2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[KangConquers]

It could have made a profit on DVD, the second one is obviously going to make more, and/or holding up production of properties that tie into the Avengers isn't going to happen. So I don't think waiting 4-5 years was ever an option if it failed. I am not saying it failed or bombed...but I don't think it made a profit in theaters. You also didn't account for advertising costs in your calculation...which is usually around a hundred mil for summer blockbusters. Now after toys, shirts, DVD, tv deals, etc...it really likely made a good profit. In theaters....it didn't do good.

the 2.5 figure is based on Advertising costs actually...A movie usually spends the equivalent of an additional half of it's budget on marketing.

Captain America's marketing was incredibly mild, probably more towards 50-75 M than your 100 M figure. $100-150 M advertising budgets are done for films that cost a quarter billion to make. Marketing is usually paid off half with the toys and tie ins you mentioned, and half by the film. That's why a blockbuster requires 2.5 times it's budget from theaters and not 3 times it's budget (which would be 2 times 1.5 the budget, or budget + advertising.)

The other formula I've seen is 1.75 times total spending, since things like tie ins (video games, action figures, product placement) help pay for the advertising.

So:

Film Budget= 140 M
Marketing Budget= 70 M
Total= 210 M


So:

Formula 1: 140 x 2.5 = 350 M
Formula 2: 210 x 1.75= 360 M

Cap's total gross was $368 M.

That doesn't account for the $30 M dollar kick back they got for filming in England. Cap didn't make a huge profit, but it definitely broke even based on it's run alone. DVD, toys, etc were icing on the cake and pure profit vs. it's salvation.

Cap was actually more profitable than any X-Men movie other than the first X-Men film (which had a very small budget.)

 

[chaseter]

If you had a link that explains where you got 2.5 I would totally be on your side. I still think it's a tad more. I would guess 2.75 WW. Maybe a little less or more. 2.5 seems way too low.

I know there was an article recently saying ASM needed to make $650 mil WW to break even. I assume that includes marketing. That's a 2.85 multiplier.

 

[KangConquers]

If you had a link that explains where you got 2.5 I would totally be on your side. I still think it's a tad more. I would guess 2.75 WW. Maybe a little less or more. 2.5 seems way too low.

I know there was an article recently saying ASM needed to make $650 mil WW to break even. I assume that includes marketing. That's a 2.85 multiplier.

Pick your poison.


This link claims Captain America's marketing budget was between 30-50 M. If that's true, my point becomes even more solid. $140 M spent, minus the $30 M kickback= $110 M production costs + $50 M advertising = $160 M for the whole ball of wax.

That would mean Marvel started seeing profit at $320 M worldwide.

Amazing Spider-Man isn't a comparable film. Captain America is a mid-budget tentpole, where as ASM is a mega budget tent pole. Marketing for ASM was easily $150 M.

 

[chaseter]

Those say at least 2.5. Some even say 2.5-3. So I guess we are both right? It could vary depending on the movie? A lot of those are also forum posts...those I don't take credence in.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1510,6 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1058,3 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $836,9 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $748,6 million
5. The Hunger Games $685,1 million
6. Men in Black 3 $624 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $620,6 million
8. Brave $499,9 million
9. Ted $407,6 million
10. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
11. Prometheus $386,7 million
12. The Intouchables $364,6 million
13. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
14. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $337,1 million
15. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
16. Battleship $302,8 million
17. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
18. John Carter $282,8 million
19. The Expendables 2 $266,7 million
20. Dark Shadows $238 million

 

[Iceman]

Take out the comic films and that list suddenly looks a whole lot less impressive!

 

[Tacit Ronin]

If SONY only kept Raimi and company and made Spiderman 4, we could be looking at another comic film with a billion dollar gross.

 

[marvelman2006]

If SONY only kept Raimi and company and made Spiderman 4, we could be looking at another comic film with a billion dollar gross.

Thats debatable, Im as big a spiderman fan as they come and the other 3 didnt cross $1 billion so it would be tough to say if a 4th would have since it was following an overall bashed and not well recieved 3rd movie. We'll never know but it makes me wonder if sony did the right thing by not atleast keeping raimi and maguire but replacing dunst.

 

[chaseter]

SM4 would have made more than ASM without question. SM3 made right under $900 million 5 years ago. It would have crossed a billion if it was a good movie.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Thats debatable, Im as big a spiderman fan as they come and the other 3 didnt cross $1 billion so it would be tough to say if a 4th would have since it was following an overall bashed and not well recieved 3rd movie. We'll never know but it makes me wonder if sony did the right thing by not atleast keeping raimi and maguire but replacing dunst.

Spidey 3 made 890 million in 2007; add five years of inflation and and 3D (which it no doubt would've been, post production or genuine) and you have a film that speeds past the billion dollar mark. Even if Spidey 4 sold less tickets I believe it would've sold enough to cross it.

 

[El Hombre Gato]

The International Market is a lot bigger now than it was in 2002, 2004, and 2007. So, Raimi's Spidey 4 would have likely crossed the billion dollar mark. PLUS, if I recall correctly, Sony had set Spidey 4 for a 2011 release. It would have been THE superhero flick that year. That's another advantage.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, $1BN for (a theoretical) Spidey 4 for sure.

And release any other year when the last Nolan Batman & the 1st Avengers film isn't releasing.

 

[Shifty]

SM4 would have made more than ASM without question. SM3 made right under $900 million 5 years ago. It would have crossed a billion if it was a good movie.

And then you would have Sony looking at SM5 and SM6...

We'll see if Sony's plans for 5 sequels (based on box office success) to TASM turn out better than Raimi's trilogy.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

The other formula I've seen is 1.75 times total spending, since things like tie ins (video games, action figures, product placement) help pay for the advertising.

You mean this?

http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/the...-and-the-dictator-sink-in-profit-tally-kagan/
http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/madagascar3-movie-profits-snl-kagan-june/

 

[marvelman2006]

Spidey 3 made 890 million in 2007; add five years of inflation and and 3D (which it no doubt would've been, post production or genuine) and you have a film that speeds past the billion dollar mark. Even if Spidey 4 sold less tickets I believe it would've sold enough to cross it.

I dunno, I mean I can see the hype pushing it right over that mark and all but part of me has a small amount of doubt just because of the direction the sam was going with the franchise and people were getting tired of maguire in the role and dunst of course was unbearable. I still say the ASM would have been bigger if they had just gone with a contiuation of the story instead of revisitng the origin again.

 

[chaseter]

And then you would have Sony looking at SM5 and SM6...

We'll see if Sony's plans for 5 sequels (based on box office success) to TASM turn out better than Raimi's trilogy.

Sony isn't going to do 6 films with the current cast and crew.

 

[chaseter]

You mean this?

http://www.deadline.com/2012/06/the...-and-the-dictator-sink-in-profit-tally-kagan/
http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/madagascar3-movie-profits-snl-kagan-june/

1.75 x total cost. You see how they say Avengers cost $450 million? So 1.75 x $450 million meant it had to make about $800 million WW to be profitable. We usually never know the total cost of the film. We usually only really know the published budget on production.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

LOL @ people who think SM4 was a sure hit after the crappy WOM from SM3.

Not to mention salary demands would've pushed the budget past SM3's.

We all know the Spider-Man movies always drop with every release in the domestic market but ASM2 could be the first to reverse that trend whereas franchise fatigue would've pushed SM4 and SM5 lower and lower.

 

[Micromind]

How many comic book properties have crossed 1 billion mark ? Only 3 movies so far, Avengers, TDK and TDKR. It is not as easy as many here seem to think.

After very successful Spider-Man 2, many would have thought that Spider-Man 3 (2007) would cross 1 billion mark, something that TDK (2008) achieved one year later without 3D.

Even after the successful Iron Man movie and the star power of RDJ, Iron Man 2 failed to cross 1 billion mark.

What I want to say is - it is not an easy task.

 

[Iceman]

LOL @ people who think SM4 was a sure hit after the crappy WOM from SM3.

Not to mention salary demands would've pushed the budget past SM3's.

We all know the Spider-Man movies always drop with every release in the domestic market but ASM2 could be the first to reverse that trend whereas franchise fatigue would've pushed SM4 and SM5 lower and lower.

Look at what the word of mouth for RotF did for DotM overseas though. Same goes for PotC. Spidey 4 would have been huge overseas although likely not quite the same story domestically (though even then it could have returned to quality).

 

[Iceman]

How many comic book properties have crossed 1 billion mark ? Only 3 movies so far, Avengers, TDK and TDKR. It is not as easy as many here seem to think.

After very successful Spider-Man 2, many would have thought that Spider-Man 3 (2007) would cross 1 billion mark, something that TDK (2008) achieved one year later without 3D.

Even after the successful Iron Man movie and the star power of RDJ, Iron Man 2 failed to cross 1 billion mark.

What I want to say is - it is not an easy task.

Most comic properties don't have the capacity to get to $1B but any of the 3 previous Spider-man films might have made $1B if released in today's market. I don't think anyone is predicting $1B for anything outside of Batman, Spider-man & team films at the moment. Maybe after developing modern film reputations worthy of their names, Superman & X-Men will join that club at some point in the future.

 

[Marvin]

SM4 would have made more than ASM without question. SM3 made right under $900 million 5 years ago. It would have crossed a billion if it was a good movie.

That's not necessarily true. If one applies the same to MIB for instance. Perhaps a reboot with young charismatic leads in an effort to recapture the fun of discovery would have done better than continuing a franchise past it's glory days and with a bad taste in it's mouth. We'll never know, even when talking about Spiderman.

What I do know is that as a film ASM is as good if not better than SM1.
Now if ASM2 is as good or better than SM2 it will most certainly do better than a toby/dunst led SM4. NO Doubt.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

That's not necessarily true. If one applies the same to MIB for instance. Perhaps a reboot with young charismatic leads in an effort to recapture the fun of discovery would have done better than continuing a franchise past it's glory days and with a bad taste in it's mouth. We'll never know, even when talking about Spiderman.

What I do know is that as a film ASM is as good if not better than SM1.
Now if ASM2 is as good or better than SM2 it will most certainly do better than a toby/dunst led SM4. NO Doubt.

Eh.... I'm not disagreeing, but I'm agreeing either. I think it's becaus MIB is a bad example compared to ASM. MIB 3 is a sequel to a movie made 10 years ago. Will Smith, while being a mild draw, isn't as huge a draw as he used to be.

Spider-man 4 would have made more than ASM, personally. It has Spider-man 3 working against it but I don't think Spider-man 3 would have killed the series exactly. Spider-man 4, however, would have though and we'd have to reboot any way so good thing they didn't go with Spider-man 4.

Sometimes it's better to reboot (like X-men, in my opinion is in need of one instead of trying to make a thousand spinoffs/prequels of it.), and sometimes it isn't.

 

[metaphysician]

I still boggle at the claims of "actual cost" for Avengers being 450M. Yes, yes, marketing, but your claiming more was spent on marketing than was spent making the movie. The only way I can see the cost coming up like that is via creative account, to minimize the profit margin of the movie for tax and royalty purposes ( costing marketing work as if it were done by contract consultants, despite it being done in-house, for example ). Green Lantern was talked about in Hollywood as being horridly overpriced for having a rumored marketing budget of 100M; just because Avengers had *better* marketing, doesn't mean they paid more.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Sony isn't going to do 6 films with the current cast and crew.

The director might not even get one more film, let alone five.