2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[FilmNerdJamie]

Battleship ain't hitting $150 million, folks.

 

[kedrell]

I'm more concerned with it's OW than it's over-all gross(which is no real threat). I want TA to get that 3rd weekend at #1. I think Battleship will open in the 30's or 40's. I'm hoping TA is still at least in the 50's by it's 3rd weekend.

 

[Iceman]

These films just need to stop being made.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Battleship ain't hitting $150 million, folks.

I think in regards to that number some posters just might be confused. But to put this in another light which may help people understand... COWBOYS & ALIENS (don't remember it having strong competition) only pulled in a hundred - with Daniel Craig, Harrison Ford, Jon Favreau, and Sam Rockwell attached. All VERY big names, it didn't even come close to 150 mill - it's not an easy number to reach.

I'm saying around 60-70 mill (probably a little higher in the very end of it's run) due to how John Carter did. Marketing didn't attract many people. It had Mark Strong, and Kitch - still didn't get that much. Kitch isn't a name. AND it had no competition. As said, any other time Battleship would do good - with this economy, I just don't see how it has a real fighting chance with AVENGERS and MIBIII breathing down it's neck. Overseas probably pulled in numbers because it wasn't facing this kind of competition.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Battleship ain't hitting $150 million, folks.

I'm getting nervous about my Battleship and Dark Shadows predictions. I'm thinking that Dark Shadows will do better than my prediction and that Battleship will only do like 85-100mil.

Battleship is doing well over seas but it's not doing well enough to be a hit if it tanks domestically. The reality is Battleship cost just as much as Carter and if it doesn't make a ****load it isn't successful no matter how much Universal's P.R department tries to convince us with these "amazing" overseas numbers.

And I still think that The Amazing Spider-Man will under perform like a mother, no matter how much people who hate Raimi's series don't want to believe it.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Battleship is doing well over seas but it's not doing well enough to be a hit if it tanks domestically.

Overseas when it came out, did it have any real competition though? Unsure, just curious to find out. Because if it had one or two weeks to itself where it was the only blockbuster before the main ones hit - that would definitely explain why it has been doing good overseas. As said, it's not the film itself that I see killing it but the release date.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Overseas when it came out, did it have any real competition though? Unsure, just curious to find out. Because if it had one or two weeks to itself where it was the only blockbuster before the main ones hit - that would definitely explain why it has been doing good overseas. As said, it's not the film itself that I see killing it but the release date.

Yes, the only reason I think it did as well as it did was because of lack of competition. Now it's going to have to deal with The Avengers, a Johnny Depp movie (I'm sure it won't do Pirates or Alice money but I think that it will do well) and a Will Smith movie. It's free ride is over, it's ****ed. I didn't even name their films because Johnny Depp and Will Smith are huge freakin Stars overseas.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Yeah, I have no idea why Paramount didn't move it. I mean, just looking at the summer calendar there is a LOT of better release dates for it. It has spectacle and that can sell, but against films with spectacle and cast? It's dead in the water, pun somewhat intended. I'd, personally, say June 15 is a somewhat safer bet and so is late August. June 15 it has Prometheus, yes but that's the more horror thriller crowd. It has a Sandler comedy, a musical. Only real competition with same demographic would be GI Joe a week later and even there - I think it could hold better.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah, I have no idea why Paramount didn't move it. I mean, just looking at the summer calendar there is a LOT of better release dates for it. It has spectacle and that can sell, but against films with spectacle and cast? It's dead in the water, pun somewhat intended.

I don't think that it was ever going to be big enough to support that budget. The cast is crap, the leading man is coming off of one of the most embarrassing bombs of the 2000's, the movie has no identity of it's own and it's has nothing in common with the thing it's based on.

It's screwed internationally because of the films I've mentioned and it's screwed domestically because of the films I've mentioned and because of the other afore mentioned problems.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think that it was ever going to be big enough to support that budget. The cast is crap, the leading man is coming off of one of the most embarrassing bombs of the 2000's, the movie has no identity of it's own and it's has nothing in common with the thing it's based on.

It's screwed internationally because of the films I've mentioned and it's screwed domestically because of the films I've mentioned and because of the other afore mentioned problems.

How big was the budget?

 

[Ultimatehero]

Basically saying I'd see it getting more than 69 mil some other time. Maybe around 100 mill. It wouldn't do good regardless, but as said, where it is now - I'm just seeing it at least saving some face rather than being completely sunk (and yeah, 'Variety' is going to have a field day). Some say that prediction is awfully low, but that's just taking it's competition, economy, and 'John Carter' into account. It really has no star power and Liam Neeson isn't really that promoted in it, plus everyone I've talked to has seen through the TF marketing idea. Any other date I wouldn't say it would be that low.

 

[chaseter]

I will guess $75-80 million domestic for Battleship. $30 something opening weekend and a domestic cume $75-80 mil.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, 80 million (with 25-30 million debut) sounds reasonable. I don't see it surviving The Avengers, Dark Shadows and MIB3 altogether.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Those predictions are **** for my predictions! lol

I like being right so in some ways I hope that it over performs....

 

[bullets]

I think Dark Shadows will be a big hit. Not like the Avengers but enough to derail Battleship.

 

[terry78]

Dark Shadows will be a sleeper. I have heard people in public actually talking about it.

 

[Iceman]

It looks more interesting to me than other recent Burton Depp collaborations.

 

[CConn]

I still ****ing say Alice is the only bad Burton/Depp feature.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't know what to think about Dark Shadows as a film but I'm nervous about my prediction because I think that it could be a crowd pleaser.

 

[Marvin]

just curious to see just how much money the special effects and action from the TF films can make on their own.

If ASM had only come out last year, it would probably have had more buzz to itself.

 

[Iceman]

What did you guys think about Snow White & the Huntsman's prospects? The trailer aired here before Avengers and I loved it.

 

[Marvin]

From what I recall it's got a bad date.

 

[Project862006]

well SWATH is the #1 movie of the summer for female viewers according to fandango i think it will do very well and it is has been marketed very good too

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that SWATH's can hit if it's as good as it's trailers suggest. Next to Prometheus I think that Huntsman's trailers have been the best.

 

[kedrell]

I think DS can open to around $50M-ish. Won't be nearly enough for #1 that weekend but I think it can get to $150M if it's good.