2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

That would be amazing if that happened. I'm not even mentioning the word out of fear that I'll jinx it. :woot:
 
It has to do at least $250 million domestic to even have a chance at that though. Not guaranteed but certainly seems more likely than a couple of months ago.
 
With the recent trend, most movies that open usually do make over $250, and considering that it has great word of mouth, I believe it definitely can make over $250 million domestically now.
 
By the way, I've been on fire.

Any predictions for Wreck it Ralph? I'm thinking $45-$52 million.
Skyfall I think going to open huge for a Bond movie. I'm thinking $90 million+.

Since Wreck it Ralph made $49 million and Skyfall include IMAX preview screenings is projected to make exactly $90 million, I want a cookie. :o
 
Very good news for skyfall. But however with lincoln and twilight this friday it will be very difficult for atleast this comng weekend to make a big haul. Atleast after twilight part 2 that is the end of it.
 
It'd be great to see Skyfall hit $900m.

I wasn't being negative towards Breaking Dawn. It'll end up with at least $300M domestic and $750-800M worldwide -- a big windfall for Lionsgate and Summit Entertainment.

I think Twilight has maxed out it's audience, except for the first one they've stuck rigidly close to $700m WW

New Moon - $709m
Eclipse - $698m
Breaking Dawn 1 - $705m

I don't think the finale will do any better.
 
So how will Breaking Dawn and Lincoln effect Skyfall? With those two, you have completely different demographics so each should make what they're expected to. Skyfall's WOM is dependent.
 
So how will Breaking Dawn and Lincoln effect Skyfall? With those two, you have completely different demographics so each should make what they're expected to. Skyfall's WOM is dependent.


dont underestimate the power of big crowds of teen girls turning out for those movies turning older people away do to longer lines and more crowded theaters. Its natural for big releases like those to drown the movies around it out. the last one buried happy feet two the one before it the last airbender. Its not impossible for skyfall to continue to do business but Its a tough climb form here on out. I know plenty of people who will not go anywhere near a theater whenever a tyler perry/ twilight movie is released because the theaters by us are just too packed for those showings.
 
twilight won't affect Skyfall that much. I think Skyfall will have a nice hold.
 
Yeah like I said I would love for nothing more then skyfall to make $80 million plus again and twilight to make $20 but It will be interesting with lincoln, twilight and skyfall all in the same weekend, someone has to take a dip.
 
A majority of the audience for skyfall was over 25 that usually bodes well for legs but lincoln is gunning for that exact same demo as they are both the counter programming to twillight.
 
I think it'll end up around $43 million give or take but probably $38 million at worst.
 
As someone else has said- different demographics. If you'd say Die Hard opens this week... alrighty then, but Twilight? Guys stray as far away from Twilight (for the most part). So all it would lose is teen girls and some women, which I don't think was EVER a crucial part of Bond's income anyways...

Lincoln, maybe, but even there... I don't see how they connect. History buffs, real life events, and drama fans. But still... that's not Bond's key demographic really either.
 
Im saying this weekend:


Breaking Dawn part 2: $140 million

Skyfall: $39 million

Lincoln: $26 million
 
Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,8 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1080,7 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $872,4 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $752,2 million
5. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $734,3 million
6. The Hunger Games $686,5 million
7. Men in Black 3 $624 million
8. Brave $534,4 million
9. Skyfall $531,5 million
10. Ted $498,9 million
11. The Intouchables $405,2 million
12. Prometheus $402,5 million
13. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $348,8 million
15. Taken 2 $348,8 million
16. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
17. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
18. Battleship $302,8 million
19. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
20. The Expendables 2 $300,4 million
 
As someone else has said- different demographics. If you'd say Die Hard opens this week... alrighty then, but Twilight? Guys stray as far away from Twilight (for the most part). So all it would lose is teen girls and some women, which I don't think was EVER a crucial part of Bond's income anyways...

Lincoln, maybe, but even there... I don't see how they connect. History buffs, real life events, and drama fans. But still... that's not Bond's key demographic really either.

If anything, both Skyfall and Lincoln will only fight over older males, but that's it.
 
'Breaking Dawn - Part 2' Off To Strong Start Overseas

on November 15, 2012

Some early international numbers are coming in for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2. It's all good news:
Deadline.com reports that Breaking Dawn - Part 2 has already grossed $1.8 million in France, $264K in the Netherlands, $362K in Sweeden and $531K in Belgium. Part 2 is outpacing Part I in all those territories.
THR.com reports that Part 2 is also off to a strong start in Italy with $2.8 million on its first night. That's enough to push Part 2 past The Avengers for the distinction of 2012's best opening day in Italy.
 
Twilight gets extra income from those people that accompany the teen girls and women.
 
I don't know how big the market will be for a movie like Lincoln. It won't won't get my money, I'll leave my theater money for spectacle, not backroom politicking.
 
Since studios have now started to include the 10pm showings my "weekend" prediction for Twilight will be a little bigger than it would have been.

1. Twilight BDP2: 150mil
2. SkyFall: 40mil
3. Wreck it Ralph: 21.5mil


And Lincoln should do about 10mil. I think that people could be all politicked out after the elections though so I'm not sure what it's long term prospects will be. We will see what people are in the mood for.
 
Even though Twilight will do massive business, I could definitely still see Skyfall having a great hold this weekend, maybe even around 50-55 mil. No doubt with those two and Wreck It Ralph, this weekend will be one for the record books.

Also, is anyone else as surprised as me at Taken 2's surprisingly solid staying power. I was expecting it to drop like a rock after the huge opening based off the wretched WOM. At this point it may even outgross or match the original, which I did not think was even possible that long ago.
 
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