Aquaman Box Office Thread

[NHawk19]

DC's edgy designs haven't gone over well. It has no really good will, or momentum going in to it. He wasn't a stand-out in JL. It has decent competition.

I'm going 500M WW.

 

[nyyarod]

I'm also going with 500M.

 

[TheScarecrow]

I hope it can outgross JL domestic and worldwide, leading to a trilogy and inspire them to do more solo films of classic jl members that would lead to Justice IIeague.

I don't think it needs to outgross JL to do that, although it would help.

What it needs is a solid reception and to show that a sequel can generate excitement - think Batman Begins, which did not make much money at all.

 

[Milk Tray Guy]

What it needs is a solid reception and to show that a sequel can generate excitement - think Batman Begins, which did not make much money at all.

I would be very happy with that state of affairs.

 

[Creo]

Around $400 million. There's not a lot of good will for the DCEU, Aquaman isn't terribly well known (outside of being the butt of a number of Family Guy jokes), and is releasing against too many other movies.

 

[JOE]

I'm thinking JL's numbers at best unless the reviews are RAVING and the word gets around quick. Otherwise I can see this landing under 600M unfortunately.

 

[harlequinade]

Hopefully at least 500 mil but next promos will have to wow the audience


Nanny's second trailer coming very soon....

 

[OzzMosiz]

$140m US
$230m Rest of world

$370m worldwide.

 

[Micromind]

250 mil. in US, 400 mil overseas, 650 mil worldwide.

 

[seriesofdreams]

As it stands, Aquaman is opening the week of Mary Poppins Returns and the same weekend as Bumblebee and Battle Angel. That's potentially rough competition along with holdover and the usual awards contenders.

I'll cautiously stick with $200 DOM and $675M Overall.

 

[unholyrevenger]

It'll do Non-Tony Stark MCU Numbers at best.

 

[marcvader]

I'm going optimistic and overestimating to $700.

 

[Juan1193]

I'm getting strong Wonder Woman vibes from these Aquaman box office predictions. I'll go ahead and predict it'll land in the 700M range.

As for competition, well Poppins is a nobody in Latin America/Asia, Transformers is in as bad a place (arguably worse place than DC Films), and the other two films have ZERO hype what so ever.

 

[Juan1193]

I'm going optimistic and overestimating to $700.

Only $700? Lol That would make it the biggest flop in Hollywood history

 

[Iceman]

As it stands, Aquaman is opening the week of Mary Poppins Returns and the same weekend as Bumblebee and Battle Angel. That's potentially rough competition along with holdover and the usual awards contenders.

I'll cautiously stick with $200 DOM and $675M Overall.

Yeah, no need for all those films to open so close to each other. They will all be competing for screens on their debut.

 

[Finarfiniel]

It'll do Non-Tony Stark MCU Numbers at best.

That's a bit of a broad statement. Black Panther is a non-Stark MCU movie and made over a billion. GotG 2 and Thor: Ragnarok are both non-Stark MCU movies and made in the $800-$900 million range. I don't see Aquaman making anywhere close to those numbers, I'm thinking it'll be more in the $550-$650 million range, mostly because of the sheer volume of competition it's up against. If it's really good and gets excellent reviews and WOM, maybe it could breach the $700 million mark.

 

[Juan1193]

That's a bit of a broad statement. Black Panther is a non-Stark MCU movie and made over a billion. GotG 2 and Thor: Ragnarok are both non-Stark MCU movies and made in the $800-$900 million range. I don't see Aquaman making anywhere close to those numbers, I'm thinking it'll be more in the $550-$650 million range, mostly because of the sheer volume of competition it's up against. If it's really good and gets excellent reviews and WOM, maybe it could breach the $700 million mark.

Both of those films are sequels. Black Panther is the only outlier in an otherwise stable MCU box office trend.

DCEU has no trend though. Their box office is all over the place ( 2 in 600M range, 2 in 800M range, and another in the 700M range).

 

[seriesofdreams]

That's a bit of a broad statement. Black Panther is a non-Stark MCU movie and made over a billion. GotG 2 and Thor: Ragnarok are both non-Stark MCU movies and made in the $800-$900 million range. I don't see Aquaman making anywhere close to those numbers, I'm thinking it'll be more in the $550-$650 million range, mostly because of the sheer volume of competition it's up against. If it's really good and gets excellent reviews and WOM, maybe it could breach the $700 million mark.

On point with Black Panther althought it's odd you mentioned GOTG Vol. 2. GOTG Vol. 1, however, is also not a sequel. The non-Stark MCU movie statement was broad and I really don't see it touching the movies you mentioned. Guardians 1 is possible, though ($775M still a tall order).


The reported budget of $160M is actually quite good for Aquaman. If that's the case and there isn't any additional CGI tweakings, then a $600M-$700M would be quite a win. Quite the win especially if it receives good reviews. I'm optimistic as of now.

 

[Greenlite]

If its budget is 150M then break-even (Deadline calculation method) would be like 450M rougly so anything over 500M is a good result for AM. 600M-700M would be cherry on top.

Anyone know what happened the last time 3 blockbuster/family affairs clash in the same week during Christmas period?

The legs should be quite good for everyone unless it critically bombs and I can see AM having a much higher non-US intake/OS intake overall, it could be the type of movie OS audiences like - family adventure/treasure hunt/fantasy, they need to market it right in different regions

 

[Iceman]

The Stark Iron Man movies also didn’t make anywhere close to a billion (even if adjusted) without an Avengers boost. More importantly Iron Man 2 made about the same as IM 1. Iron Man is not a franchise like Avengers that can make $1.4B with a middling entry and $2B when everything comes together. Stark is the star but without that Avengers boost he wasn’t tracking for huge overseas numbers, just very good domestic.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

883 ww.

 

[Finarfiniel]

On point with Black Panther althought it's odd you mentioned GOTG Vol. 2. GOTG Vol. 1, however, is also not a sequel. The non-Stark MCU movie statement was broad and I really don't see it touching the movies you mentioned. Guardians 1 is possible, though ($775M still a tall order).

That's exactly what I meant. The poster I was replying to never mentioned whether he/she was referring to first movies or sequels, they simply said that Aquaman should do as well as a non-Stark MCU movie. I was just pointing out that was a rather broad statement to make, considering that three very recent non-Stark MCU movies have made in the $800 million to $1 billion + range. I totally agree that it's faulty to compare Aquaman to a sequel in an already established and successful franchise, but that's not the point I was making.

 

[seriesofdreams]

That's exactly what I meant. The poster I was replying to never mentioned whether he/she was referring to first movies or sequels, they simply said that Aquaman should do as well as a non-Stark MCU movie. I was just pointing out that was a rather broad statement to make, considering that three very recent non-Stark MCU movies have made in the $800 million to $1 billion + range. I totally agree that it's faulty to compare Aquaman to a sequel in an already established and successful franchise, but that's not the point I was making.

Ah, I see your point now. Thanks for elaborating.

 

[writer0327]

I'm adjusting my prediction to $750M ww. I think Christmas releases are the thing now.

 

[FunkMiller]

If (and it’s a big if) the reports from test screenings are in any way accurate, Aquaman is looking to be a good, but not great, movie. So, lets take another ‘good, not great’ comic book movie from this year - Antman and The Wasp - and see if we can extrapolate anything from that movie’s box office.

AATW took 545 million worldwide. It came off the back of Infinity War, Antman’s appearance in Civil War, and his own successful first movie.

Aquaman will come off the back of Justice League, which performed badly, and Aquaman’s first appearance in the maligned Batman V Superman.

If Aquaman is good, not great - and given the horrible track record of the films that came before it - I’m thinking it’s WW box office ceiling is 450-475 million at the most. It won’t have the goodwill that drove AATW to plus 500 million - and in fact it will suffer from its association with the previous DCEU movies, so that estimate feels about right to me.