2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[craigdbfan]

Sort of made sense why they did that considering the competition but I'm still incredibly disappointing I'll have to wait 9 months to see this movie.

 

[Spideyfan93]

What a joke. I was actually looking forward to this...this year. This shows just how great the movie will be...

 

[craigdbfan]

I mean the competition is incredibly strong though. Despite there being some misgivings when it comes to TASM it'll still be a strong competitor in the BO and then add TDKR to the mix as well.

I don't really blame Paramount for changing the release date.

 

[FreeRadical]

Considering that Paramount has done it before with Star Trek and Shutter Island (but with enough warning/time) it could work, but the amount spent already on the marketing e.g posters, trailers especially the SuperBowl ads...

 

[Spideyfan93]

Movie literally was supposed to release in 1 month. Dangerously close to call for this kind of news.

Literally disappointed.

 

[dark_b]

holly s.....

is this the first time somethingg like this happened? they spend an big amount of money on promotion for this summer.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Um..Captain America opened with 90 mill(or so) the very next week. The combined total of the 3 high profile releases of the past weeks doesn't even amount to even that. Harry Potter's obligatory drops not withstanding Avengers isn't facing that sort of competition. Any way you look at it.

-New audience walk in's really had some decisions to make when they look at the listings these past weeks.

Moreover, I used THG as an example and only because it's actually happened. Again last year. Captain America had to open and compete with 3D screens against what some were considering the buzz film of the decade. And it did pretty well for itself. HP pulled about 75 that week. Again more than the combined total opens of these last three high profiles.

Like I said, clear skies or no Avengers is doing big things but to simply ignore the facts is fickle. Especially when it comes to being able to accurately predict how other films will perform.

GL was one of WB's big releases and it had Michael Bay breathing down it's back. Don't talk of studios not interfering with one another...Pirates had Hangover..etc

Your only valid competetion argument is Potter and Captain America. Green Lantern was a total dud, it's failure had nothing to do with Transformers, it was cause the movie sucked. Pirates and Hangover had two different audiences, Pirates is family entertainment, Hangover was an R-rated comedy.

I usually work off my memory, but I just remembered the last time I checked I was looking at weekly totals and not actually weekend tally's. My bad. either way Studios still do it and They did it with Cap and HP. It was a bad situation and everyone knew it was going to be(just check the history of this very thread) but it happened none the less. Avengers simply didn't deal with such a thing.

I'm not surprised Marvel likes this spot as of late, studios seem to want to dump their crap here. Speed Racer...I still remember that line being empty as I was walking into IronMan that week.

I'm sure conflicts have occurred in the past too. Probably around the holiday dates.

note: still surprised at how low those Cap/Potter number actually were.

First off, Marvel has owned the first weekend in May for a decade now, I don't know why you said "as of late". Second, Avengers dealt with and demolished three movies studios had high hopes for.

WB that they'd strike gold again with Dark Shadows like they did with Alice in Wonderland and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. However, they forgot Tim Burton's hits are based on well known properties like Alice and Charlie, Dark Shadows was a cult property and if the vampire doesn't sparkle, the teen girls aren't interested.

I'm sure whoever did The Dictator was hoping for a hit along he lines of Borat, but people have grown tired of Sacha Baren Cohen. Borat was the right movie at the right time, I don't think he'll ever have that success again.

Battleship was supposed to be a hit from the studios perspective. However it looked like a mess from the beginning, it looked like a bland summer overly loud blockbuster. I think trying to tie it to the board game actually hurt the movie, since no one understood why their were aliens in a Battleship movie.

I really do believe that if MIB3 opened in Dark Shadows spot Avengers could've beaten it. I really don't think Will Smith has the box office juice he once did, Hancock opened to $62 million 4 years ago and the last Men in Black movie opened 10 years ago. I can see it opening around the same numbers as Hancock at best. I mean is anyone really interested in seeing a new Men in Black? I see it opening big enough to beat Avengers this weekend, but that's only because Avengers is going to be in it's 4 week of release.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Last significant news like this was when Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince got delayed from November 2008 to Summer 2009.

But that news came over 3 months before release. And it made more logical sense than this decision. This is preposterous because of the timing but had they done this in...March or April...it wouldn't have been so bad.

 

[Lighthouse]

They made this decision one month before release? I smell massive reshoots. I have no doubt they will convert it to 3D, but you don't make this decision so close to the release date if the movie isn't a complete disaster.

 

[Lighthouse]

Last significant news like this was when Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince got delayed from November 2008 to Summer 2009.

But that news came over 3 months before release. And it made more logical sense than this decision. This is preposterous because of the timing but had they done this in...March or April...it wouldn't have been so bad.

Studios were still recovering from the writers strike, and WB realized they had very few tentpoles for the next summer. This movie has no such excuse.

 

[dark_b]

yeah this will have a lot reshoots. there is no way that they changed their mind only because of 3D.

 

[FreeRadical]

holly s.....

is this the first time somethingg like this happened? they spend an big amount of money on promotion for this summer.

I think it happens to smaller films, but a big tentpole blockbuster film a month before release? Paramount says it's because 3D = profit, but the reality is that Spider-man and TDKR are out after, so G.I Joe's legs would have been short.

 

[Lighthouse]

I think it happens to smaller films, but a big tentpole blockbuster film a month before release? Paramount says it's because 3D = profit, but the reality is that Spider-man and TDKR are out after, so G.I Joe's legs would have been short.

They knew this information a long, long time ago. If they were scared really scared about that, they could have shifted the release date far in advance.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I don't really count Harry Potter because it was moved for different reasons. WB knew it was going to be a big hit so they needed it to bail out a summer in which they didn't have anything else.

The last time I remember a big budget tentpole getting moved like this at the last minute was The Alamo with Billy Bob Thornton, which got moved from Christmas to March. It ended up being a massive flop.

 

[Spideyfan93]

I was looking forward to this...but now fears are arising.

The movie may indeed suck ass even with the Rock and Bruce Willis.

 

[Lighthouse]

You know, I had a long post that was going to be here which I spent some time on, but it's now gone because of the interruptions.

RIP GI Joe Post.

 

[Tony Stark]

Oh my gosh, they just killed the franchise (not that I ever though it had much life). No one will see it now. Worst mistake ever by a movie studio.

 

[Figs]

You can take G.I Joe Retaliation out of the competition this year.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/g-i...office/#utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The fact that they'll now have to spend just about double the money on promotion since they'll have to redo it next year before release, there's not a chance in hell this makes it's money back. Not to mention the money they're going to spend on making it 3D. Not sure how much that costs, but it's more money being thrown at this movie.

 

[Doctor Jones]

The studio looked at Avengers and said, "Well **** man!"

 

[FreeRadical]

They knew this information a long, long time ago. If they were scared really scared about that, they could have shifted the release date far in advance.

After The Avengers beating Battleship at the box office, Paramount might not be so confident with Joe.

 

[Octoberist]

Again, there are more to the '3D' conversion with GI Joe. Rumors from Playlist states that Paramont wants Channing Tatum to be available for reshoots in the Fall, hence that 9 month window.

 

[jacobed]

So they're taking a movie that generally looked pretty awesome, delaying it and adding 3d as well as more Tatum. Geez I can't think of any other ways to make it worse

 

[amazingfantasy15]

So they're taking a movie that generally looked pretty awesome, delaying it and adding 3d as well as more Tatum. Geez I can't think of any other ways to make it worse

Really? I thought the movie looked pretty bad, but adding more scenes with Tatum or 3D won't improve it.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Ted's already taken its slot.

 

[mclay18]

Not the worst decision on the GI Joe delay, now it actually has a shot at making some serious cash.

The competition in March 2013 isn't quite as fierce as late June/July 2012 is, but there's at least 1-2 major films per weekend. Elysium, Oz prequel, Percy Jackson 2, Carrie, Jack the Giant Killer and The Host.

I'm sure there's room for all three movies, but placing G.I. Joe 2 against The Host and The Marriage Counselor on the same weekend is a potentially stupid move. Those three movies will draw in a huge mix of people, but it'll eat into each other's earnings.

Paramount has a better chance of bypassing a 3D conversion and releasing G.I. Joe 2 in a less busy period like September. If it went to September 7th opposite Gangster Squad, it would make a killing. And it wouldn't lose 3D screens to Resident Evil 5 the week after.