2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[DACrowe]

George Clooney isn't loved by the public like the media thinks he is. Can't "charm" em like he did during the ER salad days. Jeff Katz said it best: he's the most overrated box-office draw this side of Nicole Kidman.

If he was making the same glib, Hollywood ******* remarks he does while headlining a big studio blockbuster, no way he'd last long. Alienated too many people and that's why he does low-budget fare. Doesn't cost much and when it returns $30-$40 million, it's not a loss. There isn't a jump to see his latest unless the reviews are that good. Just compare the box-office of Idles of March to The Descendants last year.

Closest thing to Cary Grant is Will Smith. A movie star whose very imagine consensus on and offscreen and will change whatever movie he's starring in to accommodate to his persona. That's why Django Unchained didn't happen. Tarantino wouldn't let Smith and his writers anywhere near the script.

Will Smith has a lot of popularity and is a major movie star. But I compare him more to the likes of a John Wayne (though not as iconic) in that he has broad appeal and people see his movies simply because he's in them. Clooney has the charm, charisma and suave alpha-male attitude that Cary Grant had. And like Grant, he's been able to do it for decades.

I agree he is no longer a blockbuster name, but only because he chose to. He's been incredibly political his whole career, but that didn't stop The Perfect Storm, The Ocean's trilogy and Out of Sight from being hits. It's just he doesn't like those kind of movies and only did them to get enough clout that he can make movies he's interested in. His name is why films like Syriana, Michael Clayton, Up in the Air, Goodnight and Good Luck, etc. get made. You could even argue that it's how the Coens got O Brother Where Art Thou? made.

If his popularity has waned over the past 5 years, it's because he hasn't done a blockbuster or a film aiming to appeal to all four quadrants in half a decade. And the fact that he is the only movie star who I can think of who can get away with no longer having to appear in studio tentpoles and still gets greenlit whatever he wants is a testament to his appeal.

But in terms of basic box office receipts, yes Will Smith is bigger. But he is the reverse and with a few exceptions does only market-friendly blockbusters. It's why I think Clooney's legacy will hold up longer, because most of Smith's films are completely disposable after initial viewing.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

George Clooney is not a movie star. Movie stars guarantee big openings and big returns. He can't do that to save his life and has all but given up trying. There was a point where he could like with The Perfect Storm and Ocean's 11 (Out of Sight flopped back in the summer of '98) which is why I made the Nicole Kidman comparison, i.e. a brief period where he was red hot.

The movies Clooney's chosen to do got made not because of him but because they were cheap to make and didn't lose money. Simple as that. Hell Clooney himself has admitted that.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

George Clooney is not a movie star. Movie stars guarantee big openings and big returns. He can't do that to save his life and has all but given up trying. There was a point where he could like with The Perfect Storm and Ocean's 11 (Out of Sight flopped back in the summer of '98) which is why I made the Nicole Kidman comparison, i.e. a brief period where he was red hot.

The movies Clooney's chosen to do got made not because of him but because they were cheap to make and didn't lose money. Simple as that.

I think you're right to a degree. Certainly, Clooney hasn't done big movie since Ocean's 13, which is also his last movie gross over $100 million domestic, but also at the same time I don't think he's had a big movie in recent years that proves or disproves it.

Though you could also be right in the fact that the reason why Clooney hasn't done a tentpole film is that he couldn't sell it. But at the same time, he definitely seems to be more comfortable with smaller movies.

 

[DACrowe]

The only reason Good Night and Good Luck got made was because of Ocean's 12. The only reason Michael Clayton got made was because of Ocean's Thirteen and The Borne Ultimatum (screenwriter of Bourne was director/writer of MC). At this point, he no longer has to make those films to get what he wants made because he proved his speciality films can make BOFFO. Yes, they're not making $200 million domestic or $500 million WW, but he was able to transition his career to the films he wants to make. He could have done an Ocean's 14 or alternate between passion projects and paychecks like Matt Damon and Brad Pitt do, but he proved his speciality films make bank when Up in the Air, a movie about a guy who loves his job of firing people, came out in the heart of the recession in 2009 and still crossed $150 million WW. The Descendants made more than any other speciality BP release last year with $180 million WW. Would so many people want to see a movie about a Hawaiian businessman saying goodbye to his dying comatose wife who had an affair on him without a movie star? Probably not.

I agree he is no longer a blockbuster-opener. But he chose not to be by making enough blockbusters to become a speciality and awards-darling. He now only makes those movies and opens them consistently bigger than anyone in that budget-class. Nicole Kidman hasn't been able to open a profitable movie in half a decade. That's the difference.

 

[Bruce Malone]

George Clooney is not a movie star. Movie stars guarantee big openings and big returns. He can't do that to save his life and has all but given up trying. There was a point where he could like with The Perfect Storm and Ocean's 11 (Out of Sight flopped back in the summer of '98) which is why I made the Nicole Kidman comparison, i.e. a brief period where he was red hot.

The movies Clooney's chosen to do got made not because of him but because they were cheap to make and didn't lose money. Simple as that. Hell Clooney himself has admitted that.

George Clooney is the movie star. The only thing that even remotely sells the past few small films he's made is his name. No one would have even heard of a film like the decendants if not for clooney's involvement.

He chooses to do smaller films but he is what sells those films. Look at tom hanks even, he was the guy who used to be the definition of a movie star look at a film like larry crowne or whatever nobody cared.

Even will smith, if he's not in a film that has alien or robots they don't sell. Look at seven pounds. Clooney sells films as clooney no gimmicks, very few stars can pull that off.

 

[Project862006]

to be honest i think Will Smith is truly the only male lead who draws huge at the BO other johnny depp(but i think this is more for his obscure characters)

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

People don't flock to see movies just because Clooney is in them. Which is why I said to compare the box office returns of The Descendents to Ides of Match last year. Both got tons of press. But one did great business. The other didn't. Because the awards/critical attention got people in. Not Clooney.

Even will smith, if he's not in a film that has alien or robots they don't sell. Look at seven pounds.

Bad Boys I & II, Enemy of the State, Hitch and The Pursuit of Happyness disagree. Which is exactly why Smith is a movie star. On the latter films, it was Smith's name that made people go, "If Will Smith's in it, I'm seeing it!"

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I'd say The Descendants was definitely more successful because of Clooney. I don't see it grossing as much with a smaller name actor.

Like Project said with Will Smith, Seven Pounds didn't do that well. Smaller movies can go either way.

 

[Project862006]

most super hero movies would die to have the WW gross of Hancock which made 624 Million WW

and was'nt a comic book character or a sequel either

 

[terry78]

Hancock was a good attempt at making a somewhat comedic superhero deconstruction at a PG-13 level.

 

[Bruce Malone]

People don't flock to see movies just because Clooney is in them. Which is why I said to compare the box office returns of The Descendents to Ides of Match last year. Both got tons of press. But one did great business. The other didn't. Because the awards/critical attention got people in. Not Clooney.



Bad Boys I & II, Enemy of the State, Hitch and The Pursuit of Happyness disagree. Which is exactly why Smith is a movie star. On the latter films, it was Smith's name that made people go, "If Will Smith's in it, I'm seeing it!"

I'm talking current will smith like i was talking current tom hanks. Will's last no gimmicks movie i believe was 7 pounds and it flopped. I feel to be a true movie start you have to be able to sell films that aren't obvious hits. Will's been out of the game a little while so he may prove me wrong.

 

[:eek:]

Summer 2012 Foreign Forecast

by Ray Subers


April 25, 2012


The Summer movie season officially starts in the U.S. when The Avengers opens on May 4th. Overseas, though, the season has actually already gotten underway with Battleship's foreign rollout. This extended schedule is indicative of the growing importance of the overseas market to Hollywood's bottom line—last year, international grosses accounted for 69 percent of overall sales, compared with 66 percent in 2010 and 64 percent in 2009.

Nearly all big-budget movies this Summer are designed with the intention that they will earn at least 60 percent of their revenue in foreign territories, with the biggest grosses likely coming from developing countries China and Russia. As usual, sequels like The Dark Knight Rises and Ice Age: Continental Drift should fare the best, though some original movies like Brave, Snow White and the Huntsman and Prometheus will likely make their mark as well.
Here's a look at some of the top contenders, including a forecast for what they may gross during their overseas run. Keep an eye out for the domestic forecast, which should arrive next week ahead of The Avengers U.S. debut.

The Dark Knight Rises: The Dark Knight is the second-highest grossing comic book adaptation ever overseas with $469 million—still, compared to its domestic total of $533 million, that seems like an unremarkable number. In the four years since that movie was released, though, the international marketplace has expanded significantly, and The Dark Knight seems to be highly regarded (two years later, Christopher Nolan's Inception earned $533 million overseas). The promise that this is the end of Nolan's Batman story should also help, and the movie has a very good chance of becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever on an overseas basis.
Forecast: $850 million

Ice Age: Continental Drift: As hard as this may be to believe, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs is the top animated movie ever overseas with $690 million. With very few exceptions, animated sequels improve on their predecessors, often by large margins. Since it's the fourth entry in the franchise, a strong comparison for Continental Drift is Shrek Forever After. That movie only experienced an eight percent bump over its predecessor, and something in that area seems reasonable for Ice Age 4.
Forecast: $740 million

The Avengers: The five lead-in movies for The Avengers didn't quite breakout overseas—the biggest entry thus far is Iron Man 2 with around $312 million. Bringing the whole team together, though, to fight a large global threat should give the movie a huge boost. A nice comparison here is Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which brought wide-scale destruction to the city of Chicago (similar to what The Avengers is doing to New York City) and improved a healthy 78 percent over its predecessor.
Forecast: $580 million

The Amazing Spider-Man: Five years ago, Spider-Man 3 earned $555 million overseas. The reboot, which subs out series regulars Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst for Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, could take a bit of a hit in attendance in developed markets for being so closely timed to the last entry. However, the title character is easily one of the most popular comic book characters on a global basis, and the expansion of developing markets like China, Russia and Brazil combined with the addition of 3D should allow The Amazing Spider-Man to match Spider-Man 3's gross.
Forecast: $570 million

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted: After spending two movies in Africa, the Madagascar animals make their way to mainland Europe in Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted. That move will obviously help maintain the franchise's strength in that region, and with likely improvements in Asia and Latin America the DreamWorks Animation sequel should noticeably out-gross Madagascar 2: Escape 2 Africa ($424 million).
Forecast: $525 million

Brave: Disney/Pixar has an incredibly strong track record overseas—in the last five years, the lowest-grossing movie was WALL-E at $298 million, and Up managed to get to $438 million. The best comparison for Brave, though, is non-Pixar Disney animated movie Tangled, which earned $390 million a year-and-a-half ago. With the Pixar brand attached, Brave could wind up close to that amount.
Forecast: $380 million

MIB 3: There's a fair amount of cynicism being directed towards the third installment in the Men in Black franchise, and it may not wind up being a huge hit domestically. However, Will Smith's status as an international superstar has never been in doubt—Hancock and I Am Legend, Smith's most recent action movies, earned $396 million and $329 million, respectively. MIB 3 will at least join these movies in the $300 million club.
Forecast: $370 million

Snow White and the Huntsman: Producer Joe Roth also brought 2010's Alice in Wonderland to the big screen, and that movie earned over $690 million overseas. That total is unthinkable for Snow White and the Huntsman, but it does have an internationally recognizable cast (Kristen Stewart, Charlize Theron and Chris Hemsworth), and fantasy movies tend to do disproportionately well overseas (look at the last two Narnia movies for evidence of that). Distributor Universal Pictures International got Robin Hood to $216.4 million in 2010, and Huntsman's fantasy elements should help it get noticeably higher than that.
Forecast: $280 million

Battleship: It's cheating to make a forecast for Battleship at this point, considering it's already opened in most foreign markets and has made over $141 million. Depending on how it holds on in China and Russia, and how it plays in Latin America, the movie could wind up close to $300 million, though we'll play it more conservative for now.
Forecast: $270 million

G.I. Joe: Retaliation: With $152.3 million, G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra was a decent overseas performer, though it was probably held back a bit by its U.S.-centric premise. Retaliation combats that problem by adding The Rock and Bruce Willis, both of whom are major international stars. The Rock recently helped Journey 2: The Mysterious Island get to over $220 million, while Willis' last blockbuster-level overseas release was Live Free or Die Hard, which earned $249 million. Retaliation should be able to get to similar levels.
Forecast: $260 million

Prometheus: Ridley Scott's quasi-prequel to Alien is a tricky one to gauge on an overseas basis. Sci-fi movies don't play quite as well as fantasy—for example, J.J. Abrams' Star Trek only earned $128 million in 2009. That being said, Alien Resurrection did $113 million fifteen years ago. Using that as a launching pad, Prometheus could be in for over $200 million. It's also important to remember that 20th Century Fox International got Rise of the Planet of the Apes to over $305 million last Summer, which is probably the high-point for Prometheus.
Forecast: $250 million

Dark Shadows: Johnny Depp and Tim Burton's last collaboration, Alice in Wonderland, earned an incredible $690 million overseas. A more modest comparison, though, for Dark Shadows is Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which did $268 million. One thing that might keep Dark Shadows even lower than that is China's stance on the supernatural—it doesn't look like any of the Twilight movies played there, implying that Dark Shadows, which stars Depp as an un-dead vampire, may also get squashed by censors.
Forecast: $240 million

Rock of Ages: The two best comparisons for Rock of Ages are Hairspray and Mamma Mia!, though there's a huge discrepency between the two movies in overseas grosses. Hairspray earned a meager $83 million, while Mamma Mia! did an incredible $465 million. While Rock of Ages hews closer to Hairspray in many ways (including sharing a director, Adam Shankman), it can split the difference between the two movies thanks to the presence of international star Tom Cruise.
Forecast: $230 million

The Bourne Legacy: The Bourne Ultimatum hit a new high for the Bourne series when it earned $215 million overseas in 2007. For The Bourne Legacy, though, star Matt Damon is replaced with Jeremy Renner. While Renner is a recognizable star following Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol and The Avengers, Damon's portrayal of Jason Bourne was integral to the franchise's success to this point. A slight drop seems inevitable for the Damon-less entry.
Forecast: $200 million

The Expendables 2: While official figures aren't available for the first Expendables movie, it definitely earned over $171 million. Bringing back all of the essential cast while expanding the roles of Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger should help it reach roughly the same point.
Forecast: $180 million

 

[dark_b]

George Clooney isn't loved by the public like the media thinks he is. Can't "charm" em like he did during the ER salad days. Jeff Katz said it best: he's the most overrated box-office draw this side of Nicole Kidman.

If he was making the same glib, Hollywood ******* remarks he does while headlining a big studio blockbuster, no way he'd last long. Alienated too many people and that's why he does low-budget fare. Doesn't cost much and when it returns $30-$40 million, it's not a loss. There isn't a jump to see his latest unless the reviews are that good. Just compare the box-office of Idles of March to The Descendants last year.

Closest thing to Cary Grant is Will Smith. A movie star whose very imagine consensus on and offscreen and will change whatever movie he's starring in to accommodate to his persona. That's why Django Unchained didn't happen. Tarantino wouldn't let Smith and his writers anywhere near the script.

i agree with this post. and i agree with Django. and i am so angry because Smith would be so good in a Tarantino movie.

 

[Liam_H]

Yea Seven Pounds didn't do as well as Smith's blockbusters, broke his long steak of $100 million domestic earners. But it was more of an under performance than a flop.

 

[Boom]

That projection for TDKR is ridiculous.

 

[cherokeesam]

That projection for TDKR is ridiculous.

Obviously, TDKR is going to do stellar numbers; but boxofficemojo is making the same mistake that every other TDKR vs. TDK forecaster fails to take into consideration: The Joker Factor. TDK was so frickin' huge because of The Joker (and the actor who portrayed him). Most iconic supervillain ever, and by most counts, Ledger's was the best portrayal of him ever. Bane and Catwoman aren't nearly as popular, and both are already being parodied and even outright ridiculed in a lot of corners of the blogosphere by fanboys (and ex-fanboys). Couple that with a highly political (and controversial) storyline that throws today's socio-economic headlines into the faces of audiences who are already getting that in every interminable political TV ad and newscast in an election year....

 

[marvelman2006]

George Clooney to me just doesnt have the mainstream power anymore and I get the feeling he has that "its all about the oscar at this point" vibe. All his movies since oceans 13 are rather forgettable. Why he doesnt try another action movie or comedy is beyond me.

 

[marvelman2006]

Obviously, TDKR is going to do stellar numbers; but boxofficemojo is making the same mistake that every other TDKR vs. TDK forecaster fails to take into consideration: The Joker Factor. TDK was so frickin' huge because of The Joker (and the actor who portrayed him). Most iconic supervillain ever, and by most counts, Ledger's was the best portrayal of him ever. Bane and Catwoman aren't nearly as popular, and both are already being parodied and even outright ridiculed in a lot of corners of the blogosphere by fanboys (and ex-fanboys). Couple that with a highly political (and controversial) storyline that throws today's socio-economic headlines into the faces of audiences who are already getting that in every interminable political TV ad and newscast in an election year....

Factor in also it was ledgers last big movie and people were incredibly curious. I think it was just the perfect storm, ledgers untimely passing, curiousity to the people who didnt see batman begins, die hard fans, unbelievable hype and ultimately a very satisfying and important comic book movie. TDKR will not top that movie and there has never been a movie sequel that surpassed the one prior in dealing with these types of numbers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still think that TDK got a boost from Ledger's death as well as the popularity of the character.

 

[terry78]

Honestly, most people will go to see a live action version of who is possibly the most well known comic book villain in existence. You couldn't walk down the street and show people a picture of Bane and have a lot of them know who he is. Catwoman on the other hand, probably moreso.

 

[marvelman2006]

Thats why Im surprised they didnt go with someone like the penguin, freeze or riddler. Catwoman was a given at this point but Nolan has really chosen the more quieter villians outside of the joker. Im pretty sure Rals al gul was bumped up a few pegs after batman begins.

 

[Chewy]

The Batman characters everyone and their mother knows are the ones from the 60s show. Batman, Robin, Joker, Catwoman, Riddler, Penguin

People don't really need to recognize Bane as long as they market Catwoman.

 

[CConn]

I still don't think Joker/Ledger played that much of a role in TDK's success.

I mean, yes, people were curious about Ledger's performance, and yeah, people love the Joker, but the buzz I heard for the movie from every outlet - Internet, tv, personal interactions, critical reviews, etc. - was just whag goddamn amazing movie it was that transcended every superhero movie that proceeded it. And no one expected it to be that good.

Now with TDK and Inception, people ARE expecting TDKR to be that good, if not better. I think that bodes very well for its opening numbers, and, if it's actually as good as or better than TDKR, I think it could surpass TDK's BO overall as well.

 

[marvelman2006]

I still don't think Joker/Ledger played that much of a role in TDK's success.

I mean, yes, people were curious about Ledger's performance, and yeah, people love the Joker, but the buzz I heard for the movie from every outlet - Internet, tv, personal interactions, critical reviews, etc. - was just whag goddamn amazing movie it was that transcended every superhero movie that proceeded it. And no one expected it to be that good.

Now with TDK and Inception, people ARE expecting TDKR to be that good, if not better. I think that bodes very well for its opening numbers, and, if it's actually as good as or better than TDKR, I think it could surpass TDK's BO overall as well.

I dunno man when heath passed away in jan of 2008 after that it was nonstop "you have to see ledgers last performance" vibe. The teaser before I am legend was big but ledgers death magnituded that. Unfornately we will never know if it would have been big had he not died but you cant deny his death played a big part in it because it really got the movie put under a magnifying glass. I like to think what happened was 25-30% of people went to the dark knight for ledger and were blown away by the overall movie and went back repeatedly and not to mention WOM was through the roof. I expect the TDKR will top out at 400 - 450 million.

 

[craigdbfan]

I still don't think Joker/Ledger played that much of a role in TDK's success.

I mean, yes, people were curious about Ledger's performance, and yeah, people love the Joker, but the buzz I heard for the movie from every outlet - Internet, tv, personal interactions, critical reviews, etc. - was just whag goddamn amazing movie it was that transcended every superhero movie that proceeded it. And no one expected it to be that good.

Now with TDK and Inception, people ARE expecting TDKR to be that good, if not better. I think that bodes very well for its opening numbers, and, if it's actually as good as or better than TDKR, I think it could surpass TDK's BO overall as well.

Exactly.

People constantly say that TDK got this magical push by Ledgers death which I find to be completely off. With or without Ledgers death TDK was going to hit the billion mark. The movie itself is what kept those legs strong not an actors death.

Inception was the proof in the pudding by being just 176 mil under a billion in terms of WW gross. The "From the director of TDK" and the original concept along with a solid cast did most of the work to get all that money. That movie didn't need an actor to die and neither did TDK.

The most Heath Ledger's death did was get more media coverage for TDK but the amount of people that might have been interested in the morbid factor alone wouldn't of even made a dent on this movies box office gross.