2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

Harry Potter 7 had a 72% 2nd weekend drop. I predict BD pt. 2 will have an 80% drop. The movie was horrid, I was forced to watch as my daughter wanted to see it. Easily one of the 5 worst films of 2012. It's a shame that this movie is so successful, but a movie that at least had some ambition like John Carter is a flop.

I hope that the Hobbit will be right up there with Avengers for opening weekend.

TDKR will still remain no 2 for 2012, because the Hobbit will have earned a great portion of it's gross in 2013, but I think it will be 2nd on the list for biggest opening weekend for 2012.

 

[Liam_H]

I say it'll drop around 70% like Part 1 did. This franchise is pretty consistent with how it performs.

I certainly see Hobbit opening to over $100 million but not that high considering rush factor usually isn't that high compared to summer movies. Legs will be its strength.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

So now you're blaming the title? You should have read reviews before seeing the movie it was very obvious long before the movie came out what the focus of its story would be.

Also it's one thing to say how you would have liked the movie to be it's a another to say how "it should have" as in the movie and spielberg was wrong and you were right.

This movie was not made to be a bio-pic or a civil war drama and everything but the title (apparently to you) was made obvious long ago.

This. Marvelman, there are no set written (or unwritten) rules to a biopic. Ali, Social Network, and The King's Speech are biopics that only focuses on the prime years of their respective protagonists without telling their whole life story. Sorry if the movie the didn't fit your expectations, but even the trailer had about 5, 10 seconds of Civil War battles in it. And if you're so bothered by that that it ruins what is otherwise a great film, then honestly that's pretty fickle and sad.

 

[marvelman2006]

This. Marvelman, there are no set written (or unwritten) rules to a biopic. Ali, Social Network, and The King's Speech are biopics that only focuses on the prime years of their respective protagonists without telling their whole life story. Sorry if the movie the didn't fit your expectations, but even the trailer had about 5, 10 seconds of Civil War battles in it. And if you're so bothered by that that it ruins what is otherwise a great film, then honestly that's pretty fickle and sad.

Hold the phone one sec skip, Im responding to his cheeky tone to me about who am I am to say one way or another. I take personal offence to that remark given other threads on these boards say "how would you have done it differently". I said DDL was really the only good thing about this movie and a nod to TLJ. The thing is Im not stupid I can tell what a trailer is selling me as much as the next guy unless its called ironman 2 or revenge of the fallen. I would have much rather preferred to see DDL sink his teeth into a full lincoln biopic. I have no problems with the movie focusing solely on the 13th amendmant but it would have been nice to see DDL tackle a bigger scale story.

 

[:eek:]

Top 25 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1511,8 million
2. The Dark Knight Rises $1080,8 million
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $874,3 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $752,2 million
5. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $737,6 million
6. The Hunger Games $686,5 million
7. Skyfall $672,9 million
8. Men in Black 3 $624 million
9. Brave $534,7 million
10. Ted $500,7 million
11. The Intouchables $409 million
12. Prometheus $402,5 million
13. Snow White and the Huntsman $396,4 million
14. Taken 2 $352,3 million
15. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 $350,8 million
16. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $348,8 million
17. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
18. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
19. Battleship $302,8 million
20. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
21. The Expendables 2 $300,4 million
22. Hotel Transylvania $283,2 million
23. John Carter $282,8 million
24. The Bourne Legacy $274,5 million
25. Dark Shadows $239,1 million

 

[Iceman]

3rd & 4th sequels to successful kid's animated films are as close to a guranteed moneymaker as you get nowadays. Especially when you compare budgets against live action films.

 

[matrix_ghost]

As per TOLDJA it looks like Skyfall will hit 225 million.
250 million domestic is a lock.
Wonder if it'll have enough juice left to hit 300 million domestic.

 

[Iceman]

Harry Potter 7 had a 72% 2nd weekend drop. I predict BD pt. 2 will have an 80% drop. The movie was horrid, I was forced to watch as my daughter wanted to see it. Easily one of the 5 worst films of 2012. It's a shame that this movie is so successful, but a movie that at least had some ambition like John Carter is a flop.

I hope that the Hobbit will be right up there with Avengers for opening weekend.

TDKR will still remain no 2 for 2012, because the Hobbit will have earned a great portion of it's gross in 2013, but I think it will be 2nd on the list for biggest opening weekend for 2012.

Haha, a father's duty and all that. t:

Do you think Hobbit has a chance of getting close to Avengers opening weekend? I'm not feeling it at the moment but you never know.

If a film is released in 2012, I think the grosses from 2012 & 2013 all count for 2012 in terms of ranking for the year in question on box office mojo terms.

 

[:eek:]

I doubt Hobbit will have such a massive opening like Avengers. Summer movies are usually more frontloaded.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I was worried for a second about RISE OF THE GUARDIANS at box office - business-wise I need this film to do well - HOWEVER looking at Christmas titles (unsure why there is a comparison to 'The Muppets'), it's opening earned double ARTHUR CHRISTMAS...

And other openings:

Polar Express - 23 million -> 182 million
Elf 31 million --> 173 million
The Santa Claus 19 million --> 144 million
Santa Claus 2 29 million --> 139 million
A Christmas Carol 30 million --> 137 million
Four Christmases 31 million --> 120 million

These movies always seem to open around 20 -->35 million with slight droppings over the next couple of weeks but with a strong hold over due to the holidays.

Elf has 82% critic approval, A Christmas Carol has 54%, Four Christmases has 25%, Rise of the Guardians has 77% and an exiting poll of an 'A.' With it being the only holiday film of the season, I'd say I'm betting on a 120 - 137 million closing (hopefully more, but seeing THE HOBBIT as competition throughout the second half of December).

 

[terry78]

^Ahhh, so that's who you work for.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Nope. Just genre of the film. I'm a writer with connections to companies, no longer work for one and it isn't dreamworks although one of my friends does work there as an assistant actually... If it flops, that would make the script really risky due to what it says about holiday films in this day and age (if this had flopped like Arthur Christmas did, it would be seen as a genre that is highly risky despite the numerous differences and it being suited more towards live action - that's how an executive mind works).

 

[terry78]

I did see it last night and it's a very well done flick. But the theatre was only like half full due to it being Thanksgiving eve and what not. It'll jump come Friday.

 

[dark_b]

Nope. Just genre of the film. I'm a writer with connections to companies, no longer work for one and it isn't dreamworks although one of my friends does work there as an assistant actually... If it flops, that would make the script really risky due to what it says about holiday films in this day and age (if this had flopped like Arthur Christmas did, it would be seen as a genre that is highly risky despite the numerous differences and it being suited more towards live action - that's how an executive mind works).

omg i didnt even know how much it bombed.
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=arthurchristmas.htm

 

[Ultimatehero]

Yeah, Arthur Christmas really flopped. The problem is, the thing that I was afraid about is, if 'RISE OF THE GUARDIANS' had flopped as well (I was even nervous upon seeing today's estimates, but then looked up to see how holiday films usually perform - soft opening, strong legs), to studios it would have said:

"Holiday/Christmas films have in recent years become a box office risk to be avoided."

It doesn't make sense, but - with executives it's the generalizations of what it would say to have two Christmas films perform badly in a row (kind of the opposite of what happened to haunted house films). As said though, with the way Christmas films have performed in the past - it seems to be right on target: soft opening, strong legs.

 

[dark_b]

maybe the realese dates are the problem? i like christmas movies in december.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I think that probably has something to do with it. But, there isn't really a Christmas movie released in december to check off if anything changes since all have been released in November basically. Personally, I might be wrong, but opening mid-December seems to be the best way to open big (however studios might not do this because it could take away money... unsure since there haven't really been past precedences)

http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=christmas.htm

 

[terry78]

November has become the new pre-Christmas season basically. For shopping and movies. December is more or less the time for giant blockbusters in the vein of summer.

 

[mclay18]

Harry Potter 7 had a 72% 2nd weekend drop. I predict BD pt. 2 will have an 80% drop.

Right now, the second weekend for BD2 will a slightly smaller drop than BD1 did ($45M vs. $41M), but it's also being buoyed by the Thanksgiving bump. If you count the 5-day holiday as part of that weekend, it'll only have dropped 52%. If the estimates hold, it'll still have made a couple million more than BD1.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Just got back from LIFE OF PI and - like I didn't understand the comparisons of Rise to other animated films rather than Christmas films - here I don't understand the comparisons to HUGO. Hugo has nothing that would be too intense for younger children, I really don't feel comfortable calling this a "family film" and while if I was a parent (I'm still young myself lol) I don't think I'd feel comfortable bringing a kid in younger than 6 - maybe 7 or 8 - but judging from the reactions from adults and even my own... it's controversial in those regards. The adults in the theater were flinching and even screaming from fright - more than they do at some horror films. I would instead look for this hitting primarily the college and older demographics. I state college because I'm unsure how the religious aspect may play to teenagers. I still see it doing well, or hope it does well, just needs a demographic adjustment - What would you say are similar films in the past years?

 

[747]

The movie was horrid, I was forced to watch as my daughter wanted to see it. Easily one of the 5 worst films of 2012. It's a shame that this movie is so successful, but a movie that at least had some ambition like John Carter is a flop.

Breaking Dawn: Part 2 > John Carter imo. Which says more about how bad Carter is.

 

[Call Me Darkman]

As of today, Skyfall surpasses Moonraker to become the 4th most successful Bond film of all time. And at the rate it's going, it'll surpass You Only Live Twice as well.


Adjusted for inflation:

Thunderball - $594 million
Goldfinger - $526.4 million
YOLT - $285 million
Skyfall - $226.2 million

 

[:eek:]

Skyfall will soon be the biggest movie of all time (not adjusted for inflation) in UK:

Skyfall added $41.3 million this weekend from Sony's markets, with MGM's territories not yet reporting. It opened in Australia, where it scored Sony's best-ever opening with $12.53 million. It also brought its total to $144.5 million in the U.K., and should pass Avatar's $150 million record next weekend

 

[Bruce Malone]

Wow the UK sure does love their bond. He's pretty much their batman the way i see it. I mean avatar had all those inflated 3d ticket prices.

I still don't know if i can forgive them for Mamma Mia out-grossing The Dark Knight in 2008 though.

 

[Liam_H]

Very appropriate for Bond to be their top dog.