2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[chaseter]

Captain America had a totally acceptable opening weekend multiplier of 2.7.

Considering it was the 4th superhero film of the summer, that's right in line with expectations. If anything took a chunk of Captain America's box office it was Rise of the Planet of the Apes by being a better movie.

$176 domestic isn't that good but it did ok overseas. I doubt it broke even in theaters.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1507,5 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1041,4 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $833,8 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $743,9 million
5. The Hunger Games $685,1 million
6. Men in Black 3 $624 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $612 million
8. Brave $488,3 million
9. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
10. Ted $394,9 million
11. Prometheus $375 million
12. The Intouchables $364,2 million
13. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $337,1 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,5 million
20. American Reunion $234,7 million

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

What did it take repeat viewers or people who were never going to watch Cap anyways? One you are assuming that people go to the movies no matter what and the others you are assuming it somehow stopped people from seeing it again. Not sure how you figure that.

It's simple logic. Not sure how you dont figure it out. People go to the movies during the summer. Similar audiences take repeat viewers and people who were curious about the movie.

"I want to see Captain America but ooh that movie with Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford with the director of Iron Man is playing."

 

[Shifty]

It's simple logic. Not sure how you dont figure it out. People go to the movies during the summer. Similar audiences take repeat viewers and people who were curious about the movie.

"I want to see Captain America but ooh that movie with Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford with the director of Iron Man is playing."

Given the small opening and disappointing haul overall domestically and overseas for C&A, whatever group out there that has a limited budget and had to pick between the two had a minimal impact on Captain America's performance. If anything, Cowboys and Aliens was hurt by Cap.

Ford (no longer) and Craig (never was, its the Bond character) are not box office draws. The film was crap as well, so word of mouth sunk it.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Fair enough, though I do believe that if Cap was in Thor's spot it would have made 200 million+ domestic.

 

[Octoberist]

I wonder how much Dredd will make in the US.

 

[Evil Twin]

Re: Captain America

If you release a film in the summer or winter, there's going to be competition. That's just the reality of the situation. Sure, timing sometimes works out better for a film than expected, but the films that really connect don't cry about competition.

 

[CConn]

$176 domestic isn't that good but it did ok overseas.

Which is ironic.

 

[marvelman2006]

Im still wondering what kind of business GI joe 2 would have done had they not moved it out of the summer?

 

[marvelman2006]

I wonder how much Dredd will make in the US.

Im gonna say $79 million tops when its all said and done.

 

[CConn]

So $80 million would be an outlandish prediction?

 

[Shifty]

I was going to say $80 million domestic and $100 million overseas which is good with a $45 million budget, they'll turn a profit when Blu-ray hits with those estimates. Unlike Total Recall...

 

[Micromind]

wow, Take a look at Summer 2012's under performing movies -


Battleship
Production Budget: $209 million

Domestic: $65,233,400 21.5%
+ Foreign: $237,602,860 78.5%
------------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $302,836,260


Total Recall
Production Budget: $125 million

Domestic: $57,627,693 34.7%
+ Foreign: $108,400,000 65.3%
-----------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $166,027,693

The Bourne Legacy
Production Budget: $125 million

Domestic: $105,788,000 57.5%
+ Foreign: $78,040,783 42.5%
-----------------------------------------
= Worldwide: $183,828,783

 

[KangConquers]

$176 domestic isn't that good but it did ok overseas. I doubt it broke even in theaters.

Movies generally need to make about 2.5 times their production budget to enter profit. For a $140 M dollar movie, that would be $350 M worlwide. Cap made $368 M.

The only Marvel movies studios movie that didn't break even in theaters was TIH, thus why all of the others have/ are getting sequels, and the Hulk isn't.

 

[KangConquers]

Which is ironic.

Not really. Captain America has comics in print in over 70 countries. Fan boys made an illogical stink about the movie being in trouble in foreign markets.

 

[chaseter]

Movies generally need to make about 2.5 times their production budget to enter profit. For a $140 M dollar movie, that would be $350 M worlwide. Cap made $368 M.

The only Marvel movies studios movie that didn't break even in theaters was TIH, thus why all of the others have/ are getting sequels, and the Hulk isn't.

I don't think it's 2.5. Someone posted an article from an insider that says most films overseas make about 15% including marketing. The box office percentage also decreases each week domestic. I don't want to say I know the correct number but 2.5 sounds way too low for WW. I would think domestic and overseas need to be calculated separately. The 2x is usually standard fare for domestic.

 

[KangConquers]

I don't think it's 2.5. Someone posted an article from an insider that says most films overseas make about 15% including marketing. The box office percentage also decreases each week domestic. I don't want to say I know the correct number but 2.5 sounds way too low for WW. I would think domestic and overseas need to be calculated separately. The 2x is usually standard fare for domestic.

15% was an old figure, that's gone out the window. These days, foreign gross is much more lucrative, with studios picking up 40-45% of the foreign ticket.

The 2x is an average. Really the studio starts off with most of the box office gross in the first weekend, and starts losing as the run goes on, but it basically averages out to the studio getting half of each ticket. This also benefits studios, as movies tend to be incredibly front-loaded compared to 10-15 years ago, when a 4 or 5 multiplier on an opening weekend wasn't uncommon.

If Captain America didn't make a profit, they wouldn't green light for less than three years later; they would've waited 4-5 years.

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Im gonna say $79 million tops when its all said and done.

The movie has had very little marketing, it has no stars and it looks cheap and lazy. I say it will be lucky if it makes 40mil domestically.

 

[marvelman2006]

The movie has had very little marketing, it has no stars and it looks cheap and lazy. I say it will be lucky if it makes 40mil domestically.

My estimate is best case scenario for the film domestically. I wouldnt be surprised if it bombs but who knows because nothing really good has come out lately and it might make some noise. The real question is though is there still interest for the character?

 

[chaseter]

15% was an old figure, that's gone out the window. These days, foreign gross is much more lucrative, with studios picking up 40-45% of the foreign ticket.

The 2x is an average. Really the studio starts off with most of the box office gross in the first weekend, and starts losing as the run goes on, but it basically averages out to the studio getting half of each ticket. This also benefits studios, as movies tend to be incredibly front-loaded compared to 10-15 years ago, when a 4 or 5 multiplier on an opening weekend wasn't uncommon.

If Captain America didn't make a profit, they wouldn't green light for less than three years later; they would've waited 4-5 years.

It could have made a profit on DVD, the second one is obviously going to make more, and/or holding up production of properties that tie into the Avengers isn't going to happen. So I don't think waiting 4-5 years was ever an option if it failed. I am not saying it failed or bombed...but I don't think it made a profit in theaters. You also didn't account for advertising costs in your calculation...which is usually around a hundred mil for summer blockbusters. Now after toys, shirts, DVD, tv deals, etc...it really likely made a good profit. In theaters....it didn't do good.

 

[terry78]

Dredd is a very cult character, even over in the UK.

 

[:eek:]

Resident Evil: Big in Japan

In Japan, Retribution launched with $10.3 million -- the biggest opening for a Hollywood film and second biggest overall this year in that country. The figure is 15% bigger than the previous film, Resident Evil: Afterlife, double that of The Dark Knight Rises, and 61% higher than Marvel's The Avengers.

 

[Micromind]

Resident Evil: Big in Japan

In Japan, Retribution launched with $10.3 million -- the biggest opening for a Hollywood film and second biggest overall this year in that country. The figure is 15% bigger than the previous film, Resident Evil: Afterlife, double that of The Dark Knight Rises, and 61% higher than Marvel's The Avengers.

Any reason why it is that successful over there ?

 

[Marvin]

the game partially