2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

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THURSDAY UPDATE: Iron Man 3 grossed $65.6 million on Wednesday to pass the $300 million overseas benchmark on its way to a $307 million overseas total. The film has now surpassed the overseas totals for Iron Man ($267 million) and Thor ($268 million). It is on track to surpass Iron Man 2's $312 overseas total tomorrow, only its ninth day in release.
Iron Man 3 opened in China, Germany, South Africa, and Thailand yesterday. It broke all opening day records in China with an estimated $21.5 million gross. It went on to post the biggest single-day numbers in history for South Africa and Thailand.

 

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‘Iron Man 3′ Global Cume $361M Including $15.6M Late Night Gross For North America; Expected To Open Summer 2013 With Huge $165M-$180M Domestic Weekend For $650M Worldwide

By NIKKI FINKE, Editor in Chief | Friday May 3, 2013 @ 9:30am PDT

FRIDAY AM, 4TH UPDATE: The Summer 2013 movie season officially opened today with a much-anticipated tentpole from Disney and Marvel. The North American theater count for Iron Man 3 is a whopping 4,253 venues. But there were fewer theaters for its late night run which started at 9 PM Thursday and continued through well after Friday midnight and made a non-record $15.6M. Hard to talk about midnight comps because the sneaky studios keep starting their weekend previews earlier and earlier and then fold in those Thursday/Friday totals to pad first-day numbers. But for your reference, The Avengers did $18.7M and Warner Bros’ Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2 did $43.5M. Iron Man 3 now has a global box office total of $361M, setting new opening day records in Russia and Ukraine. Internationally, the film has already passed the total international box office of Captain America ($192M), Iron Man ($267M), Thor ($268M) and Iron Man 2 ($312M). Even rival studios tell me that Iron Man 3 this weekend is “looking more like Avengers which opened at $207M than Iron Man 2 which opened at $128M. Avengers helped them get much more of the family audience. This should continue that trend.” So the expectations are for $165M-$180M in North America through Sunday for the Robert Downey Jr starring/Shane Black-directed actioner. With the second overseas weekend of Avengers making $156.1M. it’s very possible that Iron Man 3 could come up with a worldwide total of $650M through Sunday.

 

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SATURDAY UPDATE: Iron Man 3 added another $43.1 million to its overseas gross on Friday, reaching a $388.3 million overseas total after ten days in release. Combined with Friday's $68.3 million take in the U.S., Iron Man 3 has reached a $456.6 million global total.



Iron Man 3: Top Territories. Cumulative Gross by Territory as of May 4, 2013
China $40.0M
Korea $31.8M
UK $30.2M
Mexico $29.5M
France $24.8M
Australia $23.8M
Brazil $22.9M
Italy $15.4M
Taiwan $12.6M
Russia $12.5M
Japan $12.3M
Philippines $10.9M
India $9.2M
Malaysia $9.0M
Hong Kong $8.9M
Indonesia $8.7M
Spain $7.7M
Other $78.1M
Overseas Total $388.3M

 

[Octoberist]

So strange we're seeing the BO of every country in real time and we're all engaged. It wasn't like that a few years ago where the focus was mostly on the domestic US Box Office.*

*Which still plays a huge role btw. I think the way the money is split between studios and theaters is convoluted overseas whereas studios get a more equal share in the US.

 

[747]

I'm glad more people have realised there is a world and market outside of North America.

We matter too!

 

[terry78]

I'm glad more people have realised there is a world and market outside of North America.

We matter too!

Only when we need fresh actors.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

IRON MAN 3: $175.3M Weekend (est) / $175.3M Domestic Total / 4,253 Locations / $41,218 Location Avg. #IronMan3

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/331061276274999301

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

IRON MAN 3 update: Dom - $175.3M, Int'l - $504.8M, WW - $680.1M

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/331063922117447681

 

[jacobed]

Pretty good numbers. I thought they'd be higher for opening weekend though

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Higher than $175.3M? Second highest opening of all-time is pretty damn good. The film has already outgrossed the first two films worldwide.

 

[Moridin]

I'll take a stab at a top 5 BO:

WW
IM3 (duh)
TH: DoS
Despicable Me 2
Monsters Uni (I thik people are underestimating this)
HG:CF ($800m-ish)

US
IM3
HG:CF (I think it'll drop from the first)
MU
DM 2
DoS/MoS/STID (around $300m each)


I had Thor:TDW at $250m US/ $700m WW, but now...

 

[mclay18]

I had Thor:TDW at $250m US/ $700m WW, but now...

I'm pretty sure Thor: The Dark World will get a nice boost from The Avengers ($20M-$30M more than Thor's opening weekend), but I don't think it will crack $120M opening weekend, let alone that $175M opening Iron Man 3 is enjoying.

One key reason IM3 is enjoying that big weekend is because RDJ was the star in both that and The Avengers (even though the latter was an ensemble piece). There's absolutely no way Thor 2 and Captain America 2 can get close to that. (Unless some scenes with RDJ's Tony Stark are added to both pics.)

 

[Marvin]

IM3 has good numbers but it's pretty much blown it's load in terms of big markets right off the bat. There not going to be that big push from china and what not down the road like other films have cause it's already happened. Considering nothing big opens for a couple of weeks, I predict IM3 will have some staying power at least untill Trek drops.

There is some mixed word of mouth coming out of this though, it's not like with Avengers or the First IM. It seems alot more love or hate this time around. I'm sure Joss Whedon would have turned out a better received product.

 

[psylockolussus]

Iron Man 3 did great!

In my opinion, no one can beat its domestic opening weekend numbers/worldwide opening weekend numbers until Avengers 2.

 

[Liam_H]

IM3 has good numbers but it's pretty much blown it's load in terms of big markets right off the bat. There not going to be that big push from china and what not down the road like other films have cause it's already happened. Considering nothing big opens for a couple of weeks, I predict IM3 will have some staying power at least untill Trek drops.

Not sure if this really matters if its going to push $800 million OS.

 

[Marvin]

what's it's international figure as of right now?

 

[Liam_H]

I believe slightly over $500 million OS.

 

[Project862006]

imo only catching fire will top im3's gross and it has potential to do so

HG made more WW than im and im2 that says something imo the sequel will do even bigger

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Catching Fire won't have the Avengers effect.

It might be like Spider-man where it reaches it's domestic peak early in the franchise history.

Yes the OS will go up. But nothing jaw dropping like IM3.

 

[mclay18]

Catching Fire won't have the Avengers effect.

It might be like Spider-man where it reaches it's domestic peak early in the franchise history.

Yes the OS will go up. But nothing jaw dropping like IM3.

You're probably right. I do think the OW for Catching Fire might be lower than The Hunger Games, even if it's as well received as the first one.

 

[Marvin]

I believe slightly over $500 million OS.

That's def more than the previous installments but it would be a much more impressive number had they not released in the Asian and some Eastern market's already.

I curious to see where it lands on the totals list. Somewhere around TF3 no doubt. TF had to deal with Harry Potter's finale in it's second week(which was stiff competition than either Bat film) and then cap and a few other things. IM3 has Trek two weeks from now. Same audience but Trek's no Potter.
Then it has Fast and Hangover and then AE.
However it's overseas aren't going to get some 4th quarter boost the way things like skyfall and TF have.

I'm very curious.

 

[matrix_ghost]

imo only catching fire will top im3's gross and it has potential to do so

HG made more WW than im and im2 that says something imo the sequel will do even bigger

Yes but the domestic gross for HG was much higher then IM1 and IM2 whereas the foreign gross is actually the same ( IM1) and lower ( IM2).
I seriously have my doubts if HG will expand big time outside north america just as Potter did.

 

[matrix_ghost]

That's def more than the previous installments but it would be a much more impressive number had they not released in the Asian and some Eastern market's already.

I curious to see where it lands on the totals list. Somewhere around TF3 no doubt. TF had to deal with Harry Potter's finale in it's second week(which was stiff competition than either Bat film) and then cap and a few other things. IM3 has Trek two weeks from now. Same audience but Trek's no Potter.
Then it has Fast and Hangover and then AE.
However it's overseas aren't going to get some 4th quarter boost the way things like skyfall and TF have.

I'm very curious.

Try pretty much all of europe and asia.
I saw IM3 about two weeks ago here in Holland.

 

[Liam_H]

That's def more than the previous installments but it would be a much more impressive number had they not released in the Asian and some Eastern market's already.

I curious to see where it lands on the totals list. Somewhere around TF3 no doubt. TF had to deal with Harry Potter's finale in it's second week(which was stiff competition than either Bat film) and then cap and a few other things. IM3 has Trek two weeks from now. Same audience but Trek's no Potter.
Then it has Fast and Hangover and then AE.
However it's overseas aren't going to get some 4th quarter boost the way things like skyfall and TF have.

I'm very curious.

Unless the audience collapses for this movie its flying way past TF3 for #5 all time. It won't reach DH2 but that doesn't matter.

 

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Top 10 worldwide

1. Iron Man 3 $711,2 million
2. The Croods $508,8 million
3. Oz The Great and Powerful $485,1 million
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation $355,9 million
5. A Good Day to Die Hard $302,5 million
6. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $223,9 million
7. Oblivion $223,1 million
8. Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons $207,9 million
9. Lost in Thailand $202,6 million
10. Jack the Giant Slayer $196,4 million