Age of Extinction Transformers 4 Box Office Prediction Thread (domestic)

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cap isn't counted as being part of the summer movie season. I'm not saying it should or shouldn't be but it isn't. I see no reason to discuss it really because I'm talking about the summer movie season which starts in May.

My point is not enough people are even interested in trying out these films to see if they do like them, which is why this summer has been so mediocre at the box office. Yes there have been hits but we haven't had that one 300mil breakout, hell we don't even have a film that is headed for 240mil currently.

If Transformers 4 does more than my prediction, wouldn't be the first or last time I was wrong.

 

[Marvin]

Cap isn't counted as being part of the summer movie season. I'm not saying it should or shouldn't be but it isn't. I see no reason to discuss it really because I'm talking about the summer movie season which starts in May.

My point is not enough people are even interested in trying out these films to see if they do like them, which is why this summer has been so mediocre at the box office. Yes there have been hits but we haven't had that one 300mil breakout, hell we don't even have a film that is headed for 240mil currently.

If Transformers 4 does more than my prediction, wouldn't be the first or last time I was wrong.

I only mentioned cap due to it's proximity to the summer/it being the summer marvel studio film that usually comes out around that time/it's scale and budget and it's gross(that 240 number you pointed to). More to the point, I mention it cause you are talking about the mentality of the audience as it pertains to the films this 'summer'. Unless you can describe some significant shift of mentality during the those 20 ought days separating cap from the season in question, I would imagine it's a similar mindset.

As for that mindset, I fear these films would have made as much in any summer tbh, probably less given the competition. The thing is, yes there is often a big 300mill topper at this point, like say IM3 or Avengers...but if you pay attention to how the films around those perform you'll come to the conclusion that the main difference between those years and this is..no IM3 or Avengers. ASM2 was supposed to be that but it wasn't. Point being these films are doing what normally happens imo.

That being said, this summer seems is behaving very similarly to 2011/2009. Years in which the respective TF films showed up and walked by 300 before the prior summer films did.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I like to go further than "the movies did what they did" mindset that you seem to have. I'm not saying this to be rude but I'm trying to explain to you why this conversation is pretty much a dead end for us.

We have the exact opposite mindsets when it comes to analysing box office numbers so it would be ridiculous for us to continue conversations related to box office. You know I like you and think that you are a smart guy and will talk to you about anything else but I just don't see any common ground in our thoughts on this subject. I hope you don't take great offense.

 

[The Endless]

Marvin no offense, but why do you always write walls of texts when simple, short, concise answers are all that is necessary? It's like you like to hear yourself talk. Well, see yourself talk lol.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I actually like his wall of text style. The man likes to explain his position in great detail and I appreciate that.

 

[Marvin]

Marvin no offense, but why do you always write walls of texts when simple, short, concise answers are all that is necessary? It's like you like to hear yourself talk. Well, see yourself talk lol.

Can't help it, I'm the Jeff Goldblum of these parts.

Sometimes I keep it short, sometimes not so much. However much you want to read is up to your own discretion.

note, this post could have been half a long

 

[Marvin]

I like to go further than "the movies did what they did" mindset that you seem to have. I'm not saying this to be rude but I'm trying to explain to you why this conversation is pretty much a dead end for us.

We have the exact opposite mindsets when it comes to analysing box office numbers so it would be ridiculous for us to continue conversations related to box office. You know I like you and think that you are a smart guy and will talk to you about anything else but I just don't see any common ground in our thoughts on this subject. I hope you don't take great offense.

I don't take any offense to you suggesting we aren't going to agree. Not sure why I would.

I do need to ask what you are getting at with that first part though. For example, when I said the films did what they were destined to do, I mean that very much in the sense that I didn't see Xmen making over 'what it usually makes' even at it's best. I didn't see Godzilla making over 250, I don't see GoG making over...etc. Another way of saying they all had limited potential. Whereas I see you insinuating that their numbers are indicative of some other phenomena. Something like the audience tuning out this year? See, it would take the hunger games sequel getting good reviews and then bombing for me to subscribe to that. I just didn't see that may line up as all that strong is all.

Guess we will see how it goes in a few weeks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Okay I must have not been reading that part of your post correctly. I think with the exception of Maleficent, Neighbors and maybe Godzilla most of the films are even underperforming their low expectations for various reasons I'm sure. With Dragon 2 underperforming big time, probably due to that four year gap in part.

I think each and every film had their reasons for disappointing their low expections and I certainly didn't mean to imply that there is some strange phenoma is taking place as I hate when people do that to excuse away a weak slate of films.

What I'm doing with Transformers 4 is not ignoring the signs of a potential underperformance. Along with the fact that there is no huge film driving people to the theaters, it's a 4th film and has a different cast and I think that will hurt it more than anything.

My prediction post does make it look like I think Transformers is going to underperform just because everything else did and of course that's not a good reason to predict an underperformance.

 

[Marvin]

Yea your post did seem to emphasize that last reason.

I've personally held to the idea that the film is hard to predict in that there are alot of obvious signs for it performing at either end of the spectrum. I'm mostly respecting it's potential. As for your particular observation, as much truth as there is to it, there is another side to it;
Xmen first class is a 'master class' in what you are talking about. The 'fourth' film in a series, a new cast(lesser known), a new director(lesser known), the film was all but selling the white flag and a down grade. The thing about TF4 is that it actually has the same driving force of a director(it's not Libesman for example), it still has the draw that is the bee/prime autobots, and instead of simply losing it's big lead, they have found a way to replace him with an even bigger star....It's still selling the Alist transformer thing it always has. Point being, there are two ways this can all go and I won't subscribe to either one just yet. One thing to keep in mind is that people always assume the 'next TF film is going to have worn out it's welcome' and thus far they have always been wrong. Will this be the one they get right or will it be yet another lesson in the obvious? I do think if you look at the types of films that have open with mid 90 this year, a TF film opening higher seems like a sure bet imo.

As for this summer.
For me the only real under performers this summer have been spiderman and dragon 2, but both have their reasons imo. I called Godzilla a year out, even with it's wonderful marketing, to me the film is little more than literal and slow monster wrestling in a post pacific rim world. I see alot of potential for the next xmen film, but I think alot of people lost sight of just how much this franchise struggles with numbers, again, great marketing campaign and promise of quality aside.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Those are good reasons for why Transformers might not underperform. I still don't think it's going to make as much as the 3rd in the states.

 

[def28]

What's the most common opening week prediction number from sites?

Only number I've seen is through boxoffice.com and that's $115m.

 

[Marvin]

Those are good reasons for why Transformers might not underperform. I still don't think it's going to make as much as the 3rd in the states.

I tend to agree with you.
I find it highlights how much people talk about the 3rd film taking a dip domestically, yet here we are referring to that same number as some unattainable thing. I'm thinking it'll land somewhere north of 300, unlike say MOS(290), this film at least has room for legs.

300 being the magical number given about 700 intl is probably a lock at this point.

 

[def28]

http://www.deadline.com/2014/06/transformers-late-night-estimate-8-75m-on-path-to-mid-90m-opening/

Transformers: Age Of Extinction gained strength as it rolled out today into 4,233 theaters and on around 10,000 screens. It is now estimated to have a $40M Friday on track for around a $100M weekend (could be a little under or a little over depending on Saturday). That’s much better news than how it looked earlier in the day. If those numbers hold, the Michael Bay-directed franchise, which is being led by social media powerhouse Mark Wahlberg this time around, would be welcome news for distrib Paramount and the filmmakers and would garner the biggest opening of 2014. It got an A- CinemaScore tonight, despite the bad reviews.

 

[rayc1971]

OW: 97mil
Domestic Total: 240mil
International Total: 845mil

Nothing has truly broken out domestically so my prediction has been lowered by about 60million. The critics love this year but the domestic audience don't care about these films as much. It's not like nobody saw this coming because many people thought this summer looked weak on paper.

your numbers are right on its not cracking 300mill doestic not with a 95 to 97 mill ow it need that 115 to 125 ow for 300mill domestic

 

[def28]

DOTM opened with 97m I think. Transformers has a holiday and some time to itself coming up. It could still crack it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If it did 41mil Friday like what is being reported rayc1971, it has a shot at 100+mil opening weekend.

I don't know if I buy it hitting 300mil even if it does do 100-105mil this weekend. I mean even with 4th of July I'm skeptical of it having the legs to hit that number. Maybe it will make more than my 240mil prediction but the legs are going to have to be great for it to reach 300mil. It will be fascinating to watch and see what happens.

 

[rayc1971]

If it did 41mil Friday like what is being reported rayc1971, it has a shot at 100+mil opening weekend.

I don't know if I buy it hitting 300mil even if it does do 100-105mil this weekend. I mean even with 4th of July I'm skeptical of it having the legs to hit that number. Maybe it will make more than my 240mil prediction but the legs are going to have to be great for it to reach 300mil. It will be fascinating to watch and see what happens.

we are lookin at 102mill right now this summer wont produce a 300mill domestic film looks like.coming in I thought transformers-xmen-Godzilla had a chance at 300mill domestic these films have no legs this summer.dont see gaurdians or apes doing 300mill either.we have to wait for hunger games and the hobbit it seems

 

[Marvin]

we are lookin at 102mill right now this summer wont produce a 300mill domestic film looks like.coming in I thought transformers-xmen-Godzilla had a chance at 300mill domestic these films have no legs this summer.dont see gaurdians or apes doing 300mill either.we have to wait for hunger games and the hobbit it seems

What makes you think this film won't have legs exactly? I mean plenty of films hit 300 starting from 100. From pirates to the original transformers...
Please tell me it's not the reviews, they've always been this way.

Just curious where this idea of weak legs is coming from exactly. It seems to be on par if anything. Probably lower than the prior films(what wouldn't be lower than TF2) but then again that one and the one after ended 350plus.

Is it because of what the other summer films have done with a 'similar' start? Anything can happen. Unlike those other films the competition isn't as rigid these next and prior weeks. What's more it's second weekend will be the fourth of july.

Plus the film would have probably opened higher if they counted the 7pm showings like I've been told they did with the other summer film numbers. I do think the run time hurts the numbers(in terms of amount of showings). Not by much but it's worth changing imo.

For the time being I'm sticking with my near 300 under over. Similar to MOS but with a fraction of the competition. Just like the first film.
Now that marks settled, his sequel doing bigger numbers(ala TF2) is another mystery.

 

[Liam_H]

If weekend winds up with $102 then I'll say anywhere from $250-280M.

 

[Lord]

Isn't there a thread for the worldwide box office? Domestic's frankly not all that interesting to me, it doesn't dictate overall the success of the movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Isn't there a thread for the worldwide box office? Domestic's frankly not all that interesting to me, it doesn't dictate overall the success of the movie.

For this movie worldwide is boring. Everyone knows it will fall around one billion.

Domestic is where it could drop 35-45%.

 

[Liam_H]

There is intrigue with China, where its looking to do like $250M. There is a possibility that China>US, if not very close to each other.

 

[def28]

Deadline is saying Saturday numbers are looking strong.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/06/transformers-late-night-estimate-8-75m-on-path-to-mid-90m-opening/

The momentum just keeps building. Saturday has played out well so far for this weekend’s big opener, Paramount’s Transformers: Age of Extinction and it is holding on very strongly going into evening and late night showings. The thinking now is that the Michael Bay-directed franchise could gross anywhere between $103M to $105M for the three-day which would put it right between the grosses of the last two Transformer installments’ Friday to Sunday grosses. But that would not be an apples-to-apples comparison as they both opened on Wednesdays and had two more days of play. What a great win for the filmmakers, the studio and its top-notch marketing and distribution teams opened this lengthy, 2:45-minute film.

 

[Raiden]

http://www.deadline.com/2014/06/transformers-late-night-estimate-8-75m-on-path-to-mid-90m-opening/

I think TF4's amazing opening while other summer movies have under-performed is a proof that moviegoers for whatever reason did not feel like going to the movie theatres, until TF4 came along. It could be that they just want a big, CGI-filled, explosive-laden mindless summer popcorn movie and this one is just what the doctor ordered. This movie's success shows that Transformers is completely critic-proof, and as a TF fan it's not exactly a great news since I've been hoping that we can get a TF movie that is more faithful to the animate series and comics that inspire it, but this OW insures that we'll probably be getting 2 more Bayformer movies down the line.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The film's opening isn't going to be much better than Winter Soldier if that early Saturday number pans out.