2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Iceman]

I think Joker/Ledger played a role but if the film wasn't so good it would still be capable of making only a 50% or so increase on Begins. To get $500m everything had to come together.

 

[cherokeesam]

Exactly.

People constantly say that TDK got this magical push by Ledgers death which I find to be completely off. With or without Ledgers death TDK was going to hit the billion mark. The movie itself is what kept those legs strong not an actors death.

Inception was the proof in the pudding by being just 176 mil under a billion in terms of WW gross. The "From the director of TDK" and the original concept along with a solid cast did most of the work to get all that money. That movie didn't need an actor to die and neither did TDK.

The most Heath Ledger's death did was get more media coverage for TDK but the amount of people that might have been interested in the morbid factor alone wouldn't of even made a dent on this movies box office gross.

Yeah, I can think of only two movies where morbidity *might* have had a factor in a movie's popularity, and that's TDK and Brandon Lee's Crow. But I can list a half-dozen more movies where a death on the set did *not* impact box office in any noticeable way. Instead, as I said, TDK's main claim to popularity is The Joker himself....the character, not the actor. Even if Heath was still alive and well today, TDK would be a massive hit and Heath would be one of the most in-demand stars on the block due to his portrayal. (Whether or not the Oscar would still be there is another story....Oscar is notoriously fickle --- and stupid --- when it comes to awards season, so there's a damn good chance that the pity factor is the only reason they gave it posthumously.)

But no matter how brilliant TDKR turns out to be --- and I have every reason to believe it *will* be brilliant --- Bane and Catwoman, especially as portrayed in this movie, are leagues behind Joker in the box office appeal category.

 

[HighFivingMF]

But Inception still made 800 million on an original story without a villain. So a movie from the director of The Dark Knight and Inception, especially one with Batman and Catwoman that's supposed to be as good as everyone said, will do gigantic numbers regardless of the fact Ledger isn't there.

 

[Marvin]

Inception's performance is a huge factor here. However the bat films are not inception(not even close,(especially begins jezz)).

If TDK performed poorly overseas(not saying it did) than This film may as well. I don't see pirates numbers for this film. All it comes down it is how good the film really is. And if Hathaway owns or drops the ball.(I expect the same forgettable stuff from Bale).

 

[DACrowe]

George Clooney to me just doesnt have the mainstream power anymore and I get the feeling he has that "its all about the oscar at this point" vibe. All his movies since oceans 13 are rather forgettable. Why he doesnt try another action movie or comedy is beyond me.

Everyone has different opinions of course, but I found Michael Clayton to be amazing and also really liked Up in the Air and The Descendants. I'm glad he's making movie's really passionate about as opposed to a bunch of generic blockbusters that are extremely forgettable (like the Ocean's movies).

Just different tastes, I guess.

 

[craigdbfan]

‘Avengers’ Pre-Sales Bigger Than Previous Marvel Films Combined

More countries are reporting grosses. The superhero certain blockbuster doesn’t come out in the U.S. until May 4th.

But my sources say early box office estimates are coming out today from 10 of the 42 territories where Marvel‘s The Avengers from Disney was released today for the start of its international run. And the hotly anticipated actioner is already shattering box office records overseas. It earned in U.S. dollar estimates $17.1M from 10 countries: including $6.2M in Australia, $2.7M in Italy, $2.9 in France, $1.3M in the Philippines, $1.3M in Taiwan, $800K in New Zealand, and $900K others. With just over a week until the U.S. release, MovieTickets.com reports the superhero actioner ”is pre-selling more tickets for the upcoming release than the online ticketing company sold for Captain America, Thor, Iron Man 2, and Iron Man combined at the same point in the sales cycle for each film. In fact, pre-sales are over 1 1/2-times that of these past Marvel films combined sales at the same point in the sales cycle”. MovieTickets.com reports that 56% of Avengers pre-sales are from fans wanting to see the film in 3D. And nearly 37% are from moviegoers buying tickets to see the film in IMAX 3D.

Two nations, Australia and New Zealand, having were holidays: ANZAC Day, so that helped boost box office. Australia’s opening day is the second-highest opening of all time there behind only the final Harry Potter (A$7M). It is also the highest Marvel opening day ever, 214% ahead of Iron Man 2 (A$1.8M Thursday opening) and 136% ahead of The Dark Knight (A$2.5M Thursday opening), and the highest Disney opening day ever for a Disney film. The pic playing in Taiwan is the biggest industry Wednesday opening ever, the biggest opening day of 2012 (173% above Battleship) and the second-biggest opening day for any Marvel film (after only Spider-Man 3). In New Zealand, pic scored highest grossing opening day ever, beating Harrry Potter finale (NZ$975L). The pic isnt even pen yet in China, Russia, or japan. The Avengers is the first Marvel film to be marketed and distributed by Disney, so this is great news for the studio.

Very good news.

 

[DACrowe]

Inception's performance is a huge factor here. However the bat films are not inception(not even close,(especially begins jezz)).

If TDK performed poorly overseas(not saying it did) than This film may as well. I don't see pirates numbers for this film. All it comes down it is how good the film really is. And if Hathaway owns or drops the ball.(I expect the same forgettable stuff from Bale).

You expect Hathaway and Hardy to be forgettable?

I do think it won't have as much appeal overseas as more CGI-based colorful spectacle films (Pirates, Transformers, SM3), but it should do well. I do think based solely on the hype and public love for TDK, as well as Inception, TDKR will cross $430 million domestic. Even if it fails to get much further than that, it's still a huge success for the movie.

 

[Iceman]

‘Avengers’ Pre-Sales Bigger Than Previous Marvel Films Combined

Very good news.

Excellent. This is going to be a lot bigger than any other film Marvel Studios has made so far.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

You expect Hathaway and Hardy to be forgettable?

I do think it won't have as much appeal overseas as more CGI-based colorful spectacle films (Pirates, Transformers, SM3), but it should do well. I do think based solely on the hype and public love for TDK, as well as Inception, TDKR will cross $430 million domestic. Even if it fails to get much further than that, it's still a huge success for the movie.

Rises will have it's fair share of earth shaking, "ground breaking" cgi.

 

[Marvin]

You expect Hathaway and Hardy to be forgettable?

I do think it won't have as much appeal overseas as more CGI-based colorful spectacle films (Pirates, Transformers, SM3), but it should do well. I do think based solely on the hype and public love for TDK, as well as Inception, TDKR will cross $430 million domestic. Even if it fails to get much further than that, it's still a huge success for the movie.

You expect Hathaway and Hardy to overshadow Heath?
I know, you never said that, neither did I say what you implied. I merely stated that I estimate Hathaway either stealing the show or affirming the original fears towards her casting.

If right now they made a sequel to Salt and they cast AH, I'd be saying the same thing. Jolie does this kinda work very naturally. AH is a mystery imo. As for Hardy, meh wait and see for me.

Inception did amazing numbers overseas, something not many people talk about is the numbers it did domestically.

 

[Iceman]

Rises will have it's fair share of earth shaking, "ground breaking" cgi.

Not relative to Avengers/Transformers type films. And that's not a criticism.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Not relative to Avengers/Transformers type films. And that's not a criticism.

Dude, Rises' CGI is literally groundbreaking.

 

[DACrowe]

Rises will have it's fair share of earth shaking, "ground breaking" cgi.

It'll also be plot/dialogue heavy, mostly shot in dark, urban or earthy colors and doesn't have the big "wow" spectacle factor of say, Spider-Man battling a giant sand monster, a giant Kraken and/or mermaids and/or typhoons trying to eat Johnny Depp, or space-robot-cars destroying major cities. I also don't think international markets as a whole seem to be as keen on superheroes as we are. Spider-Man seems to be an exception because Raimi's movies had such grand spectacle, but the idea of people wearing tights and fighting each other doesn't translate overseas.

I still think TDKR will do so well domestically and solidly overseas to cross $900 million WW this year.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It seems this time around Spidey is also darkly lit. One can almost mistake it for a Fincher film.

 

[DACrowe]

Or a Nolan one.

I actually think by downplaying the visual "wow" factor in the trailers for TASM could hurt it some overseas, but not much. I'm assuming with Spidey vs. Lizard fights it's gonna' look cool and people will see it. I doubt it will have the action scenes of SM2 and SM3, but it will look good. Pirates 4 didn't have the same level of spectacle as the other two sequels and people still saw it because it offered just enough with mermaids and Johnny Depp.

Don't know if Batman vs. a very toned down Bane and Catwoman will do as well overseas. Though it will obviously dominate the American box office this year.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Or a Nolan one.

Nah. The very distinct digital sheen immediately recalls Fincher. Nolan has a more (duh) celluloid texture.

 

[dark_b]

Finchers movies look digital to you?

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Finchers movies look digital to you?

Yes. The best kind.

 

[rayc1971]

will avengers be the first 200 mill opening weekend or darknight rises?

 

[Tacit Ronin]

will avengers be the first 200 mill opening weekend or darknight rises?

Neither.

 

[rayc1971]

Neither.

wow you dont think so i think your wrong on that.one or both will hit 200 mill

 

[DACrowe]

Nah. The very distinct digital sheen immediately recalls Fincher. Nolan has a more (duh) celluloid texture.

That's because they had to shoot in 3D (which could either help the movie as fewer people will see it than the last 3, or hurt it as to drive skeptics away). But they are clearly emulating Nolan with a brooding Peter, Captain Stacy turning into a semi-Jim Gordon, Peter haunted by flashbacks of his father and even throwing the word "Begins" in the trailer.

Finchers movies look digital to you?

The last three were.

 

[CConn]

I dunno man when heath passed away in jan of 2008 after that it was nonstop "you have to see ledgers last performance" vibe. The teaser before I am legend was big but ledgers death magnituded that. Unfornately we will never know if it would have been big had he not died but you cant deny his death played a big part in it because it really got the movie put under a magnifying glass. I like to think what happened was 25-30% of people went to the dark knight for ledger and were blown away by the overall movie and went back repeatedly and not to mention WOM was through the roof. I expect the TDKR will top out at 400 - 450 million.

I'm sorry, but nothing in your post even resembles factual or even antidotal evidence. It's just you rambling thoughts for a few sentences.

And don't call me man. It's a tiresome colloquialism.

 

[DACrowe]

Neither.

TDKR could, but it's an outside shot. I don't think TA will. TA does have a decent shot at unseating HP8 for the record, though even that I don't feel is guaranteed. TDKR is definitely crossing $175 million. It really is going to depend on how many screens multiplexes are willing to show it that weekend and if the demand can fill most of them every showing. But Digital distribution of films has made that a long-shot possibility, I think.

 

[CConn]

The one thing that might actually hurt TDKR's numbers is its lack of 3D showings. Not at I'd want to see it in 3D, but that would tack 4 dollars onto like half the tickets sold.