Who should challenge Trump in 2020? - Part 1

Yeah. He's not winning the presidency at this stage in the game, and losing a primary isn't going to look good on his building-blocks thing for the bigtime.

He should go Senate, get on some committees, try for governor of Texas down the line. Do the presidential thing in his late 50s, he's not going to have the Obama/Bubba thing where he can pull it off anytime before. Youth's not enough unless you can back it with something out of the ordinary.

I would not underestimate a Beto run. He literally just changed Texas' political map, even if he didn't win. He has everything Obama had. Now, he isn't going to run, as it sounds like he wants to spend time with his family. But once his kids are in college, I think he will consider a more national race.
 
NBC News - Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey on a presidential bid: 'We'll see'

Fresh off of a 13-point win in his re-election bid, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey isn't ruling out a presidential bid in 2020.

The Pennsylvania Democrat said he knows how to win a crucial state with a significant rural population that President Donald Trump won in 2016, which he says will be necessary to beating the president in two years.

Will he jump in the race himself?

“We'll see what happens,” he said in an exclusive interview in his office Thursday when asked twice if he plans to run for president.

Casey says that Democrats need to maintain their strength in urban and suburban districts, especially among women, but they also need to drive up the margins in rural areas, too. He argues he successfully did that in his re-election race when he won 44 percent of the vote in rural areas against Rep. Lou Barletta, a hard-line immigration critic who ran close to Trump.

“I didn’t win it but getting (above) 40 percent is a significant victory,” Casey said, adding that he won rural women by two points.

The senator, first elected to the Senate in 2006, said that he not only showed up in rural areas but campaigned on issues they care about: opioids, infrastructure, child care and especially health care.

He adds that Democrats have to figure out how to show that they can relate to and care about rural voters.

“A lot of this comes down not just to an issue list, but to show you give a damn about their lives and their future and the future of their children,” he said.

If Casey's flirtations with a bid prove serious, he'll add his name to an increasingly crowded field of Democratic senators who are currently exploring a presidential bid. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California are all weighing bids, as at least a dozen more outside of the Senate are considering running for president too.

Casey acknowledged the size of the field could complicate any potential bid.

“It’s going to be a multi-candidate field and that's probably the biggest understatement. They'll be a lot of variety in that field, so we'll have to see what happens,” he said.

Casey, however, said that to win the White House, a Democrat will have to win Pennsylvania, which Trump narrowly won by less than a point, and Michigan and/or Wisconsin. He said the paths are similar on the national stage to how he won his race in Pennsylvania: “I think it's enormously helpful to try and replicate as best you can what we're able to do here.”

2018 midterms: Pennsylvania EXIT POLLING | CNN
 
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Need a candidate against whatever Republican is the candidate in 2020 (Trump or otherwise) that can at least hold the lighter blue while winning the lighter reds, many that were previously won by Obama. 270 EVs needed to become President. 3rd party candidates had a big effect in the states where neither Trump nor Clinton won 50% of the vote within; in 2012 third parties made up 1.84% of the presidential vote, in 2016 it was 6.05%.

2012 vs. 2016:

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States where % of votes for other candidates exceeded winning margin for Obama (BO) or Romney (MR) in 2012

Florida: other 1.07%, margin 0.87% (BO); difference 0.20%

States where % of votes for other candidates exceeded winning margin for Trump (DT) or Clinton (HC) in 2016

New Mexico: other 11.70%, margin 8.22% (HC); difference 3.48%
Virginia: other 5.82%, margin 5.32% (HC); difference 0.50%
Colorado: other 8.59%, margin 4.91% (HC); difference 3.68%
Maine: other 7.30%, margin 2.96% (HC); difference 4.34%
Nevada: other 6.58%, margin 2.42% (HC); difference 4.16%
Minnesota: other 8.63%, margin 1.51% (HC); difference 7.12%
New Hampshire: other 6.71%, margin 0.37% (HC); difference 6.34%

Michigan: other 5.72%, margin 0.22% (DT); difference 5.50%
Pennsylvania: other 4.37%, margin 0.71% (DT); difference 3.66%
Wisconsin: other 6.33%, margin 0.77% (DT); difference 5.56%
Florida: other 3.99%, margin 1.19% (DT); difference 2.80%
Arizona: other 7.34%, margin 3.50% (DT); difference 3.84%
North Carolina: other 4.00%, margin 3.66% (DT); difference 0.34%
Utah: other 27.28%, margin 17.88% (DT); difference 9.40%


CNN - 2012 election results: Exit polls
CNN - 2016 election results: Exit polls

Here are the numbers of white population alone % and the % of bachelor's degree education or better among the adult population, with the backdrop of who won what state/district in 2016. Obviously, the voters that voted do not necessarily match the state's demographics, because many are below the voting age.

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http://census.gov/quickfacts/

NBC News - Ohio, Colorado may no longer be swing states
 
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Brown, Beto, or Harris. I think Beto has the best chance of winning. I dislike Gillibrand so I hope she won't run. I believe she will, but a man can dream. I like Gillum as well so it would be cool to see him on the ticket. That loss in Florida was probably the most dissapointing.
 
Brown would be cool. Harris would be a good VP pick I think. Beto...maybe... a 5 year run in the House is a little less experienced than I'd like to be honest. I think he has more road to go before he runs. I hate Gilllibrand too.. what she did to Hillary and Franken disqualifies her for 2020 for me. Not forever, but for 2020.
 
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