Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[EnDz0n3]

Memorial Day Weekend 2013, two "franchise" movies went head-to-head.

Fast & Furious 6 made $97Mil for those 3 days.
(That's up from $86Mil in 2011.)

The Hangover Part III made $41Mil.
(That's a significant drop from Part II which opened to $85Mil two years prior. Also because Part II sucked and "Part I" was one of those "one and done" movies. This didn't need to be made into a franchise. The Wolf Pack anyone? Seriously?)

Apocalypse needs to have a bigger opening weekend than DOFP's $90.8Mil if it wants to have a larger Domestic gross than that movie. Having another "tent pole" movie to go head to head with that same opening weekend puts a damper on that.

Unfortunately, X-men movie's are notorious for having terrible legs at the box office.

All common knowledge at this point.

With Apocalypse and Alice 2 having come out with posters and trailer advertising the Memorial Day Weekend release dates, either these two studios are playing the biggest game of chicken at the box office or neither studio is really worried about the other.

 

[Lady C]

My intuition is telling me that Apocalypse won't do as good as DOFP.

 

[Avalanche]

My intuition is telling me that Apocalypse won't do as good as DOFP.

I feel like it's a given at this point. I'm sure it will do decent, but the question is whether it will do decent enough to warrant a sequel. The competition surrounding it is just too fierce, so its chances of opening big and having legs seem next to none.

 

[FeedOnATreeFrog]

I definitely think it won't do as well.

DOFP had that Avengers team-up factor going on with the old and new cast meeting.

Apocalypse will be to DOFP like Thor 2 or Cap 2 are to Avengers.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I definitely think it won't do as well.

DOFP had that Avengers team-up factor going on with the old and new cast meeting.

Apocalypse will be to DOFP like Thor 2 or Cap 2 are to Avengers.

To be fair even Avengers: age of ultron didn't make as much as the first avengers so it would appear that either the novelty of the team up factor is only really fresh the first time or that age of ultron wasn't as good as the first so many didn't go back for repeated viewings

I think to base the success of DOFP on just the 2 casts meeting would hinder any further success

 

[GuestStar2004]

Personally i think the competition could hurt this movie or the lack of jackman since many still seem to hold him as the key player

 

[Docker2.0]

My intuition is telling me that Apocalypse won't do as good as DOFP.

Same here. They are not bringing nothing new to the table at all. NOTHING! And to throw Apocalypse in it with no build up is crazy. It looks good but I wouldn't be surprised if this thing did $175M DOM and around $550M WW.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Same here. They are not bringing nothing new to the table at all. NOTHING!

This will be much more of a mass destruction movie then what X-Men has ever done before so i'd assume that element will be new and different

 

[X-Maniac]

With Apocalypse and Alice 2 having come out with posters and trailer advertising the Memorial Day Weekend release dates, either these two studios are playing the biggest game of chicken at the box office or neither studio is really worried about the other.

If Apocalypse moves, it is basically giving away the entire weekend to Alice 2 so I don't see that happening.

We will probably get a similar situation to DoFP v Maleficent where both movies cannibalise each other to some extent and see their potential box office split. Mums and girls will opt more for Alice 2, dads and boys more for Apocalypse - I saw this happening with DoFP and Maleficent.

 

[Docker2.0]

I never saw the appeal with Alice 2 nor any of Tim Burton's movies. You seem to have to be on some kind of acid to get the feel of them, especially part 2. But some people like that kind of thing. The thing about Xmen is that by the time it comes out, you will have Deadpool, BvS, and CW out and they all bring something different or new.

 

[X-Maniac]

Same here. They are not bringing nothing new to the table at all. NOTHING!

I don't agree. This film has: The first ever mutant; Ancient Egypt; the formation of the X-Men; world destruction. The teaser didn't really sell those points well enough, in my view (because it was just a collection of snapshot scenes) but there are other trailers to come yet. I hope the film itself sells those points well too.

I think the existing movies have built much of their popularity/familiarity on the great cast, so the (apparent) absence of any original cast members could have an effect. It's probably why they are using J'Law/Raven so prominently, although we know Jackman is in the movie somewhere as well.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Er, no, but it did markedly increase the box office from the actual previous X-Men film, which would be the more relevant comparison.

Domesticly DOFP made 1 million less than last stand.Whatmore DOFP is more sequel to first class than X-Men trilogy and here box office went from 146
million for fc to 233 million for DOFP.I know the x-men hater you quoted
likes to call X-Men films failure in attempts to launch studio wars whenever
he can but these are the facts.

besides hugh jackman the OT cast was extended cameos.and even jackman was really supporting to Mcavoy and fassbender.

 

[Zarex]

At some point you are going to realize that the only one injecting "failure", "hater" and "studio wars" into respectful, well reasoned conversations is you. But given the incomprehensibility of your posts its going to take you an awfully long time to figure that out.

 

[Zarex]

Guardians Of The Galaxy opened a week before TMNT. Both did great and were not hurt by each other.

Legs could come into play. While GOTG was able to recover from TMNTs strong opening week, it may be a challenge for the next installment of the notoriously short legged X-Men franchise to do the same.

The TMNT sequel looks goofy as well, but it is looking like it is closer to what the fans want than the first effort. If Apocalypse takes a strong hit in the second week, can the film recover? We shall see.

 

[Docker2.0]

I don't agree. This film has: The first ever mutant; Ancient Egypt; the formation of the X-Men; world destruction. The teaser didn't really sell those points well enough, in my view (because it was just a collection of snapshot scenes) but there are other trailers to come yet. I hope the film itself sells those points well too.

I think the existing movies have built much of their popularity/familiarity on the great cast, so the (apparent) absence of any original cast members could have an effect. It's probably why they are using J'Law/Raven so prominently, although we know Jackman is in the movie somewhere as well.

Yeah but they didn't even build him up at all. They just threw him into a movie as a one and done villain with the 4 Horsemen. I just think it could have been handled better. Start with Sinister first with signs of Apocalypse pulling his strings.

 

[TeeKay]

This will be much more of a mass destruction movie then what X-Men has ever done before so i'd assume that element will be new and different

Yeah but then we've had films like like MoS, The Avengers (both), then BvS in March where we've seen cities being leveled. Nothing new here.

 

[marvelrobbins]

If Apocalypse moves, it is basically giving away the entire weekend to Alice 2 so I don't see that happening.

We will probably get a similar situation to DoFP v Maleficent where both movies cannibalise each other to some extent and see their potential box office split. Mums and girls will opt more for Alice 2, dads and boys more for Apocalypse - I saw this happening with DoFP and Maleficent.

Apocalypse isn't moving.this will be fox's last chance to have an X-Men In
may.

I have maintained my feeling that Apocalypse domesticly will do less than DOFP.the trailer makes me think it could do 220 million domesticly.

I think lack of original cast will hurt.yeah hugh jackman may have small role
but that will probally be keep secret untill film screens for critics or premieres.

I feel like jennifer lawrence's box office appeal is overated.I feel best thing apocalypse has going for it is people liked DOFP and more action.not lawrence.just like Jackman's x-men appeal doesn't translate to non-X-Men films i don't see lawrence's hungar games appeal translating to other films.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I think lack of original cast will hurt.yeah hugh jackman may have small role
but that will probally be keep secret untill film screens for critics or premieres.

I feel like jennifer lawrence's box office appeal is overated.I feel best thing apocalypse has going for it is people liked DOFP and more action.not lawrence.just like Jackman's x-men appeal doesn't translate to non-X-Men films i don't see lawrence's hungar games appeal translating to other films.

This film has alot more going for it then you give it credit for, its only you who seems to be holding on to this idea that lawrence is the only thing FOX has going for this movie

 

[CaptainCanada]

They are not bringing nothing new to the table at all. NOTHING!

Bigger action, new versions of the classic X-Men; I'm not sure what else they could be doing that's "new" at this point.

And to throw Apocalypse in it with no build up is crazy.

I really hope we haven't gotten to the point where people think you need to have a guy floating in the background for ten movies before he finally does something.

 

[X-Maniac]

Yeah but they didn't even build him up at all. They just threw him into a movie as a one and done villain with the 4 Horsemen. I just think it could have been handled better. Start with Sinister first with signs of Apocalypse pulling his strings.

Maybe it could have been handled a bit better (though this franchise has never really seen beyond one movie at a time, and we haven't yet seen the finished film to pass final judgement). However, we did have an Apoc teaser scene in Ancient Egypt at the end of DoFP, so the character hasn't come totally out of the blue.

We never get much teasing, waiting or building up in these blockbuster movies, they go straight for the main event. Ultron came and went in one movie. After one Captain America origin film with Red Skull, we went straight to Bucky/Winter Soldier and now to Civil War. Thor is already tackling the Ragnarok storyline. In Nolan's Batmovies, Joker came and went in one movie. The new Superman films have had one solo movie featuring Zod, and are already bringing in Batman and Wonder Woman.

There's still potential for Sinister in the next X-Men film. I liked the animated series scenario where he existed alongside Darwin, if they decided to incorporate more historical stuff into the franchise.

 

[iacobusleo]

Yeah with blockbuster movies, going straight for the main event is the best bet because there are so many unknown variables and risks that go into the production of a movie. Directors can drop out, or the movie will not perform well at the box office so a sequel is not greenlit, etc

I mean this has occurred in the X franchise itself. Singer was playing the long game in X1 and X2 in order to build up the Phoenix, and we all know how that ended up.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah with blockbuster movies, going straight for the main event is the best bet because there are so many unknown variables and risks that go into the production of a movie. Directors can drop out, or the movie will not perform well at the box office so a sequel is not greenlit, etc

I mean this has occurred in the X franchise itself. Singer was playing the long game in X1 and X2 in order to build up the Phoenix, and we all know how that ended up.

Yeah, paid off big time for X3's box office. Just because X3 squandered the good will, doesn't mean the approach they were taking it was bad.

That said, "building up a threat" is hogwash. You can't have 2 movies be all build up. You need something as the threat.

 

[GuestStar2004]

FOX also made Origins with the intention of other X-Men Origin movies and spinning off other characters from those movies like gambit but then for whatever reason they abandoned those plans and now the title X-Men Origins just feels out of place and the film itself forgotten

 

[Frankeh]

Well, to be fair, after The Avengers you could argue any team comic-book movie isn't bringing anything new to the table... that's why some said the sequel lacked the novelty. But if you look at this strictly as an X-Men movie, then I think there certainly is new stuff (for the franchise especially). I mean that's why people think Dawn of Justice will offer something new, right? Because they're thinking of it strictly as a DC universe movie.

 

[iacobusleo]

Yeah, paid off big time for X3's box office. Just because X3 squandered the good will, doesn't mean the approach they were taking it was bad.

That said, "building up a threat" is hogwash. You can't have 2 movies be all build up. You need something as the threat.

Oh I agree with you. I think building up is a good strategy for box office (quality is a whole separate issue), but it definitely should be in the backburner and not intrusive. Plus, it needs the guidance of a production team committed to the slow burning arc. But otherwise in case of emergencies, each movie should be a story onto itself.