2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Iceman]

Nice for Skyfall. The buzz in UK is very high for a Bond film. I know quite a few people who have seen this who would never even have heard of Quantum of Solace. Looking forward to seeing it tomorrow.

 

[:eek:]

Sunday (11/4) Update: Sony reports that Skyfall's international total is now $287 million after taking in $156 million this weekend.

 

[Liam_H]

For a non 3D movie Skyfall is a monster in the UK. I wonder how high this will go next week.

 

[chaseter]

The US hasn't had an event movie in a couple of months so I would guess somewhere in the mid to high 70 million opening weekend. Might make it into the 80 million but I doubt it.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm gonna go as high as $80 million.

 

[CConn]

How many people are there in the UK? Like 3 million? Times that by 100, and you have America.

 

[redhawk23]

Dude there are like 60 million or so people in the UK...

 

[terry78]

How does that island hold them all?

 

[Bruce Malone]

Well there will be less if scotland separates...

 

[Superhero 101]

So how much can skyfall make? 600-700million ww?

 

[Liam_H]

I think easily blows past that, maybe even $900 million WW.

 

[matrix_ghost]

That's way too big IMO.
Both Casino Royale and QoS didn't hit 600 million WW whereas movies that have hit that mark ( 900 million WW) either made alot of money in the states or outside the states.
With strong reviews , more markets as well as IMAX , i do think Skyfall will go past 600 million .

 

[Micromind]

Can it reach one bil. ? that would set a new record for Bond, it may even be regarded as a franchise equivalent to Batman.

 

[Gianakin_]

I highly doubt it'll reach a bill. But I'd be ecstatic if it did.

 

[marvelman2006]

I would love for a bond movie especially with craig to hit the billion mark but at the end of the day its still bond and Im not sure how much the general public is looking foward to it here in the US given its been 4 years and bad WOM on the previous movie. I mean if taken 2 can make the money it did then there is no excuse the new bond film cant.

 

[Micromind]

Here is a comparison of James Bond Vs Sherlock Holmes Vs Bourne , none of them have crossed 600 mil. (worldwide) so far.

(I know it has nothing to do with Holmes or Bourne but still, it gives some ideas about the amount of money this franchise is making)


Casino Royale
Domestic: $167,445,960 28.2%
+ Foreign: $426,793,106 71.8%
-------------------------------
= Worldwide: $594,239,066

Quantum Of Solace
Domestic: $168,368,427 28.7%
+ Foreign: $417,722,300 71.3%
-----------------------------
= Worldwide: $586,090,727

Sherlock Holmes
Domestic: $209,028,679 39.9%
+ Foreign: $315,000,000 60.1%
--------------------------
= Worldwide: $524,028,679

Sherlock Holmes:A Game of Shadows
Domestic: $186,848,418 34.4%
+ Foreign: $357,000,000 65.6%
----------------------------
= Worldwide: $543,848,418

The Bourne Ultimatum
Domestic: $227,471,070 51.4%
+ Foreign: $215,353,068 48.6%
------------------------------
= Worldwide: $442,824,138

The Bourne Legacy
Domestic: $113,161,000 42.6%
+ Foreign: $152,300,000 57.4%
---------------------------
= Worldwide: $265,461,000

It looks like SH is more popular in US as compared to Bond and Bourne franchise is Not doing that well.

 

[Liam_H]

That's way too big IMO.
Both Casino Royale and QoS didn't hit 600 million WW whereas movies that have hit that mark ( 900 million WW) either made alot of money in the states or outside the states.
With strong reviews , more markets as well as IMAX , i do think Skyfall will go past 600 million .

I think there is a good chance it will make that or approach it with just international numbers. Bond's history doesn't support it but this movie is doing great business everywhere, not just the UK. It also has many key markets left to open in.

 

[Moridin]

I could easily see it hitting $700m WW, maybe more. It's got great buzz heading into the US release. In less than 2 weeks it's already made two thirds of Casino Royales total international take.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If Bond films were as popular domestically as they were overseas then you'd be seeing this potentially hit a billion or near.

Right now the projections for skyfall are ranging from $185-200m+ box office domestic.

 

[CConn]

I honestly think the only thing that keeps Bond from being that popular in the US is a lack of consistent quality. It seems like for every four Bond movies, you always end up with one great one, two mediocre ones and one really awful one. And I think that sours the US GA.

 

[CConn]

Dude there are like 60 million or so people in the UK...

I was being sarcastic.

 

[marvelman2006]

I honestly think the only thing that keeps Bond from being that popular in the US is a lack of consistent quality. It seems like for every four Bond movies, you always end up with one great one, two mediocre ones and one really awful one. And I think that sours the US GA.

agreed and also not to mention the fact that the past 2 movies havent had the easiest plot to follow. I garuntee you if they simplified the plot to the point that most GA could follow easily and have a big name cast as the villian and make tons of action and less talking then it would be huge. Just look at most comic book movies they all make money because the quality continues to improve.

 

[Micromind]

I believe that there is an upper limit as to how much money can be made just on the basis of actio alone.

I mean look at franchises such as Mission Impossible.

Mission Impossible:Ghost Protocol= Worldwide: $695 mil

MI 3: = Worldwide: $395 mil.

Other franchises like Bond, Bourne, Sherlock Holmes, Expendables were not able to earn even 600 mil. so far.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,8 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1078,3 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $869,7 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $752,2 million
5. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $728,8 million
6. The Hunger Games $686,5 million
7. Men in Black 3 $624 million
8. Brave $534 million
9. Ted $496,2 million
10. The Intouchables $405,1 million
11. Prometheus $402,5 million
12. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
13. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $346,3 million
14. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
15. Taken 2 $336,9 million
16. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
17. Battleship $302,8 million
18. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
19. The Expendables 2 $289,6 million
20. Skyfall $289,1 million

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm predicting 70-75mil opening weekend for Bond now. At first I thought nah but now I changed my mind. I'm unsure of a 200mil finish though as Bond always seems to disapoint North American box office watchers. I'll say this much, this movie has the best chance of hitting that magical number with these stunning reviews and the lack of big action films. It's going to have to survive Twilight which is a lock to open with over 125mil. I'm thinking 150mil right now.