2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[MessiahDecoy123]

ASM will get at least 250 domestic and 650 overseas.

I'm not worried.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yep. Andrew Garfield isn't doing it for me. The delivery of his lines have been bothersome and pesky.

 

[Marvin]

Having just seen TASM trailer I can say that it changes...

nothing. It is a well put together trailer--certainly better than the last two--but I don't see it appealing to more than the rabid fanbase and the children audience. I don't see how it convinces those who saw the original trilogy and enoyed most of it to come see this one.

On a side note, I thought they got Peter's wit right (unlike Raimi) but am disappointed to see the rumors of them "Ang Lee-ing" the origin are true (I wonder about the rumors of changing Uncle Ben are thus also true?). It's funny though to see those who so vehemently hate Raimi defend a change that is far bigger than organic webbing ever was.

Just a few thoughts.

What I find intriguing to no end is the possibility that these very people are actively going to avoid this picture. It would have to be out of spite because I honestly can't see any other reason for them not to. They're obviously into colourful blockbusters.

Executives: "Hey folks, you enjoy Spiderman right? Obviously you do, well it's the middle of summer and they're a new Spiderman film with lots of our money behind it, and a new villian."

"Spiderman Fans" : "no!"

don't see it happening, the only people this film needs to convince is the very people that didn't give Raimi's films the time of day!

It certainly didn't convince me. I can tell you that much.

I'll tell you all about it.

 

[Vindex]

Yeah I still don't want to see TASM, the trailer definitely didn't convince me.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yep. Andrew Garfield isn't doing it for me. The delivery of his lines have been bothersome and pesky.

I had to sit through 3 movies with Tobey Maguire's wooden delivery.

Cry me a river.

 

[Marvin]

I think Spidey is going for $280-$320 this year and at least $700 total. They don't know our stars as well as well do in japan, but they do love strong 3D and popular characters.

Sony is looking for this to solidify Spidey as a stronger property than any one Marvel Studio license. And looking at Cap/Thors successful numbers I think they'll do it.

Man, the collective buzz of the comic book genre at this moment probably has Hollywood scrambling to aquire any licenses they can. This is clearly where the money's at right now. Look out for WB to make some big announcements before the summers over.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

The Amazing Spider-Man will struggle to $200 million. Some of you are seriously overestimating the brand-name. Either blinded by your love for the character or still in a daze (...for whatever reason...) from the just released trailer. Same thing as X-Men: First Class, Terminator: Salvation, The Incredible Hulk, Superman Returns, Batman Begins, etc.

You can't expect huge numbers when the last movie was hated and starting everything over with a brand new cast when the general public is used to a specific set of actors in those roles. Just simply saying, "Oh...but its Spider-Man! People will go!" isn't enough.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I had to sit through 3 movies with Tobey Maguire's wooden delivery.

Cry me a river.

Someone's alittle defensive...

 

[Marvin]

No way Jamie. Not this time.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I remember saying the exact same thing last year with X-Men: First Class and The Incredible Hulk a few years back (Watchmen too) to a barrage of "NO WAY! You don't know what you're talking about!"

Just saying... some of you are wearing fanboy shades to see the reality of the situation.

 

[DACrowe]

Yep. Andrew Garfield isn't doing it for me. The delivery of his lines have been bothersome and pesky.

I liked Andrew Garfield. He was the one thing in the trailer (besides some of the CGI money shots) that really worked for me. The rest of the trailer is hit-and-miss, but Garfield brought it. I honestly think he may be the better Spidey, even if he's in the worse movie.

 

[craigdbfan]

The Amazing Spider-Man will struggle to $200 million. Some of you are seriously overestimating the brand-name. Either blinded by your love for the character or still in a daze (...for whatever reason...) from the just released trailer. Same thing as X-Men: First Class, Terminator: Salvation, The Incredible Hulk, Superman Returns, Batman Begins, etc.

You can't expect huge numbers when the last movie was hated and starting everything over with a brand new cast when the general public is used to a specific set of actors in those roles. Just simply saying, "Oh...but its Spider-Man! People will go!" isn't enough.

So true.

 

[Project862006]

i say dont underestimate the spiderman name

hell every spider man movie has done extremely well even the lowest grossing film of the series - spider man 2 made 783 Million WW

Spiderman is unlike any super hero

he appeals to everyone

kids,adults,families,girls,teens,etc.

 

[DACrowe]

What I find intriguing to no end is the possibility that these very people are actively going to avoid this picture. It would have to be out of spite because I honestly can't see any other reason for them not to. They're obviously into colourful blockbusters.

Executives: "Hey folks, you enjoy Spiderman right? Obviously you do, well it's the middle of summer and they're a new Spiderman film with lots of our money behind it, and a new villian."

"Spiderman Fans" : "no!"

don't see it happening, the only people this film needs to convince is the very people that didn't give Raimi's films the time of day!

I wasn't talking about the fanbase. They'll be there with bells on. I think the movie looks kind of disappointing, but I'll see it simply because I am a Spidey fan (though if they didn't have my favorite villain, ol Lizzy, I might have skipped it).

I'm talking about the GA. The GA who, other than the youngest of children who can go to PG-13, saw the original three films in theaters. The ones who liked all three, or at least the first two and tolerated the third enough to make it cross $900 million WW. There is a lot of skepticism among them about seeing another Spider-Man movie with a whole new cast only five years later, especially when it is a remake of the origin story from only 2002. They're the ones who need to be sold on the movie.

I don't think this trailer is doing it for them. Also, "People who didn't give Raimi the time of day!" Who is that? The fans, even the ones who hated his take, saw his movies. Those who avoided all three Spider-Man movies over the last ten years are probably not going to be lured by a different actor and darker tone, because chances are they don't like superhero movies. TASM has to win over Raimi's audience at the end of the day.

The Amazing Spider-Man will struggle to $200 million. Some of you are seriously overestimating the brand-name. Either blinded by your love for the character or still in a daze (...for whatever reason...) from the just released trailer. Same thing as X-Men: First Class, Terminator: Salvation, The Incredible Hulk, Superman Returns, Batman Begins, etc.

You can't expect huge numbers when the last movie was hated and starting everything over with a brand new cast when the general public is used to a specific set of actors in those roles. Just simply saying, "Oh...but its Spider-Man! People will go!" isn't enough.

I don't think SM3 is necessarily the reason why TASM will underperform. I think if there was a SM4, it would have a chance of crossing $300 million. Certainly, $250 million like Pirates 4. I think if it wasn't a full fledged reboot the apathy wouldn't be so palpable either.

I am not saying it will necessarily struggle to $200 million. I think it can get there and all the way up to 210-220. So, it will take almost its entire run to do so, but I feel pretty comfortable with thinking it will cross that line. That's what I predicted a few weeks ago.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

he appeals to everyone

kids,adults,families,girls,teens,etc.

Same argument as Superman and Batman and both of their revival films struggled to $200 million. Little kids love the Hulk (that merchandising sells through the roof) and yet both Hulk movies under-performed.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Same argument as Superman and Batman and both of their revival films struggled to $200 million. Little kids love the Hulk (that merchandising sells through the roof) and yet both Hulk movies under-performed.

Batman especially is the most popular superhero on the planet. If he can underperform, any superhero can.

 

[Marvin]

How much worse off is the brand at this point then before it was a "name" brand. Considering how much that made I don't see how this film of the very same name will struggle to do even half those numbers?

It makes sense for say Cap, but a (decent)Spidey film crawling(see what I did there) to 200 mill. I'm not down.

There are two types of shades in this world, (just like there are two types of secrets apparently), the fanboy shades, and the hater shades lol, and only cyclops should wear shades at night.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I liked Andrew Garfield. He was the one thing in the trailer (besides some of the CGI money shots) that really worked for me. The rest of the trailer is hit-and-miss, but Garfield brought it. I honestly think he may be the better Spidey, even if he's in the worse movie.

Eh, I wish I could say the same about Andrew Garfield but I haven't been sold yet. His lines sound so flat and tedious. Hopefully the TASM will be great but my interest level for this film has always been low, and Garfield hasn't made it any easier for me.

 

[Project862006]

Same argument as Superman and Batman and both of their revival films struggled to $200 million. Little kids love the Hulk (that merchandising sells through the roof) and yet both Hulk movies under-performed.

not for batman i dont see batman or especially the current dark knight film series incarnation as something that is big on gearing toward families and little kids.Like someone like spiderman can who is a character that they use to sell alot of toy and merchandise and happy meals.

 

[Marvin]

I wasn't talking about the fanbase. They'll be there with bells on. I think the movie looks kind of disappointing, but I'll see it simply because I am a Spidey fan (though if they didn't have my favorite villain, ol Lizzy, I might have skipped it).

I'm talking about the GA. The GA who, other than the youngest of children who can go to PG-13, saw the original three films in theaters. The ones who liked all three, or at least the first two and tolerated the third enough to make it cross $900 million WW. There is a lot of skepticism among them about seeing another Spider-Man movie with a whole new cast only five years later, especially when it is a remake of the origin story from only 2002. They're the ones who need to be sold on the movie.

I don't think this trailer is doing it for them. Also, "People who didn't give Raimi the time of day!" Who is that? The fans, even the ones who hated his take, saw his movies. Those who avoided all three Spider-Man movies over the last ten years are probably not going to be lured by a different actor and darker tone, because chances are they don't like superhero movies. TASM has to win over Raimi's audience at the end of the day.

So you're talking about the general "fans" that saw and liked all three films?
Yes, that's who I was referring to as well. I consider them the summer crowd. They tend to go to big mainstream tent poles. And it seems they have an affinity for the ones of the Spider variety. To think they will actively stay home when a new spidey film opens after so many years...
it would be a sight I think.

 

[Marvin]

Batman especially is the most popular superhero on the planet. If he can underperform, any superhero can.

Batman's the most popular on the planet?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

How much worse off is the brand at this point then before it was a "name" brand. Considering how much that made I don't see how this film of the very same name will struggle to do even half those numbers?

Because the last film, Spider-Man 3, was hated across the board and this decision to reboot and retell the origin all over again (since the Sam Raimi tenure and that cast still fresh in everyone's minds) hasn't set well with anyone. That will hurt The Amazing Spider-Man if even its great.

It makes sense for say Cap, but a (decent)Spidey film crawling(see what I did there) to 200 mill. I'm not down.

Batman Begins was great. Yet it struggled to $205 million. X-Men: First Class was awesome too. Yet it's the lowest grossing X-Men installment.

There are two types of shades in this world, (just like there are two types of secrets apparently), the fanboy shades, and the hater shades lol, and only cyclops should wear shades at night.

Only shades I wear are the reality ones. Maybe one day you'll find a pair.

 

[rayc1971]

spidey will do between 250 and 300 mill domstic and atleast 400mill os.this is the one comic book movie people will rather see in 3-d.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

not for batman i dont see batman or especially the current dark knight film series incarnation as something that is big on gearing toward families and little kids.Like someone like spiderman can who is a character that they use to sell alot of toy and merchandise and happy meals.

Dude you don't pull the kind of numbers The Dark Knight pulled without families and little kids seeing it. Not to mention merchandising geared for little kids like these...

 

[Project862006]

i see your point i just cant possibly see a franchise that did'nt have a single previous film make less than 750 million WW struggle to do 200

i guess we will have to wait and see i guess