The Trump Thread!!! - Part 1

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The war did cost tons of money but it did not matter to the economy in the short term nor was it one of the causes to the recession nor did it hinder the response to the recession. one trillion dollar stimulus, TARP etc. So no, while bad policy while adding to the debt which may talk about long term impacts on the economy it didn't have anything to do with the recession.

Snowe herself felt that she did not have any real input on the negotiations and that's why she ended not supporting the ACA. She went home listened to what her constituents said brought those concerns to the table and they dismissed them so she walked. If you can't work with Snowe on something you aren't going to be able to get much done in a bipartisan fashion.

Sure, I'm not saying the Republicans hands are clean on this one, but Obama and his administration are equally responsible. I would argue that Woodward even goes further in his book and places most of the blame on the Obama Administration and I don't think anyone has done a more detailed examination of the back room dealings of the Obama Administration than Woodward did.

There are economists out there who would disagree with you and, at the very least, say that it is entirely possible it was a contributing factor. It's easy to overlook an interconnected economy and long term military drag on the country.

To get back to the main point here....I tend to define people by how they've acted in the past and not some recent speech they gave while running for president. Maybe Donald has grown tired of professional wrestling and TV shows.
 
One of the sillier things I had temporarily forgotten about was the whole Obama birth certificate thing. OK, all of you conspiracy guys and gals....bring it. :woot:
 
I've watched Presidential hopefuls stump for votes for over 20 years now. It's all the same. There was a report that Yahoo news just came out with basically pointing out that Republican Presidential Candidates tax reforms, such as what Jeb is proposing, benefit the rich. Shocker right? But guess how the 1% has done under Obama:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...-2014-despite-new-obama-taxes/article/2567217

The idea that the president (whether repub or dem) can dictate the distribution of wealth, is, as you well know, wrong. I know you're making a point here. Obama, at least, has made a point of addressing this issue and, therefore is inciting class warfare. :woot:

The president can help move and support policies.
 
You can't possibly believe this statement

There are economists out there who would disagree with you and, at the very least, say that it is entirely possible it was a contributing factor. It's easy to overlook an interconnected economy and long term military drag on the country.

You can find economists to disagree with almost any statement about the economy. The fact is that yes, I believe that statement and any statement contrary to that would be one that very few economists would support.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2008/02/economy-casualty-war

I'll go ahead and link this article to the very liberal motherjones

anyone who claims the war led to a recession: Many economists say this isn't so.

"I hate the war; I'm happy to trash it," says Dean Baker, the codirector of the progressive-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research. "There are lots of bad things you could say about it. It didn't cause the recession."


simply removing the billions of dollars a year in Iraq spending from the economy without replacing it could actually make the recession worse

When President Bush said last week that "spending in the war might help with jobs" and that "this economy is down because we built too many houses and the economy’s adjusting," even well-known Bush-basher Paul Krugman had to concede the point. In a blog post, he wrote, "Hate to say this, but he’s right."

Also more Krugman here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/an-iraq-recession/?_r=0

Basically, only thing it contributed was high oil prices.
 
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I expect Trump to shine in the debate again. Those who attack Trump are going to be taken down a peg, as their record has some holes in it, and Donald has the style and knowledge to make them look worse.
 
I expect Trump to shine in the debate again. Those who attack Trump are going to be taken down a peg, as their record has some holes in it, and Donald has the style and knowledge to make them look worse.

6543-adam-sandler-knee-slap.gif
 
Also, anyone that thinks the recession was caused by a single variable is a numpty. It had various contributing factors, one of which was undoubtedly the war. If only for the simple reason that the expenditure on the war in totality could have jump started the US economy like three times if it was spent on manufacturing and entrepreneurship related ventures.

And obviously the money wouldn't just be "removed" (where the **** does it go, space?) but there are numerous sectors where it would've had a much more benevolent effect in terms of introducing spending stimulus that it won't get when it's just being spent on defense. They could have...oh, I don't know, invested it in SME's and provided some much needed employment or something?
 
Also, anyone that thinks the recession was caused by a single variable is a numpty. It had various contributing factors, one of which was undoubtedly the war. If only for the simple reason that the expenditure on the war in totality could have jump started the US economy like three times if it was spent on manufacturing and entrepreneurship related ventures.

And obviously the money wouldn't just be "removed" (where the **** does it go, space?) but there are numerous sectors where it would've had a much more benevolent effect in terms of introducing spending stimulus that it won't get when it's just being spent on defense. They could have...oh, I don't know, invested it in SME's and provided some much needed employment or something?

This is a false argument though, that's assuming you have the political will power to spend that money on such things. While it certainly had many factors the biggest one was certainly the housing bubble bursting and Wall Street derivatives, the war wasn't really one of them. That's not just my opinion that's the majority opinion of economists.

Also, jump start the economy three times over? The Iraq War cost about 2 trillion dollars. We had a trillion dollar stimulus to try to counter money lost in the recession. Not sure, you would have gotten much more.

I'm just going to pull a quote from that Paul Krugman blog post.

the Iraq war nonetheless acts as a sort of WPA, supporting employment directly and indirectly.
 
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Also, anyone that thinks the recession was caused by a single variable is a numpty. It had various contributing factors, one of which was undoubtedly the war. If only for the simple reason that the expenditure on the war in totality could have jump started the US economy like three times if it was spent on manufacturing and entrepreneurship related ventures.

And obviously the money wouldn't just be "removed" (where the **** does it go, space?) but there are numerous sectors where it would've had a much more benevolent effect in terms of introducing spending stimulus that it won't get when it's just being spent on defense. They could have...oh, I don't know, invested it in SME's and provided some much needed employment or something?

That's the exact point I was un-gracefully trying to make. Once again DeadPrez with the truth
 
This is a false argument though, that's assuming you have the political will power to spend that money on such things. While it certainly had many factors the biggest one was certainly the housing bubble bursting and Wall Street derivatives, the war wasn't really one of them. That's not just my opinion that's the majority opinion of economists.

I'm just going to pull a quote from that Paul Krugman blog post.

Sure, and then people need to start questioning a political system that spends money based on hearsay or personal preference of people in power as opposed to according to what data suggests it should be spent on, assuming that expenditure on employment and SME's would reap a greater benefit than war - in the long run.

I concur that the housing bubble and financial services sectors had far greater effects, but it would be remiss to ignore that the war was negative. That quote is a little too convenient coming from a conventional economist that probably still believes in concepts like the invisible hand or most other theoretical economic constructs that assume a lack of intervention (and collusion) from various institutions, so I'm not going to take it at face value.

Economists at the moment are enablers of a toxic form of capitalism, and their justifications or explanations for most phenomenon refer to concepts popularized like 100-150 years ago, it's time to move on and admit how markets really function, something a lot of economists and politicians ignore out of hand because it doesn't suit their narrative that capitalism is some kind of benevolent absolute.


Also, jump start the economy three times over? The Iraq War cost about 2 trillion dollars. We had a trillion dollar stimulus to try to counter money lost in the recession. Not sure, you would have gotten much more.

The thing is though (and this is counter intuitive), 1 trillion dollars =/= 1 trillion dollars - it depends on where you spend it. Defense spending is a short term stimulus that doesn't really do anything to create new jobs or spenders in the economy. Defense contractors are all established and operate in a market with obscene barriers to entry. If 1 trillion dollars is spent on SME's though it'll generate new jobs, populating them with people who may have been economically inactive, which will create a cycle of spending on goods and services that has a more stimulating effect than just shoving hundreds of millions of dollars back into the accounts of Lockheed where they probably don't see the "real economy" that every Tom, Dick and Harry are participating in.

The plain truth is American tax dollars are going into very few bank accounts, and are being invested in a financial circle-jerk that keeps ownership and entrepreneurial agency in the hands of a very small number of people. The concentrated ownership of economic means in the USA serves to choke just how quickly growth can expand, and it means that the powers that be can dictate more easily where money goes. An 80/20 split makes much more sense for the status quo than a 10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10 split does.
 
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You can find economists to disagree with almost any statement about the economy. The fact is that yes, I believe that statement and any statement contrary to that would be one that very few economists would support.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2008/02/economy-casualty-war

I'll go ahead and link this article to the very liberal motherjones








Also more Krugman here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/29/an-iraq-recession/?_r=0

Basically, only thing it contributed was high oil prices.

Sure. Believe what you will.
 
Also, anyone that thinks the recession was caused by a single variable is a numpty. It had various contributing factors, one of which was undoubtedly the war. If only for the simple reason that the expenditure on the war in totality could have jump started the US economy like three times if it was spent on manufacturing and entrepreneurship related ventures.

And obviously the money wouldn't just be "removed" (where the **** does it go, space?) but there are numerous sectors where it would've had a much more benevolent effect in terms of introducing spending stimulus that it won't get when it's just being spent on defense. They could have...oh, I don't know, invested it in SME's and provided some much needed employment or something?

We live in an interconnected economic system. Clearly the housing bubble (and we can talk about some of the reasons that was as bad as it was) was huge. Any waste of resources hurts.
 
You can find economists to disagree with almost any statement about the economy. The fact is that yes, I believe that statement and any statement contrary to that would be one that very few economists would support.

And you should ask yourself why, economists aren't neutral harbingers of fact. They're tainted by the strangled markets that the agents they're discussing come from. Economists want this smoke and mirrors show to continue because it doesn't serve any function for them to revamp all existing economic structures.

The most powerful force affecting human beings is inertia.
 
We live in an interconnected economic system. Clearly the housing bubble (and we can talk about some of the reasons that was as bad as it was) was huge. Any waste of resources hurts.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing or refuting my comment? It sounds like you're agreeing though, my assertions are congruent with that claim, so I agree.

The keyword there is "system" though, as insulting as it might sound the average citizen doesn't have the requisite knowledge to comprehend that nothing in society operates on linear causality - pretty much everything affects pretty much everything else to however small or large a degree.
 
And you should ask yourself why, economists aren't neutral harbingers of fact. They're tainted by the strangled markets that the agents they're discussing come from. Economists want this smoke and mirrors show to continue because it doesn't serve any function for them to revamp all existing economic structures.

The most powerful force affecting human beings is inertia.

Now this I agree with. Economists either have an agenda or were taught the wrong **** at the University of Chicago. **** economists. Their entire "science" is a "phenomenon" that no one truly understands. But that's okay, we're going to act like we are smarter than the market and manipulate the **** out of it!!!

This town needs an enema.
 
Conventional economics is a single discourse, or understanding, about certain phenomena. What most people (laymen and the economists themselves) peddle it off as is some kind of absolute objective truth, which it isn't. The science behind economics assumes a few fundamental (and usually "perfect") conditions that just don't actually happen on the ground.

The way "experts" understand economics is dated and extremely skewed in favor of the few owners of capital.

Capitalism, like Communism, is nothing but a nice theory. It works like the textbooks tell you until you introduce the human element. If politicians were at all interested in the wellbeing of their citizens they wouldn't dogmatically subscribe to either socialist or capitalist doctrine like only one of them can be right. The truth of the matter is certain actions will affect an economy in certain ways, and a responsible leader would change his stance depending on what the market, and his people, need. But what the **** am I talking about, it's going to be another century before the voting public even notices this crap. Until then the absolute comedy that is global economics will continue undisturbed.
 
While these may seem unrealistic, I'd rather think this way and try to accomplish some of these things than spend my life as a corporate apologist who has made his bones supporting a corrupted system that has given us the wealth distribution and economic woes we have today.

https://berniesanders.com/time-to-ask-why-not/

https://berniesanders.com/time-to-support-real-family-values/

Welcome back Taarna. No one else on this thread has your style and panache! :wowe::woo::jd: That includes people I tend to agree with.

The rest of those who share your opinions are just sort of, well, I don't know....dull and boring; although Lex can be pretty good too. Maybe we can get the man himself to weigh in.....you aren't DT are you Taarna??? :woot:
 
I'm not sure if you're agreeing or refuting my comment? It sounds like you're agreeing though, my assertions are congruent with that claim, so I agree.

The keyword there is "system" though, as insulting as it might sound the average citizen doesn't have the requisite knowledge to comprehend that nothing in society operates on linear causality - pretty much everything affects pretty much everything else to however small or large a degree.

Agreeing.

In another life, I was a statistician and did a brief stint teaching statistical analysis and probability (as well as some sociology classes on the effects of the Media) at the University of California. If you want to talk about manipulation to make a point, I can talk to you about statistics all day. The reason I bring this up because there is a concept in statistics (this is a real thing by the way and is generally seen in multiple regression analysis) called "interaction between variables" and these interactions can lead to significant misunderstandings.

For example, IF you had a significant economic collapse and IF, by some wild chance, you had 3 or 4 significant dependent (predictive) variables and IF you used an independent ("predicted" for lack of a better word that I can think of right now) variable that made sense and IF you didn't leave anything significant out of the equation.......(okay, I think you're probably getting the point now.....this MAY not be completely reliable when it comes to determining the effects of variables in an economic collapse), the variables you selected could interact in very unexpected ways. That is to say, they might not have linear relationships with each other. Adding one variable or deleting one variable can significantly change the interactions between the other variables. This could lead you to dramatically over or understate the effects of the variables you used to predict some occurrence.

That and the fact that when people use after the fact variables that fit what has already occurred, it renders their predictive value virtually meaningless because there are a ton of things you can pull out of the air that will fit the model and some may have no value whatsoever.....think about "Every year that the Redskins win at home on the weekend before the presidential election, this or that party wins....every year they lose, the other party wins......" These are after the fact observations that likely have no effect on anything. Now statisticians (generally speaking) aren't quite THAT sloppy, but some do a pretty good job of obfuscation.

OK. Everyone can wake up now.....
 
I expect Trump to shine in the debate again. Those who attack Trump are going to be taken down a peg, as their record has some holes in it, and Donald has the style and knowledge to make them look worse.

Yeah. I agree. :o Maybe they can ask him about the great, great service he did to society by "forcing" Obama to produce his birth certificate (which may not be real :o ).

Maybe he can release his own birth certificate because I heard he might not be telling the truth about his age and I'm not sure I want someone who lies about their age being president....
 
I'm 99% sure that the 45th President of the US will be Donald John Trump. Unless Clinton improves in the poll, Sander expands his visibility and Carson cons his way in, Trump will win in a narrow margin --shade of 2000 election. The main stream media is a virtual Trump TV, and there are enough dumb people who will vote for this real life clown. lol
 
In that case America will finally be a complete and utter joke.
 
I'm 99% sure that the 45th President of the US will be Donald John Trump. Unless Clinton improves in the poll, Sander expands his visibility and Carson cons his way in, Trump will win in a narrow margin --shade of 2000 election. The main stream media is a virtual Trump TV, and there are enough dumb people who will vote for this real life clown. lol

While it doesn't appear that either of us want him to be president, if you can predict with 99% certainty over a year in advance that Trump will get the repub nomination and be elected in a razor thin, 2000 style election, I have some advice for you; quit your day job and start putting your money on your predictions because you are good. REALLY GOOD. :cwink:
 
I'm 99% sure that the 45th President of the US will be Donald John Trump. Unless Clinton improves in the poll, Sander expands his visibility and Carson cons his way in, Trump will win in a narrow margin --shade of 2000 election. The main stream media is a virtual Trump TV, and there are enough dumb people who will vote for this real life clown. lol

The only way that Trump could win this election is if the new young White/(Hispanics and Blacks) voters became disenchanted decide to sit the election out.
 
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Many people will be happy if Trump closes the hedgefund tax loophole. Something the Democrats won't do. I also expect the black vote for Trump to be (abnormally) higher than the usual Republican candidate, if he is nominated.
 
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