2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 4

[chaseter]

I thought it would have had a weekend in the 70s-80s but I guess people are still skiddish about the shooting.

 

[dark_b]

intersting that we never had a Nolan batman movie where the movie had a fair chacne at the BO. with BB it was Batman&Robin ,with TDK it was Ledger and now the shooting.

 

[rayc1971]

Shawn Levy producing who did those Museum movies for Fox. They thought they'd get Stiller back and put in a bunch of all-stars, pay them a lot and then get them to just riff the whole movie. Turns out a screenplay may have been needed.

you forgot the aliens lol

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Really? Surely you thought it was better than Insomnia.

I actually disagree with it being a safe movie. Doing a superhero film where the hero is broken and trapped in a prison literally called the Pit for half an hour of the film is pretty ballsy. Also, TDKR is the only film I can think of to ever really try to make a logical and plausible case for a modern American city becoming a post-Apocalyptic ruin run by a warlord who has somehow managed to keep the US government out while he goes French Revolution on the wealthy. Granted, some may not think Nolan succeeded in making that scenario feel authentic. But it was a far more ambitious and risk-taking approach to the superhero genre than BB was, which at the end of the day is your standard origin formula. I think it is the best superhero origin movie ever. But it still follows the formula of SM1 and STM and films like IM1 an Captain America would follow after it.

Agreed.

Shawn Levy producing who did those Museum movies for Fox. They thought they'd get Stiller back and put in a bunch of all-stars, pay them a lot and then get them to just riff the whole movie. Turns out a screenplay may have been needed.

Too bad they forgot to make it actually funny, haha. And putting it a week after TDKR didn't help either.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Who said it wouldn't surpass $400 million domestic??? What we're doubting is $500 million domestic. 2 weeks ago, most people thought it would surpass Dark Knight's $533 million domestic gross.

One or two notable haters mostly. One guy actually predicted it would make less than ROTK did with 377m.

The Big friday drop scared a few people too but the saturday uptick showed how the olympics had a big effect.

If it wasn't for the olympics telecast the film would likely be in the 70's range for its 2nd weekend. So this does bode well for legs in upcoming weekends.

 

[dark_b]

the word of mouth is positive for TDKR here in europe. but for now noeone is going crazy over the villain and the ending. and people were screaming(positive) for Joker and the Gordon speech in TDK.

can this movie make 1 billion? i hope WB will not think that they could make more money with bad 3d conversion.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Its gonna do $1 billion.

 

[dark_b]

good. we need movies in 2D to make a lot money.

i am afraid that i will not be able to watch MOS in 2D.

 

[danoyse]

One of my friends just posted on Facebook that she went to see TDKR today but the theater was shut down 40 minutes in because the roof in another part of the theater collapsed. She said she nearly had a heart attack when they shut down the movie and the cops came in, and people were commenting that they think the movie is cursed and they're waiting for DVD at this point. Oy...

 

[Doctor Jones]

....

This can't be life.

 

[Bruce Malone]

...and we are living in the 21st century.

 

[danoyse]

On the bright side, I've seen at least three other people post updates who saw it incident-free and loved it, and I'm babysitting my nephew so that my sister and brother-in-law can see it this weekend. They can't wait.

 

[:eek:]

Sunday (7/29) Update: 20th Century Fox reports that Ice Age 4 added another $49.4 million internationally this weekend, giving it a $514 million total overseas. The animated flick's worldwide total to a staggering $629 million

 

[Project862006]

The Amazing Spider-Man (released July 3rd) has made $242 million domestic and $412 million internationally for a total of $654 million.

 

[Marvin]

I wonder if a shooting of this nature would have hurt TDK.

ASM is going pretty good(though only half as good domestically as the original). I thinking it will pass 250 at the very least.

 

[kedrell]

Still puts ASM at the top of the heap as far as reboots go.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

and ASM should make another 40 m worldwide without China and 70-90 m in China.

It could still beat SM2's 783 m WW.

 

[KangConquers]

Is it just me, or has this summer turned out fairly weak at the box office? It seems like we've had more bombs than usual, and tons of under-performers.

 

[Project862006]

well

ASM
Avengers
TDKR
TED
Snow White and The Huntsman
MIB III
Madagascar 3
Ice Age:Continental Drift

all did very solid at the BO

 

[Shifty]

Is it just me, or has this summer turned out fairly weak at the box office? It seems like we've had more bombs than usual, and tons of under-performers.

It definitely has been a weaker summer compared to the last few summers. The economy, the amount of 3D films, studios avoiding TKDR and TASM, studios under estimating TA and of course just another summer of crappy films.

For the final month The Bourne Legacy, Total Recall, The Expendables 2 and The Campaign are likely to cross over $100 million with only The Bourne Legacy at a chance over $200 million unless The Campaign or Total Recall over performs.


Summer 2007
10 films over $100 million
03 films over $200 million
04 films over $300 million
17 films total

Summer 2008
17 films over $100 million
03 films over $200 million
01 film over $500 million
21 films total

Summer 2009
10 films over $100 million
03 films over $200 million
01 film over $300 million
01 film over $400 million
15 films total

Summer 2010
07 films over $100 million
03 films over $200 million
02 films over $300 million
01 film over $400 million
13 films total

Summer 2011
14 films over $100 million
02 films over $200 million
02 films over $300 million
18 films total

Summer 2012
06 films over $100 million
03 films over $200 million
01 film over $300 million
01 film over $600 million
11 films total

 

[MadVillainy]

how is Total Recall tracking

 

[El Hombre Gato]

One guy actually predicted it would make less than ROTK did with 377m.

To be fair, ROTK grossed $1 Billion worldwide at a time when that was extremely rare. And its $377 million domestic gross is $487.3 million when adjusted for inflation. ROTK was definitely a bigger success than TDKR.

 

[Bruce Malone]

That's not the point though he actually thought TDKR would make less than 377m...

 

[Marvin]

TR is going to beat TDKR this weekend.

 

[dark_b]

does anyone think that TDKR's BO is boring? its not bombing and its not breaking records. its just making......money. its a batman movie making a lot money. this is it

i was expecting more suprises and twists