2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 3

[Mrs. Sawyer]

MD's been beating that dead horse for weeks.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

At this point, he's beating compost...

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Adjusted Gross Unadjusted Gross Release
1 Thunderball UA $592,416,000 $63,595,658 12/21/65
2 Goldfinger UA $525,096,000 $51,081,062 12/22/64
3 You Only Live Twice UA $284,359,600 $43,084,787 6/13/67
4 Moonraker MGM $221,848,700 $70,308,099 6/29/79
5 Die Another Day MGM $218,465,500 $160,942,139 11/22/02
6 Tomorrow Never Dies MGM $213,136,600 $125,304,276 12/19/97
7 From Russia, with Love UA $211,172,400 $24,796,765 4/8/64
8 Diamonds Are Forever UA $210,333,800 $43,819,547 12/17/71
9 Casino Royale Sony $201,395,200 $167,445,960 11/17/06
10 The World Is Not Enough MGM $196,842,100 $126,943,684 11/19/99
11 GoldenEye MGM $193,279,200 $106,429,941 11/17/95
12 Quantum of Solace Sony $185,721,200 $168,368,427 11/14/08
13 Octopussy MGM $170,703,900 $67,893,619 6/10/83
14 The Spy Who Loved Me UA $166,350,800 $46,838,673 7/13/77
15 Live and Let Die UA $158,300,800 $35,377,836 6/27/73
16 For Your Eyes Only MGM $156,157,300 $54,812,802 6/26/81
17 Dr. No UA $149,707,000 $16,067,035 5/8/63
18 Never Say Never Again WB $139,374,000 $55,432,841 10/7/83
19 On Her Majesty's Secret Service UA $127,023,900 $22,774,493 12/18/69
20 A View to a Kill MGM $112,281,000 $50,327,960 5/24/85
21 The Living Daylights UA $103,680,900 $51,185,897 7/31/87
22 The Man with the Golden Gun UA $88,822,600 $20,972,000 12/18/74
23 License to Kill UA $69,159,400 $34,667,015 7/14/89

This is the list of the adjusted grosses of the James Bond franchise. You'll notice Casino Royale is somewhere in the middle and less than its immediate predecessor. I'll also draw attention to the difference between You Only Live Twice (the last Connery film) and On Her Majesty's Secret Service (the first without Connery). They paid Connery a record contract to get him back for Diamonds Are Forever, and it paid off in terms of gross. This is notable because Diamonds Are Forever stank in comparison to On Her Majesty's Secret Service, but audiences simply didn't accept anybody but Connery at that point. None of the other Bonds ever did get close to Connery at his peak.

EDIT: Looking at that list, audiences really didn't like poor Timmy Dalton.

 

[Liam_H]

MD kind of reminds of iJackSparrow over at BoxOffice. Though not as extreme.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

A billion WW? Surely you jest.

It ain't happening.

Most people underpredicted Avengers by at least 400-500 million.

ASM's worldwide gross is being underpredicted by 300-400 m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

MD's been beating that dead horse for weeks.

Wait so people who down play ASM's box office prospects over and over aren't beating a dead horse?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This is the list of the adjusted grosses of the James Bond franchise. You'll notice Casino Royale is somewhere in the middle and less than its immediate predecessor. I'll also draw attention to the difference between You Only Live Twice (the last Connery film) and On Her Majesty's Secret Service (the first without Connery). They paid Connery a record contract to get him back for Diamonds Are Forever, and it paid off in terms of gross. This is notable because Diamonds Are Forever stank in comparison to On Her Majesty's Secret Service, but audiences simply didn't accept anybody but Connery at that point. None of the other Bonds ever did get close to Connery at his peak.

EDIT: Looking at that list, audiences really didn't like poor Timmy Dalton.

But if you look at Bond movies made since 1980, Casino Royale made the top 3.

Not bad for a divisive reboot.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

MD kind of reminds of iJackSparrow over at BoxOffice. Though not as extreme.

That doesn't make me wrong. t:

 

[mclay18]

Most people underpredicted Avengers by at least 400-500 million.

ASM's worldwide gross is being underpredicted by 300-400 m.

Apples and oranges. The Avengers was a highly-anticipated sequel to four separate Marvel film franchises -- and for a lot of people, it delivered on all counts. ASM isn't any of those things, save for the Marvel connection.

You don't see any of that with ASM. If it's as well-received as last year's Rise of the Planet of the Apes -- it'll have some staying power before TDKR bulldozes everything in its path. But there's not a lot of wannasee buzz with this film right now.

Don't be surprised if it doesn't make $150M within the first five days.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Most people underpredicted Avengers by at least 400-500 million.

ASM's worldwide gross is being underpredicted by 300-400 m.

The Avengers' successes have no merit here. TASM is a completely different movie, and hype has been low for the film. Going further, not only is the public still divided on the reboot but it's going up against TDKR (the Four-Time Heavyweight Champion).

There's no way in hell that Spidey will make enough in two weeks to reach a billion. The ceiling for TASM is 700 million. It'll be lucky to make that, in my opinion.

 

[Liam_H]

That doesn't make me wrong. t:

Ahh, so I guess you do frequent those boards. I just browse from time to time but him and BKB IS HULK are extreme enough I know them quite well.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Apples and oranges. The Avengers was a highly-anticipated sequel to four separate Marvel film franchises -- and for a lot of people, it delivered on all counts. ASM isn't any of those things, save for the Marvel connection.

You don't see any of that with ASM. If it's as well-received as last year's Rise of the Planet of the Apes -- it'll have some staying power before TDKR bulldozes everything in its path. But there's not a lot of wannasee buzz with this film right now.

Don't be surprised if it doesn't make $150M within the first five days.

It doesn't need 150 m opening week to make 1 billion WW..

But if it does 150 it will be icing on the cake.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The Avengers' successes have no merit here. TASM is a completely different movie, and hype has been low for the film. Going further, not only is the public still divided on the reboot but it's going up against TDKR (the Four-Time Heavyweight Champion).

There's no way in hell that Spidey will make enough in two weeks to reach a billion. The ceiling for TASM is 700 million. It'll be lucky to make that, in my opinion.

I didn't say ASM would make 1.5 billion.

I'm saying it will make half a billion less in fact.

What they do have in common is that they were both terribly underpredicted.

It's funny now people act like Avengers making 1.5 billion was a given but that prediction would've gotten someone laughed off the boards 3 months ago.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I didn't say ASM would make 1.5 billion.

I'm saying it will make half a billion less in fact.

What they do have in common is that they were both terribly underpredicted.

It's funny now people act like Avengers making 1.5 billion was a given but that prediction would've gotten someone laughed off the boards 3 months ago.

Bringing The Avengers into this debate doesn't help your case. Clearly, TASM is not The Avengers.

The fact is The Avengers had Dark Shadows and Battleship as competition. TASM won't have that luxury. It'll be facing the most anticipated film of the summer two weeks later.

It's not going to make a billion. You can take that to the bank.

 

[DACrowe]

Casino Royale was a reboot that used not only new actors but it was grounded in realism and it told Bonds origin . The Bond fanbase was divided over it too.

Some fans were pissed Brosnan was let go, but overall must moviegoers didn't view CR as a reboot until they saw it. It was "the new Bond guy's movie" to the GA which has brought in a larger audience ever since Moore proved Bond could work without Connery in TSWLM (GE is the only one since 1977 that had a lot to prove to the GA).

ASM is no more of a ”cynical cash grab” than any other Hollywood blockbuster.

I'm talking about hype and public perception. Whatever you personally think of ASM (doing the origin again does ring hallow to me), it has had mostly bad buzz and little hype because it's a reboot/remake/rehash of the origin in SM1 in the trailers. This summer with its poor economy has seen Americans be more discerning with movies that looked like empty money-grabs with Battleship bombing and MIB3 underperforming, even though the latter had good reviews and decent WOM.

The so called back lash against MIB3 resulted in a 10% drop in box office from MIB2.. A 10% drop would be considered a success for ASM. A 140-150 m first six days would make that a very real possibility.

Adjusted for inflation MIB2 made $260 million domestic and Men in Black made $432 million adjusted. MIB3 will not cross $200 million domestic and will barely pass MIB's unadjusted WW gross from fifteen years ago. There is a definite lack of interest.

 

[:eek:]

Top 15 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1424,3 million
2. The Hunger Games $661,2 million
3. Men in Black 3 $549,3 million
4. The Intouchables $350,5 million
5. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
6. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,8 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $318,1 million
8. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $309,7 million
9. Wrath of the Titans $301,9 million
10. Battleship $298,3 million
11. John Carter $282,7 million
12. Snow White and the Huntsman $253,6 million
13. American Reunion $229,4 million
14. Prometheus $229,1 million
15. Dark Shadows $210,5 million

 

[Tony Stark]

If On Stranger Tides can make a billion WW, I think TASM could. I don't expect it to make more than 250 domestic, but the international audience is going to eat up TASM.

I'm not saying it should be expected, but I wouldn't totally write it off. We are seeing where foreign box office is becoming a huge force and 5 years ago Spider-man 3 took in nearly 550M foreign, so with inflation and 3D boost, 800-900 is not that much of a stretch.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

So great news for Brave, not so much for Abe Lincoln.

 

[Liam_H]

For the type of movie it is AL:VH did okay. Its not a bomb.

 

[DACrowe]

Depends on what the budget really is. If you believe Fox that it only cost $70 million (not counting counting marketing) it disappointed but it's not totally bombing. But I believe the $120 million floating around is probably more accurate. In which case, this is indeed a bomb.

Honestly, if this movie opened in February, March or April or even October, it'd be doing much better.

 

[Liam_H]

You can argue the counter programming angle as to why they would release this now. But then again all signs point to a dump when they certainly could've picked a better slot.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Even with the obviously fake 69 m budget AL:VH is a bomb.

But considering the budget is likely well over 100 m it's a huge bomb.

Did they really think an R rated vampire movie set during the civil war was going to make over 300 m worldwide?

 

[Ultimatehero]

I highly doubt the budget was higher than what is reported. 'Losers' cost 25 mil and the first 'Sherlock Holmes' cost 90 mil. This film seemed to fall in between those in terms of what was shown and production values. They used the same sets continually. There were no big name actors which usually costs a lot of money. Some shots they went old school with. While yes they did have some cool action sequences, the effects they did use have been around for a long time and a lot of what they did was more practical than CGI. The trailers might make it look big, but a lot of it was scaled back.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Safe House had a budget of 85 m with no elaborate sets and costumes or CGI.

No way AL:VH cost less.

 

[Ultimatehero]

SAFE HOUSE shot in expensive exotic locations. Had a huge car chase. Not to mention the whole sports arena, unless you think that kind of setting with that many extras isn't expensive? Had Denzel Washington, Ryan Reynolds, not to mention named supporting cast. Yeah, dude, plenty of ways that movie would cost more. Production value of SAFE HOUSE was WAY higher than Vampire Hunter.