2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[:eek:]

Worldwide I still think Hobbit could beat Avengers. It's been nine years since Return of the King grossed 1,1 billion. And Hobbitt obviously have the advantage of higher ticket prices, 3D, and the fact that markets like China have expanded rapidly since RotK was released.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,7 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1075,3 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $849,9 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $752 million
5. The Hunger Games $686,5 million
6. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $638,8 million
7. Men in Black 3 $624 million
8. Brave $515,6 million
9. Ted $434,1 million
10. Prometheus $401,9 million
11. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
12. The Intouchables $387,6 million
13. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $337,1 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. The Expendables 2 $285,6 million
19. John Carter $282,8 million
20. Dark Shadows $238,7 million

 

[:eek:]

Well... we found out why the Chinese box office numbers were extra late this week. There was an accounting error in Looper's previously reported numbers and it took time to sort things out. Instead of making $23 million to $25 million, it made about $6 million. That's actually still really good and better than it performed here, relative to the size of the two markets, but it wasn't a monster hit. The wide gap in the initial reported number and the final figure is an embarrassment, but hopefully it will spur China to build the infrastructure needed to collect box office data faster and more accurately. China might be the most important international market, but studios can't invest money into making movies aimed more at a Chinese market if they can't trust the box office numbers they get. The other numbers we had were accurate leading to a total weekend haul of $22.85 million on 2,506 million in 17 markets. It wasn't a hit in all of them, as it only managed third place in Brazil with $955,000 on 332 screens. The film is just starting its international run, so it is hard to predict where it will end up, but so far most signs are very positive.

 

[Liam_H]

That $23-25 million figure for China was supposedly reported at dollars but some are saying its in Yuan which is a huge difference. Sony so far has backed that claim that its in actual dollars

 

[mclay18]

If Taken 2 performs similarly to Hangover 2, it could possibly top Paranormal Activity 3's $52.6M opening weekend record for October.

I think it's going to perform in the high $40M range, maybe even scratch the $50M mark. But studios are starting to realize the potential of October for a big moviegoing month as well as other off-season months like February and March.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[CConn]

Duckies Weenie under-performed. I'm sure it's way better than HT.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Two flops in a row for Burton. That hasn't happened to him since Ed Wood and Mars Attacks.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Two flops in a row for Burton. That hasn't happened to him since Ed Wood and Mars Attacks.

I think people are starting to tired about him basically doing the same thing. Big Fish had his style but it was also a very dramatic movie. After that he basically went back into full Burton mode. For a while it went okay with Sweeney Todd and Alice in Wonderland but afterwards when you get the same every time , it loses it's charm.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It isn't that it is the same thing, it is that the last few family films Burton has done just haven't been very good. Now that he has made quite a good one, it is suffering for his lack of quality recently. It was like trying to tell people Batman Begins was going to be good after the last couple of Batman movies.

Sweeney Todd was excellent, but it wasn't targeted at families either.

 

[Liam_H]

Frankenweenie being released after Hotel Transylvania didn't really help either considering the latter is such a hit. Even if it attracted the older crowd they would have lost a lot of them to Looper or Taken 2.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Dark Shadows and Frankenweenie suffered from poor release dates. Dark Shadows was released a week after The Avengers. Frankenweenie was released a week after Hotel Transylvania. It was a very bad decision by Warner Bros and Disney. But this could all become irrelevant once Awards Season arrives. Dark Shadows is definitely a contender for Art Direction, Costumes, Make-Up, and MAYBE even music. Frankenweenie is currently the frontrunner for the Animation Oscar.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Movie Moan Holiday 2012 Box-Office Prediction show is up.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,8 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1076,3 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $859 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $752,1 million
5. The Hunger Games $686,5 million
6. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $667,3 million
7. Men in Black 3 $624 million
8. Brave $515,8 million
9. Ted $451,3 million
10. Prometheus $401,9 million
11. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
12. The Intouchables $391,7 million
13. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $341,1 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. The Expendables 2 $285,9 million
19. John Carter $282,8 million
20. Dark Shadows $238,7 million

 

[Tacit Ronin]

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,8 million

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Skyfall I think going to open huge for a Bond movie. I'm thinking $90 million+.

 

[terry78]

Eh, maybe not that big. Bond is a big property but it's never been like a massive blockbuster sans a few of them.

 

[Quasimod0]

Over 400 million ahead of the pack aint bad. t:

 

[Liam_H]

I'd say around $80 million opening for Skyfall and if the quality is up there then it'll be the first one to crack $200 million domestic total.

 

[CConn]

Something tells me it won't be that good.

 

[rashad]

Something tells me it won't be that good.

Early word begs to differ.

 

[GoldCrest]

I'd say around $80 million opening for Skyfall and if the quality is up there then it'll be the first one to crack $200 million domestic total.

I don't think so. Bond's movie has never been that big over here in the U.S. compared to other countries.

 

[Liam_H]

If it can open to $80 million which is certainly doable getting to $200 millin domestic is very possible. That's only a 2.5 multiplier. Reception on Quantum of Solace was okay and it was able to reach that.

 

[:eek:]

Sunday (10/14) Update: Taken 2 added $41 million internationally from 6,314 screens in 35 markets this weekend. The international total is now $132.8 million. Taken 2 has amassed $219.6 million worldwide.
2008's Taken made $78.9 million internationally and $145 million domestically for a total of $223.9 million worldwide. It's safe to say that Taken 2 will easily surpass its predecessor by next weekend.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

Skyfall won't open that big. My guess is $40-60 million.