"300" Box Office Prediction Thread

[jnpoe]

How much has this movie made so far?US?Internationally?

Domestic: $85,017,803 92.9%+ Foreign: $6,500,000 7.1%= Worldwide: $91,517,803

But keep in mind only the US number is updated , the 6,5 is from the weekend

 

[dawhistleblower]

Went to see it on IMAX again tonight! After my third time i am done... but the good news is that it was SOLD OUT until 12:15am and people kept going through the door and looking for tickets and they had to put a door man up to encourage people to use the KIOSK for IMAX tickets for the following days just so it wouldnt sell out on them!

and i mean they were TURNING THEM AWAY!!!! Every 2 minutes someone was coming through the door looking for tickets and being turned away!


CAN ANYONE SAY "SPRING BREAK" WEEKEND?

 

[Darth Elektra]

Im seeing the film again tommorrow for the third time.

 

[Arkady Rossovich]

It was asked before..but i was also curious to see the answer.

"What do the Greeks think of 300?"

 

[Nivek]

I'm taking a group of friends to see this over the weekend sometime. This will be my 2nd time seeing it.

 

[dpbrave84]

It was asked before..but i was also curious to see the answer.

"What do the Greeks think of 300?"

im acually greek, and i loved every minute of it, but i also went in knowing it was based of the novel(which i read).by the way im a theatre manager, and we are usually pretty slow on the weekdays, i have never in my time working there had lines around te building b4 we even opened on weekdays, only unless it was a wednesday opening release for a movie. its crazy, i have seen it 3 times myself by the way

 

[jnpoe]

Holy **** , And i still gotta wait until March 30 , to See The Glory

 

[Advanced Dark]

300 tracking for a 65% drop this weekend. Made about 9 million today:

Zack Snyder’s 300 (Warner Bros) will suffer a less than heroic 65% drop in its second weekend. After a $9 million Friday - passing $100 million domestic - the Spartan war epic is expected to deliver $25 million over the 3-day frame. That means that by Monday morning, 300 will have banked an epic $121.2 million.

The poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) continues to enjoy strong word-of-mouth, and the boomer ensemble comedy scored another $5 million on Friday, which should translate to a better-than-expected weekend gross of $18 million. That’s just a 35% drop for the Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy movie, and Hogs new total domestic gross will be $103.1 million.

I arrive at these Exclusive FantasyMoguls.com Early Friday and 3-Day Estimates by tracking raw data from key east coast locations and generating projections based on comparable historical titles. Those numbers are refined through conversations with key studio sources.

Three new films opened today with mixed results. The Sandra Bullock thriller Premonition (Sony) generated a solid $5.25 million opening day, and it will finish with an estimated 3-day of $15.2 million. If these numbers hold up, this will be the best Bullock opening since Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood debuted with $16.1 million in 2002. Premonition will enjoy a better opening than Two Weeks Notice ($14.3 million), Crash ($9.1 million), Miss Congeniality 2 ($14 million) and The Lake House ($13.6 million).

Universal’s killer doll movie Dead Silence opened with a very soft $2.25 million on Friday, and it will limp to a disappointing $5.9 million for the weekend. From James Wan and Leigh Wannell, the creative team behind the Saw films, this horror pic is neck-and-neck with holdover Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) in the 3-day estimates, and it is the latest 2007 bomb in the genre following disasters like The Hitcher, Primeval, Blood & Chocolate and The Abandoned, to name a few.

Chris Rock’s I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searchlight) is the biggest loser managing just $1.5 million on opening day putting it on-target for a $4.5 million weekend and a 6th place finish. Rock co-wrote and directed this film, and it is his 2nd stint as a director following 2003’s Head of State ($13.5 million opening - $38.1 million domestic). It may be back to supporting roles for the former Oscar host after this misfire.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $9 million
2. Premonition (Sony) – $5.25 million
3. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $5 million
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $2.25 million
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.5 million
6. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $1.5 million
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $1.3 million
8. Zodiac (Paramount) - $895,000
9. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $852,000
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $707,000

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $25 million
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $18 million
3. Premonition (Sony) – $15.2 million
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $5.9 million
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $5.8 million
6. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $4.5 million
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $4.3 million
8. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $3 million
9. Zodiac (Paramount) - $2.9 million
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $2.2 million

http://www.fantasymoguls.com

 

[blind_fury]

65% drop? That's harsh.

I say a 57% drop at the worst. Which would be at least a 30 million dollar weekend.

 

[Nivek]

Um, guys, it's still March. These numbers are awesome for this time of the year, and as far as 300 is concerned, all this money from this point on is Gravy, and it will still be #1.

 

[GL's Light]

Showbiz Data has the Friday estimate at $ 10.2 million. Even if the actual ends up at $ 9 million that would be highly unlikely to translate to a 65% drop for the weekend since second weekends typically have higher internal multipliers than opening weekends.

If SBD's estimate is accurate then we're likely looking at a second weekend drop in the range of 53-57%. If $ 9 million is the more accurate figure then the weekend drop is likely to be around 58-62%.

 

[jnpoe]

Domestic: $106,518,000 94.2%
+ Foreign: $6,500,000 5.8%


= Worldwide: $113,018,000

 

[Advanced Dark]

Tracking system veers off rails
Research tools could get tweaked
By IAN MOHR, DADE HAYESNew pics "300," "Ghost Rider" and "Wild Hogs" all have one thing in common: They far exceeded their "tracking numbers" -- the predictions of their weekend box office.
Those were the happy cases. But with other recent examples when tracking pumped up expectations, as was the case with "Snakes on a Plane," the studios are wondering just what is going on with one of their primary research tools.

"Studios and tracking services are not in touch with audiences," says one former studio distribution head. "They have always done research the same ways, using the same cities more or less. Tracking has become strictly a tool to give executives an excuse as well as a backup with their filmmakers. I think that the whole system needs to change or this will just happen over and over."

Even some tracking services admit that changes are in the offing, with some coming to the conclusion that the proliferation of entertainment choices and the continuing influence of the Web on word of mouth and movie habits have thrown traditional polling by telephone methods out of whack.

And the stakes are higher, now that the industry's research increasingly makes its way into the public sphere, whether through industry gossip or via media outlets and blogs that report on tracking numbers.

Even Joe Farrell, founder of the National Research Group and godfather of modern movie research, says it has come to the point that he hates when people refer to "the tracking."

He has often noted that there is tracking for men, women, African-Americans, teens and many other groups. "But people insist on referring to one number."

There are now three companies tracking moviegoing and predicting results. Some in the studios, who pay for the results, are troubled by recent discrepancies, when research projections were off by $10 million or more.

Farrell is now a producer at Disney and is no longer running NRG -- and new execs there are more vulnerable than ever to competition. NRG remains the dominant service, with a wide lead over MarketCast (which is owned by Variety's parent company, Reed Elsevier) and OTX. But the prospect of a more refined tool is certainly appealing to the congloms positioning their opening pics.

Tracking services are responding by working on new methodology, says OTX founder and CEO Shelley Zalis: "The marketplace is changing, and we all have to evolve our research methods. The world is changing, and the way people make decisions about their time is changing. We need to get some more ingredients into the cake."

The tenor of exhib-distrib relations was upbeat at last week's ShoWest confab in Vegas (a change from recent years and a reflection of a resurgent B.O. and optimism for the summer).

But the ebullience is shaded with uneasiness about tracking, since no one wants to be "Snakes on a Plane," which underperformed in a hothouse marketing environment last August.

"Everybody has access to the same numbers," says marketing vet Peter Adee, who recently joined Overture Films as prexy of theatrical marketing. "The trick is in the interpretation."

Making predictions of an opening weekend is a relatively inexact procedure, based on calling potential moviegoers at home. Trackers ask questions like, "Do you recognize any of these titles?" or "If you were to see a movie this weekend, which of these would it be?"

Critics of the process have charged that tracking firms only call people with landlines, ignoring many young people who only use cellphones, and that asking parents about their kids' viewing plans isn't always effective.

"Tracking is a tool, and it would be irresponsible for us or anyone else to ignore it, but it has to be used very carefully," Universal's Adam Fogelson says. The danger, he says, is when people who do not understand the nuances of tracking try to interpret it, pointing out his studio has a whole department trained to interpret such data.

Genres such as chick flicks, horror and comedy have been deemed "difficult to track."

Confusingly, studio execs say that B.O. on pics that really take off, such as "300" or "Borat," is also more difficult to predict than figuring tallies on a film that will wind up in the $15 million to $30 million range. And they add that tracking has changed over the years, amid more complicated market conditions, to become more of a tool rather than a hard-and-fast rule.

Just before the March 9 domestic bow of "300," 28% of respondents picked it as their first choice. That suggested a bow of $50 million or so. When the film reached a staggering $70 million, there was immediate scuttlebutt about why, especially when Warner execs swore they expected something in the $30 million range.

Of course, studios like to tamp down expectations, to avoid a film being labeled a "disappointment" even though its figures are huge. But even WB's rivals were expecting a lower bow, due to tracking results. More likely, however, simple momentum caused the "300's" bonanza, with fair weather and weak competish from other openers. Quite often, studio projections will fluctuate wildly during the weekend itself -- a boffo Friday will point to a huge weekend, then a soft Saturday afternoon will deflate projections again.

Aware of the dilemma, tracking companies are evaluating their options. "We are in a very vibrant market right now. We are in constant dialogue with our studio partners about ways to refine our service," said NRG's Howard Ballon and Kevin Yoder in a statement.

Zalis says it's time to step back and look at the bigger picture. "It should be about much more than whether people are going to the movies, and if they're going, what movie will they see. The trouble is, the industry is comfortable with the numbers they know and the measures they know. But then disparities happen and people wonder why.

"We're working toward research that doesn't just predict box office but actually gives a total picture of the consumer. All of their choices influence the other."

Variety

 

[Nivek]

So, much like political polling, these "guesses" should be taken with a grain of salt. No s**t.

 

[Fanticon]

Um, guys, it's still March. These numbers are awesome for this time of the year

and lets not forget its rated R...this is a huge success. drops and all.

 

[Nivek]

It's all over the media too, this is concidered a success, and it will be #1 again this weekend.

And it didn't even have a worldwide release yet either. If it did, it would be pulling in over $100 million last weekend and this one.

 

[Darth Elektra]

300 makes $10,230,000 on Friday. Premonition comes in secont with, $6,315,000. Wild Hogs rounds out the third spot with $5,445,000.

 

[Advanced Dark]

So it'll make just under 30 for the weekend. About what Wild Hogs made in it's second weekend. Still good.

 

[GL's Light]

So it'll make just under 30 for the weekend.

It would have to score an unusually low second weekend internal multiplier to come in below $ 30 million. The most likely tally for this weekend is $ 31-33 million.

 

[dawhistleblower]

i am giddy!

 

[Advanced Dark]

It would have to score an unusually low second weekend internal multiplier to come in below $ 30 million. The most likely tally for this weekend is $ 31-33 million.

<H2 class=entry-header>STUDIO SOURCES: Snowstorm Depressing Friday Numbers?; '300' Under $30 mil; 'Premonition' w/$17.5; Killer Dolls $7 mil; Rock Pic Tanks

by Steve Mason

March 17, 2007

An East coast snowstorm is proving troublesome for the Hollywood studio execs who specialize in box office projections. Zack Snyder’s 300 (Warner Bros) scored just $10.3 million Friday – passing the $100 million mark – but my sources disagree about how that will translate to a 3-day figure. Late last night, I reported $25 million for the weekend and that exec is standing by his figure, but according to another studio honcho this morning, the nasty weather depressed Friday business and the picture will surge managing to hit $30 million. I suspect that the right answer is somewhere between the two, so I’ll call it $28 million as of this morning. That means that by Monday morning, 300 will have banked an epic $124.2 million.

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The poorly-reviewed Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) continues to enjoy strong word-of-mouth, and the boomer ensemble comedy scored another $5.4 million on Friday, which should add up to a better-than-expected weekend gross of $18 million. That’s just a 35% drop for the Travolta/Lawrence/Allen/Macy buddy movie, and Hogs new total domestic gross will be $103.1 million. Three new films opened Friday with mixed results. The Sandra Bullock thriller Premonition (Sony) generated a solid $6.3 million opening day, and it will finish with an estimated 3-day of $17.5 million. (As of last night, my sources had this picture at $15.2 million.) If these numbers hold up, this will be the best Bullock opening since Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood debuted with $16.1 million in 2002. Premonition will enjoy a better opening than Two Weeks Notice ($14.3 million), Crash ($9.1 million), Miss Congeniality 2 ($14 million) and The Lake House ($13.6 million). Universal’s killer doll movie Dead Silence opened with a relatively soft $2.85 million on Friday, and it will limp to a disappointing $7 million for the weekend. From James Wan and Leigh Wannell, the creative team behind the Saw films, this horror pic will finish just ahead of holdover Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) in the 3-day estimates, and it is the latest 2007 bomb in the genre following disasters like The Hitcher, Primeval, Blood & Chocolate and The Abandoned, to name a few. Chris Rock’s I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searchlight) is the biggest loser managing just $1.7 million on opening day putting it on-target for a $5.3 million weekend and a 6th place finish. Rock co-wrote and directed this film, and it is his 2nd stint as a director following 2003’s Head of State ($13.5 million opening - $38.1 million domestic). It may be back to supporting roles for the former Oscar host after this misfire.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $10.3 million
2. Premonition (Sony) – $6.3 million
3. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $5.4 million
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $2.85 million
5. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $1.7 million
6. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $1.5 million
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $1.3 million
8. Zodiac (Paramount) - $900,000
9. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $815,000
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $707,000
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. 300 (Warner Bros) - $28 million [$124.2 million cume]
2. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) - $18 million [$103.1 million cume]
3. Premonition (Sony) – $17.5 million [$17.5 million cume]
4. Dead Silence (Universal) – $7 million [$7 million cume]
5. Bridge To Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $5.8 million [$75.6 million cume]
6. I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searclight) - $5.3 million [$5.3 million cume]
7. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $4.2 million [$110.4 million cume]
8. Zodiac (Paramount) - $3 million [$28.8 million cume]
9. Norbit (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $2.9 million [$92.5 million cume]
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $2.1 million [$47.3 million cume]
On the PTA front, The Namesake (Fox Searchlight), directed by Mira Nair (Monsoon Wedding) and starring Kal Penn (Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle), is enjoying a strong expansion to 41 locations. The film, about an Indian man trying to reconcile his family’s cultural heritage with life in big city America, delivered a $4,181 PTA Friday, which should translate to just over $10,000 per for the weekend. 300 and Premonition should take the #2 and #3 spots for the weekend followed by IFC’s new film The Wind That Shakes the Barley starring Cillian Murphy.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 41 locations - $4,181 PTA
2. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,270 locations - $3,128 PTA
3. Premonition (Sony) – 2,831 locations - $2,231 PTA
4. The Wind That Shakes the Barley (IFC Films) – 15 locations - $2,317 PTA
5. La Vie En Rose (TVA Films) – 23 locations - $2,013 PTA
6. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) – 3,360 locations - $1,621 PTA
7. Dead Silence (Universal) – 1,803 locations - $1,665 PTA
8. American Cannibal (Lifesize Entertainment) – 2 locations - $1,499 PTA
9. Into Great Silence (Zeitgeist) – 5 locations - $1,435 PTA
10. Blockade (First Run/Icarus) – 1 locations - $1,170 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Namesake (Fox Searchlight) – 41 locations - $10,450 PTA
2. 300 (Warner Bros) – 3,270 locations - $8,562 PTA
3. Premonition (Sony) – 2,831 locations - $6,181 PTA
4. The Wind That Shakes the Barley (IFC Films) – 15 locations - $5,792 PTA
5. La Vie En Rose (TVA Films) – 23 locations - $5,515 PTA
6. Wild Hogs (Buena Vista) – 3,360 locations - $5,357 PTA
7. Dead Silence (Universal) – 1,803 locations - $3,882 PTA
8. American Cannibal (Lifesize Entertainment) – 2 locations - $3,747 PTA
9. Into Great Silence (Zeitgeist) – 5 locations - $3,587 PTA
10. Blockade (First Run/Icarus) – 1 locations -

</H2>
www.fantasymoguls.com

 

[GL's Light]

Box Office Mojo has the weekend estimate up:

$ 31.185 million for 300.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Awsome!

 

[jnpoe]

Domestic: $127,473,000 95.1%
+ Foreign: $6,500,000 4.9%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

= Worldwide: $133,973,000

 

[ultimatefan]

A 56% drop is acceptable, given that the movie opened way beyond expectations and had tuesday night screenings. The movie´s a huge hit for the studio.