2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 3

[MadVillainy]

DACrowne do you think after romance vampires that they'll move on to romance aliens (like they tried with I Am Number Four), werewolves or anything of that sort?

 

[DACrowe]

Vampires and werewolves are kind of synonymous. That goes back at least as far as the original Dracula novel (the titular character could talk to wolves and turn into a giant wolf). It's the same as today as vampires have also been "romanticized" with Twilight, True Blood, The Vampire Diaries, and MTV's own Teen Wolf series (basically Twilight: the Show). Meanwhile, much like LMI and Fright Night, the actual werewolf movie we got in this period (The Wolfman) flopped at the box office. Though, it wasn't very well written, so....

Aliens? Probably. I'm sure they'll try again one day, albeit that is less like the others and is not so much gothic as sci-fi. Aliens can encompass ET or Independence Day. Just this summer we saw aliens in The Avengers, Battleship, MIB3 and Prometheus. So, I don't think it will ever work as well as they're not nearly as defined in popular culture.

 

[DACrowe]

http://www.hulu.com/watch/107500

This video sums it up, in my opinion.

 

[MadVillainy]

I will say in defense of Vampire Diaries and Teen Wolf they did start off seeming like Twilight rip offs but became good shows on their own that actually has well acted moments, humor, and good storytelling; although the love angle in both of them isnt that good. I still like them and think they are good shows but then again theyre just shows.

I think if they ever want another successful romanticized teen supernatural werewolf story they need to handle it like how most superhero films handle romance arcs and make them the B plot and not the main focus

 

[rayc1971]

so now the thin man has been put on hold because of the budget! not only the lone ranger now the thin man too i guess depp needs huge budgets for every movie he does now.i liked the old thin man flicks they are real fun.i think they should be done in the style of guy richies sherlock holmes flicks they could rock.but i dont see why they need a huge budget for it.

 

[Call Me Darkman]

Vampires are most definitely a fad that's going away.

Vampires have always been popular. And there has always been vampire movies and TV shows. Granted, because of Twilight, they are now more popular than usual, but vampires will never entirely go away.

 

[Shifty]

There's a limit though. If you make 15 good comic films or 15 good war films a year they will be less successful than if you make say 4. People want variety as much as watching the best material. I agree neither vampire or comic films are a fad that is going away but overproduction of nearly any genre leads to a reduction in wow factor. Imagine if we had 10 excellent Batman films this year. People would be satisfied watching maybe half of them and then would probably rather watch lesser films (as long as still good) of other genres.

We saw that last year with X-Men:First Class. It was the best comic book film last year but it's the fifth X-Men film after two disappointing ones and it didn't offer anything really new except the 1960s setting. Plus audiences were aware of Green Hornet, Priest, Thor and knew Green Lantern was coming out along with Captain America and Cowboys & Aliens.

There are 9 comic book films coming out in 2013 and 5 are already scheduled for the first half of 2014.

 

[MadVillainy]

kinda OT: But why do you guys think that movie Fright Night flopped last year. It had a good cast, got good reviews, decent audience reception, had a decent release date. I still dont understand why it did as bad as it did

 

[DACrowe]

Vampires have always been popular. And there has always been vampire movies and TV shows. Granted, because of Twilight, they are now more popular than usual, but vampires will never entirely go away.

This particular vampire craze we're in is a fad. Vampires have always been part of the popular imagination, but in film other than in the 1930s with the earliest of Bela Lugosi Dracula films and the early 1990s that saw Coppola's Dracula and Interview with the Vampire, vamps are usually regulated to cult status or B-films. The Hammer Draculas, Fright Night, Lost Boys, alll the Universal sequels to Dracula are all B-movies that appealed to a niche audience. Vampires being as big in the mainstream right now as superheroes and reality TV is a fad that will end.

 

[matrix_ghost]

At this point i seriously doubt if TDRK will make less then 400 million domestic and 1 billion WW.
Meaning that 2012 will most likely go into the record books as the year when 3 or possibly 4 movies hit 400 million domestic.
Hunger Games
Avengers
The Dark kNight Rises
Hobbit.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

kinda OT: But why do you guys think that movie Fright Night flopped last year. It had a good cast, got good reviews, decent audience reception, had a decent release date. I still dont understand why it did as bad as it did

1. It was released around the same time as The Help and Rise of the Planet of the Apes, two movies with huge legs.
2. It was also released the same time as Conan the Barbarian, another Rated R movie.
3. There's little to no mass interest in dark vampire stories. Look at the Vampires that succeed. Everyone of them has more to do with love and sex than the actual appeal of vampires.
4. It had no star power. Colin Farrell, and Anton Yelchin aren't stars people flock to theaters for.
5. It was releaed an August, a month that's known for slowing down in terms of Box Office Numbers.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Vampires being as big in the mainstream right now as superheroes and reality TV is a fad that will end.

I wouldn't put Vampires in the same category as Superheroes. Superheroes has had movies that break even that aren't the Twilight movies.

 

[rayc1971]

1. It was released around the same time as The Help and Rise of the Planet of the Apes, two movies with huge legs.
2. It was also released the same time as Conan the Barbarian, another Rated R movie.
3. There's little to no mass interest in dark vampire stories. Look at the Vampires that succeed. Everyone of them has more to do with love and sex than the actual appeal of vampires.
4. It had no star power. Colin Farrell, and Anton Yelchin aren't stars people flock to theaters for.
5. It was releaed an August, a month that's known for slowing down in terms of Box Office Numbers.

yeah and totall recall has colin farrell as the lead and a 200mill budget didnt they see alexander lol

 

[DACrowe]

I wouldn't put Vampires in the same category as Superheroes. Superheroes has had movies that break even that aren't the Twilight movies.

Superheroes are more popular because they have more four quadrant appeal while vampires either tend to appeal to a specific female audience (Twilight, the TV shows right now) or a horror/genre heavy young male fanbase (the UW films, most vampire movies since the 1950s) which is a niche group. That or nobody at all.....

Superheroes while dominated by the young male audience, it is less niche among that group and also appeal greatly to children and thus adults who have to take those children and are more tolerated as date movies by women than Twilight may be by men.

But they're both popular right now and in the mainstream. I think superheroes have more longevity, but all fads or "film movements" eventually come to an end.

 

[Project862006]

DACrowne do you think after romance vampires that they'll move on to romance aliens (like they tried with I Am Number Four), werewolves or anything of that sort?

we will have to look forward to romance zombies tho
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1588173/

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Superheroes are more popular because they have more four quadrant appeal while vampires either tend to appeal to a specific female audience (Twilight, the TV shows right now) or a horror/genre heavy young male fanbase (the UW films, most vampire movies since the 1950s) which is a niche group. That or nobody at all.....

Superheroes while dominated by the young male audience, it is less niche among that group and also appeal greatly to children and thus adults who have to take those children and are more tolerated as date movies by women than Twilight may be by men.

But they're both popular right now and in the mainstream. I think superheroes have more longevity, but all fads or "film movements" eventually come to an end.

I wouldn't call Superheroes a fad. For better and for worse, superhero movies have been getting made for on a consistent basis for 35 years. Everytime we call it dying, a movie comes, makes a lot of money and the industry is back on track.

It happened with Batman 89, to Spider-Man, Iron Man and TDK, to the Avengers and TDKR, every time that there's been a "down" period with superhero movies, they've come back and proven to be viable again.

 

[Marvin]

since avengers everything has either been a bomb, a let down or an under performer.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

since avengers everything has either been a bomb, a let down or an under performer.

Not true, Madagascar 3 and Prometheus (for a Rated-R film) did quite well.

 

[terry78]

Basically every movie after Avengers that doesn't make a billion bones in the timeframe it did will be deemed lesser financially.

 

[Marvin]

Basically every movie after Avengers that doesn't make a billion bones in the timeframe it did will be deemed lesser financially.

No basically every film that receives garbage reviews and poor word of mouth will be deemed what it's deemed. Not since summer 2008 have I personally seen a summer perform in such a way.

As for prometheus, as "good" as it's doing, I can only imagine would "good" it would be doing if it was received any better. I admittedly haven't been following film as closely as I usually do(I'm busy this year) but it does seem as though Prometheus is the butt many a joke post release.

I suppose Mad is doing well. Gotta give it up for that market, they treat their own well.

But seriously, if it's not DarkShadows one week, it's Battleship the next, or Men in Black or Snow White...even Lincoln is "under performing"

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Basically every movie after Avengers that doesn't make a billion bones in the timeframe it did will be deemed lesser financially.

Sadly that's the trend I'm starting to see around these parts. I will say this though, May had weak titles.

On a similar note, SWATH didn't exactly make a killing either but it didn't bomb either.

 

[TheOnlyOmega]

No basically every film that receives garbage reviews and poor word of mouth will be deemed what it's deemed. Not since summer 2008 have I personally seen a summer perform in such a way.

As for prometheus, as "good" as it's doing, I can only imagine would "good" it would be doing if it was received any better. I admittedly haven't been following film as closely as I usually do(I'm busy this year) but it does seem as though Prometheus is the butt many a joke post release.

I suppose Mad is doing well. Gotta give it up for that market, they treat their own well.

But seriously, if it's not DarkShadows one week, it's Battleship the next, or Men in Black or Snow White...even Lincoln is "under performing"

Prometheus isn't the kind of movie that makes a billion, it will make alot of money through its DVD/BluRay. Even if everyone thought it was the greatest thing ever it wouldn't have made much more.

MiB and Snow White have both made pretty good money. Dark Shadows and Battleship however...

 

[Quasimod0]

Seems like brave is making good money too

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Both MiB and Snow White under performed, but Madagascar, Brave, and Prometheus will make good money.

 

[terry78]

Right now the only sure things regarding movies doing their budget and some change are superhero flicks and animated flicks. Those will usually do decent business, even if it has to wait until it gets to home. WB and Sony are not going to **** around regarding marketing after what Avengers did, they want some of that pie.