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Age of Extinction Transformers 4 Box Office Prediction Thread (domestic)

@BoxOffice 2m
TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION opened with an estimated $100.0M this weekend. #Transformers4 #AgeOfExtinction

This is quite litteraly the most convenient estimate ever. Even worse than what Sony did with TASM2 and 22 Jump Street. Expect the week end to fall between 96/97M once actuals hit on monday. This is absolutely ridiculous.
 
BoxOfficeMojo says the film is going to do AT LEAST 100 million if not more, so I'm not sure why you are upset at them estimating 100.
 
I'm not upset at all. The figures Paramount are providing simply don't make sense.
And BoM's estimates are based on early Friday numbers. We have more data now (including more accurate Saturday estimates) and there is no way in hell that projected sunday drop turns out accurate.
Long story short this 100M estimate has 0% chance to hold once actuals hit. It is a very convenient (and quite usual to be honest) PR stunt to ensure positive coverage of the movie's performance.
It is off by, at the very least, a couple of millions.
 
Assuming Friday and Saturday is accurate, Paramount gave Sunday a very generous hold of -18% when everything else fell around 25-30%. So actuals has a good chance of coming in under $100M.
 
Paramount just trying to have bragging rights at $100 million.

Just like when Episode II came out, the estimates made it look bigger than Spider-Man's opening weekend take. However the actuals were like $6 million less than the estimates. Spider-Man was like the first film to beat a Star Wars film in the same year and summer. It was unheard of.

Now look how far Spider-Man has fallen :( .
 
I think Friday won't be off by a lot but even the Saturday number seems frankly dubious. It's pretty hard to compare to previous installments in the franchise since this is the first Transformers film opening on a Friday though.

I wouldn't be suprised if actuals end up being a lot closer to 96M than 100M. But I can also see Paramount fudging actuals if they end up above 98M.

Just a little reminder, it happened before in the franchise:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2601&p=.htm

Revenge of the Fallen's weekend gross fell $3 million short of Paramount's Sunday estimate, which would have put the five-day opening at $198.2 million. Though shy of $200 million, it would have still ranked second among the all time five-day starts. However, Paramount revised its grosses from Wednesday and Thursday upward, and that's what pushed the total past $200 million. Wednesday went from $60.6 million to $62.0 million, and Thursday went from $28.6 million to $29.1 million. Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference.

So whenever you read that a studio needed to "Puerto Rico" a movie past a certain point it's in reference of what Paramount did with TF2's first five days gross. ;)
 
That Sunday estimate is pure ********. The film didn't hit 100mil.

I definitely remember the hilarious Puerto Rico inccedent.
 
Wishing it falls below $100M for the lolz of four big movies this summer opening between $90-100M. Throw in Cap2 to make it five.
 
What makes you think this film won't have legs exactly? I mean plenty of films hit 300 starting from 100. From pirates to the original transformers...
Please tell me it's not the reviews, they've always been this way.

Just curious where this idea of weak legs is coming from exactly. It seems to be on par if anything. Probably lower than the prior films(what wouldn't be lower than TF2) but then again that one and the one after ended 350plus.

Is it because of what the other summer films have done with a 'similar' start? Anything can happen. Unlike those other films the competition isn't as rigid these next and prior weeks. What's more it's second weekend will be the fourth of july.

Plus the film would have probably opened higher if they counted the 7pm showings like I've been told they did with the other summer film numbers. I do think the run time hurts the numbers(in terms of amount of showings). Not by much but it's worth changing imo.

For the time being I'm sticking with my near 300 under over. Similar to MOS but with a fraction of the competition. Just like the first film.
Now that marks settled, his sequel doing bigger numbers(ala TF2) is another mystery.

the only summer blockbuster that have shown some legs are x-men and meleficent
 
Weekend Report: Fourth 'Transformers' Opens to $300 Million Worldwide and an A- Cinemascore

At the domestic box office, the fourth installment in the immensely successful franchise opened to an estimated $100 million. That's the biggest opening of the year so far ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($95 million).

More importantly, it took in over $201 million from 37 international markets. That includes a stunning $90 million in China, which is the biggest "foreign" opening ever there (and probably the biggest overall, though we don't have data to confirm that).

Overall, the movie earned over $300 million worldwide this weekend. With openings throughout Europe and Latin America on the way, Transformers: Age of Extinction seems poised to make a run at $1 billion.


The movie's audience was 64 percent male and 58 percent were 25 years of age and over. They awarded it an "A-" CinemaScore, which is in contrast to its abysmal 17 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3865&p=.
 
So is the next movie title gonna be Transformers: Megatrons Return / Megatrons Revenge
 
Megatron appears in all of the films but is he ever not wasted in any of the 4 films?
 
Megatron appears in all of the films but is he ever not wasted in any of the 4 films?

The first film is the only one that kind of made him more than a total *****.
 
The first film is the only one that kind of made him more than a total *****.

I thought he was totally bad ass in that first film. If only Lockdown as is dropped into that film as is....would have been quite a thing.
 
I thought he was totally bad ass in that first film. If only Lockdown as is dropped into that film as is....would have been quite a thing.

Lockdown is definitely one of my favorite characters now.
 
This is quite litteraly the most convenient estimate ever. Even worse than what Sony did with TASM2 and 22 Jump Street. Expect the week end to fall between 96/97M once actuals hit on monday. This is absolutely ridiculous.

What are you referring to exactly with TASM2? From what I can see the estimates were only off by less than 400 thousand.
 
I am not referring to the opening week end estimate but Sony fudged the second we estimates to avoid a 60%+ drop which turned out real when they released actuals on monday.

Now when it comes to AOE, apparently Paramount is sticking to their guns here and they released actuals for the we above 100M ($100,038,390). It is an extremely dubious number nonetheless and actuals are said to be close to 98M instead by various sources (including the reliable Gitesh Pandya/BOGuru). The stakes are clear for Paramount here, they cannot have the first friday opener in the franchise grossing less for its first we than DOM which opened on a wednesday. Now if the numbers (and therefore the internal multiplier) they announced is true we should see an incredible hold, both on week days and next week end. If they fudged this number then they'll have to take 2M off week days gross meaning that they will be lower than they should be and next week end's drop should be higher than expected as well.

Anyways the thing Paramount won't be able to fudge is that this film will already have a hard time beating the first Transformers' domestic gross.
 
All this "controvesry" about Paramount fudging it to hit nine figures is hilarious.
 
Is this controversy actually based in any real evidence that Paramount is doing this or are people only saying this because it's "suspicious" that a film everyone was pegging to be the first $100mil opener of the year to hit exactly that number?
 
Paramount just adds 2 million again like they did with Revenge of the Fallen. Absolutely hilarious. As if 98mil would have been so horrible. I'm sure all studios fudge the numbers but Paramount takes it to the extreme when it comes to this series.
 
Paramount just adds 2 million again like they did with Revenge of the Fallen. Absolutely hilarious. As if 98mil would have been so horrible. I'm sure all studios fudge the numbers but Paramount takes it to the extreme when it comes to this series.

Ok, so are we responding to any actual evidence here, or just judging based on the fact that everyone has it out for Transformers? I find it more suspicious that this controversy doesn't come up more in terms of fudging the actuals if its this easy, but all of a sudden its very natural to assume that Paramount has.
 
My post wasn't a response to yours by the way.

You have obviously made up your mind that every other studio but Paramount is incorrect and that the film hit 100mil. Feel free to believe what you please but I'm not in the mood to argue about this.
 
So the actuals came in and it held? Not surprising. I thought it would land a bit higher(103-106). Guess it dipped some. Studios don't always lie. The trouble with buying into the the whole fudge-gate thing here, is that it undermines everything we are given and makes it hard to draw the line. What other numbers this year were fudged? All of them? Moreover how big a deal would this be had it been a more celebrated(on the net) film.

Anyways, it looks like this summer won't go down in history after all.

I don't think paramount should be too worried about this landing under the first film(which did pretty darn good for first film 320). I'm sure marvel studios has a special appreciation for the number(for example). It's just a matter of how much under. TDKR made something approaching 90 mill less than TDK domestically. More to the point, TF3 vs TF2. Big numbers are just that, big and easy and understandable to fall short of. I think it's going to come down to just what the WW number lands on. Another TF3 like performance WW with a respectable domestic figure for a 4th installment and Paramount will be sitting pretty.
Few films do TF3 numbers WW, if this does that, "it'll do pig".

Wahlberg is probably pretty satisfied knowing he might be one of the highest grossing actors this year(by way of film that is). Good for stock.
 
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