BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Since Marvel morphed Cap 3 into a complete Cap v Ironman thing (and no I don't doubt Cap is the star of the film) featuring Spider-Man, I think the March date for BvS is smarter than ever now. It beats a film with a similar premise to the punch by a month. Coming out after Civil War would have made BvS look like old hat IMHO. Don't get me wrong I still think it would have made a crap load but it's better for WB to not be more behind than it is.

 

[matt47]

No doubt ISS, it kinda bugs me that Cap 2 was riding all on RDJr, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[mithravishnu]

Since Marvel morphed Cap 3 into a complete Cap v Ironman thing (and no I don't doubt Cap is the star of the film) featuring Spider-Man, I think the March date for BvS is smarter than ever now. It beats a film with a similar premise to the punch by a month. Coming out after Civil War would have made BvS look like old hat IMHO. Don't get me wrong I still think it would have made a crap load but it's better for WB to not be more behind than it is.

 

[queendarkness12]

At least, DC will be the one setting the standard this time, when it comes to the big movies.

I think competition with Warcraft will have to be a factor.

 

[dalonewolf]

At least, DC will be the one setting the standard this time, when it comes to the big movies.

I think competition with Warcraft will have to be a factor.

War craft will not be a problem that movie really needs to think about moving 2 weeks up or 2 weeks back because bvs is gonna crush it

 

[Marvin]

People give the Marvel Studio films such a pass for their whimsical, light hearted nature. As opposed to treating things seriously. It's no more evident than the RT, and critic scores of CAWS and GOTG. They're easy watching, easy consumption, like comfort fast food ... so they're not held to higher standards. Thus, higher scores.

I think BvS coming out in March at first seemed odd to me, but then it hit me as a stroke of genius.

It gets a HUGE head start on all summer blockbusters. People are going to see a film with Batman and Superman individually regardless, now together? Releasing it at a time with no competition gives it the opportunity to make huge sums of cash.

One of the biggest lessons WB can learn from marvel is how to pick a date that veers away from solid competition for it's how you are allowed to perform in your following weeks that really gets you 'there'.
From Ironman to it's sequel to Avengers to TWS and GotG more recently, their bigger films were luckier in this way than their under performers.

BvS is going to open big regardless. MOS's opening is often undersold but it was actually massively impressive, the down fall was that competition in the following weeks ironically, the second in particular. The very last Batman film opened at 160 something and that wasn't with any 3D inflation and it had that theater shooting to deal with, take those two crutches away and you are looking at a film that no doubt opened higher than the last Ironman(coming directly off avengers starring RDJ). Lastly and something else marvel has been doing well is enticing people to not miss out on the moving and shaking of their universe building. I personally even watched the pilot of AOS just so I could keep up with their universe story. People will be interested in seeing where this is going or how it all starts(something they undersold in mos).

BvS will open big regardless, but now with an entire spring to dominate, it won't suffer the same fate as the last film but rather extrapolate on the success of things like TWS imo. Avoiding competition is the new name of the game. Cameron taught this lesson years ago but it's only now I'm seeing it used by other big films.

 

[Pickleweasel]

War craft will not be a problem that movie really needs to think about moving 2 weeks up or 2 weeks back because bvs is gonna crush it

If Warcraft moves 2 weeks back it would be on the same weekend as BvS

Warcraft is a non issue.

 

[Jekecy]

Any film would be an issue on the hypothetical that BvS gets middling/bad word of mouth, while the next film over gets an insanely good reception. Especially in the Spring and Summer, people are looking for a reason to go out. They're not going to stick to a movie if others are recommending something else.

 

[dalonewolf]

If Warcraft moves 2 weeks back it would be on the same weekend as BvS

Warcraft is a non issue.

Well 2 weeks before bvs will be it's best bet
This movie will be number one for a while maybe 3-4 weeks in the row with no competition that seems likely

 

[queendarkness12]

Warcraft could a good alternative for people, if tickets for BVS are sold out.

There might be some people, who would like to see a fantasy movie instead.

Warcraft can have it's two weeks to make it's money and stay at the top of the box office, until BVS comes out.

 

[mclay18]

At least, DC will be the one setting the standard this time, when it comes to the big movies.

I think competition with Warcraft will have to be a factor.

I don't think Universal and Legendary expected BVS to move to late March, but they should be fine. There's two weeks for them to make some coin. It's not like in 2008 where Hellboy 2 opened a week prior to TDK and took a massive hit in its second weekend.

Although looking at how gangbusters American Sniper did... it performed like a summer blockbuster in mid-January ($330M domestic without 3D)... makes me wish WB took a chance and moved BVS to MLK weekend (January 15, 2016). That way, WB beats even Deadpool to the punch.

But March is still a great spot for this movie.

 

[Pickleweasel]

If it is lucky Warcraft will make $15 million the weekend BvS opens.

Warcraft is not an issue.

 

[Marvin]

Game based movies historically suck both in quality and performance.
With WB's luck however..

 

[Pickleweasel]

It will be its 3rd weekend. Warcraft isn't going to be doing 80 million in it's 3rd weekend. It isn't going to be doing 30 million in its 3rd weekend. If it does 20 million in its 3rd weekend Id be flabbergasted.

Divergent will be more of a problem than Warcraft and Divergent isn't going to be a problem.

 

[mclay18]

It will be its 3rd weekend. Warcraft isn't going to be doing 80 million in it's 3rd weekend. It isn't going to be doing 30 million in its 3rd weekend. If it does 20 million in its 3rd weekend Id be flabbergasted.

Divergent will be more of a problem than Warcraft and Divergent isn't going to be a problem.

Divergent Series: Allegiant - Part 1 is aimed at a completely different audience (young women), it's not going to overlap with BVS' target demographic.

 

[fake]

It will be its 3rd weekend. Warcraft isn't going to be doing 80 million in it's 3rd weekend. It isn't going to be doing 30 million in its 3rd weekend. If it does 20 million in its 3rd weekend Id be flabbergasted.

Divergent will be more of a problem than Warcraft and Divergent isn't going to be a problem.

Allegiant Part 1 will open really low. Part 1's of a book split have been awful in terms of openings as audiences don't turn out for half of a story. Deathly Hallows 1, Breaking Dawn 1 and Mockingjay 1 all ended up being the lowest opening and lowest gross in their respective series. Kung Fu Panda 3 will open to around what part 2 did. Warcraft will be at around 15-20M in its 3rd weekend even if it opens to 100M (taking a 65% second weekend drop and a 50% 3rd weekend drop).

 

[Jekecy]

Divergent will be more of a problem than Warcraft and Divergent isn't going to be a problem.

Divergent has a piss poor reputation, even amongst its own fanbase.

If Duncan makes a Nolan-like transition from indie to blockbuster, especially with a monstrous property like Warcraft, it's going to be an unexpected sleeper hit.

This isn't really about what's coming out in proximity. No matter what it is, ultimately BvS just needs to live up to its own hype. If it does, the success will take care of itself. There's simply no other project which can overtake a project decades in the making and actually delivers.

 

[Pickleweasel]

It will be its 3rd weekend. Warcraft isn't going to be doing 80 million in it's 3rd weekend. It isn't going to be doing 30 million in its 3rd weekend. If it does 20 million in its 3rd weekend Id be flabbergasted.

Divergent will be more of a problem than Warcraft and Divergent isn't going to be a problem.

Divergent Series: Allegiant - Part 1 is aimed at a completely different audience (young women), it's not going to overlap with BVS' target demographic.

.......

 

[Val_Zod]

Nothing less than 1bill. This film will have zero competition for 4 weeks atleast, and WB is top notch in it's marketing. If this film is mediocre, I expect it to just barely make 1billion, but if it's fantastic, and as entertaining as the first Avengers, I definitely see it outgrossing the first Avengers. One of the reasons MOS didn't make as much as it did is because of the OS numbers. Now, however, they got Batman, who is quite popular overseas, and I definitely see WB trying to make this film look as action packed as it can, and have Batman use alot of gadgets and tech (Something China seems enamored with).

 

[Nemeres]

IF there actually is a tendency brewing towards superhero fatigue, BVS vs Warcraft could let that show. Warcraft is no Edge of Tomorrow or some original movie underdog, it's a huge brand name that's been popular for a good while. Universal will give it a huge marketing push, that old LOTR fever could come rushing back out of nowhere... They won't be competing directly, but they will be competing. They're only 2 weeks apart and they're appealing to the same crowd.

That possibility, along with both Civil War and X-Men Apocalypse coming out less than 2 months later, put a damper on BVS's chances of 1 billion, I think.

 

[rockandrollsoul]

IF there actually is a tendency brewing towards superhero fatigue, BVS vs Warcraft could let that show. Warcraft is no Edge of Tomorrow or some original movie underdog, it's a huge brand name that's been popular for a good while. Universal will give it a huge marketing push, that old LOTR fever could come rushing back out of nowhere... They won't be competing directly, but they will be competing. They're only 2 weeks apart and they're appealing to the same crowd.

That possibility, along with both Civil War and X-Men Apocalypse coming out less than 2 months later, put a damper on BVS's chances of 1 billion, I think.

Personally, I think your way off. I doubt Warcraft is going to effect BvS and 6 weeks of box office domination could be huge if it has good word of mouth.

 

[Noctis]

isn't Kung Fu Panda 3 opening just a week before BvS? that sounds like it could be a major contender in that weeks Box Office.

 

[Juha Bach]

isn't Kung Fu Panda 3 opening just a week before BvS? that sounds like it could be a major contender in that weeks Box Office.

In the overseas market perhaps but in the domestic marktet, i dont think so.

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Nothing less than 1bill. This film will have zero competition for 4 weeks atleast, and WB is top notch in it's marketing. If this film is mediocre, I expect it to just barely make 1billion, but if it's fantastic, and as entertaining as the first Avengers, I definitely see it outgrossing the first Avengers. One of the reasons MOS didn't make as much as it did is because of the OS numbers. Now, however, they got Batman, who is quite popular overseas, and I definitely see WB trying to make this film look as action packed as it can, and have Batman use alot of gadgets and tech (Something China seems enamored with).

I can't stand these constant comparisons with Marvel films, which aren't even that good.

 

[mithravishnu]

I am expecting 1 billion as minimum. Even $999.million will disappoint.