Revenge of the Fallen Transformers: ROTF Box Office Discussion

[Anita18]

Yeah I'm sure we all knew Potter would be a huge success for WB (especially overseas) but I personally did not think it could put up numbers that surpassed TDK. It may be a little more front-loaded than TDK but at this point I don't see it making any less than $220 million after 5 days, and maybe even $500 million when all is said and done. I mean who woulda thought that TF 2's Wednesday opening records wouldn't even last one month?

Er, only TWO films ever have made it past $450 million. $400 million is still a pretty exclusive club as well. Harry Potter has always been an extremely frontloaded series due to the fans rushing out at once. IIRC only the first one has crossed $300 million. This one probably will - it'd have to have the worst legs on the history of the planet to not do it after posting that midnight number. But it won't touch $400 million. TF2's ability to do it is still up in the air. I think many are watching this weekend's drops to really judge.

 

[Sentinel X]

i highly doubt HP6 is going to make 500+ million. A lot of the potter films had huge opening weekends and only one ended up making over 300 million. It has a chance at 400 million but I don't see 500 million.....DH2 will have a huge chance though

 

[Theweepeople]

I admit that transformers domestic gross is impressive but, will this film go down in history as having the highest 5 day opening for a film that fails to make 400million domestically? It could still make over 400million but, that won't be easy with Potter coming out.

 

[miggizle85]

Er, only TWO films ever have made it past $450 million. $400 million is still a pretty exclusive club as well. Harry Potter has always been an extremely frontloaded series due to the fans rushing out at once. IIRC only the first one has crossed $300 million. This one probably will - it'd have to have the worst legs on the history of the planet to not do it after posting that midnight number. But it won't touch $400 million. TF2's ability to do it is still up in the air. I think many are watching this weekend's drops to really judge.

Yeah I mentioned that in my post. That there was a chance that the midnight number might be a result of extreme front-load. Turns out that was true.

Potter had the biggest midnight viewing gross but only the 4th biggest opening day. $58 million according to early estimates. I was making those rash estimates keeping in mind that I was assuming the big number wasn't a result of front-load. Now we know different. It'll still be interesting to see how it performs though. Will it surpass TF2's 5 day? I mean It'll definately have the family factor going into the weekend. I see a bigger Sunday at least but it may be short on every other day. Will Sunday be enough to put it over TF2?

 

[Cmill216]

The Potter films were built for midnight screenings due to the rabid-ness of the fan base. I knew as soon as I saw that midnight number that the opening day total would be high, but not record breaking.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Because ther have been 6 potter movies in the cinemas , you can see a particular trend. The last few potter movies opened huge and then fell in their subsequent weekends. There is a chance of this Potter movie making more then 300 million . If it follows the same pattern of the previous potter flicks it'll probably just cross the 300 million mark. If however it can maintain the strong numbers so far ( meaning a 5 opening weekend around 200 million) chances are we're looking at 320-340 million domestic.

As for transformers , yeah i still think it has a (small)chance of hitting 400 million. It'll be a struggle though . But even if it doesn't it still has outgrossed the previous movie.
btw i was just thinking about this . Notice that ever since 2002 there has always been one movie surpassing the 400 million mark

2002 : spider-man

2004 : shrek 2

2006 : POTC 2

2008 : the dark knight

 

[miggizle85]

btw i was just thinking about this . Notice that ever since 2002 there has always been one movie surpassing the 400 million mark

2002 : spider-man
2004 : shrek 2
2006 : POTC 2
2008 : the dark knight

Aha! Look at that. You discovered another pattern as well. Ever Since 2002 every 2 years there was been a movie that surpasses the $400 million mark.

If in fact Transformers does fall short (as it's starting to look so right now, but it will be razor thin close) and if Potter 6 does follow the trend of the previous movies then it seems as if that trend will hold true once again. How bizarre is that? Wonder that means for 2010 releases. Which one will it be then?

Again though there's still a chance for TF2 and we've yet to see what HP6 can really do (we won't have a real good idea till after the 2nd weekend). And of course... *GULP*... there's... *DEEP BREATH*... Twilight Saga: New Moon.




WWWHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[kedrell]

Because ther have been 6 potter movies in the cinemas , you can see a particular trend. The last few potter movies opened huge and then fell in their subsequent weekends. There is a chance of this Potter movie making more then 300 million . If it follows the same pattern of the previous potter flicks it'll probably just cross the 300 million mark. If however it can maintain the strong numbers so far ( meaning a 5 opening weekend around 200 million) chances are we're looking at 320-340 million domestic.

As for transformers , yeah i still think it has a (small)chance of hitting 400 million. It'll be a struggle though . But even if it doesn't it still has outgrossed the previous movie.
btw i was just thinking about this . Notice that ever since 2002 there has always been one movie surpassing the 400 million mark

2002 : spider-man

2004 : shrek 2

2006 : POTC 2

2008 : the dark knight

That's but one reaason I think TF2 will come up short of 400M by 10-15M. So the 2-year 400M+ streak will continue. My money's on IM2 being the 400M grosser next year, but TS3 also has a shot.

 

[BlackLantern]

Aha! Look at that. You discovered another pattern as well. Ever Since 2002 every 2 years there was been a movie that surpasses the $400 million mark.

If in fact Transformers does fall short (as it's starting to look so right now, but it will be razor thin close) and if Potter 6 does follow the trend of the previous movies then it seems as if that trend will hold true once again. How bizarre is that? Wonder that means for 2010 releases. Which one will it be then?

Again though there's still a chance for TF2 and we've yet to see what HP6 can really do (we won't have a real good idea till after the 2nd weekend). And of course... *GULP*... there's... *DEEP BREATH*... Twilight Saga: New Moon.




WWWHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

because as Titanic proved, when the teenage girl fanbase gets behind you, you're going to make ludicrous amounts of money

 

[dark_b]

titanic didnt have only horny teenage girls. it had old horny women. thats how you make over 500 millions

he he he

 

[kedrell]

because as Titanic proved, when the teenage girl fanbase gets behind you, you're going to make ludicrous amounts of money

Too true, you gotta get them to divert all that Hannah Montana money.

 

[BlackLantern]

titanic didnt have only horny teenage girls. it had old horny women. thats how you make over 500 millions

he he he

Women are a strong and loyal audience

Too true, you gotta get them to divert all that Hannah Montana money.

there was no Hannah Montana when Titanic was around

 

[kedrell]

there was no Hannah Montana when Titanic was around

It was Hello Kitty money then.

 

[miggizle85]

It was Hello Kitty money then.

So true. So true.

Really though it makes perfect sense. Women spend money like crazy. Matter of fact not only that but they love to spend. So if your a studio why not make a movie that appeals to the senses of all women (old, middle-aged, and young) and see what happens.

As sad as it was to see Twilight make so much money, I think we're in store for far worse when the next two come out. The original one's DVD is selling like crazy (outselling the likes of "Iron Man") and we can't really blame that on repeat viewings can we? No, there is a massive audience for this thing now and it's getting bigger. Women and tweens alike have me laying bricks man I tell you.

But I thought the world was supposed to end in 2012?

 

[DarkKnight88]

because as Titanic proved, when the teenage girl fanbase gets behind you, you're going to make ludicrous amounts of money

Titanic proved when you get EVERYONE behind you, you're going to make ludicrous amounts of money. Teenage girls, teenage boys, men, women, the elderly.. it appealed to EVERYONE.

If it was just teenage girls Twilight would've hit 2 billion by now.

 

[BlackLantern]

I went to see Titanic....it got me laid...so I owe James Cameron

 

[Anita18]

Aha! Look at that. You discovered another pattern as well. Ever Since 2002 every 2 years there was been a movie that surpasses the $400 million mark.

If in fact Transformers does fall short (as it's starting to look so right now, but it will be razor thin close) and if Potter 6 does follow the trend of the previous movies then it seems as if that trend will hold true once again. How bizarre is that? Wonder that means for 2010 releases. Which one will it be then?

Again though there's still a chance for TF2 and we've yet to see what HP6 can really do (we won't have a real good idea till after the 2nd weekend). And of course... *GULP*... there's... *DEEP BREATH*... Twilight Saga: New Moon.




WWWHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For some reason the folks over at the box office forums think James Cameron's Avatar will be the next Titanic. Because it's apparently visually awesome and it's directed by the guy who did direct Titanic. Even though it's his first feature film SINCE Titanic, 10 years ago.

But I guess we'll see.

So true. So true.

Really though it makes perfect sense. Women spend money like crazy. Matter of fact not only that but they love to spend. So if your a studio why not make a movie that appeals to the senses of all women (old, middle-aged, and young) and see what happens.

As sad as it was to see Twilight make so much money, I think we're in store for far worse when the next two come out. The original one's DVD is selling like crazy (outselling the likes of "Iron Man") and we can't really blame that on repeat viewings can we? No, there is a massive audience for this thing now and it's getting bigger. Women and tweens alike have me laying bricks man I tell you.

But I thought the world was supposed to end in 2012?

But the question is, if women are box office powerhouses, why aren't there more films catering to them? Typically chick flicks are lucky if they make $100-$150 million.

 

[BlackLantern]

But the question is, if women are box office powerhouses, why aren't there more films catering to them? Typically chick flicks are lucky if they make $100-$150 million.

Because a good number of girlie movies scare off the male audience

 

[Anita18]

Because a good number of girlie movies scare off the male audience

But from posts here, you'd think that female moviegoers are the only reason Titanic and Twilight are successful. miggizle85 suggests that women LOVE to spend money, so all of the movies that cater to them should show repeat viewings, or that every female will have seen them, etc etc.

I'm just pointing out that's not the case.

 

[BlackLantern]

there are some girlie movies that I enjoy....Fever Pitch, Rumor Has It, Head Over Heels (don't judge me, I think the models are hilarious), I. Q.

 

[terry78]

The girl controls the money. She wants to go see Springtime in Italy, your ass is going too. And if you say no, she'll go with her girls, so then that's about 3 times the box office amount.

 

[kedrell]

Females typically don't spend the same amount on visual media that guys do. Guys are more visually oriented than women and movies are a visual medium. So guys tend to dominate that marketplace. Women spend their money on other things(clothes, jewelry, cosmetics, etc.) which is why they dominate those areas. However, if you can get a film that is able to appeal to females to the extent that many of these movies appeal to men, well then you have just opened up a vast reservoir of cash that was not originally going to be spent on movies.

 

[kedrell]

So true. So true.

Really though it makes perfect sense. Women spend money like crazy. Matter of fact not only that but they love to spend. So if your a studio why not make a movie that appeals to the senses of all women (old, middle-aged, and young) and see what happens.

As sad as it was to see Twilight make so much money, I think we're in store for far worse when the next two come out. The original one's DVD is selling like crazy (outselling the likes of "Iron Man") and we can't really blame that on repeat viewings can we? No, there is a massive audience for this thing now and it's getting bigger. Women and tweens alike have me laying bricks man I tell you.

But I thought the world was supposed to end in 2012?

Actually Iron Man sold more, but they are close. They weren't anywhere near close in theaters.

IM (DVD)= $160,759,147
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/IRNMN-DVD.php

Twighlight (DVD)= $156,195,497
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/TWLIT-DVD.php

Even though IM made 200M more WW.http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/IRNMN-DVD.php

 

[kedrell]

This brings up an interesting phenominon as I peruse the theatrical totals vis-a-vis how they did on DVD. Nobody expects TF2 to come anywhere near close to TDK's gross in theaters and the original TF movie did even less in theaters. However TF absolutely blasted TDK on DVD. Not even close.

Maybe using DVD sales as a barometer of how movies are received or worse, how their sequels will do is a bad idea. Otherwise TF2 would be beating Titanic theatrically.

 

[miggizle85]

Actually Iron Man sold more, but they are close. They weren't anywhere near close in theaters.

IM (DVD)= $160,759,147
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/IRNMN-DVD.php

Twighlight (DVD)= $156,195,497
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/TWLIT-DVD.php

Even though IM made 200M more WW.

I wasn't aware that IronMan had sold 8.9 million units. I was going by the number on this chart: http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2008.php

According to that, IronMan had sold 8.4 by then of 2008 and I figured another 200,000 in 2009 was a safe bet.

It's nice to see that so far IM has outsold Twilight. Although Twilight is still selling 50,000 a week and dropping slow so it's only going to get closer and unfortunately may pass it in about 3 months.