drop in dvd sales is still a bad sign.

 

[chaseter]

The first movie had good word of mouth...the second one not so much.

 

[Jake Cassidy]

What about blu-ray?

 

[S.A.A.D.]

I would also like to point out that some people give things a second chance,so there will be some who will give TF 3 a second chance,even if they like the trailer for it but were iffy about the movie.

 

[<(o_o)>]

500,000,000,000t:

 

[Jake Cassidy]

^ Yeah. t:

**** you James Cameron!!!

 

[chaseter]

They are using James' 3D cameras so no **** James Cameron.

 

[Weadazoid]

I don't know the last one had to leave a bad taste.... it just kinda gave me a headache...

I am guessing it scales back to 250 domestic

 

[chaseter]

It left a bad taste...look at this ghost town of a forum for example. This place was bustling this time 2 years ago. The critics and fans both panned Revenge of the Fallen. It was mediocre at best.

 

[Weadazoid]

Much like PotC and the Matrix 3rd movies this one just may fall on the sword left by the ill fated 2nd movie.

 

[chaseter]

Well POTC3 and Matrix 3 were mediocre as well. I hope this film can at least match or top the first film.

 

[matrix_ghost]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take!

Should've replied earlier.
Even with the last Potter movie , i still think that TF will perform well. SPiderman 3 and X3 are always used as examples of movies where the BO sales aren't spectacular due to the reception they got. Spiderman 3 managed to hit 338 million domestc and X3 234 million ( i think).
But the 400 million gross of ROTF is amazing. I have my problems with ROTF but i doubt the movie really is that badly received as people make it out to be.

As for WOlverine , that really was a combination of things that ultimately led to it's failure
1) of course X3 and following months of more and more info being known of what Rothman really was up to
2) Wolverine didn't have the best marketing nor was it's trailers jawdropping like ROTF. The moment we saw the giant unicycle decepticon destroying everything and Optimus clinging on it , people were like "YEAH ! I need to see this". Wolverine at its best was just meh
3) Don't forget that the movie was leaked online and that really spread the word on just how much it sucked.

If the movie is good , i think that people will come.
Look at the SW prequels. The 3rd movie is the best of prequels and while it may not have made more then the first , it definately made more then the 2nd.

 

[chaseter]

SM3 and X3 did good because SM2 and X2 were great movies. When you have a great previous movie and a great marketing campaign for the sequel, then the sequel is going to rack in huge numbers despite the quality.

When a sequel is coming off a mediocre/hideous previous movie, no matter what the marketing is, the movie isn't going to do as well because people are more cautious.

I don't see this passing 300 million and I see Potter passing 300 million so I think that is where we will part ways. But yes, 400 million for ROTF was amazing but the majority of fans and critics panned it and I lay much of that box office success on as my first paragraph described, a highly liked first movie and great marketing.

 

[Weadazoid]

SM3 and X3 did good because SM2 and X2 were great movies. When you have a great previous movie and a great marketing campaign for the sequel, then the sequel is going to rack in huge numbers despite the quality.

When a sequel is coming off a mediocre/hideous previous movie, no matter what the marketing is, the movie isn't going to do as well because people are more cautious.

I don't see this passing 300 million and I see Potter passing 300 million so I think that is where we will part ways. But yes, 400 million for ROTF was amazing but the majority of fans and critics panned it and I lay much of that box office success on as my first paragraph described, a highly liked first movie and great marketing.

Also face it as far as eye candy goes, it did have some pretty fantastic fight sequences.

Prime taking on Black out Megatron and Star Scream in the forest still goes down as one of my favorite well done fight sequences in a movie ever.


That being said, the plot was TERRIBLE it was disjointed and the end was so....... CRAP.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

3D is not going to suddenly add 100mil on the next Transformers total. People are already getting tired of 3D, they are tired of paying more money for bad movies. Shrek 4 was in 3D and it didn't make as much as the first or second or third movie. Transformers 3 will still be a big hit but it's a 3rd movie coming off of a sequel that wasn't even well recieved by it's hardcore fans. If it doesn't fall off from the 2nd and potentionally the 1st I will be shocked.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Franchises known for eye candy get a 3-D boost.

So it's possible TF3 will get a boost.

 

[Sentinel X]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take!

Didn't wolverine pull in an 87 million dollar opening weekend? That sounds pretty damn good to me. I don't think Wolverine suffered much from X3...it suffered from bad WOM.

I actually don't think TF3 will do significantly worse than TF2. It'll probably make anywhere from 360 -400 million. I dont expect it to make more than TF2...but who knows

 

[Marvin]

as bad as tf2 "was" it still somehow just kept on trucking in the money and that opening was in reach of dark knight...the point being people just can't resist seeing it in theaters. even the talkbackers that are dedidcated haters just have to see.

If TF2 was as good as it could have been it probably would have made about another 150 mill.

anyways I think it will make about 50mill less than the previous one even though it will be much better and due to the inflated 3D price tag it will match if not surpass the previous installment.
especially with every commercial demanding we go see the spectacle with camerons camras.

 

[chaseter]

Didn't wolverine pull in an 87 million dollar opening weekend? That sounds pretty damn good to me. I don't think Wolverine suffered much from X3...it suffered from bad WOM.

I actually don't think TF3 will do significantly worse than TF2. It'll probably make anywhere from 360 -400 million. I dont expect it to make more than TF2...but who knows

Yes and it ended up making....drum roll.....$179 million. It made $22 million more than X1 and adjusted for inflation, it made less.

Sure $87 million opening is good, but TLS made $102 and X2 made $85 million opening weekend. If X3 was a great movie, I guarantee you that Wolverine would have made more than $87 million opening weekend. Plus, a lot of people just didn't go see it because of course, WOM, and how much they hated X3. WOM didn't hurt Revenge of the Fallen and critics and fans seemed to pan it. It did good because the GA loved the first one and flocked out to see this one.

I don't think this is going to get near $400 million. We will see. This thread needs a poll!

 

[Weadazoid]

X3 was HIGHLY ANTICIPATED... and because that summer opened crappily with the Poisiedon Adventure and MI2 Everyone was all about seeing the new X men movie.


It was really...very bad... everyhting including the effects just kind of fell appart towards the end...it was rushed and it felt rushed and we should all blame fox for settling for low grade stuff like X3 and FF2.... they ruined franchises and now both are going to have to start over.