2008 Box Office Predictions & Discussions thread

[bingy13]

I don't know... I think this will be the summer of successful superhero movies. I think The Incredible Hulk will have a decent opening (60 million) and strong legs. The Dark Knight will definitely be huge, but who knows if it will do as well as Iron Man because that is doing phenomenally well...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

60million wouldn't be a decent opening, it would be a freakin phenomenal opening considering that nobody outside of message board folk liked the first movie.

 

[bingy13]

I guess that's true... Maybe a 45 million opening? If Fantastic Four: ROTSS can get $58 million after the horrible first film, then Incredible Hulk should be able to

 

[Nightmare]

Iron Man is huge, its just raking in the money. 31 million for a 3rd week? Jeez

 

[superion]

So Indiana Jones made a little over $25 million on its opening day. Considering that it was a Thursday opening and not a Friday opening would that be considered good or bad?

 

[Erzengel]

Decent?

Top Thursdays

1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $50 Million
2. Matrix Reloaded - $37 Million
3. Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - $30 Million
4. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $25 Million

 

[superion]

Decent?

Top Thursdays

1. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $50 Million
2. Matrix Reloaded - $37 Million
3. Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - $30 Million
4. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $25 Million

Star Wars Episode II only made $310 million and Matrix Reloaded failed to hit $300 million at all. It looks like Indiana Jones won't be able to get $300 either but we'll see after the weekend.

I predicted it would not be able to make it to $300 million but than I thought Narnia would and it had a sub par opening as well. It looks like this summer could go by without a $300 million movie.

 

[SLYspyder]

60million wouldn't be a decent opening, it would be a freakin phenomenal opening considering that nobody outside of message board folk liked the first movie.

Phenomenal? Yeah, right. No one liked the first movie, yes, but a lot of people still have faith in the character. They've learnt from their mistakes, and that being said, TIH won't have bad gains during the first weekend. I think it actually went down from the $24M it had on Friday to lower numbers on Sat and Sun.

I'm thinking it's definitely making more than the first one's opening weekend. I'm betting near $80M. Definitely in the $70M range.


And poor Narnia, their numbers are horrible. It's making about the same amount of IM now, and IM came out 2 weeks before.

 

[TLH]

I predict a peak for Narnia at about $150 million. It might barely eclipse that, but when all is said and done it will be the Batman Returns of that franchise. It should've made as much, if not more, than the first but is going to disappoint.

Iron Man continues to surprise.

Indy is doing quite well. $56 million over the first two days is great, and I expect it to have nearly triple that number once Monday is over. I suspect it will end with about $133 million after its first five days.

 

[Nightmare]

Star Wars Episode II only made $310 million and Matrix Reloaded failed to hit $300 million at all. It looks like Indiana Jones won't be able to get $300 either but we'll see after the weekend.

I predicted it would not be able to make it to $300 million but than I thought Narnia would and it had a sub par opening as well. It looks like this summer could go by without a $300 million movie.

The Dark Knight!!!

 

[TLH]

The Dark Knight!!!

Maybe.

 

[superion]

People have way to much faith in the Dark Knight. It is very doubtful that the sequel is going to increase its box office by 50% especially given this is the 6th Batman film and second time the joker will be on screen.

 

[Cinemaman]

^^^

Umm, actually BB is still one of the most popular superhero films, and as TDK is going to be ten times greater than it, I have no doubts it will make at least $80m opening.

 

[Go God Go!]

TDK - 1 Billion Dollars

Opening weekend, of course.

 

[DieSmiling]

If Iron Man and Indy don't hit $300 million, I don't think The Dark Knight will either.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

As per Box Office Mojo...

1. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $101 million - $126 million since Thursday
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $23 million
3. Iron Man - $20 million
4. What Happens in Vegas - $9 million
5. Speed Racer - $4 million

Damn, Prince Caspian is now 2 weeks out and still hasn't cracked $100 million. Ouch!

 

[terry78]

I don't like talking like those pundits on tv, but gas prices may sway some from hitting the movies repeatedly, unless they live pretty close or just walk it.

 

[Darthkush]

Why is everyone so shocked that Narnia isn't making more? I'm not. It's almost like people assumed that because the first one made so much(which was partially because it had little competition and it was out in the December holiday period) that the second(in an MUCH more crowded marketplace with MUCH more anticipated/hyped flicks coming out) would make MORE or as much. It wasn't like the first one was universally loved or an phenom ala Harry Potter. I always thought 200 million at the absolute most and it won't even hit that. It's not an out and out bomb like Speed Racer was but I don't think Disney is gonna be in an rush to put out an third one now.

I think Meet Dave will also bomb(looks HORRIBLE IN EVERY WAY) and I wouldn't be shocked if The Love Guru doesn't do too well either. Myers wants a new Austin Powers but...this isn't it.

Hellboy II looks good but it's release date is HORRIBLE. They sandwhiched it inbetween Hancock(which there are actually people out there that think this is an REAL comic book character! Can you guys believe that *****? wow.) and Dark Knight. Both of which are probably 200 million locks. I think Hellboy would've done better this past April or even mid August(I think it might be able to take Tropic Thunder with proper marketing) but right now, it'll only do SLIGHTLY above the first one. I"m thinking if it's lucky, it can limp to 70 milliion which isn't bad but in order to get an third and justify this one's existance, all involved will probably want 100 million.

 

[Hunter Rider]

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/movienews.php?id=45431

Indiana Jones and the Massive Opening
Source: Box Office Mojo
May 27, 2008

The ComingSoon.net Box Office Report has been updated with studio estimates for the weekend. Be sure to check back on Tuesday for final figures based on actual box office.

Paramount and Lucasfilm's Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull has earned a massive $311.1 million at the worldwide box office in just five days! The return of the man with the hat pulled in an estimated $126 million domestically over the four-day holiday weekend, marking the second-best Memorial Day weekend bow, trailing only last year's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($139.8 million). For the five days, "Crystal Skull" is up to $151.1 million domestically. That's the fifth-biggest five-day start ever and is close to Spider-Man 2's $152.4 million. Overseas, the film grossed $160 million through Monday, of which the weekend take through Sunday ($146 million) is the fifth-best international opening of all time. Executive produced by George Lucas, directed by Steven Spielberg, and starring Harrison Ford, the anticipated film was made for about $185 million.

In second place, Disney/Walden's The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian added $28.6 million over the four-day weekend, pushing its two-week total to $96.7 million. Internationally, the sequel has earned $49 million so far, bringing its worldwide total to $145.7 million. The follow-up was reportedly made for around $200 million.

Marvel Studios' Iron Man (Paramount) was still going strong in third, collecting another $25.7 million for the four days to bring its domestic total to $257.8 million. Overseas, the Robert Downey, Jr. starrer has reached $228 million and worldwide the comic book adaptation now stands at $485.8 million after four weeks. The Jon Favreau-directed film was budgeted at $140 million.

Fox's What Happens in Vegas, starring Cameron Diaz and Ashton Kutcher, performed well in its third weekend making another $11.2 million during the four days. The $35 million comedy has earned $56.4 million.

Warner Bros.' Speed Racer rounded out the top five with $5.2 million. Made for about $120 million, the Wachowski Brothers adaptation is at $37.4 million after three weeks.

If estimates hold, Universal's Baby Mama again barely topped Sony's Made of Honor. The former remained in sixth place with $4.2 million for a total of $53 million, while the later collected $4.2 million for a total of $39.9 million.

Click here for the full box office estimates of the top 12 films.

 

[Excel]

Though Indys dailies went very differently than expected, its total is roughly right where it was expected to be.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's too bad the movie was only mediocre to me. Not a surprise though because I had dirt low expectations going in. Still congrats to Spielberg and crew for getting more mansion money.

 

[FIREPHOENIX]

Go INDY Go


Fantastic movie. Saw it twice already.

I predict INDY will be in the top 3 at the end of the year


1. Iron Man
2. Indy
3. Hancock


wild spot- Wall-E

 

[Erzengel]

Though Indys dailies went very differently than expected, its total is roughly right where it was expected to be.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

As solid as I think Sex & the City will do (I'll say...$44 million opening), Indy IV will be #1 again because it has the "family movie" factor in its favor. Not everyone can see SATC, and its audience is primarily female.

As someone else said, "Mom will see Sex & the City and Dad will take the kids to see Indiana Jones!"

 

[Excel]

STAC will open over 50 million; mark my words