2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[Evil Twin]

What TDKR has going for it overseas is the China market which it didn't have last time.

If The Avengers and TDKR are really good movies, they don't have to worry about competition. I expect TDKR to be a little more front-loaded this time and The Avengers to be a bit front-loaded as well, I'm not expecting 3X multipliers out of either, but there's nothing big enough opening to suck the audience away from them.

I do think that Burton/Depp is being underestimated a little. They have fairly broad appeal, young and old, men and women. Obviously Dark Shadows isn't going to challenge $100 million opening weekend, but if reviews are good those two have a lot of goodwill that will come into play.

 

[Iceman]

I don't see ASM making that much at this point.

I see $250m but I find TASM to be one of the harder ones to predict.

 

[Selim844]

I'd be shocked if TDKR didn't make more money than Inception. I'm guessing it will make around 450m at home and between 600-650m overseas. So something like 1050-1100m is my prediction.

And I'm not sure that it'll break the OD record, but I can see it taking the OW.

 

[Iceman]

batman 400-not gonna hit 500mill avengers 375mill-spidey between 250 and 300mill ala batman begins bourne is too high 125 to 130mill- mib3 190mill-prometheus 200mill-gi joe about right-snow white and th 160 sleeper hit.

I see $450m for TDKR & Avengers. (edited) Not sure Prometheus will make that much although I'd love it to. Don't think the audience is going to be broad enough.

I'm not so sure TDKR has an easier competition than Avengers this year. All in all I'd say they probably face the same amount.



It really is turning into a number of screens game in these recent years. I still remember when Spiderman opened on 3,615 screens and hit 114mill. In a few years when that screen number is literally doubled I'm sure we'll see opening weekends all but double as well.
Hard to compare TF3 and Avengers sales at this point. There release schedules seem very different. If anything Iron Man2 would be the best comparison to get a good measure on the scale of numbers.

Yeah, if you want to be close to any of the early records you really need the screens nowadays.

 

[Iceman]

I'd be shocked if TDKR didn't make more money than Inception. I'm guessing it will make around 450m at home and between 600-650m overseas. So something like 1050-1100m is my prediction.

And I'm not sure that it'll break the OD record, but I can see it taking the OW.

I don't really put much stock in the OD record. It's all about how you manipulate the midnight showings. I've always preferred the opening weekend measure.

Overseas TDKR is going to take advantage of a much more lucrative market so I could see the figures you're saying.

 

[CashforStash]

How much money will that Brandon Routh lacrosse movie make?

This isn't a joking subject. We all know it'll beat Avatar in just pre-sale tickets alone.

 

[Marvin]

I see $250m but I find TASM to be one of the harder ones to predict.

I think, like say Ironman, all spidey needs to do is impress and it will cross 300mill. Buzz as been relatively glim compared to the other buzz monsters this year but at the same time it's been shown more intrigue than just about any adaptation last year. It's also not really shown anyone that much. It took Ironman 2 trailers and some early screenings before it really got rolling.

When the second trailer drops(today?) look for a good gauge at the buzz of the film. I think people will be surprised.

I just hope they don't do all their action beats at night(I hate that stuff).

 

[Iceman]

I think, like say Ironman, all spidey needs to do is impress and it will cross 300mill. Buzz as been relatively glim compared to the other buzz monsters this year but at the same time it's been shown more intrigue than just about any adaptation last year. It's also not really shown anyone that much. It took Ironman 2 trailers and some early screenings before it really got rolling.

When the second trailer drops(today?) look for a good gauge at the buzz of the film. I think people will be surprised.

I just hope they don't do all their action beats at night(I hate that stuff).

If it's universally well reviewed I think it can get up there but even lukewarm/good and I think $300m is instantly written off. Yeah, we haven't seen enough yet to have much of an idea how it will turn out.

 

[Marvin]

If it's universally well reviewed I think it can get up there but even lukewarm/good and I think $300m is instantly written off. Yeah, we haven't seen enough yet to have much of an idea how it will turn out.

I just don't see it getting horrible reviews.
And as redundant as a reboot may or may not be, it's also an intrigue generating endeavor.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/avengers-rules-world-and-soon-us-box-office-38291

 

[Iceman]

I just don't see it getting horrible reviews.
And as redundant as a reboot may or may not be, it's also an intrigue generating endeavor.

If it gets horrible reviews it'll struggle to get $200m! I expect 80% or so approval but I don't think it's going to be quite enough for $300m. Spidey is just not as fresh to film anymore and even this origin story is not doing something that hasn't been done before (unlike all the Nolan Bat films). It's also going to get a lot less water cooler talk than it would in a year without the two biggest comic properties. I think the sequel to this Spidey will do well though.

 

[:eek:]

2010 was the first year with two movies grossing over a billion worldwide. 2011 was the first year with three billion-dollar movies. So, could we have four this year? Avengers certainly looks like it will make it. And we have at least two other strong candidates in The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

The avengers has dark shadows w johnny depp coming up the following week, it has battle ship coming up the week after that and finally to end off may it has MIB3.

I'd say conclusively the avengers will face more competition than tdkr has opening on july 20th.

I really don't see Dark Shadows or Battleship as competetion for The Avengers. Tim Buron only grosses over $100 million with very well known properties, Dark Shadows isn't a well known property. As for Battleship, I see that as this year's Posesiden or Speed Racer, the big spectacle movie that flops, is there any buzz/interest in this movie?

 

[Marvin]

If it gets horrible reviews it'll struggle to get $200m! I expect 80% or so approval but I don't think it's going to be quite enough for $300m. Spidey is just not as fresh to film anymore and even this origin story is not doing something that hasn't been done before (unlike all the Nolan Bat films). It's also going to get a lot less water cooler talk than it would in a year without the two biggest comic properties. I think the sequel to this Spidey will do well though.

I'm inclined to agree, though I truly believe what they are doing is more fresh and exciting than had they committed to yet another installment in the Raimi stream of things.

It's strange, it feels like when you follow a particular spidey book for few years by one of your favorite creative teams, and then they go can announce a new series. You're curious but at the same time not so much. It's weird because I've seen this very thing happen (from a distance) and Ultimate Spiderman turned into one of the biggest moments in comic books ever. And it did so because even the people that said they weren't, were curious, the producers new they had a hungry young audience that may have missed out on what came before and couldn't quite find their way in, and because the story lines weren't just quality, but they were top spiderman quality.

I'm very wait and see on this one.
You're right though, if reviews are bad this one isn't critic proof. If they are as good as Begins were this one will do big business.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I'm inclined to agree, though I truly believe what they are doing is more fresh and exciting than had they committed to yet another installment in the Raimi stream of things.

It's strange, it feels like when you follow a particular spidey book for few years by one of your favorite creative teams, and then they go can announce a new series. You're curious but at the same time not so much. It's weird because I've seen this very thing happen (from a distance) and Ultimate Spiderman turned into one of the biggest moments in comic books ever. And it did so because even the people that said they weren't, were curious, the producers new they had a hungry young audience that may have missed out on what came before and couldn't quite find their way in, and because the story lines weren't just quality, but they were top spiderman quality.

I'm very wait and see on this one.
You're right though, if reviews are bad this one isn't critic proof. If they are as good as Begins were this one will do big business.

I'm taking a very wait and see approach to Amazing Spider-Man, might just wait for Netflix like I did with X-Men First Class. Some things look interesting, but overall, not really interested.

 

[Iceman]

2010 was the first year with two movies grossing over a billion worldwide. 2011 was the first year with three billion-dollar movies. So, could we have four this year? Avengers certainly looks like it will make it. And we have at least two other strong candidates in The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit.

I don't think there're any other candidates. Avengers & TDKR I've thought would get to $1BN for a long time. Hobbit I also expect has a great shot but only if it is a LOTR standard film. Don't know how it's going to turn out yet.

I'm inclined to agree, though I truly believe what they are doing is more fresh and exciting than had they committed to yet another installment in the Raimi stream of things.

It's strange, it feels like when you follow a particular spidey book for few years by one of your favorite creative teams, and then they go can announce a new series. You're curious but at the same time not so much. It's weird because I've seen this very thing happen (from a distance) and Ultimate Spiderman turned into one of the biggest moments in comic books ever. And it did so because even the people that said they weren't, were curious, the producers new they had a hungry young audience that may have missed out on what came before and couldn't quite find their way in, and because the story lines weren't just quality, but they were top spiderman quality.

I'm very wait and see on this one.
You're right though, if reviews are bad this one isn't critic proof. If they are as good as Begins were this one will do big business.

I agree but the curiosity factor would be higher if they'd waited a few more years before rebooting. At the moment it's a challenge for anyone not to feel a bit lethargic about it (it's being released around the same time as SM4 probably would have come out) unless they hated all the Raimi films I guess.

The reboot trick is something that should be used very rarely imo. It worked really well for Star Trek & felt natural. It would possibly also work well for Batman post TDKR as there will be a finality to the current trilogy (& certainly worked after B&R). But Hulk & X-Men (& probably Fantastic Four if it happens) have faced reboot related problems & lower audiences than they deserve. Then you also face the problem of what happens if the reboot doesn't work. Reboot 2 in a short space of time? It all damages the image of the property.

If reviews are as good as Begins it will make more than Begins for sure, just don't know if it's going to make more than a $100m more.

 

[rayc1971]

If it gets horrible reviews it'll struggle to get $200m! I expect 80% or so approval but I don't think it's going to be quite enough for $300m. Spidey is just not as fresh to film anymore and even this origin story is not doing something that hasn't been done before (unlike all the Nolan Bat films). It's also going to get a lot less water cooler talk than it would in a year without the two biggest comic properties. I think the sequel to this Spidey will do well though.

thats my thought as well they are going to make a killing on the sequel.fans have to trust this first film like batman begins so it wont make as much the first time around.its budget is 220mill they will be fine with between 250 and 300 million domestic.it will do about 400 to 500 os.they will let the sequel be made on those numbers.

 

[Marvin]

I'm taking a very wait and see approach to Amazing Spider-Man, might just wait for Netflix like I did with X-Men First Class. Some things look interesting, but overall, not really interested.

That's too bad, XFC was a great picture(for the most part). Better than most WB comic products.
Yes, I noticed the sig.

 

[Iceman]

In 8 days of release, THE AVENGERS int'l total of $281M has already surpassed CAPTAIN AMERICA, THOR, and IRON MAN.

So it made about $20mish overseas yesterday.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

That's too bad, XFC was a great picture(for the most part). Better than most WB comic products.
Yes, I noticed the sig.

While I covet First Class, I wouldn't say the film is better than most of WB's/DC's releases. CBMs like V for Vendetta and Watchmen outclass First Class for the most part.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I don't think there're any other candidates. Avengers & TDKR I've thought would get to $1BN for a long time. Hobbit I also expect has a great shot but only if it is a LOTR standard film. Don't know how it's going to turn out yet.

I agree but the curiosity factor would be higher if they'd waited a few more years before rebooting. At the moment it's a challenge for anyone not to feel a bit lethargic about it (it's being released around the same time as SM4 probably would have come out) unless they hated all the Raimi films I guess.

The reboot trick is something that should be used very rarely imo. It worked really well for Star Trek & felt natural. It would possibly also work well for Batman post TDKR as there will be a finality to the current trilogy (& certainly worked after B&R). But Hulk & X-Men (& probably Fantastic Four if it happens) have faced reboot related problems & lower audiences than they deserve. Then you also face the problem of what happens if the reboot doesn't work. Reboot 2 in a short space of time? It all damages the image of the property.

If reviews are as good as Begins it will make more than Begins for sure, just don't know if it's going to make more than a $100m more.

I think the key with reboots is to make the movie distinct and travel new ground.

Star Trek did that, it was very much it's own new thing, not connected to the other movies.

With the Incredible Hulk, Ang Lee's Hulk left a very bad taste in everyone's mouth and people weren't sure if this was connected to that movie or if it was it's own thing. For X-Men, they really wanted you to think it was connected, which I feel really hurt it because the continuity of that franchise is totally screwed. I think they really just needed to throw out any and all connection to the old franchise. Also for both these movies the reboot happened too close to the last movie.

Batman Begins should have made more money, I think it's a little better than The Dark Knight actually. However, the brand was damaged at that point and not everyone knew what to make of this new movie. A friend actually asked me if it was a prequel to Tim Burton's Batman when we left the movie.

 

[Marvin]

While I covet First Class, I wouldn't say the film is better than most of WB's/DC's releases. CBMs like V for Vendetta and Watchmen outclass First Class for the most part.

I wasn't aware that those two were received all that well(critically), speaking for myself I loved Watchmen.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

That's too bad, XFC was a great picture(for the most part). Better than most WB comic products.
Yes, I noticed the sig.

I wouldn't call it great, good at best. It didn't come close to X2. It should have been it's own thing, trying to link up to the other movies in the franchise really hurt it.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.superherohype.com/news/a...the-avengers-reaches-2811m-overseas-in-8-days

Walt Disney Pictures and Marvel Studios announced this morning that Marvel's The Avengers earned another $20.6 million internationally on Wednesday, May 2nd. That puts the overseas total at $281.1 million so far.
In just eight days of release, Marvel's The Avengers has already passed the total international box office for Captain America: The First Avenger ($192 million), Iron Man ($267 million) and Thor ($268 million). Iron Man 2 earned $311.5 million internationally which the film will easily pass.
The action adventure opens in North America at midnight tonight!

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I wasn't aware that those two were received all that well(critically), speaking for myself I loved Watchmen.

Not critically, but both films have a cult following regardless of what critics said. One is even getting a prequel.