2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 2

[craigdbfan]

Sheesh calling me a troll because I don't think Spaniard s are white?

Can't anyone say anything unpopular on the internet without people calling you a troll in a blatant attempt to get someone they disagree with banned by getting the anti-troll lynch mob going?

Isn't that funny? But I must have a baseless argument because someone shouted ”troll”.

You're not trolling just showing an incredibly large misunderstanding when it comes to race.

It's funny that arbitrary continental lines decide race in Europe but appearance decides race in Latin America.

That defines nations not race. Race is determined by different haplogroups through DNA which is taught in basic biology in HS.

So you're telling me Penelope Cruz and Antonia Banderes are white?

Are they aware of this?

I'm sure they are but are you?

Do they no longer teach about the Human Y-Chromosome haplogroups in high school biology anymore or basic anthropology lessons in universities or community colleges? (this is a rhetorical question, so don't answer)

I'm legitimately surprised that someone doesn't consider a native Spaniard as white.

I'd implore you to find out more about Caucasians. This is the box office thread so that's the last this will be on the matter.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Well I'll just ditch this thread since I've been branded a troll and I know this spineless tactic to get opinionated people banned sadly works.

Have fun winning debates by slandering people's character and hoping the mods buy into it.

Opinionated? What you guys were debating about isn't opinionated. It's a matter of fact (and biology), and Malone did take it back by saying it whiffed of trolling, but adios.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well I'll just ditch this thread since I've been branded a troll and I know this spineless tactic to get opinionated people banned sadly works.

Have fun winning debates by slandering people's character and hoping the mods buy into it.

I'm not trying to get anyone banned. I was just purely shocked at how uninformed you were on issues of race that i assumed you were just trying to rile people up.

Either way this topic somehow was on whether hardy could play bane and it's been settled.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Since a mod confirmed I'm not trolling I'll just say if you have scientific proof of something post a link to reputable source.

You can skip all the namecalling and condescending remarks while IRONICALLY labeling the unpopular opinion a troll.

I endured plenty of insults and condescension when I respectfully disagreed yet I'm on chopping block for banning.

So next time avoid the snobbery and bullying and post a wiki link.

Sincerely,

A sensitive troll

 

[Marvin]

darn I missed it. oh well. This discussion reminded me of an interesting discussion I followed a while back. Posting and enlightening link and moving on.

I read in a news paper on my morning commute yesterday, that avengers is meeting with and putting away huge competition. This simply isn't true. It's been met with bombs, not to diminish what it's done(records), but if say Hunger games were to open where Dark Shadows did, TA would have been at number one for a single week. Something similar happened with HP8 if I recall.

Comp has a lot to do with positions a film holds.

Not to mention BS is maybe he biggest bomb of the year next to JC lol.

 

[The Morningstar]

You say it's been met with bombs. Or have they been bombs because of Avengers?

If Avengers didn't exist, wasn't released in this spot, would the likes of Dark Shadows and Battleship been more successful? I'd say... yes. Especially Battleship. Battleship is like a poor mans Avengers, no one in their right mind would choose it over Avengers.

You say Avengers should have only held the number 1 spot for a week. You never considered that Avengers is simply a better, more popular movie that deserved the number 1 spot more than Dark Shadows?

Fact is Avengers had phenomenal WOM, critical acclaim. It made those other films bomb. It's not successful because those films bombed.

 

[marvelman2006]

If Avengers didn't exist, wasn't released in this spot, would the likes of Dark Shadows and Battleship been more successful? I'd say... yes. Especially Battleship. Battleship is like a poor mans Avengers, no one in their right mind would choose it over Avengers.

You say Avengers should have only held the number 1 spot for a week. You never considered that Avengers is simply a better, more popular movie that deserved the number 1 spot more than Dark Shadows?

Fact is Avengers had phenomenal WOM, critical acclaim. It made those other films bomb. It's not successful because those films bombed.

I highly doubt one movie can turn others into bombs. Dark shadows was horribly marketed and the first trailer didnt even come out until what late feb? Battleship looked horrid from day one and I would like to think it was gonna be a dud domestically no matter what. Avengers deserved to be number 1 for more then one week like hunger games did but there have been other movies in the past that deserved that success too but were met with stiff competition. I expect men in black 3 to do big numbers this week and atleast be number 1. Its got Will Smith who has yet to have a summer blockbuster bomb and it has the same kind of appeal to the ga that avengers did.

I say this weekend will be:

Men in black 3 - $110 million (most will be 3D revenue)

Avengers- $45-$50 million

 

[The Morningstar]

Avengers isn't exactly one movie though is it? It's a phenomenon that's been breaking pretty much all records put in front of it.

Avengers just completely steam rolled all comers.

 

[Marvin]

You say it's been met with bombs. Or have they been bombs because of Avengers?

If Avengers didn't exist, wasn't released in this spot, would the likes of Dark Shadows and Battleship been more successful? I'd say... yes. Especially Battleship. Battleship is like a poor mans Avengers, no one in their right mind would choose it over Avengers.

You say Avengers should have only held the number 1 spot for a week. You never considered that Avengers is simply a better, more popular movie that deserved the number 1 spot more than Dark Shadows?

Fact is Avengers had phenomenal WOM, critical acclaim. It made those other films bomb. It's not successful because those films bombed.

Who said it didn't deserve the spot over DarkShadows? When I said it's been met with bombs that implies it's superiority.

All I said is unlike some other films it's been met with films that suck, weather or not TA exists or not. I also said that's it's amazing second week number would have been simply outclassed by the likes of this years very own THG. However if it did hold on to it's spot in the face of THG, that would be something to behold.

ASM get's to face what many would consider the most A list franchise in the game right now in it's 3rd(?) weekend, TA is facing what again...Not saying TA wasn't destined to be a better 3rd weekend number than ASM but things need to be put in perspective. Looking at the climate before it's release and the comp after, almost any film this summer would do benefit in TA's release date.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

darn I missed it. oh well. This discussion reminded me of an interesting discussion I followed a while back.

Go here for a possible debate continuation on the proper thread.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=383033&page=29

 

[Tony Stark]

darn I missed it. oh well. This discussion reminded me of an interesting discussion I followed a while back. Posting and enlightening link and moving on.

I read in a news paper on my morning commute yesterday, that avengers is meeting with and putting away huge competition. This simply isn't true. It's been met with bombs, not to diminish what it's done(records), but if say Hunger games were to open where Dark Shadows did, TA would have been at number one for a single week. Something similar happened with HP8 if I recall.

Comp has a lot to do with positions a film holds.

Not to mention BS is maybe he biggest bomb of the year next to JC lol.

Sorry that's a moot point. The point is they would NEVER release hunger games and Avengers within a week of one another because it would hurt both films. I mean come on if that were the case why didn't WB just put up TDKR the week after Avengers instead of DS?

Yeah HP did come in no 2 the next week, but it also had a 72% drop, which has been common for most fan novels converted to movies. CBM's generally have a 50% drop, Spider-man being the lone exception.

No doubt there was weak competition, but considering Avengers is the first film in over a decade to stay no. 1 for 3 weeks in May. That doesn't magically happen, and wouldn't have happened without the 207M opening either.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Okay, here are my opinions on 3D:

- If it is the director's choice to film it in 3D, I have no problems with it. Personally I can watch movies in 3D no problem (I don't care about glasses). But most of time I watch movies in 3D since it gets forced more of the time than not, especially when it is post-converted (I just don't care about shooting it in 3D).

- As much I love Nolan's movies, the fact that he isn't using 3D is not what make me respect him at all, but I respect him because of far he has come. Think about it, he tells Warner Bros. that he doesn't want to use 3D and they don't force it on him. He's become part of an exclusive club that has 100% creative control with his movies. I guess what I'm saying is that other directors should not be looked down upon becuase their using 3D and Nolan isn't, because Nolanites tend to do that.

- And I don't think The Avengers opening weekend should be looked down upon because of 3D. Think about it. Even if there was a $40 million dollar boost because of 3D it would still be around the record.

Exactly. Nolan isn't better because he doesn't use 3D. It's his choice and it's fine. At least he can make a choice and has the control. Scott, Cameron, Jackson, and Scorsese are in the same kind of creative positions that Nolan is in. Hell, the ironic thing is that the four of them have been working in the movies longer than Nolan and are willing to try out this new technology. They have made the choice to move forward with 3D and to advance film.

Both are admirable. The thing to admire here is that they have choice and see the strengths in their own ways of shooting. Although Nolan's arguments for not using 3D are more for him to not shoot in it. He's kind of just picking out. Like 2D is actually already 3D. That doesnt' really make much sense. 3D is depth. 2D doesn't give depth. He means more that the people on screen aren't paper and we can see their dimensions. But there is still no depth to the environment.

And the darknesss thing really doesn't make any difference either. It's just another little agrument against 3D that you really don't think about it when you watch it. Not for a single second was I thinking during the 3D showing of Avengers, "This is darker than the 2D, the experience isn't as good." Besides, I don't know how long Nolan and Pfister are going to sing their same old songs against 3D since the technology will be evolving.

With Avatar, the reason it made so much was because on top of the groundbreaking 3D, it was released to a weak December schedule and took advantage of the usually terrible winter season of January and February to gross a s**tload of money. I don't think a summer movie will ever pass Avatar unless they're released and July or August and takes Avatar of the waning movie season.

Yes again.

Well said. Like, Ridley Scott is shooting with 3D cameras for Prometheus, and he says they are great. He's got one of the best visual eyes in the business. He's the master of "mise en scene", world building with visuals. Frankly, better than the likes of Nolan. So when Scott says 3D isn't just a gimmick, I tend to take him at his word.

Nolan does deserve a lot of respect for sticking to his principles though. But he shouldn't become small minded and a traditionalist just for the sake of it.

Yeah I agree. I mean at elast Nolan was willing to try it for Inception. He decided it didn't work for it and that's fine. But I think 3D has benefits that 2D doesn't and I would like to see it keep evolving.

Bane evolved past being simply a Bat villain long ago. He was more of an anti hero. Until DC rebooted anything that is.

He was fantastic in Gail Simone's Secret Six run. He kicked his addiction to venom and went to Gotham to help stem the tide after Batman supposed death out of sheer respect.

Oh, I forgot about Secret Six. I mean strictly as Batman's foe. Over the years though, he's still only been known to break Batman's back and that's it.

 

[Raiden]

Sorry that's a moot point. The point is they would NEVER release hunger games and Avengers within a week of one another because it would hurt both films. I mean come on if that were the case why didn't WB just put up TDKR the week after Avengers instead of DS?

Yeah HP did come in no 2 the next week, but it also had a 72% drop, which has been common for most fan novels converted to movies. CBM's generally have a 50% drop, Spider-man being the lone exception.

No doubt there was weak competition, but considering Avengers is the first film in over a decade to stay no. 1 for 3 weeks in May. That doesn't magically happen, and wouldn't have happened without the 207M opening either.

Exactly. Of course if THG had opened a week after TA did, it will affect TA's second week box office, but then again THG won't have had the kind of opening it did back in April either. That's why studios would try to schedule their blockbusters away from each other, so it will be mutually beneficial for both movies. Therefore, it's a moot point on the What If? scenario, because every movie studio wants to maximize their profit. Furthermore, what TA has accomplished doesn't have anything to do with the competition, or the lack thereof. Its great reviews, strong WOM, and lower-than-average drops in the following weeks confirm that.

 

[Doctor Jones]

So are we thinking Avengers makes $25 mil or so this weekend or a bit more with the holiday weekend?

 

[Tony Stark]

So are we thinking Avengers makes $25 mil or so this weekend or a bit more with the holiday weekend?

I posted this on the Avengers board. for the holiday weekend it should do from 35-38 for Fri-Sun and 42-45M for the holiday, depending on if it trends to IM1, IM2, or Thor.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Those are good numbers right there. That'll make it past $500 by this weekend then.

The holiday gives people a chance who weren't able to see it.

 

[Marvin]

Sorry that's a moot point. The point is they would NEVER release hunger games and Avengers within a week of one another because it would hurt both films. I mean come on if that were the case why didn't WB just put up TDKR the week after Avengers instead of DS?

Yeah HP did come in no 2 the next week, but it also had a 72% drop, which has been common for most fan novels converted to movies. CBM's generally have a 50% drop, Spider-man being the lone exception.

No doubt there was weak competition, but considering Avengers is the first film in over a decade to stay no. 1 for 3 weeks in May. That doesn't magically happen, and wouldn't have happened without the 207M opening either.

Um..Captain America opened with 90 mill(or so) the very next week. The combined total of the 3 high profile releases of the past weeks doesn't even amount to even that. Harry Potter's obligatory drops not withstanding Avengers isn't facing that sort of competition. Any way you look at it.

-New audience walk in's really had some decisions to make when they look at the listings these past weeks.

Moreover, I used THG as an example and only because it's actually happened. Again last year. Captain America had to open and compete with 3D screens against what some were considering the buzz film of the decade. And it did pretty well for itself. HP pulled about 75 that week. Again more than the combined total opens of these last three high profiles.

Like I said, clear skies or no Avengers is doing big things but to simply ignore the facts is fickle. Especially when it comes to being able to accurately predict how other films will perform.

GL was one of WB's big releases and it had Michael Bay breathing down it's back. Don't talk of studios not interfering with one another...Pirates had Hangover..etc

 

[Tony Stark]

Um..Captain America opened with 90 mill(or so) the very next week. The combined total of the 3 high profile releases of the past weeks doesn't even amount to even that. Harry Potter's obligatory drops not withstanding Avengers isn't facing that sort of competition. Any way you look at it.

-New audience walk in's really had some decisions to make when they look at the listings these past weeks.

Moreover, I used THG as an example and only because it's actually happened. Again last year. Captain America had to open and compete with 3D screens against what some were considering the buzz film of the decade. And it did pretty well for itself. HP pulled about 75 that week. Again more than the combined total opens of these last three high profiles.

Like I said, clear skies or no Avengers is doing big things but to simply ignore the facts is fickle. Especially when it comes to being able to accurately predict how other films will perform.

GL was one of WB's big releases and it had Michael Bay breathing down it's back. Don't talk of studios not interfering with one another...Pirates had Hangover..etc

Cap opened to 65M, so you're wrong again. HP plummeted to 72% to 47M. Cap dropped 60% the next week when opening against Cowboys and Aliens. That's why studios don't put high profile releases back to back like that. Also Dark Shadows opened better than Speed Racer.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cap opened to 65M, so you're wrong again.

And Harry Potter didn't make 75mil that weekend, it made 47mil.

Boxoffice Mojo is a click away so I don't understand getting the figures that wrong?

 

[Marvin]

Cap opened to 65M, so you're wrong again. HP plummeted to 72% to 47M. Cap dropped 60% the next week when opening against Cowboys and Aliens. That's why studios don't put high profile releases back to back like that. Also Dark Shadows opened better than Speed Racer.

And Harry Potter didn't make 75mil that weekend, it made 47mil.

Boxoffice Mojo is a click away so I don't understand getting the figures that wrong?

I usually work off my memory, but I just remembered the last time I checked I was looking at weekly totals and not actually weekend tally's. My bad. either way Studios still do it and They did it with Cap and HP. It was a bad situation and everyone knew it was going to be(just check the history of this very thread) but it happened none the less. Avengers simply didn't deal with such a thing.

I'm not surprised Marvel likes this spot as of late, studios seem to want to dump their crap here. Speed Racer...I still remember that line being empty as I was walking into IronMan that week.

I'm sure conflicts have occurred in the past too. Probably around the holiday dates.


note: still surprised at how low those Cap/Potter number actually were.

 

[Liam_H]

WB intended Speed Racer to be a big hit, they thought kids would flock to it like they did Cars. If the competition was better this year it certainly would have cut into TA gross a bit but we just don't know to what extent. But its all moot at this point.

 

[Raiden]

WB intended Speed Racer to be a big hit, they thought kids would flock to it like they did Cars. If the competition was better this year it certainly would have cut into TA gross a bit but we just don't know to what extent. But its all moot at this point.

We also must remember that while it may seemed like DS was never going to be a big hit right now, WB had treated like it was going to be a blockbuster because of Tim Burton and Johnny Depp, and their last collaboration (Alice in Wonderland) grossed over 1 billion WW. I'm sure the fact that it only made less than $30 mil in its OW surprised them, and not in a good way.

 

[Marvin]

We also must remember that while it may seemed like DS was never going to be a big hit right now, WB had treated like it was going to be a blockbuster because of Tim Burton and Johnny Depp, and their last collaboration (Alice in Wonderland) grossed over 1 billion WW. I'm sure the fact that it only made less than $30 mil in its OW surprised them, and not in a good way.

probably true

not to mention all the june releases last year

 

[Tony Stark]

I usually work off my memory, but I just remembered the last time I checked I was looking at weekly totals and not actually weekend tally's. My bad. either way Studios still do it and They did it with Cap and HP. It was a bad situation and everyone knew it was going to be(just check the history of this very thread) but it happened none the less. Avengers simply didn't deal with such a thing.

I'm not surprised Marvel likes this spot as of late, studios seem to want to dump their crap here. Speed Racer...I still remember that line being empty as I was walking into IronMan that week.

I'm sure conflicts have occurred in the past too. Probably around the holiday dates.


note: still surprised at how low those Cap/Potter number actually were.

That's fine, I just don't remember anyone complaining about TDK's weak competition when it was destroying B.O. records. If you look at budgets and advertising dollars, Avengers had more to deal with than TDK. I mean it's not like people didn't know Battleship was coming out, they had teaser trailers out last year.

 

[FreeRadical]

You can take G.I Joe Retaliation out of the competition this year.

http://www.deadline.com/2012/05/g-i...office/#utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter