2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[chaseter]

I love how Raimi.has one of the worst ideas ever with the Vulturess and you guys say it was to get out of his contract. Just like how everything bad about sm3 was Sony. It makes me laugh, its also pathetic

Vulturess wasn't Raimi's idea so how about you go...I dunno...google before you come in swangin'. It makes me laugh, it's also pathetic.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1461,6 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $749 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $733,5 million
4. The Hunger Games $684 million
5. The Amazing Spider-Man $680,4 million
6. Men in Black 3 $620,1 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $523,3 million
8. Snow White and the Huntsman $388,9 million
9. The Intouchables $361 million
10. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
11. Brave $343,4 million
12. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $331,7 million
13. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
14. Prometheus $309,9 million
15. Battleship $302,8 million
16. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
17. Ted $296 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $233,6 million

 

[rashad]

Top 20 worldwide

2. The Dark Knight Rises $749 million

TDKR is at $777.8 million (Foreign Update: 407m)

 

[enterthemadness]

Oh please, Bernie from up start distributer--long time B grade dvd action flicks production sister production company of NU IMAGE--isn't a flop.

$8.8M in limited release is good.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=bernie.htm

 

[Tony Stark]

Hobbit is the only film now with a shot at no. 1. Although I think the 3 hr run time it's sure to have may keep it from being no.1, but it's going to be close.

Although "technically" no matter what Avengers will be the highest grossing film of 2012, as whatever the hobbit does, it will not cross 1.5B before Dec 31, 2012.

 

[Shifty]

Oh please, Bernie from up start distributer--long time B grade dvd action flicks production sister production company of NU IMAGE--isn't a flop.

$8.8M in limited release is good.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=bernie.htm

With a $6M budget? It needs $12M+ to break even with a bare bones marketing/distribution budget.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1704573/

 

[Road Warrior]

Looks like Bourne Legacy has knocked Batman from the #1 spot.

 

[Tony Stark]

Looks like Bourne Legacy has knocked Batman from the #1 spot.

DKR will be no 3 this weekend.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Vulturess wasn't Raimi's idea so how about you go...I dunno...google before you come in swangin'. It makes me laugh, it's also pathetic.

The story that I always heard at the time was that Raimi wanted to do Black Cat, but that Sony executives didn't think that a sexy female cat burglar that dressed like a cat would ever be accepted by audiences so they wanted him to make Felicia Hardy into the Vulturess instead.

 

[matrix_ghost]

TDRK will hit 400 million somewhere next week.
So that makes 3 movies so far that have made 400 million at the BO out of which 2 are in 2-d.
Not too bad.
And while some movies definately underperformed , i'd say that certain flicks like Ted definately show that if you make a quality movie audiences will come.

 

[Bruce Malone]

First year in box office history i believe with 3 films all topping 400m.

 

[Evil Twin]

Sounds like The Bourne Legacy, without Matt Damon, is going to end up doing as well as could reasonably be hoped for. Good for Jeremy Renner.

Solid numbers for The Campaign and Hope Springs as well.

Variety of films plus the Olympics winding down seems like a good formula for getting people into the theater.

 

[Shifty]

Deadline:

‘Bourne Legacy’ Knocks Off Batman For #1; ‘The Campaign’ Overperforms For #2; ‘Dark Knight Rises’ #3, ‘Hope Springs’ #4; Late Night Shows Still Emptier Than Usual
By NIKKI FINKE

SATURDAY 9 AM, 4TH UPDATE: Universal’s domestic weekend estimate for The Bourne Legacy keeps dropping, from $48M midday Friday to $44M last night to now $41M this morning. And Friday’s figure has fallen from $15M to $14M. Which is cause for concern. Especially for a reboot that cost $125+M, is opening much lower than the last two original Bourne movies with Matt Damon, and has a star like Jeremy Renner without a proven track record at the international box office. Although the studio went into this weekend lowballing expectations around $35M, the real figure which Universal wanted was $40M-$45M. MORE

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM, 3RD UPDATE: All Friday I hadn’t heard Hollywood this encouraged about the domestic box office since The Avengers or Ted opened. Let’s face it: every studio this summer is making the vast majority of money off the international grosses. So to have North America back in business was helping mop up mogul flopsweat. But strong matinees and early evening shows gave way last night to emptier late shows, unfortunately. “Daytime business was fabulous. But everything after 10 PM wasn’t,” a studio exec tells me. “Even exhibition is saying that fewer people are going to late night shows.” Theories abound, like Aurora or the Olympics. The result is that some of Friday’s earlier revved-up forecasts slowed. This may still be a rare ‘up’ total weekend of $150M.

Look for my fuller analysis before noon Saturday. But briefly here’s the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:

1. Universal’s gamble is paying off - not just launching PG-13 The Bourne Legacy (3,745 theaters) without Matt Damon or the title character, but also delaying a week to avoid a head-to-head battle with Sony Pictures’ Total Recall. This latest high-octaine Bourne actioner – written and directed by Tony Gilroy and starring Jeremy Renner – looks to open better than the studio expected with $15M Friday and $44M for the weekend. Sure that’s less than the franchise’s second and third installments The Bourne Supremacy ($52.5M in 2004) and The Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3M in 2007). And even The Bourne Legacy‘s $542K from midnight showings was less than The Bourne Ultimatum‘s $797K midnights. But this is one of those rare series that earned more with each outing after 2002′s The Bourne Identity debuted to $27.1M. And consider this: how many franchises can continue without the title character and reinvent themselves? Plus the way Renner’s character was introduced (“There was never just one&#8221 neatly allows for Damon to return. Or at the very least for another new lead to be introduced. All in all, a nice triple that still keeps the pic in play. Audiences gave The Bourne Legacy a ‘B’ CinemaScore which should be neutral for word of mouth.

2. Also faring well is Warner Bros R-rated political comedy The Campaign (3,204 theaters) from Will Ferrell’s and Adam McKay’s Gary Sanchez Productions. Audiences love summer laughers, sometimes the stupider the better. (That scene where Ferrell punches the baby was priceless&#8230 So The Campaign hit fewer funny bones than hoped according to its ‘B-’ CinemaScore from audiences and that may hurt word of mouth. It opened with $11M Friday and likely $29M this weekend. “That included a very strong $625K from midnight showings beating all the comps,” Warner Bros told me.

3. Warner Bros’/Legendary Pictures’ PG-13 The Dark Knight Rises (3,690 theaters, Week 4) is third after a 4-week run atop the box office with $5.8M Friday and probably $20M for the weekend and a giant $390.6M cume.

4. Sony Pictures opened Meryl Streep’s latest adult fare Hope Springs midweek (2,361 theaters, Week 1) to get out in front of this weekend’s clutter. Good strategy because it posted numbers bigger than the studio’s Total Recall – $2.2M Wednesday and $2.1M Thursday. It’s doing $5M Friday and likely $15.5M this weekend if there’s the expected adult bump on Saturday. Its possible 5-day cume will be near $20M.

5. Holdover Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days (3,398 theaters, Week 2) from Fox hangs in for $3.2M Friday and likely about $9M for the weekend and a soft cume $31.3M.

6. Sony Pictures’ Total Recall (3,601 theaters, Week 2) fell -71% from Friday to Friday – way more than the studio hoped. The PG-13 holdover made $2.6M Friday and likely $8.5M for the weekend with a weak $44.6M cume.

7. Fox’s PG-rated Ice Age 4 (3,103 theaters, Week 5) tallied $2.1M Friday and likely $7.2M for the weekend with a $144.5 cume. It’s now Fox´s biggest film of all time in Latin America beating Avatar.

8. Lionsgate/Summit Entertainment’s PG-13 Step Up Revolution (1,898 theaters, Week 3) made $1.1M Friday and $3.4M weekend with a $30.7M cume.

9. Universal’s R-rated Ted (2,208 theaters, Week 7) took in $1.0K Friday and probably a $3.5M weekend for a $210.1M cume.

10. Hard to tell. Could be Sony Pictures’ PG-13 The Amazing Spider-Man (1,585 theaters, Week 6) or could be Fox’s R-rated comedy The Watch (2,463 theaters, Week 3) because they both tallied around $650K Friday and should come in for between $2.0M-$2.4M this weekend. Of course the Spidey reboot has a huge $255.8 cume while The Watch only $31.2M.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's a good number for a Bourne spin off but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended the weekend just under 40mil when all is said and done.

 

[rayc1971]

The story that I always heard at the time was that Raimi wanted to do Black Cat, but that Sony executives didn't think that a sexy female cat burglar that dressed like a cat would ever be accepted by audiences so they wanted him to make Felicia Hardy into the Vulturess instead.

thats how it went down sony thought black cat would be a catwoman copy.i think fans dont look at it that way felicia hardy and selina kyle not the same to me.

 

[craigdbfan]

I'm more surprised that the Campaign was able to knock TDKR to 3rd place.

 

[matrix_ghost]

First year in box office history i believe with 3 films all topping 400m.

Yup.
2011 had 3 movies that hit 1 billion ww (thanks to 3-d).
I dunno if TDKR will pull be able to hit 1 billion ww but with hobbit coming there is a chance of having another 400 million/billion dollar grosser.

 

[Marvin]

Yup.
2011 had 3 movies that hit 1 billion ww (thanks to 3-d).
I dunno if TDKR will pull be able to hit 1 billion ww but with hobbit coming there is a chance of having another 400 million/billion dollar grosser.

thanks to 3D?
there are just as many if not more 3D releases this year. As always it's been about quality.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Yup.
2011 had 3 movies that hit 1 billion ww (thanks to 3-d).
I dunno if TDKR will pull be able to hit 1 billion ww but with hobbit coming there is a chance of having another 400 million/billion dollar grosser.

TDKR is actually ahead of of TDK's WW pace right now so 1 billion is essentially a lock.

thanks to 3D?
there are just as many if not more 3D releases this year. As always it's been about quality.

The 3D surcharge plays a factor hence the explosion of billion dollars films the last several years. Someone did a calculation on the batboards on films that wouldn't have grossed a billion without the extra 3d surcharge the last few years.

In 2011 Pirates 4 would not have grossed 1 billion without 3d surcharge. Transformers 3 is a maybe whether it would have or not likely not. Only H7-2 would be a lock for a billion in 2d.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[terry78]

Yeah, I had a feeling Campaign was gonna topple TDKR as well. I went last night, the thing was sold out.

 

[matrix_ghost]

thanks to 3D?
there are just as many if not more 3D releases this year. As always it's been about quality.

POTC 4 , Harry Potter and Transformers 3 were the 3 movies that hit 1 billion WW in 2011 and all were 3-d releases.

 

[DACrowe]

TDKR will hit a billion. The Hobbit has a shot. The blockbusters though as a whole are off this year. Perhaps the system of putting all their money into a few tentpoles will be rethought? Probably not.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yep, TDKR is a lock for a billion. If the it's as hyped some Chinese fans are saying, then TDKR could make 1.1 billion world wide by the end.

 

[Tony Stark]

TDKR will hit a billion. The Hobbit has a shot. The blockbusters though as a whole are off this year. Perhaps the system of putting all their money into a few tentpoles will be rethought? Probably not.

I would say the Hobbit is a lock for a billion. The question is, will it be the no. 1 movie of the year?