The X-franchise has lost a bit of momentum with these non-core films but the main thing we need to wrory about is a return to quality. If we get back to basics & a good film is made, then X4 will happen eventually & more chance of it being taken seriously.
yah.....but the longer they wait to make X4....the likelier the chances that the public will have "moved on" from the X-men franchise....at least the franchise that started with X1.
X3 came out in 2006....so it's almost been 4 years since it came out.....and that's longer than the 3 year gaps between X1 and X2 and X2 and X3.
This is especially true if they plan on doing First Class. If they do First Class first, then do X4.....we're looking at prob a good 6-8 years since X3 came out. Would the public still be interested in a sequel to X3 after such a long hiatus from the "main series?" Especially as X3, while it did make money, was not as critically well-received as X1 and X2.
Also, the chance of X4 happening would prob depend on the success of First Class. If they make First Class, and it only does OK ( like Wolverine ), Fox may take that as a sign that the public is losing interest in the X-franchise. Or, maybe, they are losing interest in all the prequels and spin-off. Fox then has to decide if it's worth it to revisit the main franchise by doing X4.
Likewise.......what if First Class turns out to be a great hit and can spawn its own franchise? Does Fox still want to do X4? Having multiple franchises of the SAME characters going on concurrently might confuse the public or simply cause them to lose interest due to overexposure.
IOW.......the longer Fox waits to make X4....the less likely we are to see X4, imo.
And focusing on prequels like First Class will only push X4 further out into the future....thus decreasing our chances of seeing it.....