2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Marvin]

BB did a pretty great job captivating its audience. It got mostly great reviews, only slightly less than what TDK would later get and that was mostly because a lot of critics felt initially turned off by a "serious Batman movie." It opened small because most of the GA was just not interested in another Batman movie after they had 4 in the previous 15 or so years, the last two of which sucked. But BB had amazing legs. It opened ridiculously small for a superhero movie ($41 million, I think?) and went on to have very small drops and crossed $200 million. People were writing off a sequel to it as impossible it's OW, but by the end of its run a Joker-sequel was all but inevitable.

I also think it helped contribute to the hype for TDK given that BB was so well received on DVD by those who skipped "another Batman movie" in the theater. Personally, I remember being ind of blown away by it. I still preferred other superhero movies (like SM2), but I didn't realize Batman could be don so well on the screen and that I could see a superhero movie break away from the clichés so easily. I honestly think that if the Schumaucher films didn't exist, it would have crossed $300 million that year.

I recall begins doing moderate sales upon it's DVD release, somewhere in the 12million range that quarter as far as rental revenue. Compare that to say the first Spidermans supposed $190 million (in 3days), I say great. More power to the people that discovered it, I'm happy for them. Whenever it was that people started grabbing copies of BBegins it definitely wasn't when it was made available to them.

That being said, when they re-released it with(the proper) TDK, I recall sales of bb going through the roof. That may very well be the number you are reporting and if so, it only serves to further my point somewhat.

Hah. Apparently Marvin was more wrong than even I thought. Thank God for film school.

wow...
anyways, apparently a film doing strong numbers(which isn't exactly how I would describe begins) warrants some sort of lack in film academia? If I had only figured out this argument back in the days.

Well, that's nice. But just because you're forgiving with some things, doesn't mean you aren't strict with others.

You're right, it almost certainly means I'm strict with others.(i pity the foo)

I'm not a massive fan of BB, but I've never heard anything but positive things about it from the GA. Aside from the people who thought it was a B89 prequel, of course.

I've heard plenty bad, for example Katie homes...
Anyways, what is said about a film coming after a genuinely disappointing installment from a different age will always have some positive adjectives involved. That doesn't change how the film measures up to it's stronger contemporaries. Nor does it effect how it performs.

The fact that he still had the rubber suit, I'm very curious what fan reviews said about such a thing, considering how much they hated it in previous installments.

Okay, that makes sense. Maybe you were just being heavy handed with your original comments. BB doesn't have the explosiveness of TDK, "falls short of viewable".

I used that to illustrate an example of BB's short comings. BB represents a lot of potential never reached imo, and a lot of that potential in present in TDK.

I could go into such things, but this is hardly the thread.

What the hell does an unwatchable experience mean?

It means exactly what it sounds like. I hit play, I don't have a good experience and I turn it off. If there was a film made about a Superman that accidently at a bowl of kryptonite and he spent the entire film powerless and rocking in a blanket I'd say the exact same thing. I really couldn't care less how many fundamentals of film making were intact.

I totally agree it had issues story-wise, but it was a beautifully shot filmed, with strong set design, costuming, and production value. I've always appreciated the film for those reasons alone.

Takes more than pretty pictures and technicalities for me personally. But hey, film school right...

 

[Marvin]

Also, anyone that thinks WB didn't market BB must have been in a self induced 6month coma. BB is said to have had one of the strongest well thought out Campaigns in recent years.

Unfortunately, you can only sell a broken cell phone to so many people(at a time).

 

[mclay18]

Because it was needlessly timid and probably lost them money given how successful TDK was when it was marketed properly.

WB and Nolan didn't know if BB was going to be successful enough to revive the franchise at that point. If the movie wasn't well-received by critics or audiences at theaters or on home video, BB would've been a one-off. There would be no TDK or TDKR, period.

At least they had faith in the movie, and didn't just dump it into theaters without hardly any marketing or positive buzz.

 

[CConn]

Also, anyone that thinks WB didn't market BB must have been in a self induced 6month coma. BB is said to have had one of the strongest well thought out Campaigns in recent years.

Unfortunately, you can only sell a broken cell phone to so many people(at a time).

Um, said by who?

I wasn't in a coma when BB was being released, even followed the news of it pretty closely, and it's marketing was nowhere near as good as TDK or GL's.

 

[CConn]

WB and Nolan didn't know if BB was going to be successful enough to revive the franchise at that point. If the movie wasn't well-received by critics or audiences at theaters or on home video, BB would've been a one-off. There would be no TDK or TDKR, period.

At least they had faith in the movie, and didn't just dump it into theaters without hardly any marketing or positive buzz.

Yes, I know. I said that myself.

 

[CConn]

wow...
anyways, apparently a film doing strong numbers(which isn't exactly how I would describe begins) warrants some sort of lack in film academia? If I had only figured out this argument back in the days.

Hah. No, I was making a joke. Not criticizing the whole of cinema academia.

You're right, it almost certainly means I'm strict with others.(i pity the foo)

Um, no? I just said its possible that you could be tougher on some films than others. It really doesn't seem like that much of an offensive thing to say.

I used that to illustrate an example of BB's short comings. BB represents a lot of potential never reached imo, and a lot of that potential in present in TDK.

Yes, I know. And I actually conceded to your point. I agreed with you. It just seemed like you were being a little heavy handed with your verbiage. Calm down, not everything is a criticism of your opinion.

It means exactly what it sounds like. I hit play, I don't have a good experience and I turn it off. If there was a film made about a Superman that accidently at a bowl of kryptonite and he spent the entire film powerless and rocking in a blanket I'd say the exact same thing.

And that I can understand. Because that type of enjoyment is the sum of all of the little things that make a movie a movie, and, like I said, SR was lacking in some of those categories.

I really couldn't care less how many fundamentals of film making were intact. Takes more than pretty pictures and technicalities for me personally. But hey, film school right...

This I do disagree with. Because its dumb. Film school should teach you the art of film as an academtic pursuit, and like all academic pursuits, a detailed examination and critique is necessary to properly understand and appreciate the art.

Like I said, I totally get why you're not a fan of the movie, that's fine. I'm not arguing that, or criticizing it in the slightest. However, to say you don't care about the merits of the legitimately impressive technical aspects of the film is foolish. Because as a film maker, you should be focused on, and learning from the technical aspects...because that's a very large part of filmmaking.

But I apologize. Now I'm just preaching. Andi shouldn't be. I just appreciate the art of filmmaking a hell of a lot. And am very passionate about it.

 

[chaseter]

- One big budget summer movie that everyone on the internet thinks will be awesome will actually suck and underperform.

- One modestly budgeted summer movie that has little buzz will surprise everyone and garner critical praise.

- One movie that everyone knows will be good will outperform everyone's predictions.

Those are the three rules of summer movies.

 

[CConn]

Well, I'd say #3 was The Hunger Games.

Speaking of which, I really hated the cinematography in that movie.

 

[Marvin]

- One big budget summer movie that everyone on the internet thinks will be awesome will actually suck and underperform.

- One modestly budgeted summer movie that has little buzz will surprise everyone and garner critical praise.

- One movie that everyone knows will be good will outperform everyone's predictions.

Those are the three rules of summer movies.

apply this to last year please

 

[amazingfantasy15]

The difference I feel for Spidey in comparison to the WB reboots(and even the Marvel Studio one), is that they just weren't all that watchable as films. Especially Returns.

If a movie is dope in context and viewability than it will do strong numbers. I've mentioned it before but Begins just falls short of this in large part, whereas I remember running back to watch TDK twice.

From what I've seen I think ASM will have this.

Batman Begins was the first movie in about 10 years I went to see twice in the theaters. I thought the movie was amazing, one of, if not the best, superhero origin movies.

 

[Bruce Malone]

As for batman begins it was what you would call a slow burning blockbuster and probably the last of its kind. It didn't have a mega debut but still had great legs to cross 200 million it sold very well on home media and built up a big fanbase. Anyone who doesn't think so there is no way wb would have given nolan a 180 milllion budget for tdk and another 100 milllion for marketing.

I say it is probably the last of its kind due to the fact that today if a film doesn't break 50+ million in its debut it will almost likely not make 200 million and the home video market is nowhere as strong as in 2005-06.

 

[terry78]

Kids will get into Spidey this time around again. A lot of them never had the original trilogy, so they're going in fresh in a sense. They've seen the other three on dvd probably but never on a big screen,

 

[amazingfantasy15]

apply this to last year please

1. Cowboys & Aliens

2. Bridesmaids

3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, maybe

 

[Marvin]

Hah. No, I was making a joke. Not criticizing the whole of cinema academia.

Um, no? I just said its possible that you could be tougher on some films than others. It really doesn't seem like that much of an offensive thing to say.

I get it, and I was mostly being sarcastic, I apologize.

And that I can understand. Because that type of enjoyment is the sum of all of the little things that make a movie a movie, and, like I said, SR was lacking in some of those categories.

ergo the unwatchable film comment.

This I do disagree with. Because its dumb. Film school should teach you the art of film as an academtic pursuit, and like all academic pursuits, a detailed examination and critique is necessary to properly understand and appreciate the art.

Like I said, I totally get why you're not a fan of the movie, that's fine. I'm not arguing that, or criticizing it in the slightest. However, to say you don't care about the merits of the legitimately impressive technical aspects of the film is foolish. Because as a film maker, you should be focused on, and learning from the technical aspects...because that's a very large part of film making.

I actually now see where you were coming from. There is a lot to like about SR, especially if you appreciate film. For me however, I appreciate comic books a lot, so I'm bound to be hindered by productions that seemingly don't.

But I apologize. Now I'm just preaching. Andi shouldn't be. I just appreciate the art of filmmaking a hell of a lot. And am very passionate about it.

No worries.

As for the marketing for Batman Begins, I was in a coma and I seen it everywhere. They had like 11 spots and a billion posters of batman posing with bats all over the place. As for the quality of the marketing that's something different. But the money was there and they were selling it as they are now: A nolan picture.

They even had one of this ads lol
[YT]yM3_e6o6p3I[/YT]
for the ladies.

You mention Green Lanterns campaign. Last I recall, they started off with one of the worst Trailers in Superhero history, then ran into trouble later so they actually pushed their campaign back a several months and were forced into berserker tv spot mode. I wouldn't use gl as a successful example.

 

[Marvin]

Batman Begins was the first movie in about 10 years I went to see twice in the theaters. I thought the movie was amazing, one of, if not the best, superhero origin movies.

I feel the same way about Blade. Look at us, we're a pair.

 

[CConn]

- One big budget summer movie that everyone on the internet thinks will be awesome will actually suck and underperform.

- One modestly budgeted summer movie that has little buzz will surprise everyone and garner critical praise.

- One movie that everyone knows will be good will outperform everyone's predictions.

Those are the three rules of summer movies.

apply this to last year please

- Green Lantern or Cowboys vs. Aliens

- Rise of the Planet of the Apes or MI4

- The last Harry Potter? But I guess that was kinda on par with expectations earnings-wise.

 

[CConn]

I get it, and I was mostly being sarcastic, I apologize.

ergo the unwatchable film comment.

I actually now see where you were coming from. There is a lot to like about SR, especially if you appreciate film. For me however, I appreciate comic books a lot, so I'm bound to be hindered by productions that seemingly don't.

No worries.

Pound it.

As for the marketing for Batman Begins, I was in a coma and I seen it everywhere. They had like 11 spots and a billion posters of batman posing with bats all over the place. As for the quality of the marketing that's something different.

I dunno, from the trailers I saw, I never really thought they did a good job explaining what the movie ease, or just how "must see" it was. It honestly just seemed like a generic action/adventure movie, to me.

It was almost like you could tell from the marketing that they were on unsure footing with it.

You mention Green Lanterns campaign. Last I recall, they started off with one of the worst Trailers in Superhero history, then ran into trouble later so they actually pushed their campaign back a several months and were forced into berserker tv spot mode. I wouldn't use gl as a successful example.

Oh, I wasn't referring to the quality of the trailers. That's an entirely different thing.

But I very much got the sense from GL that they were pushing it to be the next big thing. You saw it everywhere, they made it seem epic, important, etc. Of course that didn't happen because GL sucked, but I can't help but feel if they exerted that same level of confidence and gravitas with BB it would've done better.

 

[mclay18]

I wasn't in a coma when BB was being released, even followed the news of it pretty closely, and it's marketing was nowhere near as good as TDK or GL's.

It didn't need to be. Just saying...

 

[DACrowe]

apply this to last year please

I don't necessarily agree with his theory, but I'll give it a shot:

1) Either Cowboys & Aliens or Green Lantern. Both had Internet hype, but no hype with GA and both indeed ended up sucking and flopping.

2) Bridesmaids, pretty clearly.

3) Does Rise of the Planet of the Apes count? Because I and a lot of people thought it looked terrible, but it did end up being a decent movie and really outperformed its expectations.

The Hunger Games fits the number 3. I really hope TDKR isn't number 1. I could see TASM or SWATH fitting that spot. I hope Prometheus could be number 3, but it probably will do just as expected by doing decent numbers but not great.

EDIT: Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter is a movie that only Internet-types are looking forward to. That thing has Snakes on a Plane-styled flop written all over it.

 

[CConn]

It didn't need to be. Just saying...

That's like saying it didn't need to make more money.

 

[rayc1971]

- One big budget summer movie that everyone on the internet thinks will be awesome will actually suck and underperform.

- One modestly budgeted summer movie that has little buzz will surprise everyone and garner critical praise.

- One movie that everyone knows will be good will outperform everyone's predictions.

Those are the three rules of summer movies.

going by that theory hunger games is#3 -spiderman could be#2-since avengers is already making money that puts batman at#1!i hope not! could we put men in black3 at#1.prometheus could fit number#2 as well.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Starting tonight...

Puny box office records, me number one!

 

[DoomsdayApex]

going by that theory hunger games is#3 -spiderman could be#2-since avengers is already making money that puts batman at#1!i hope not! could we put men in black3 at#1.prometheus could fit number#2 as well.

TDKR is not going to be at number one. That much is certain, especially with Christopher Nolan helming the project. It's simply another case of Return of the King or Deathly Hallows Pt. 2, in terms of expectations.

It's a film that's expected to be big and great, and will be.

 

[DACrowe]

Having just seen TASM trailer I can say that it changes...

nothing. It is a well put together trailer--certainly better than the last two--but I don't see it appealing to more than the rabid fanbase and the children audience. I don't see how it convinces those who saw the original trilogy and enoyed most of it to come see this one.

On a side note, I thought they got Peter's wit right (unlike Raimi) but am disappointed to see the rumors of them "Ang Lee-ing" the origin are true (I wonder about the rumors of changing Uncle Ben are thus also true?). It's funny though to see those who so vehemently hate Raimi defend a change that is far bigger than organic webbing ever was.

Just a few thoughts.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It certainly didn't convince me. I can tell you that much.